#26 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#101 » by No-more-rings » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:57 pm

E-Balla wrote:What? If anything THIS is the era for Chuck. No one plays defense anymore. Look at the superstars right now. Outside of Giannis and Embiid who plays defense? LeBron? Harden? Dame? Jokic? Steph? Kawhi?

Chuck was 6-7 and not 6-5 and he had long ass arms. You don't play with the top of your head, Chuck wasn't undersized at all and that's why he's the best interior finisher in league history. According to Dipper13 in 27 games he tracked from 93 Chuck was 81% in the restricted area and 66% in the paint.


Jokic and kawhi were at least average overall with Kawhi having ample ability to turn it up in the playoffs, we've been over that part. Dame isn't on the level of the others so i won't go there, and i'm not saying Barkley is hurt on offense, but yeah i think he's a large negative on D, he'd have to exert way more energy into it and i don't think he'd be up for that challenge. The game is spaced out way more, and him defending on the perimeter closing out on shooters isn't gonna work. He'll get blown by/shot out from quicker smaller guards, and he isn't tall enough to contest stretch 4s/5s. If Barkley's to have an impact as big or bigger on O like he did then he'd have to pass way more, scoring 25 on 66 ts% from inside buckets and mid range isn't going to produce elite offenses.

Sorry, but i think he'd be a joke on defense today, he already admitted he didn't try on that end and that's not going to change with teams bombing 3s from everywhere.


E-Balla wrote:Kawhi ain't falling out the top 30 I don't know why you'd think he is. He's already getting votes and discussion and we have 4 more spots. He's undeniably in everyone's HM in some for. 2016 Kawhi is next up for my top 3 if someone I'm voting for gets in.


Barkley and Cp3 are for sure going ahead, then after that i don't know it's up in the air, all depends how the guys voting for those 2 will vote.



E-Balla wrote:As far as Harden goes make an argument for him if you think he deserves to be top 40 and needs discussion. His supporters haven't mentioned his negatives at all, you're not drumming up support for him that way. Personally I'd put him closer to D. Rose/Iverson than any other MVP since 2000. And that's peak Harden, not 2017-19 Harden who homerized his game.

It's hard to put him over plenty of SGs knowing I'd take them over Harden in a heartbeat if I wanted a ring (like Reggie Miller).

Have i not made an argument in other threads? The argument against him is the impact stuff(which he isn't even bad at anyway), which i don't take as gospel. He has the numbers, and the success to go with it. And anyone with 2 eyes can see how much easier he makes it for teammates, CP3 of all people who's getting voted in before Harden, had his most success next to Harden and Harden had just as much or more without Paul. At some point, i can't take discussion revolving Harden with you seriously, when you think he's basically Ai/Rose level. I think you're so annoyed with the way he plays it clouds your objectivity.

And you can say "well his team is stacked", but they wouldn't be what they are without him.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#102 » by E-Balla » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:57 pm

freethedevil wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
freethedevil wrote: :o

Lol, make a case. You might just westbrook me again.

I have a post about 2016 Kawhi on the last page. Unless you're saying you wanna hear 2016 Kawhi vs 2019 Giannis because that'll be fun to type up and it might clarify where I need to put Giannis at for me as I'm working through the logic in my head.

And damn I keep writing off this tier 3 PG post...

2016 kawhi vs 2019 giannis would be cool. That said, 'd like to see elaboration regarding kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan? And his man defense was nice, but how about his rim protection, help defense, ect?

Also, you say he was a decent playmaker based on like a few great passes? How frequently did he create, how many tunrovers, turnover percentage, assist percentage ect.

Image

:lol: I got you bro.

kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan?

Easily. Duncan in 2016 was on his last legs and only played about 1500 minutes, only 38% of the team's total minutes. Everything they did on that end relied on the fact that the opposing team's best option could not score 1 on 1. At that point it only took everyone being where they needed to be on the court to dominate and with Danny, LMA, Duncan, Slo Mo, Diaw, and West you don't have to worry about them getting lost too often. Danny is more than good enough to lock up most team's 2nd options (again not OKC, so KD did work on him while Kawhi checked Russ) so opposing offenses had no chance of scoring without 2 ATG superstars on the team because that first superstar was getting clamped up no matter what.

but how about his rim protection,


Great question! Kawhi was the highest rated non-big rim protector that played over 41 games. He held opponents to -8.7% shooting inside of 6 feet and among perimeter players that were good defenders (so not including guys like Jabari that teams picked on) he contested more shots than everyone but KD (who's a 7 footer), Danny Green (2nd most prolific shot blocker under 6-6 ever), and Justise Winslow (surprising TBH because I never noticed his rim protection but he's borderline All D).

help defense,

So we've already talked about his rim protection, which is one part of help defense, but his ability to swarm and play passing lanes was elite too. NBA.com didn't track in the regular season but in the playoffs Kawhi averaged 3.3 deflections per game, which is good enough to rank top 10 most years and he was 12th in steals per game in the regular season.

ect.

I guess rebounding is all that's left? Well his 6 defensive boards per night ranked high at his position but with Boban, Duncan, LMA, West, etc. manning the paint the numbers he got paled in comparison to how great he was on the boards. Kawhi's solid and strong as hell and when he anchors himself he's not moving. He led the team in DRB% on/off making a slightly bigger impact than Duncan on the team's DRB% (+3 for Kawhi, +2.8 for Tim) and a way larger impact than anyone else in the rotation (Danny Green at +1.9 was 3rd place). They were the 3rd best rebounding team in the league too. Kawhi's whole career he's been one of the top rebounders at SF and he's 1st among fulltime SFs in postseason TRB% since he entered the league (minimum of 20 games played).

