KC Mailbag "Dunn looks great in workouts"... Thinks he will start

beeshma · Post #121 » by **beeshma** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:11 pm

This is the most depressing news I have heard about the upcoming season. It undermines our hope that the front office “gets it.” The Bears have their QB turnstile and the Bulls have the same for PG.

Or maybe it is a smoke screen to boost Dunn’s trade value?

bad knees · Post #122 » by **bad knees** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:20 pm

Dunn looking great in workouts means that he is being more productive in his alpha guard role. There are two problems with this, in terms of projecting him as a long term starter for the Bulls. First, the likelihood that he would ever develop to the point where the Bulls, or any team, would want to ride him as their stud, is close to zero. Second, Dunn being alpha guard conflicts with the team that the Bulls have told us over and over that they think they are building - a team that features LaVine and Markkanen as lead scorers. The Bulls don't want their PG to be an alpha guard, unless he is really, really good, which Dunn will never be.

So take this news with a huge grain of salt. If it means anything, it is that the Bulls are trying to hype Dunn's trade value. I doubt it helps, but it's the sort of thing that the Bulls like to think. We even may see Dunn start a few games in support of this trade value premise. But it will end quickly when, like always, Dunn trying to play like an alpha guard leads to poor performances by LaVine and Markkanen, and lots of losses.

NDave79 · Post #123 » by **NDave79** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:17 pm

I have very little hope for Dunn at this point. It seems like the Bulls are all in on this multi-ballhandler system and had some great success without even a training camp to implement the system. An improved version of who Dunn has been so far in this league is still a bad fit. Even if he became Russell Westbrook, I don't like the fit. I've basically given up on ball dominant point guards no matter how good they are. So if Dunn can completely redefine himself and change his mentality and learn to shoot and play effectively off the ball, sure I'm happy to give him a chance, but the odds of all that happening seems like less than a 1% chance.

Post #124 » by **coldfish** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:34 pm

Quite frankly, if I was to put all of the Bulls in pick up type games I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn looked the second best behind Lavine. His game is suited to being a ball dominant guy in a free flowing game. Its really not surprising if the report is true.

Dunn's issue is that in those pick up games, teams aren't gameplanning for shot efficiency, help defense, etc. As soon as you put in some NBA type structure, his weaknesses are going to show up.

Look at the 1980's style metrics, per 36 Dunn averaged 16.5p 7.3a 5.2a in his second year. Even the 43% doesn't look that bad circa 1983. Its only when you factor in his lack of free throws, ball pounding, lack of 3's etc. does he start to look bad and that's not going into analyzing pick up games.

Peelboy · Post #125 » by **Peelboy** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:01 pm

This doesn't seem that complicated to me. If Dunn is improved and killing it in workouts, that's good. It may be unlikely, but if it happens, it's good. If he actually outplays Sato/White, then sure he should start (see below for elaboration on "outplay"). People seem to be translating that to "he isn't actually outplaying because he sucks, so it's bad if he starts." Which seems to just be another way of the "Bulls r dumb" mantra finding a new home - assume that they are going to do something dumb and complain about it. Again - however unlikely it may be, it's not impossible for Dunn to improve substantially, and if that's what happened then kudos to him and the team.

Now by "outplay," I don't mean "score more." I mean "contribute to winning more." Even if in pickup games Dunn is scoring more, then if he's doing so at the expense of his teammates and particularly Lavine/Lauri, then he's not going to get the nod from a team that has repeatedly acknowledged that L&L are the core. Heck - Dunn himself said towards the end of last year that the team changed to one that needs him to play a different role - but now supposedly if he's not filling that he'll get the nod.... :crazy:

However, if Dunn is pushing the pace, hitting his open 3s, and defending, he may be a good fit w Lavine. If however he is showing ISO skills only then not so much.

Peelboy · Post #126 » by **Peelboy** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:03 pm

coldfish wrote:Quite frankly, if I was to put all of the Bulls in pick up type games I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn looked the second best behind Lavine. His game is suited to being a ball dominant guy in a free flowing game. Its really not surprising if the report is true.

Dunn's issue is that in those pick up games, teams aren't gameplanning for shot efficiency, help defense, etc. As soon as you put in some NBA type structure, his weaknesses are going to show up.

Look at the 1980's style metrics, per 36 Dunn averaged 16.5p 7.3a 5.2a in his second year. Even the 43% doesn't look that bad circa 1983. Its only when you factor in his lack of free throws, ball pounding, lack of 3's etc. does he start to look bad and that's not going into analyzing pick up games.

I agree with this, with the addendum that "and Boylen & co will see that and make decisions accordingly." It starts with Dunn playing better, which if you believe the rumors, is what's happening. But if that's not translating into better team play, no reason to think he will automatically get the nod. Not when the team went out of its way to get guys that maximize the value of Lauri & Lavine - suddenly they're going to sacrifice that (or be fooled into sacrificing it) for a guy they were looking to dump?

wonderboy2 · Post #127 » by **wonderboy2** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:57 pm

Sounds like Dunn has been busting ass during scrimmages. Paxon mentioned Dunn in the press conference saying he responded in a big way and it didn’t sound like he was trying to boost his trade value either. He sounded very sincere. Lavine also mentioned how Dunn looked as good as anyone in scrimmages. Going to be an interesting battle at point guard during the season.

