Rui Hachimura

[payitforward]

You are absolutely right, prime, that we don't have a lot of good players! In fact, much of what you write above makes sense.

But, as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma had the 2d most minutes of any player on the Lakers! Brooks has said the goal for rookies this year on the Wizards is 1500 minutes. Now... it may not turn out that way, of course.

But, when you write "Personally, I think (Rui) already has the skills to excel in that scoring role," honestly, what does that even mean? How is that statement different, for example, from saying that you hope he has those skills? Asserting something doesn't make it so. Asserting it with more confidence doesn't make it any more likely that it's so.

You've never seen Rui Hachimura play in the NBA; none of us have. Nor did he dominate Summer League (not saying he played badly).

In fact, he didn't average 20 points a game in Sl!! But you think he's going to do that against NBA players? He shot 50% overall in SL? You think he's going to do that well against real NBA players? Better?

I hope that's not the expectation you or anyone has of Rui Hachimura.

[trast66]

The most minutes Brooks has ever played a rookie is James Harden @ less than 23 minutes per game.

I guess I missed on why all the exuberance on Rui’s first year, to me this guy is a bit of a project and could benefit from some G league time like Troy Brown last year, though this roster may be g league quality outside Brad and Bryant. His points per game are sort of meaningless this year. He needs to work on his defense, passing, shooting range and overall feel for the game.

[prime1time]

You are absolutely right, prime, that we don't have a lot of good players! In fact, much of what you write above makes sense.

But, as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma had the 2d most minutes of any player on the Lakers! Brooks has said the goal for rookies this year on the Wizards is 1500 minutes. Now... it may not turn out that way, of course.

But, when you write "Personally, I think (Rui) already has the skills to excel in that scoring roll," honestly, what does that even mean? How is that statement different, for example, from saying that you hope he has those skills? Asserting something doesn't make it so. Asserting it with more confidence doesn't make it any more likely that it's so.

You've never seen Rui Hachimura play in the NBA; none of us have. Nor did he dominate Summer League (not saying he played badly).

In fact, he didn't average 20 points a game in Sl!! But you think he's going to do that against NBA players? He shot 50% overall in SL? You think he's going to do that well against real NBA players? Better?

I hope that's not the expectation you or anyone has of Rui Hachimura.

Well, if you've read this thread in the entirety you already know what I think. Get's kind of tiresome to state the same thing over and over again. Before I get started, I want to point out that I started my post with a qualifier. I said, if he makes more than 2 3's a game, then I expect him to average between 20-24 ppg. If you go back and read my previous posts in this thread I already have youtube links, analysis, and projections on how the Wizards should use him as a player.

I took a short break from reading War and Peace to surf the web, so I'll restate and reword some of my initial statements from before.

First of all NBA regular season defense is a joke. The NBA is a very rudimentary league when it comes to playing defense. Even the best teams have nights where they come out and play no defense, so the notion that Rui is going to go against "NBA players" means nothing to me. NBA regular-season defense is not good.

Second of all, if you watch summer league you would have seen the same unorganized offense that I did. With a crafty ball handler that could run the pick and roll consistently, you could have easily added 4-6 points to Rui's point total. And he's already shown that he has the skills to do that right now.

Third of all, as has been reiterated numerous times in this thread, the only thing offensively that even the most critical posters in this thread can criticize in this thread is Rui's lack of high volume three-point shooting in college. From a schematic standpoint, if Rui's going to knock down 3's he becomes a very challenging player to stop. He's already a dynamic offensive player, but adding the 3-point shot will make him a true offensive force. And with 3's we are literally only talking about wide open 3's when the defense rotates.

So how will the Wizards use Rui? Obviously, the Wizards should just let Rui be Rui. Let him keep his mid-range game, but emphasizing the use of his low post game and his dribble-drive game. We don't want Rui taking a bunch of mid-range jumpers each game. We want him attacking the hoop, drawing fouls and attacking in the low post. Now you tell me, "But, he's a rookie." I don't care. Basketball is basketball. And if there's one thing we've seen in the NBA it is that skills translate. Rui did not grow up in the United States. He didn't just get by on athleticism and size and strength like the vast number of rookies who come into the league. He has a very fundamentally sound game.