All that said he's elite at ALL facets of defense.

Also, you say he was a decent playmaker based on like a few great passes? How frequently did he create, how many tunrovers, turnover percentage, assist percentage ect.

I wasn't saying because of those passes, they were just good examples of his playmaking. Overall he was average at playmaking and creating opportunities for others. Still it was a small part of his game. He was mostly a spot up shooter, cutter, and isolation player for San Antonio offensively. Pop probably felt he was best utilized in that role. Mainly what he did well playmaking wise was not hold the ball long, not turn the ball over, and make the occasional good pass.

Giannis vs Kawhi coming in another post soon I gotta get something done for work.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#103 » by E-Balla » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:07 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:Interesting, but highly contentious, counterpoint. I think it is pretty difficult to definitively claim Westbrook would have performed as well as he did had Durant not drawn primary defensive attention (when it came to scoring, at least). But I am nowhere near enough of a Curry or Durant supporter to care much about pushing against it.

Also, I think the general consensus on Harden's peak favours these past two years. Someone who is more invested in whether 2018/19 Harden was the better player can handle that one, though.

I'm notoriously low on Harden around here. I just don't see it at all with him personally. I'd say he's the player all time I'm furthest from the consensus on because every time I watch him I don't see anything others claim to see. People claim his defense got better and he's not a space cadet still, I don't see it. People claim he's an elite playmaker that that he's just not only great at making basic reads like a great spread system QB that tanks in a pro style system where you need to make better reads (think Jared Goff - accurate as hell when he knows what to do with the ball but lost at figuring out what he needs to do), I don't see it.

His scoring is the one area I think I see eye to eye with the consensus. Highly valuable when he doesn't turn the ball over, but a large part of his effectiveness is referees and they call games different in the playoffs which leads to him having the 2nd largest drop in postseason production among stars in league history. Overall he's great, but he's just not this consistent strong MVP level player he's painted as. Maybe a borderline MVP level guy most seasons.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#104 » by E-Balla » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:21 pm

No-more-rings wrote:Jokic and kawhi were at least average overall with Kawhi having ample ability to turn it up in the playoffs, we've been over that part.

Yeah you know I strongly disagree with Jokic, and I agree Kawhi can turn it on but it doesn't change the fact he went half speed on D through the regular season.

Dame isn't on the level of the others so i won't go there, and i'm not saying Barkley is hurt on offense, but yeah i think he's a large negative on D, he'd have to exert way more energy into it and i don't think he'd be up for that challenge. The game is spaced out way more, and him defending on the perimeter closing out on shooters isn't gonna work. He'll get blown by/shot out from quicker smaller guards, and he isn't tall enough to contest stretch 4s/5s.

The best defensive player of this era is a PF smaller than Chuck... We've seen Draymond on interviews with Chuck and while they haven't stood next to each other Chuck looks bigger than Draymond with a fuller frame (that said he's old and fat so that could explain the size difference there). There's more players with his physical profile in the league now than ever!

If Barkley's to have an impact as big or bigger on O like he did then he'd have to pass way more, scoring 25 on 66 ts% from inside buckets and mid range isn't going to produce elite offenses.

Giannis led a top 5 offense and is a worse midrange shooter, 3 point shooter, scorer, and passer than Chuck. Jokic was the same percentage from deep last year as Chuck was in 93 when he led the #1 offense...

Sorry, but i think he'd be a joke on defense today, he already admitted he didn't try on that end and that's not going to change with teams bombing 3s from everywhere.

At this point I gotta ask, have you ever seen Charles Barkley play? Are you assuming he was some plodding oaf? Are you assuming he was too small to play big? Seriously these statements are becoming more and more confusing.

You realize you're talking about one of the 6 most impressive athletes in league history (Chuck, Bron, Nate, Shaq, Wilt, Zion) right? This guy:



He has that many amazing feats of athleticism in ONE GAME. Quite frankly logic that applies to everyone else ever doesn't apply to him. He's just different. It's not like there were other players of his ilk in the league before him either. It's hard for you to imagine him playing in 2019 the same way it was hard for you to imagine a player averaging a triple double again 5 years ago. The same way it was hard to imagine a player like Barkley ever existing in 1984.

He was a slashing SF while at the same time being a physically imposing finishing big.

Have i not made an argument in other threads?

You made an argument covering what you thought were his strengths. No mention of his criticisms. Westbrook probably wouldn't be in if I didn't address his two main criticisms in my post for him (postseason level of play, not being able to fit in on great squads). Everyone knows what guys can do and what their positives are (for the recent guys at least). You need to convince people their flaws and weaknesses are either not true, or not enough to effect his overall success.

The argument against him is the impact stuff(which he isn't even bad at anyway), which i don't take as gospel. He has the numbers, and the success to go with it.

He has less success than everyone getting votes outside of McAdoo. Less success than Reggie Miller.

And anyone with 2 eyes can see how much easier he makes it for teammates,

Given those same two eyes can't read numbers and never watch those players WITHOUT Harden on the court.