Red Larrivee · Post #128 » by **Red Larrivee** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:38 pm

coldfish wrote:Quite frankly, if I was to put all of the Bulls in pick up type games I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn looked the second best behind Lavine. His game is suited to being a ball dominant guy in a free flowing game. Its really not surprising if the report is true.

Dunn's issue is that in those pick up games, teams aren't gameplanning for shot efficiency, help defense, etc. As soon as you put in some NBA type structure, his weaknesses are going to show up.

Look at the 1980's style metrics, per 36 Dunn averaged 16.5p 7.3a 5.2a in his second year. Even the 43% doesn't look that bad circa 1983. Its only when you factor in his lack of free throws, ball pounding, lack of 3's etc. does he start to look bad and that's not going into analyzing pick up games.

This is why I can't get behind the idea of Dunn's improvement, unless he's completely reinvented his game to play more like say...Tomas Satoransky.

Inefficient, ball-dominant guards, who can't shoot are not ideal starters anymore. Russell Westbrook is the poster child for it and we saw in the playoffs how problematic building a team around him was. When the ball isn't in Dunn's hands, he becomes completely worthless in a possession. When the ball is in his hands, the results are mediocre. I just don't understand what the Bulls gain from him as a starter anymore.

Post #129 » by **Michael Jackson** » Tue Oct 1, 2019 4:03 am

wonderboy2 wrote:Sounds like Dunn has been busting ass during scrimmages. Paxon mentioned Dunn in the press conference saying he responded in a big way and it didn’t sound like he was trying to boost his trade value either. He sounded very sincere. Lavine also mentioned how Dunn looked as good as anyone in scrimmages. Going to be an interesting battle at point guard during the season.

Is t that whatPax said he wanted? They have varying potential cast of guards and it is kinda mad max style. They have created a competition, maybe because they believe in white and want him to earn it, maybe because there is no standout stud and the completion makes them all better, maybe because they want all of them to boost their trade value, whatever it is I see no downside. Tomas is fine a Kyle Orton type, He won’t hurt you starting but he isn’t elite. Get blood in the water, maybe Dunn is responding to getting pushed... who knows. Likely I think he will be like Fizer in a similar situation, look good for a little while then go back to what he was. I’m all for the competition though.

drosereturn · Post #130 » by **drosereturn** » Tue Oct 1, 2019 4:22 am

bad knees wrote:Dunn looking great in workouts means that he is being more productive in his alpha guard role. There are two problems with this, in terms of projecting him as a long term starter for the Bulls. First, the likelihood that he would ever develop to the point where the Bulls, or any team, would want to ride him as their stud, is close to zero. Second, Dunn being alpha guard conflicts with the team that the Bulls have told us over and over that they think they are building - a team that features LaVine and Markkanen as lead scorers. The Bulls don't want their PG to be an alpha guard, unless he is really, really good, which Dunn will never be.

So take this news with a huge grain of salt. If it means anything, it is that the Bulls are trying to hype Dunn's trade value. I doubt it helps, but it's the sort of thing that the Bulls like to think. We even may see Dunn start a few games in support of this trade value premise. But it will end quickly when, like always, Dunn trying to play like an alpha guard leads to poor performances by LaVine and Markkanen, and lots of losses.

I dont think anyone's taking it seriously. The problem is FO might think he is the pg of the future when they just signed Sato/Coby.
If he somehow starts before those 2, im going to lose my mind.

Red8911 · Post #131 » by **Red8911** » Tue Oct 1, 2019 4:46 am

beeshma wrote:This is the most depressing news I have heard about the upcoming season. It undermines our hope that the front office “gets it.” The Bears have their QB turnstile and the Bulls have the same for PG.

Or maybe it is a smoke screen to boost Dunn’s trade value?

Dunn is most likely getting traded no matter what he does.I just don’t see the bulls re signing him next summer.For now if he plays well that’s good for the team. More competition is great for them all. Also I believe Satoransky was brought here to start so he will probably be the starter. That’s not a terrible thing for Dunn, he can still be effective off the bench with Coby.

Chi town · Post #132 » by **Chi town** » Tue Oct 1, 2019 6:00 am

Red Larrivee wrote:
coldfish wrote:Quite frankly, if I was to put all of the Bulls in pick up type games I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn looked the second best behind Lavine. His game is suited to being a ball dominant guy in a free flowing game. Its really not surprising if the report is true.

Dunn's issue is that in those pick up games, teams aren't gameplanning for shot efficiency, help defense, etc. As soon as you put in some NBA type structure, his weaknesses are going to show up.

Look at the 1980's style metrics, per 36 Dunn averaged 16.5p 7.3a 5.2a in his second year. Even the 43% doesn't look that bad circa 1983. Its only when you factor in his lack of free throws, ball pounding, lack of 3's etc. does he start to look bad and that's not going into analyzing pick up games.

