Rookie Discussion [19/20] [part I]

[Duke4life831]

i think darius garland is flying so under the radar... put up huge stats on great efficiency in the games and it led to winning (vanderbilt was 4-0 with him, 5-23 without him). he put up 20/5/3 on great efficiency in four games, and that includes a complete dud vs. alcorn state.

This is a good example of small sample size problems—if you take out just ONE good game against a weak team (Liberty), his stats actually kinda suck. 15/4/3, 4 TOs per game, 45% from the field on big minutes, 34mpg. Those are mediocre and would count against most prospects, certainly wouldn’t make a case for them by themselves. (Not to mention that the games he played were against nothing teams, warm up games against small conference teams before the real ones started.) We really don’t know if his full season would’ve ended up looking really nice (like if his season ended right after 4 games) or pretty blah (like if it ended after 3 games), have to look at other things to make the case for or against him.

Yup. Garland is such a major wildcard because we saw basically nothing from him. We never saw him play in the grind of a conference schedule and deal with the higher quality of opposition and higher level of coaching. If the same thing happened to Cam and his season ended after just 5 games, this is what his stats would've looked like.

17/4/2 with 2 steals in just 23 minutes a game on 42% shooting from 3 on 8 attempts a game, 94% from the line and a 62 TS%. And he actually put those numbers up against quality teams. In those 5 games he faced Kentucky, Auburn and SDSU. Cam would've been locked in at the #2 pick if he didnt play another game after the Auburn game.

Just goes to show how sample size can really change things.

[Marcus]

here for the fireworks. some of the takes in here already are brow raising.

I'm going with Ja or Zion depending on how long it takes Ja to get acclimated to the PG position at this level. I expect and up and down season early and then him figuring it out and balling out once he does.

If i'm Nawlins i'm giving Zion NO offensive responsibility until I think he's ready for decision making. I'm table setting for that kid all year since i have the personnel to do it. With that said i fully expect Zion to still get his and look good doing so off of energy alone which when backed by the already in place hype machine he could lock it up pretty early in the season like Luka and Ben before him.

RJ will take a minute but he's in a situation where he could be the conduit to look like a complete stud IF he utilizes his entire game like he started to towards the end of summer league. Only problem is the Knicks have a ton of ball dominant young guys that are all looking to prove themselves in some way or another. How long it takes Fiz to assign jobs and responsibilities coupled with how long it takes kids to accept that will be a huge factor IMO.

Cam & DeAndre will depend on who fits better in Trae's world and as it stands the roles and responsibilities of both kids will likely be the same unless Cam's ISO and playmaking come out and force him into some ball handling responsibilities. I look at the system being catered to Trae Nash and Amare Collins with Huerter, Hunter, and Cam being 3&D plus guys RN. Whomever does that the best will likely emerge as guy number 3 in some capacity.

[Duke4life831]

here for the fireworks. some of the takes in here already are brow raising.

I'm going with Ja or Zion depending on how long it takes Ja to get acclimated to the PG position at this level. I expect and up and down season early and then him figuring it out and balling out once he does.

If i'm Nawlins i'm giving Zion NO offensive responsibility until I think he's ready for decision making. I'm table setting for that kid all year since i have the personnel to do it. With that said i fully expect Zion to still get his and look good doing so off of energy alone which when backed by the already in place hype machine he could lock it up pretty early in the season like Luka and Ben before him.

RJ will take a minute but he's in a situation where he could be the conduit to look like a complete stud IF he utilizes his entire game like he started to towards the end of summer league. Only problem is the Knicks have a ton of ball dominant young guys that are all looking to prove themselves in some way or another. How long it takes Fiz to assign jobs and responsibilities coupled with how long it takes kids to accept that will be a huge factor IMO.

Cam & DeAndre will depend on who fits better in Trae's world and as it stands the roles and responsibilities of both kids will likely be the same unless Cam's ISO and playmaking come out and force him into some ball handling responsibilities. I look at the system being catered to Trae Nash and Amare Collins with Huerter, Hunter, and Cam being 3&D plus guys RN. Whomever does that the best will likely emerge as guy number 3 in some capacity.

I expect Zion to get most of his opportunities off being the big in the PnR (still cant believe K pretty much refused to use him in that situation) and off of transition and energy plays. Marvin Bagley was a 21ppg per 36 guy in a similar role last year for the Kings. But I think with Lonzo and Holiday he can be more effective in the PnR. Im also very intrigued to see a Ingram/Zion PnR. I have a feeling that can be very deadly. Depending on minutes, I can see Zion being a 18-20/8 guy on great efficiency.

[Marcus]

here for the fireworks. some of the takes in here already are brow raising.

I'm going with Ja or Zion depending on how long it takes Ja to get acclimated to the PG position at this level. I expect and up and down season early and then him figuring it out and balling out once he does.

If i'm Nawlins i'm giving Zion NO offensive responsibility until I think he's ready for decision making. I'm table setting for that kid all year since i have the personnel to do it. With that said i fully expect Zion to still get his and look good doing so off of energy alone which when backed by the already in place hype machine he could lock it up pretty early in the season like Luka and Ben before him.

RJ will take a minute but he's in a situation where he could be the conduit to look like a complete stud IF he utilizes his entire game like he started to towards the end of summer league. Only problem is the Knicks have a ton of ball dominant young guys that are all looking to prove themselves in some way or another. How long it takes Fiz to assign jobs and responsibilities coupled with how long it takes kids to accept that will be a huge factor IMO.

Cam & DeAndre will depend on who fits better in Trae's world and as it stands the roles and responsibilities of both kids will likely be the same unless Cam's ISO and playmaking come out and force him into some ball handling responsibilities. I look at the system being catered to Trae Nash and Amare Collins with Huerter, Hunter, and Cam being 3&D plus guys RN. Whomever does that the best will likely emerge as guy number 3 in some capacity.