CP3 of all people who's getting voted in before Harden, had his most success next to Harden and Harden had just as much or more without Paul.

Going to mention he had as much or more success while playing next to numbers 24 and 25 on this list?

At some point, i can't take discussion revolving Harden with you seriously, when you think he's basically Ai/Rose level. I think you're so annoyed with the way he plays it clouds your objectivity.

I think you're so enamored with his scoring efficiency it clouds yours. My argument against Harden has long been, "if someone had the same statistical profile in impact stats, way less turnovers, and a proportionately lower TS%, they'd never be seen as a top 3 player." I value missed shots over turnovers, most people don't even pay attention to turnovers because they see them as opportunities and not a loss of possession with the other team gaining what's statistically the most efficient type of possession outside of a possession off an ORB. If Harden had more average TOV% numbers and a 58 TS% instead of his usual 61-62 TS% he'd be seen as a worse player despite not being any more effective.

My favorite player to compare to Harden for this reason is Brandon Roy. Roy was just as effective as Harden ever was offensively in the regular season but he was better on defense. Roy just happened to play the exact opposite game as Harden which meant he didn't get amazing numbers and because of that even around here Harden has a reputation as better than Roy (this also helps me introduce Roy to the project, because he needs to be). Still when you look at 17 Harden vs 09 Roy here's what you have:

The Blazers were a +5.6 offense and -0.5 defense.
The Rockets were a +5.9 offense and +0.2 defense.

The Blazers won 54 games and the Rockets won 55.

The Blazers had a +9.0 net rating with Roy on the court (he had a +11.6 on/off and a +13.6 offensive on/off).
The Rockets had a +6.7 net rating with Harden on the court (he had a +3.7 on/off and a +8.5 offensive on/off).

The Blazers had a 114.5 ORTG with Roy on the floor.
The Rockets had a 115.6 ORTG with Harden on the floor (in a slightly more offense friendly era).

Roy was 20th in PI RAPM and in combined 08-11 RAPM (which includes an injury year and a year before he became a star) he's 41st.
Harden was 40th in NPI RAPM and in combined 17-19 RAPM he's 21st.

The Blazers had the 13th slowest pace in NBA history with a 86.6.
The Rockets were 3rd in pace with a 100.0.

Roy had a +2.9 rTS% but had a 6.6 adjusted TOV% and a 4.4 ORB%. Thanks to his style which limited turnovers arguably more than any creator ever, he had a 123 (+15) ORTG. The only players over 20 ppg and have a higher ORTG in a season (excluding PGs) are Jordan, Jimmy, KD, Chuck, Reggie, and Moncrief.

Harden had a +6.0 rTS% but had a 11.9 adjusted TOV% and a 3.5 ORB%. Thanks to his style which was turnover heavy despite his heavy scoring efficiency gap, he had a 118 (+9) ORTG. Harden makes up for that efficiency gap with a volume gap. 67.5% of Rockets possessions with Harden on the floor ended with a Harden shot attempt, turnover, or assist. To compare that number was only 45.8% for Roy.

Overall when broken down like this they look even offensively. When looking at the boxscore Harden is clearly better though. By eye test if you're impressed by what a player does with the ball in his hands Harden looks better because he's doing more. If you're impressed by how smoothly they run their team offenses they're about even to my eye. Overall, I'm voting Harden over Roy because Roy only played one series healthy (it would be one of Harden's best but not his best), but it's the go to example I have of a player being valued less because of which boxscore numbers they exceed with, not necessarily how much they exceed.

And you can say "well his team is stacked", but they wouldn't be what they are without him.

A sentence you can use for literally every player on every team ever. Each team is made better by having a player where there wasn't one. This isn't a good response to a claim that a team is stacked.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#105 » by freethedevil » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:23 pm

E-Balla wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
E-Balla wrote:I have a post about 2016 Kawhi on the last page. Unless you're saying you wanna hear 2016 Kawhi vs 2019 Giannis because that'll be fun to type up and it might clarify where I need to put Giannis at for me as I'm working through the logic in my head.

And damn I keep writing off this tier 3 PG post...

2016 kawhi vs 2019 giannis would be cool. That said, 'd like to see elaboration regarding kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan? And his man defense was nice, but how about his rim protection, help defense, ect?

Also, you say he was a decent playmaker based on like a few great passes? How frequently did he create, how many tunrovers, turnover percentage, assist percentage ect.

Image

:lol: I got you bro.

kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan?

Easily. Duncan in 2016 was on his last legs and only played about 1500 minutes, only 38% of the team's total minutes. Everything they did on that end relied on the fact that the opposing team's best option could not score 1 on 1. At that point it only took everyone being where they needed to be on the court to dominate and with Danny, LMA, Duncan, Slo Mo, Diaw, and West you don't have to worry about them getting lost too often. Danny is more than good enough to lock up most team's 2nd options (again not OKC, so KD did work on him while Kawhi checked Russ) so opposing offenses had no chance of scoring without 2 ATG superstars on the team because that first superstar was getting clamped up no matter what.

but how about his rim protection,


Great question! Kawhi was the highest rated non-big rim protector that played over 41 games.

Given there are bigs that could be voted in, I think how his defence ranks overall is the relevant question here. Also, the scheme you described seems more defense by comittee than a single anchor carrying the defense. How did the spurs defense look without kawhi?
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#106 » by E-Balla » Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:46 pm

freethedevil wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
freethedevil wrote:2016 kawhi vs 2019 giannis would be cool. That said, 'd like to see elaboration regarding kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan? And his man defense was nice, but how about his rim protection, help defense, ect?