This is why I can't get behind the idea of Dunn's improvement, unless he's completely reinvented his game to play more like say...Tomas Satoransky.

Inefficient, ball-dominant guards, who can't shoot are not ideal starters anymore. Russell Westbrook is the poster child for it and we saw in the playoffs how problematic building a team around him was. When the ball isn't in Dunn's hands, he becomes completely worthless in a possession. When the ball is in his hands, the results are mediocre. I just don't understand what the Bulls gain from him as a starter anymore.

Yes. Only way he has a role is if he’s turned into Marcus Smart off the bench or Sato off ball w the starters.

StunnerKO · Post #133 » by **StunnerKO** » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:14 pm

Read on Twitter

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nomorezorro · Post #134 » by **nomorezorro** » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:23 pm

yeah, if dunn is going to get any rotation minutes i think that's pretty clearly the best way to use him (primary ballhandler for the second unit).

the biggest problem with that plan would be it kind of limits the development of coby in that same role, but i don't think it would be a bad idea to get him to focus on off-ball stuff at first, because that's probably his quickest path to becoming an immediate contributor. then when dunn inevitably gets traded shift him over to do some more traditional PG work

nomorezorro · Post #135 » by **nomorezorro** » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:25 pm

Read on Twitter

this article is basically fluff but for whatever reason it got me hyped on wendell

i'm really excited about the stabilizing influence carter, porter, young and satoransky could have on this team. if you've got four rock-solid role players in the rotation, you're doing a ton to put lauri and zach in a position to shine

ZOMG · Post #136 » by **ZOMG** » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:32 pm

nomorezorro wrote:yeah, if dunn is going to get any rotation minutes i think that's pretty clearly the best way to use him (primary ballhandler for the second unit).

the biggest problem with that plan would be it kind of limits the development of coby in that same role, but i don't think it would be a bad idea to get him to focus on off-ball stuff at first, because that's probably his quickest path to becoming an immediate contributor. then when dunn inevitably gets traded shift him over to do some more traditional PG work

I've become really sceptical about White's PG abilities. That might not be his true NBA role in the future. IMO he looks way too much like a less athletic Kris Dunn out there when he's trying to run the point.

Oh well, he's super young. I'm not sure he even should have an on-ball role this year. The talk about him playing 24 minutes of PG per game in a season when we're trying to win is ludicrous.

nomorezorro · Post #137 » by **nomorezorro** » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:37 pm

in theory he wouldn't have to do a ton of traditional PG stuff if he eventually becomes a starter and we retain the same nucleus, but i don't know if the odds of us moving forward with this core completely in tact are that high

i don't think we should be straining so hard to make the playoffs that we can't give some developmental minutes to coby to run the offense for the bench unit. don't need to get to 40 wins at the expense of the future of a guy we just drafted in the lottery. but yeah i also think there's a reasonable argument to be made that we should get him comfortable in a less demanding role this season

Post #138 » by **Michael Jackson** » Thu Oct 3, 2019 3:38 am

nomorezorro wrote:in theory he wouldn't have to do a ton of traditional PG stuff if he eventually becomes a starter and we retain the same nucleus, but i don't know if the odds of us moving forward with this core completely in tact are that high

i don't think we should be straining so hard to make the playoffs that we can't give some developmental minutes to coby to run the offense for the bench unit. don't need to get to 40 wins at the expense of the future of a guy we just drafted in the lottery. but yeah i also think there's a reasonable argument to be made that we should get him comfortable in a less demanding role this season

I don’t know. I think the psychological advantage on the team culture is important to improve on the intentional tank team it was the last two seasons. Pushing into the playoffs and not worrying about a draft pick does a lot for the culture. I mean this franchise has had a bad culture since Thibs left. The playoffs would wipe out a chunk of that loser culture that has been around. I don’t think sacrificing games to develop white is the right play if it looks like you can make an 8th seed. If this team falls flat on its face or isn’t in the hunt then yeah get him the PT. I thinking making the playoffs would help everyone develop more.

Post #139 » by **GimmeDat** » Thu Oct 3, 2019 5:34 am

I'm interested in that spot up versus pull up 3's stat. Because iirc, a lot of Dunn's 3's are the result of teams going under the screen or otherwise just giving him lots of space when he's the PnR ball-handler, and he tends to take a dribble to get himself into the rhythm of shooting it.

Chi · Post #140 » by **Chi** » Thu Oct 3, 2019 8:40 am

The thing about Dunn is, now even if he starts to break out and look like what the lottery pick projections said he would be. I still just don't want him on this team.

I just don't like his style of play for this roster. Obviously I love the Defense, but offensively (at his best) he'd just be a decent slasher/playmaker. Which isn't the worst thing in the world, but I really like the idea of having a shooter at PG.

It's borderline mandatory when it comes to winning now in the modern NBA.

So with that said, if he really is set to break out this year, I look forward to seeing what we can add to this roster in a trade for him.