The go-to play for our team this year should be the Brad/Rui pick and roll. Teams will play this obviously to take away Brad leaving Rui with a likely easy pick and pop and potential lob situation. Both things that Rui has shown he can do consistently. If the teams switch, then we should let Rui take his man into the post. With his strength and skill level in the low post, that will be a great matchup for us. Go back and watch his college games. Duke was bringing the double team in the post when he was matched-up against Zion in the low post. In addition, we have to factor in the fact that Rui was hurt by the significantly less spacing that the college game has. With players like Bertans and Beal to stretch the floor, most coaches will take their chances letting Rui go one-on-one vs. his defender. And this is where Rui will shine.

Throwing him the ball one-on-one vs his defenders, the other team's defenders staying home. Rui already has the skills to score in this situation. Triple threat jab steps, and drives to the hoop; Triple threat jab step to a running hook; triple threat jab step to a spin move; one-dribble pull-ups, mid-post-fadeaway jumpers; low-post up-and-under; low-post jump hooks with both hands; step-back jumpers; mid-post jab-step jumpers; ability to finish with both hands around the hoop; low-post drop steps. The array of scoring moves that Rui has in the mid and low post is astounding. When you combine those skills with the fact that he's a strong as an ox, and has great body control you have someone who I think should be looked upon as the 2nd option on this team. And we haven't even talked about his ability to finish through contact with his strength and his ability to draw fouls (Rui averaged 6 ft attempts a game in college).

Now with all that being said, does this mean that if he doesn't come out and averaged 20 ppg I'm going to call for him to be traded or claim that he's a bust? No. But what it does mean, that something is off. Either we are not using him right. Or there's a critical flaw that I've missed. Or perhaps he struggles to adapt to the speed of the game. Regardless of what it is, my analysis of him and my projection for him will change. Just like it changed after I watched him in the summer league, and it changed after I watched him in FIBA qualifiers and the subsequent FIBA tournament. I look at players, I analyze, I project and then as I get more data I update my analysis.

At the end of the day, I'm not trying to convince you of anything.

[prime1time]

You are absolutely right, prime, that we don't have a lot of good players! In fact, much of what you write above makes sense.

But, as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma had the 2d most minutes of any player on the Lakers! Brooks has said the goal for rookies this year on the Wizards is 1500 minutes. Now... it may not turn out that way, of course.

But, when you write "Personally, I think (Rui) already has the skills to excel in that scoring role," honestly, what does that even mean? How is that statement different, for example, from saying that you hope he has those skills? Asserting something doesn't make it so. Asserting it with more confidence doesn't make it any more likely that it's so.

You've never seen Rui Hachimura play in the NBA; none of us have. Nor did he dominate Summer League (not saying he played badly).

In fact, he didn't average 20 points a game in Sl!! But you think he's going to do that against NBA players? He shot 50% overall in SL? You think he's going to do that well against real NBA players? Better?

I hope that's not the expectation you or anyone has of Rui Hachimura.

And to answer your question, yes that is the expectation I have for him. Hopefully, the people leading our team have the same expectations. You'll never know what someone is capable of unless you expect greatness from them. Here's a question, what's the reasoning behind setting arbitrary low expectations for a player? I've read every post of yours in this thread. And I can't remember even once an actual analysis of Rui from you based on his skills of what you expect. I understand you love your offensive rebound and creating extra possessions esque analysis, but I must say that I evaluate basketball players completly differently. I care about the tape. I care about actual basketball skills. I want to see if a player has actual basketball feel. This thinking forms the core of my analysis.

Also, as far as the 1500 minute goal goes, I heard the same thing. But go back and listen to his press conferences and put that goal in context. He was talking about trying to get the rookies a combined total of 1500 minutes. The underlying premise being that that would be a combined 1500 minutes between the Go-Go and the WIzards. To put it another way, he was likely not referring to Rui, who I expect to be on the Wizards roster the entire season. Think about it, 1500/82 = 18 minutes a game. Arbitrarily limiting Rui's minutes to 18 and some change a game is silly.