Also, you say he was a decent playmaker based on like a few great passes? How frequently did he create, how many tunrovers, turnover percentage, assist percentage ect.

Image

:lol: I got you bro.

kawhi's defense. You say he anchored a -7 defense, but was he more important than say duncan?

Easily. Duncan in 2016 was on his last legs and only played about 1500 minutes, only 38% of the team's total minutes. Everything they did on that end relied on the fact that the opposing team's best option could not score 1 on 1. At that point it only took everyone being where they needed to be on the court to dominate and with Danny, LMA, Duncan, Slo Mo, Diaw, and West you don't have to worry about them getting lost too often. Danny is more than good enough to lock up most team's 2nd options (again not OKC, so KD did work on him while Kawhi checked Russ) so opposing offenses had no chance of scoring without 2 ATG superstars on the team because that first superstar was getting clamped up no matter what.

but how about his rim protection,


Great question! Kawhi was the highest rated non-big rim protector that played over 41 games.

Given there are bigs that could be voted in, I think how his defence ranks overall is the relevant question here. Also, the scheme you described seems more defense by comittee than a single anchor carrying the defense. How did the spurs defense look without kawhi?

The Spurs were extremely strong without Kawhi, because every great defense ever was great without their star. All defenses are defense by committee that's how defense works.

The 16 Spurs had a 99.1 DRTG which would've ranked 1st over the Hawks still (they had a 95.9 with Kawhi).

For some other examples of amazing defenses:

The 04 Spurs had a 97.5 DRTG without Tim on the floor (would've ranked 3rd under Indy who had the DPOY and Detroit who had the GOAT defense full season).

The 08 Celtics had a 98.6 DRTG without KG on the floor (would've ranked 1st).

The 11 Bulls had a 97.8 DRTG without Deng on the floor (would've ranked 1st).

The 14 Pacers had a 98.3 DRTG without Hibbert on the floor (would've ranked 1st).

That's part of the reason I said I couldn't vote Robinson over championship level first options, and part of the reason I said I thought Ewing's defensive "improvement" was really just improvement around him. A single defensive player isn't making a defense good. Deke is the GOAT modern defender IMO and in 2000 he had the best PI RAPM finish we've ever seen by standard deviation (iirc on either side of the ball too). He had the most DRBs in the league and was 2nd in blocks. The Hawks ranked bottom 5 defensively and had a +3.8 defense. There's no way you're assembling a defense that's top 10 ever without not being dependent on a single player. That goes for bigs too.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#107 » by No-more-rings » Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:45 pm

E-Balla wrote:Yeah you know I strongly disagree with Jokic, and I agree Kawhi can turn it on but it doesn't change the fact he went half speed on D through the regular season.


I didn't know what your opinion of Jokic's defense was, i don't know his DRAPM or anything but i think he's at least average.

You often say you don't care about regular season, so why's it matter if Kawhi went half speed? Being able to turn it up is a hugely valuable trait.

E-Balla wrote:The best defensive player of this era is a PF smaller than Chuck... We've seen Draymond on interviews with Chuck and while they haven't stood next to each other Chuck looks bigger than Draymond with a fuller frame (that said he's old and fat so that could explain the size difference there). There's more players with his physical profile in the league now than ever!


Draymond is a 1000 times smarter and much more willing to play defense so i don't get this point. I'm not sure what either of their heights are, i just remember hearing Barkley was more like 6'5 opposed to his 6'6 listing. I definitely don't buy him being 6'7 like you said, but i might be wrong.

Either way, you're not answering the point about how a pf that doesn't play defense won't hurt you regardless of his real size. If you think Chuck was a legit positive in his time on that end I'd need some convincing. And if no stars play defense like you claim, that would be even more of a reason for him to not try.

E-Balla wrote:Giannis led a top 5 offense and is a worse midrange shooter, 3 point shooter, scorer, and passer than Chuck. Jokic was the same percentage from deep last year as Chuck was in 93 when he led the #1 offense...


I think Giannis 19' Bucks are a bit of an outlier in this type of case, like i feel they kind of played a bit over their head during that regular season, but i guess next year we'll know for sure.

E-Balla wrote:At this point I gotta ask, have you ever seen Charles Barkley play? Are you assuming he was some plodding oaf? Are you assuming he was too small to play big? Seriously these statements are becoming more and more confusing.

You realize you're talking about one of the 6 most impressive athletes in league history (Chuck, Bron, Nate, Shaq, Wilt, Zion) right? This guy:

1- Yes i've seen him play, possibly not as much as you but you also aren't voting for him yet.

2. I've never seen him as anything close to a top 6 athlete ever, though i guess athleticism is subjective just like most stuff.


E-Balla wrote:He has that many amazing feats of athleticism in ONE GAME. Quite frankly logic that applies to everyone else ever doesn't apply to him. He's just different. It's not like there were other players of his ilk in the league before him either. It's hard for you to imagine him playing in 2019 the same way it was hard for you to imagine a player averaging a triple double again 5 years ago.


I'm not saying he couldn't play the same, i just think it's not quite as effective as it was then, like i see no valid reasoning to take him over Curry or Harden as offensive players today. He's not on either's level as a shooter, and at least worse than Harden as a playmaker.