[prime1time]

The most minutes Brooks has ever played a rookie is James Harden @ less than 23 minutes per game.

I guess I missed on why all the exuberance on Rui’s first year, to me this guy is a bit of a project and could benefit from some G league time like Troy Brown last year, though this roster may be g league quality outside Brad and Bryant. His points per game are sort of meaningless this year. He needs to work on his defense, passing, shooting range and overall feel for the game.

Where did you get that number? Scott Brooks coached 69 games for the Thunder in 2008-2009. Westbrook averaged 32.5 minutes a game. Second of all, I must admit reading your post made me smile. You think Rui would benefit from playing on the G-leage team this year? What does that even mean? Why wouldn't he get minutes on this team? Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Rui is already better than Thomas Bryant. Bryant had an absolutely horrendous defensive rating on shot's defended near the hoop.

Third of all, why the Rui hate? I don't understand. What were you saying in Brad's rookie season? Or Otto's rookie season? Or Kelly Oubre's rookie season? Obviously he has to work on those things, he's a rookie. It took Bradley Beal 4 years to post a per above 15.5. Assuming you were a fan back then, were you only focusing on what Bradley couldn't do and what Bradley struggled with?

I know it sounds shocking, but some of us actually like to be excited and hopeful about our team. To put it another way, some fans choose to highlight the aspects of rookies that are good, while at the same time being cognizant of the fact that they are rookies and still need to improve. So yes, if Rui averages a high ppg total I'm going to be happy. I know that sounds crazy because he won't be a perfect player and he'll still have flaws. But it is what it is.

[Illmatic12]

I don’t expect Hachimura to score at an elite rate from day 1, unless his shooting improves much quicker than I anticipate (would love to be wrong tho). I also don’t necessarily think that looking to forcefeed him as a 20ppg scorer right away would be best for his development.

He definitely has a good touch and nice arsenal of moves when he gets the ball in his spots, I just worry that NBA teams will really scout his tendencies on film and deny him clean looks. It’s possible he’s just one of those players who will shoot an insane % on contested twos but even then I doubt he will want to take that many, the coaching staff will likely train him to pass to an open teammate in those situations.

Iirc Rui said himself that he’s still learning to adjust to NBA spacing and schemes, and working on his 3pt shot. It’s a lot different from college. He has to learn how to play from certain angles and areas of the court where the defense can’t really stop him from getting a clean look or driving lanes.

If you look at the typical “Horns” set that every NBA team runs you wanna have a spot up guy in each corner, a creative PnR guard in the middle, and two bigs posted at that 45-degree angle around the elbow , so the guard can choose either side to call for a screen and decide how to dissect the D. That’s basically the 101 of modern NBA offense that every team uses to stretch the floor.



If that player at the 4 or 5 is equally capable of setting a screen, slashing, or popping back and shoot a three they’re effectively unpredictable and thus unguardable. That’s why Otto didn’t really work out as a legit 3rd option, if you put him in that location he couldn’t really do anything but shoot a three so you might as well use him as the spot-up guy parked in the corner. The whole potential of drafting Rui is that he could be a great slasher and mismatch scorer operating beyond the 3pt line at that 45-degree angle of the court (I’ll call it “above-the-break”) which is the most dangerous area to put a dynamic wing/big, it’s also geometrically the furthest 3pt so the defense has to really cover a lot of ground to guard out there.

For Rui to be really good as an NBA 3/4, he’s gonna have to develop a consistent above-the-break 3pter . Think about how Antawn Jamison used to play. Once defenders knew Tawn could hit that three they started running out at him, thats when he could choose an attack angle, put the ball on the floor and use his creativity to get a shot off/draw FTs. Someone mentioned Kyle Kuzma, the reason why he was able to pop out and average 16-18ppg from day 1 is bc he was already used to shooting deep threes in college with no hesitation. Watch Kuzma below as a rookie, notice how any time he has the ball in that 45-degree ATB zone the defense immediately rushes at him, once you can operate from that angle they are at your mercy

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Slashers need to be really consistent with that shot, it opens up everything. If you can only shoot corner threes or midrange the spacing doesn’t work. With Rui I think he clearly has the skill to do it, he just has to get used to the fact that the majority of offensive sets require him being a threat to shoot that ATB 3pter as his FIRST option not the last resort.

You can even see in this clip here , Rui hits an off-dribble ATB three and Tommy is smiling because that’s exactly why they drafted him. If he hits that shot he can score a LOT of points in this league

Read on Twitter

Or here in this clip, you can tell the Wizards wanted him to work on that exact shot bc it’s where he’ll be operating in the NBA. All the cute midrange stuff is icing on the cake but not what makes a consistent 20ppg wing scorer

Read on Twitter

?s=21


To me, I think Rui can easily average double digits as a rookie purely on talent , hustling in transition etc. But to truly become an All-Star level scorer he will likely need another few offseasons to fine tune his game to the NBA style, and also polish his ballhandling+shooting.

[payitforward]

You are absolutely right, prime, that we don't have a lot of good players! In fact, much of what you write above makes sense.

But, as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma had the 2d most minutes of any player on the Lakers! Brooks has said the goal for rookies this year on the Wizards is 1500 minutes. Now... it may not turn out that way, of course.

But, when you write "Personally, I think (Rui) already has the skills to excel in that scoring roll," honestly, what does that even mean? How is that statement different, for example, from saying that you hope he has those skills? Asserting something doesn't make it so. Asserting it with more confidence doesn't make it any more likely that it's so.

You've never seen Rui Hachimura play in the NBA; none of us have. Nor did he dominate Summer League (not saying he played badly).

In fact, he didn't average 20 points a game in Sl!! But you think he's going to do that against NBA players? He shot 50% overall in SL? You think he's going to do that well against real NBA players? Better?

I hope that's not the expectation you or anyone has of Rui Hachimura.

Well, if you've read this thread in the entirety you already know what I think. Get's kind of tiresome to state the same thing over and over again. Before I get started, I want to point out that I started my post with a qualifier. I said, if he makes more than 2 3's a game, then I expect him to average between 20-24 ppg. If you go back and read my previous posts in this thread I already have youtube links, analysis, and projections on how the Wizards should use him as a player.

I took a short break from reading War and Peace to surf the web, so I'll restate and reword some of my initial statements from before.

First of all NBA regular season defense is a joke. The NBA is a very rudimentary league when it comes to playing defense. Even the best teams have nights where they come out and play no defense, so the notion that Rui is going to go against "NBA players" means nothing to me. NBA regular-season defense is not good.

Second of all, if you watch summer league you would have seen the same unorganized offense that I did. With a crafty ball handler that could run the pick and roll consistently, you could have easily added 4-6 points to Rui's point total. And he's already shown that he has the skills to do that right now.

Third of all, as has been reiterated numerous times in this thread, the only thing offensively that even the most critical posters in this thread can criticize in this thread is Rui's lack of high volume three-point shooting in college. From a schematic standpoint, if Rui's going to knock down 3's he becomes a very challenging player to stop. He's already a dynamic offensive player, but adding the 3-point shot will make him a true offensive force. And with 3's we are literally only talking about wide open 3's when the defense rotates.

So how will the Wizards use Rui? Obviously, the Wizards should just let Rui be Rui. Let him keep his mid-range game, but emphasizing the use of his low post game and his dribble-drive game. We don't want Rui taking a bunch of mid-range jumpers each game. We want him attacking the hoop, drawing fouls and attacking in the low post. Now you tell me, "But, he's a rookie." I don't care. Basketball is basketball. And if there's one thing we've seen in the NBA it is that skills translate. Rui did not grow up in the United States. He didn't just get by on athleticism and size and strength like the vast number of rookies who come into the league. He has a very fundamentally sound game.

The go-to play for our team this year should be the Brad/Rui pick and roll. Teams will play this obviously to take away Brad leaving Rui with a likely easy pick and pop and potential lob situation. Both things that Rui has shown he can do consistently. If the teams switch, then we should let Rui take his man into the post. With his strength and skill level in the low post, that will be a great matchup for us. Go back and watch his college games. Duke was bringing the double team in the post when he was matched-up against Zion in the low post. In addition, we have to factor in the fact that Rui was hurt by the significantly less spacing that the college game has. With players like Bertans and Beal to stretch the floor, most coaches will take their chances letting Rui go one-on-one vs. his defender. And this is where Rui will shine.