Anyway, as to where you'd rank peak Chuck today, i can't see him being over any of these guys if fully healthy: Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis, Harden, Curry, KD, Davis, Jokic, Embiid. So that's about what i said originally, borderline top 10, like probably 10th or something. If you want to take Embiid off, i'm fine with that since he's never shown to stay on the court for more than 60 some games. I don't think that's some insult either considering that 3 of those guys are already voted in, and the rest aside from Jokic and Embiid are likely coming up soon as well.

E-Balla wrote:You need to convince people their flaws and weaknesses are either not true, or not enough to effect his overall success.


Harden's team records since coming to Houston at 23 years old:

45
54
56
41
55
65
53

His team's offenses since that's what guards seem to get judged so heavily for, doesn't apply to Harden now.

6th
4th
12th
7th
2nd
1st
2nd

Made 2 WCF, and won 6 playoff series in that span, losing to the Warriors in 4/7 of those years. Aside from the fact that he couldn't beat the greatest team ever, i don't know what more he was supposed to do? It seems highly nitpicking for someone we're voting in the 26-30 range.


Eballa wrote:Going to mention he had as much or more success while playing next to numbers 24 and 25 on this list?


He went further than Paul did, while actually beating Paul's team.

As to the Roy stuff, i can probably use a ton of examples like that to attempt to knock Westbrook down.

It would be like saying, 06 Billups was just as impressive or more so than 17 Westbrook, because he led the 4th ranked offense vs Okc's 16th rated offense, did it with much worse box scores and only a +1.7 difference in offensive on/off on a much better team. Unless you think it was the offensive brilliance of Rip Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace that was responsible for it.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#108 » by ardee » Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:09 pm

Getting my thoughts together for if CP3 gets 26 and Chuck 27...

28: Kawhi
29: Malone
30: Harden
31: Giannis
32: Davis
33: Howard

Something like that?
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#109 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:15 pm

So for 2016 Kawhi vs 2019 Giannis there's 2 ways I'm going with this headed into the post:

1. Giannis wasn't better than Kawhi defensively and was most likely slightly worse.
2. Giannis at the same time wasn't as useful an offensive weapon in the postseason, while also not being meaningfully better than Kawhi in the regular season.

I'll refrain from bringing up anything Kawhi accomplished after 2016 here, because unlike my argument for 2016 Kawhi vs 2017 and 2019 Kawhi there's no reason to mention these other years.

I do want to add that after completing this post I'm higher on Giannis and now think he might belong in the top 30 over someone like Nash because while I think he's worse than Kawhi on both ends both players have a similar statistical profile, similar roles on their teams (just accomplished in different ways), and similar impact on both sides of the ball. It never occurred to me how close these years were stylistically and the only gap Kawhi has IMO is he stepped up in the playoffs while Giannis took a slight step back.

Offense -

Spoiler:
So it looks like Giannis has the clear edge here, right? I mean he scored 27.7 ppg on +8.7 rTS% in the regular season and 25.5 ppg on 57.0 TS% in the playoffs while Kawhi averaged only 21.2 ppg on +7.5 rTS% in the regular season and 22.5 ppg on 59.7 TS% in the playoffs.

The thing is when looking into their playoff scoring once you adjust for pace Giannis averaged 23.5 TSA per 75 and Kawhi averaged 21.8 TSA per 75.

Once you adjust for opponent quality (the expected TS% for Giannis given his opponents and shots per series is 55.1 TS%) his efficiency was a solid +2.4 in the playoffs while Kawhi's (the expected TS% for Kawhi given his opponents and shots per series is 53.7 TS%) was a spectacular +6.0.

That means overall adjusted for their opponents(*) Giannis averaged 26.5 points per 75 and Kawhi averaged 26.2 points per 75. Given the efficiency gap, the variety in their scoring games, the gap in ability to work off ball, and the large gap in turnovers on scoring attempts I'd say Kawhi isn't just a better scorer but he's a way better scorer. More than enough to make up for the small volume gap and small gap in playmaking ability.

*I always use 54 TS% as a baseline because it's roughly the average over the whole post merger era and I felt this needed to be mentioned because Memphis was banged up but outside of Kawhi San Antonio's offense scored at a rate damn near equal to what Memphis gave up in the regular season so I don't think it had that much of an effect on their already subpar defense.

In terms of the impact numbers we see the same. The Spurs had a +3.9 offense that played at a +5.8 in the postseason. The Bucks had a +3.4 offense that played at a +3.9 level in the postseason. Giannis had a +6.3 offensive on/off in the regular season (+3.7 in the playoffs). Kawhi had a +4.2 offensive on/off in the regular season (+6.9 in the playoffs).

We have single year RAPM for both years too and while I don't have where they ranked offensively I can say Kawhi had a +2.1 ORAPM and ranked 6th overall in RAPM while Giannis had a 1.9 ORAPM and ranked 6th overall also.


Defense -

Spoiler:
I've already broken down Kawhi's defensive game in my first post on him and my post to freethedevil (spoiler alert, he's great) and I've already alluded to the fact that according to +/- numbers Kawhi and Giannis are damn near even with both players ranking 2nd in DRAPM (Kawhi being 2nd to Draymond, Giannis being 2nd to PG13). Both guys were arguably DPOY even though Kawhi is the only won that actually won it.

Overall Giannis is an odd defender. He's below average as a man defender, and has some giant weaknesses (which is why prior to this year his defense was never as impactful as it should've been - he was arguably the most misused defensive anchor for years), but the unique nature of his strengths combined with a system/teammates meant to maximize his talents makes him one of the best in the league right now.

As a man defender Giannis is solid on big men. He can stick to his man and uses his length to contest well. He uses his size in the post just as effectively. The issue is when Giannis is switched onto a small. He's not really quick enough to keep up with smaller guards and while he's not Gobert out there he's not particularly solid either. I'd say he's at best average for a PF.

In the PNR Giannis is an odd one because given those things you'd think he'd do well guarding the roll man but they actually trap hard and switch because Giannis off a PNR action becomes a player that can guard shooters well. He does a good job of not biting for fakes knowing he can recover easily with his length and (and this is key) off a PNR with his man diving he knows unless the PG slows down to isolate the paint is probably going to be packed so he doesn't have to play so far under that he gives up an open shot. On the other end of that I've seen Giannis lose his man when they don't switch and he has to go from helping on the G to running to the roll man. For some reason he's just not that good at that action.

Where Giannis makes the most of his impact on that end is as a dominant weakside rim protector (ala KAT at UK) and hustle player. He's the 11th ranked rim defender in the league (minimum 41 games played, 3 shot attempts a game) holding opponents to -10% under their average when he contests. He's also not someone that boxes out on the boards or gets a lot of deflections but he's top 5 in loose balls recovered per game with 2. All in all Giannis is probably the most impactful defender I've ever seen that doesn't guard the opposing team's best player, isn't a primary rim defender, and all in all doesn't contest that many shots (he's one of the lowest ranking bigmen in contested shots per minute). He thrives off just being help for the other 4 defenders while he's on the floor.

With that said why do I take Kawhi over him on defense even though their impact is about even? Well like I said Giannis is unique. I don't think on a team without Brook Lopez he could play this role (Brook led the league in contested shots a night contesting 18.1 shots in 28.7 mpg while LMA was 2nd place contesting 16.3 shots in 33.2 mpg). I don't think on a team where he wasn't in the lineup with long players like Bledsoe (only 6-1 but has a 6-8 wingspan), Brogdon, Snell, Maker (half the season), Mirotic, and Middleton he's still as great. The Bucks with their extreme amount of length has the ability to completely shut down passing lanes inside the arc and thanks to that they probably have the best 2 point defense I've ever seen. The other side of that is that they allowed more 3 point attempts and makes than anyone ever has with this unique scheme. Kawhi on the other hand is a way more traditional defender at the SF position which means he can fit basically anywhere. He doesn't need a whole defensive scheme around him to be effective, he's plug and play. Even Jason Kidd couldn't **** up his impact.


Overall that's how I feel about Kawhi and Giannis' games compared. Like I said their impact was damn near even, so putting Giannis over him based on accolades is fine, but when talking better seasons and better players I like to imagine how they'd do on other teams as well and I can see Kawhi having the exact same impact on most teams. Can't say the same for a player with as many flaws as Giannis.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#110 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:47 pm

No-more-rings wrote:I didn't know what your opinion of Jokic's defense was, i don't know his DRAPM or anything but i think he's at least average.

You often say you don't care about regular season, so why's it matter if Kawhi went half speed? Being able to turn it up is a hugely valuable trait.

Kawhi didn't really turn it on, and for the purposes of the post I was talking regular season. The argument was that Chuck can't play defense so he'd lose his value, but plenty of stars now don't play defense at all. More stars than ever before don't play defense at all.

As far as Jokic goes his DRAPM isn't bad but watching him on the court he's one of the worst rim defenders in the league and one of the worst guys out on the perimeter too. His post defense and hands are great and he can board but overall he's well below average IMO and one of the worst defensive players in the league.

Draymond is a 1000 times smarter and much more willing to play defense so i don't get this point. I'm not sure what either of their heights are, i just remember hearing Barkley was more like 6'5 opposed to his 6'6 listing. I definitely don't buy him being 6'7 like you said, but i might be wrong.

Barkley is taller than MJ who's 6-6 in sneakers and like I said he's interviewed Draymond before and is clearly bigger. If his will to play defense is your issue with him, why mention his size at all?

Either way, you're not answering the point about how a pf that doesn't play defense won't hurt you regardless of his real size. If you think Chuck was a legit positive in his time on that end I'd need some convincing. And if no stars play defense like you claim, that would be even more of a reason for him to not try.

Maybe you forgot what you posted?

with the way the game is played i think his defense would look even worse.


The argument isn't that Chuck is a good defender, it's that he'd do better defensively now in 2019 than he did in 1990. No one will ever call Barkley a good defender or anything but terrible, but you're arguing that he'd be even worse in the modern NBA where more players fit the physical profile of Barkley than he was when he was a mismatch to almost everyone if not everyone.

I think Giannis 19' Bucks are a bit of an outlier in this type of case, like i feel they kind of played a bit over their head during that regular season, but i guess next year we'll know for sure.

And you're not going to address Jokic for what reason here? I mean he was 30% from deep, still seemed great to me! Seriously Barkley was the worst high volume shooter in the league even back then, it's not an issue when you're legitimately one of the 5 best scoring threats in league history.