Throwing him the ball one-on-one vs his defenders, the other team's defenders staying home. Rui already has the skills to score in this situation. Triple threat jab steps, and drives to the hoop; Triple threat jab step to a running hook; triple threat jab step to a spin move; one-dribble pull-ups, mid-post-fadeaway jumpers; low-post up-and-under; low-post jump hooks with both hands; step-back jumpers; mid-post jab-step jumpers; ability to finish with both hands around the hoop; low-post drop steps. The array of scoring moves that Rui has in the mid and low post is astounding. When you combine those skills with the fact that he's a strong as an ox, and has great body control you have someone who I think should be looked upon as the 2nd option on this team. And we haven't even talked about his ability to finish through contact with his strength and his ability to draw fouls (Rui averaged 6 ft attempts a game in college).

Now with all that being said, does this mean that if he doesn't come out and averaged 20 ppg I'm going to call for him to be traded or claim that he's a bust? No. But what it does mean, that something is off. Either we are not using him right. Or there's a critical flaw that I've missed. Or perhaps he struggles to adapt to the speed of the game. Regardless of what it is, my analysis of him and my projection for him will change. Just like it changed after I watched him in the summer league, and it changed after I watched him in FIBA qualifiers and the subsequent FIBA tournament. I look at players, I analyze, I project and then as I get more data I update my analysis.

At the end of the day, I'm not trying to convince you of anything.

Correct -- & why would you bother? I don't have a crystal ball!

That's a very thoughtful post on your part. If it turns out you're right, all the better.

[payitforward]

Illmatic laying down some informed perspective!

Prime -- I'm not arguing with you about anything. We all want the same thing!

[payitforward]

I just realized... we have our first pre-season game on Monday. Vs. the Knicks.

Really looking forward to it!

[Jamaaliver]

How to Mask Every Top Rookie's Biggest Flaw

Washington Wizards and Rui Hachimura

Biggest flaw: Long-range shooting, feel for game

Game plan to mask flaw: Play him with Bradley Beal and frontcourt shooters

In 102 career games at Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura made 24 threes and committed 120 turnovers to 81 assists.

Washington Wizards head coach Scott Brooks will want to surround his rookie with the team's best players and shooters.

Hachimura should start at power forward and play whenever Beal is on the floor. The Japanese prospect's lowlights appear when he locks into scoring on his own and the tunnel vision hits.

Hachimura prefers to operate from the short elbows and short corners, so for spacing purposes, it also makes sense to play him with CJ Miles and either Davis Bertans or Thomas Bryant, who's becoming a credible three-point threat (33-of-99 last season).

Bleacher Report

[Kanyewest]

23 points per game seems to high but I would be curious what is the over/under for points for Rui for a successful season? Also what would be his over/under for rebounds?

[payitforward]

I'm not very interested in the question of how many ppg Rui scores.

I'm very interested in how his overall game develops. His defense, his rebounding, his court awareness, his passing, etc.

His 3-point shot as well, of course, but, still, how many points a player scores, Rui or anyone, is not a measure of his game.

[DCZards]

Dub post.

[DCZards]

I'm not very interested in the question of how many ppg Rui scores.

I'm very interested in how his overall game develops. His defense, his rebounding, his court awareness, his passing, etc.

His 3-point shot as well, of course, but, still, how many points a player scores, Rui or anyone, is not a measure of his game.

PIF, I agree that there is far more to a player's game than scoring. And it is indeed the development of Rui's overall game that matters most.

But I think that you too often overlook or understate the importance of scoring. Scoring is indeed a measure of Rui's game, as well as that of any other basketball player. Rebounding, defense, passing, scoring...they are ALL measures of a player's game.

Here are the top 5 NBA scorers of all-time:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Karl Malone
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Michael Jordan

Kareem, Jordan or James is arguably the GOAT, imo. (Jabbar gets my my vote.) Certainly all three did much more than score, but scoring was a big and important aspect of their greatness.

[payitforward]

I'm not very interested in the question of how many ppg Rui scores.

I'm very interested in how his overall game develops. His defense, his rebounding, his court awareness, his passing, etc.

His 3-point shot as well, of course, but, still, how many points a player scores, Rui or anyone, is not a measure of his game.

Here are the top 5 NBA scorers of all-time:
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
2 Karl Malone 36,928
3 Kobe Bryant 33,643
4 LeBRON JAMES 32,543
5 Michael Jordan

All extremely great players. But, you make my point for me, Zards.

Was either Malone or Kobe as good a player as Michael Jordan? Nope. Yet, look... there they are above MJ in points scored. IOW, "How many points a player scores... is not a measure of his game." Not even at the very top.

Obviously, that doesn't imply that it's not good to score a lot of points. Assuming you're doing it at high %s, of course it is.

Hell, we could do this with simple syllogism:

All human beings are mortal.
My dog Lulu is mortal.
My dog Lulu is a human being.

Doesn't work, right? Called the "undistributed middle." Now try this:

All good players score a lot of points.
Joe scores a lot of points.
Joe is a good player.

No better. But... this is ok:

All human beings are mortal.
My dog Lulu is a human being.
My dog Lulu is mortal.

No problem with the logic -- only with the facts claimed in one of the premises (my dog Lulu is NOT a human being)

All good players score a lot of points.
Joe is a good player.
Joe scores a lot of points.

Again, no problem with the logic. If you want to question the conclusion, you have to question the facts of the premisses: do *all* good players score a lot of points? Nah.

We all want Rui to become a good player -- a great player! We'd also like him to score a lot of points. Why not? But, this year, I really hope we are all focused on his development towards becoming a terrific NBA player not on how many points he scores.

[Ruzious]

And as we know, there's so much more to defense than steals and blocks. (Btw, I had a smug superior expression as I typed that - very satisfying).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not very interested in the question of how many ppg Rui scores.

I'm very interested in how his overall game develops. His defense, his rebounding, his court awareness, his passing, etc.

His 3-point shot as well, of course, but, still, how many points a player scores, Rui or anyone, is not a measure of his game.

PIF, IMO you're absolutely correct that Brandon Clarke would have been the (much better) pick for the Wizards. He's naturally adept at doing the things that help teams win.

Rui will need to be an intense competitor at the defensive end, kind of like DETROIT PISTON Rip Hamilton, if he's to maximize his effectiveness. I can tell Rui's going to get buckets (a la Antawn Jamison). Hachimura seems to me to be like Carmelo Anthony. He can be the lead player on a championship team.

(People forget Carmelo Anthony was a winner at Syracuse and on the Olympic team. I think Rui can be really good.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And as we know, there's so much more to defense than steals and blocks. (Btw, I had a smug superior expression as I typed that - very satisfying).

I'm curious to see how NBA BPM and VORP and Win Score per 40 play out for Clarke vs Hachimura.

[Ruzious]

And as we know, there's so much more to defense than steals and blocks. (Btw, I had a smug superior expression as I typed that - very satisfying).

I'm curious to see how NBA BPM and VORP and Win Score per 40 play out for Clarke vs Hachimura.

Are deflections included in any of those? I always sometimes thought that was an important part of defense - messing up the opposition's flow.

[DCZards]

I'm not very interested in the question of how many ppg Rui scores.

I'm very interested in how his overall game develops. His defense, his rebounding, his court awareness, his passing, etc.

His 3-point shot as well, of course, but, still, how many points a player scores, Rui or anyone, is not a measure of his game.

Here are the top 5 NBA scorers of all-time:
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
2 Karl Malone 36,928
3 Kobe Bryant 33,643
4 LeBRON JAMES 32,543
5 Michael Jordan

All extremely great players. But, you make my point for me, Zards.

Actually, you missed my point, PIF. So I'll repeat it: Rebounding, defense, passing, scoring...they are ALL measures of a player's game.

Or are you saying that only the first three--and not scoring--are measures of a player's game?