2. I've never seen him as anything close to a top 6 athlete ever, though i guess athleticism is subjective just like most stuff.

Barkley was one of the 5 strongest players in the league, one of the 5 fastest players coast to coast when he was younger, and had one of the 5 best second jumps in league history. Seriously I don't get how you can watch that video I posted and not say Barkley is as athletically dominant as (for example) young LeBron.

I'm not saying he couldn't play the same, i just think it's not quite as effective as it was then, like i see no valid reasoning to take him over Curry or Harden as offensive players today. He's not on either's level as a shooter, and at least worse than Harden as a playmaker.

A shooter? No. A scorer? He's better than both of them. If a player can move the ball well why does it matter where they score from? Would Kareem not be a top 5 offensive player in the league now? Did Anthony Davis not lead a top 5ish offense for half the season?

Also you're ignoring offensive rebounding of which Barkley is one of the GOATs. When it comes to second shots he's second only to Moses (maybe Shaq).

Anyway, as to where you'd rank peak Chuck today, i can't see him being over any of these guys if fully healthy: Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis, Harden, Curry, KD, Davis, Jokic, Embiid. So that's about what i said originally, borderline top 10, like probably 10th or something. If you want to take Embiid off, i'm fine with that since he's never shown to stay on the court for more than 60 some games. I don't think that's some insult either considering that 3 of those guys are already voted in, and the rest aside from Jokic and Embiid are likely coming up soon as well.

After my post on Giannis I'd say only Kawhi is clearly better with Giannis being just about as good as him. And I think it is an insult because there's no way either Embiid or Jokic belong on this list and Steph/KD/LeBron didn't make the list in peak form. LeBron is 34 now, Steph has no ankles, and KD got hurt in 2015 and has been worse than his peak form ever since.

It's just strange to think someone like Barkley would be LESS effective in a league where a playstyle molded by him is thriving so much league wide.

Harden's team records since coming to Houston at 23 years old:

45
54
56
41
55
65
53

His team's offenses since that's what guards seem to get judged so heavily for, doesn't apply to Harden now.

6th
4th
12th
7th
2nd
1st
2nd

Made 2 WCF, and won 6 playoff series in that span, losing to the Warriors in 4/7 of those years. Aside from the fact that he couldn't beat the greatest team ever, i don't know what more he was supposed to do? It seems highly nitpicking for someone we're voting in the 26-30 range.

Maybe read the countless arguments against him? Like this for example, who doubts his ability to play great offensively, or in the regular season? What good does posting regular season team ORTGs do when the criticism is that he's the worst defensive SG ever and he doesn't maintain his offensive production in the postseason?

He went further than Paul did, while actually beating Paul's team.

Oh you mean how he made a CF and CP3 didn't? Well I'd put Harden over Paul for 2015 pretty easily in that case. I think 08 is Paul's peak though and he didn't go as far but he fell 1 game short to the defending champions so that's not too bad.

As to the Roy stuff, i can probably use a ton of examples like that to attempt to knock Westbrook down.

It would be like saying, 06 Billups was just as impressive or more so than 17 Westbrook, because he led the 4th ranked offense vs Okc's 16th rated offense, did it with much worse box scores and only a +1.7 difference in offensive on/off on a much better team.

Umm... If you think that's anything like what I just did you've shown you have no willingness to even entertain an argument against Harden because that's nothing like what I did in my post.

Unless you think it was the offensive brilliance of Rip Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace that was responsible for it.

Yes because everyone knows peak Rip Hamilton and prime Sheed are bad offensive players... Like seriously what is this garbage? I love nothing more than when a poster goes "it would be like saying x" but doesn't even attempt to make parallels. You knew this was trash when you typed it, stop that.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#111 » by Sublime187 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:36 pm

I think Barkley is being underrated in terms of offense. He dominated inside in an era when the area around the basket was a lot more cluttered. And as E-Balla had pointed out he is in the conversation for top 10 athlete in the NBA all time.

As far as defense is concerned I suppose we have to take into account his defensive rebounding ability and maybe with more focus he could be at least a neutral defender.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#112 » by liamliam1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:41 pm

NMR bringing up Chauncey seems pretty fair to me. And I think it is an irresponsible assertion to just declare that because “no one plays defence” Barkley would do well.

The modern offensive game, especially in the playoffs, is predicated primarily on hunting for mismatches on the opposing team’s worst defensive player as often as possible. By all indications, Barkley in his power forward days was a pretty major drain on team defence in an era where that was exploited less; in the modern era, teams would go at him as often as they possibly could. Right now, I am not sure how many major minute power forwards on decent teams have his level of defence. It is all speculative, but unless he were played next to Rudy Gobert, I would be extremely concerned how he would do in the current era on defence. The offensive boost miiight outweigh it, but I do not know.

Oh, and speaking of offensive boosts...

I think Barkley is being underrated in terms of offence.


Steve Nash is still not in! The fact that a less impactful offensive-only player is receiving heavy votes over him is already problematic, but complaining about Barkley being overlooked is just adding insult to injury.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#113 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:44 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:NMR bringing up Chauncey seems pretty fair to me.

How? I compared players on similar level teams to each other. Players with similar supporting casts. He compared the results of Westbrook playing with scrubs to Chauncey playing with 3 All Stars and then clearly started trolling when he said:

Unless you think it was the offensive brilliance of Rip Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace that was responsible for it.


Umm... Yeah? Are Sheed and peak Rip **** Hamilton not better offensive players than everyone else on the Thunder combined? Chauncey's strong +/- numbers were quite literally dragged up by the rest of the starting 5 and you can see that in RAPM.

Chauncey ranked 100th in PI RAPM in 06. Rip was 74th. Tayshaun was 36th. Ben was 19th. Sheed was 13th.

Actually for a multiyear sample I just looked it up and from 06-11 Chauncey was lower rated in RAPM than PRE-PRIME WESTBROOK. He was better than Chauncey early in his career and they're not particularly close by any measurements. He might've won Finals MVP but he was the 3rd best player on those Pistons teams. It's insane how overrated he is around here until you remember he's probably the star player with the biggest FG% to TS% disparity and then it makes sense.

And I think it is an irresponsible assertion to just declare that because “no one plays defence” Barkley would do well.

No I said I don't see how someone will say he can't do well when tons of players are stars and just as bad defensively. Being terrible on defense (and even offense looking at Bill Russell) isn't enough to make a player not great.

The modern offensive game, especially in the playoffs, is predicated primarily on hunting for mismatches on the opposing team’s worst defensive player as often as possible. By all indications, Barkley in his power forward days was a pretty major drain on team defence in an era where that was exploited less; in the modern era, teams would go at him as often as they possibly could.

You must've missed the part of my argument where I mentioned there's way more players with Barkley's body type in the league now. He's not going to be a mismatch for being too small for PFs and too slow for SFs since SFs are bigger and slower now and PFs are shorter.

Millsap, the Morris twins, Tobias, Middleton, Saric, Draymond, types are all over the league. Tweeners at F are dead since damn near every role player at that position is a tweener now.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#114 » by liamliam1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:54 pm

I was not saying power forwards would roast him; Barkley was not a negative defender at the position in the 1990s just because power forwards were generally better-ish. I am saying now it is even more likely for him to be put in a position where he is forced to defend guards. And as I said, his offensive improvements might make up for that, but it would be something any team with him would struggle around.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#115 » by freethedevil » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:13 pm

Kinda absurd to assert that current defenders being less impactful would somehow make things easier for earlier defenders. actually it's just absurd at all to think 90's defenders were even on par, let alone better than current defenders given how much more has to be done to contest shooting and movement, and the greater versatility in defensive roles and assignements.

Also, i have to ask who these 'tons" of players are? The only superstar from last season who made their defence worse was james harden. Lebron, curry, kd, kawhi, and jokic all improved the defences they played on.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#116 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:41 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:I was not saying power forwards would roast him; Barkley was not a negative defender at the position in the 1990s just because power forwards were generally better-ish. I am saying now it is even more likely for him to be put in a position where he is forced to defend guards. And as I said, his offensive improvements might make up for that, but it would be something any team with him would struggle around.

You can say the same about any big man. Yes he can be picked apart by guards, so could Zo and Dikembe. Chuck was better than Julius Randle and he started on the 12th ranked defense 2 years ago and got heavy PT on the Pelicans who were on the playoff bubble before benching AD. Just because now it'll be other people's man roasting him and not his man doesn't mean he'll be getting roasted any more often and it probably means he'll get roasted less often.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#117 » by liamliam1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:07 pm

And I also specified it would be a particular playoff problem, when liabilities are targeted as often as possible.

And while I would agree Mutombo and Mourning would be less suited for the modern era, it is disingenuous to act as if they would be anywhere near as much of a target as Barkley. The gap between Barkley and even guys like Capela or Brook on defence is monumental.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#118 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:55 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:And I also specified it would be a particular playoff problem, when liabilities are targeted as often as possible.

And while I would agree Mutombo and Mourning would be less suited for the modern era, it is disingenuous to act as if they would be anywhere near as much of a target as Barkley. The gap between Barkley and even guys like Capela or Brook on defence is monumental.

On the perimeter? No way.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#119 » by liamliam1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:29 pm

Yes, because it makes total sense for me to only be talking about the perimeter...

In terms of general defence. If someone is going to be exploited, Barkley is going to be one of the top targets, especially if the subject is his power forward years. He is neither a paint defender nor a perimeter defender, and he also cannot claim to add much (if anything) in terms of help defence. He is a general liability anywhere on the court, and as we have seen with Harden, defensive “hiding” only goes so far, whether that be through a specific mismatch with a guard, or with a mismatch a guard (or some primary ball-handler) creates on Barkley.
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Re: #26 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#120 » by E-Balla » Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:46 am

liamliam1234 wrote:Yes, because it makes total sense for me to only be talking about the perimeter...

But you just said:

I was not saying power forwards would roast him; Barkley was not a negative defender at the position in the 1990s just because power forwards were generally better-ish. I am saying now it is even more likely for him to be put in a position where he is forced to defend guards.


When I brought up PFs. Forgot the topic?

In terms of general defence. If someone is going to be exploited, Barkley is going to be one of the top targets, especially if the subject is his power forward years. He is neither a paint defender nor a perimeter defender, and he also cannot claim to add much (if anything) in terms of help defence. He is a general liability anywhere on the court, and as we have seen with Harden, defensive “hiding” only goes so far, whether that be through a specific mismatch with a guard, or with a mismatch a guard (or some primary ball-handler) creates on Barkley.

But also as we've seen with Harden it doesn't stop you from being a great player. Which is my point.

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