I expect Zion to get most of his opportunities off being the big in the PnR (still cant believe K pretty much refused to use him in that situation) and off of transition and energy plays. Marvin Bagley was a 21ppg per 36 guy in a similar role last year for the Kings. But I think with Lonzo and Holiday he can be more effective in the PnR. Im also very intrigued to see a Ingram/Zion PnR. I have a feeling that can be very deadly. Depending on minutes, I can see Zion being a 18-20/8 guy on great efficiency.

yeah that's what i expect as well. I think i said it in another thread he should be used similar to AD in his rookie year and then allow him to grow into the responsibilities coupled with being a franchise guy.

[clyde21]

i think darius garland is flying so under the radar... put up huge stats on great efficiency in the games and it led to winning (vanderbilt was 4-0 with him, 5-23 without him). he put up 20/5/3 on great efficiency in four games, and that includes a complete dud vs. alcorn state.

This is a good example of small sample size problems—if you take out just ONE good game against a weak team (Liberty), his stats actually kinda suck. 15/4/3, 4 TOs per game, 45% from the field on big minutes, 34mpg. Those are mediocre and would count against most prospects, certainly wouldn’t make a case for them by themselves. (Not to mention that the games he played were against nothing teams, warm up games against small conference teams before the real ones started.) We really don’t know if his full season would’ve ended up looking really nice (like if his season ended right after 4 games) or pretty blah (like if it ended after 3 games), have to look at other things to make the case for or against him.

Yup. Garland is such a major wildcard because we saw basically nothing from him. We never saw him play in the grind of a conference schedule and deal with the higher quality of opposition and higher level of coaching. If the same thing happened to Cam and his season ended after just 5 games, this is what his stats would've looked like.

17/4/2 with 2 steals in just 23 minutes a game on 42% shooting from 3 on 8 attempts a game, 94% from the line and a 62 TS%. And he actually put those numbers up against quality teams. In those 5 games he faced Kentucky, Auburn and SDSU. Cam would've been locked in at the #2 pick if he didnt play another game after the Auburn game.

Just goes to show how sample size can really change things.

true to an extent, but you didn't need 30 games to see what Garland is capable of physically, he can do things very few can with the ball, might have the best ball skills since Kyrie (who was also drafted #1 overall after a very small sample size)

[clyde21]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

[sfernald]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

Blake Griffin was 22.5/12/4 his rookie year. I’m sure Zion will be right there, with no doubt much better D.

[clyde21]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

Blake Griffin was 22.5/12/4 his rookie year. I’m sure Zion will be right there, with no doubt much better D.

rookie year*

and Griffin stayed two years at oklahoma, Zion's was a true 18-year-old draft pick.

[sfernald]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

Blake Griffin was 22.5/12/4 his rookie year. I’m sure Zion will be right there, with no doubt much better D.

rookie year*

and Griffin stayed two years at oklahoma, Zion's was a true 18-year-old draft pick.

He also missed his first year in the NBA due to injury. However, I still expect similar results from Zion considering he’s even better.

[Chanel Bomber]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

His gravity in the pick-and-roll is going to be something else.

[Marcus]

Zion will be 20/8 off the bat, people have no idea what's about to hit the NBA.

His gravity in the pick-and-roll is going to be something else.

And as Duke mentioned earlier. The PnR options between Jrue, Zo, and B.I. will only make it that much worse. Also with Zion being a capable passer, I wouldn't be shocked to see some big to big lobs with Zion/Favors or Zion/Hayes as the year goes on similar to what Blake did with DJ in LA and what Draymond has done with JaVale, Damion Jones and the likes in Golden State.

There's a lot to work with even in it's simplicity. Which is why i think they should keep it as rudimentary as possible with that kid early on. He should get the majority of his touches off movement into open space where he can catch, one move, and bounce. do the rest of his eating off of effort plays and transition finishes. Absolutely no need to rush anything with a proven 20ppg guy and 6'9" wing who is finding his spots on the floor to produce near or better than 20 himself.

[Marcus]

This is a good example of small sample size problems—if you take out just ONE good game against a weak team (Liberty), his stats actually kinda suck. 15/4/3, 4 TOs per game, 45% from the field on big minutes, 34mpg. Those are mediocre and would count against most prospects, certainly wouldn’t make a case for them by themselves. (Not to mention that the games he played were against nothing teams, warm up games against small conference teams before the real ones started.) We really don’t know if his full season would’ve ended up looking really nice (like if his season ended right after 4 games) or pretty blah (like if it ended after 3 games), have to look at other things to make the case for or against him.

Yup. Garland is such a major wildcard because we saw basically nothing from him. We never saw him play in the grind of a conference schedule and deal with the higher quality of opposition and higher level of coaching. If the same thing happened to Cam and his season ended after just 5 games, this is what his stats would've looked like.

17/4/2 with 2 steals in just 23 minutes a game on 42% shooting from 3 on 8 attempts a game, 94% from the line and a 62 TS%. And he actually put those numbers up against quality teams. In those 5 games he faced Kentucky, Auburn and SDSU. Cam would've been locked in at the #2 pick if he didnt play another game after the Auburn game.

Just goes to show how sample size can really change things.

true to an extent, but you didn't need 30 games to see what Garland is capable of physically, he can do things very few can with the ball, might have the best ball skills since Kyrie (who was also drafted #1 overall after a very small sample size)

how probable do you think it is that Sexton/Garland can pull off "Dame/CJ East"

[Goudelock]

I'm trying to figure out who this year's Wiggins/Noel duo will be this year. You know, the one that fans spend pages debating and trolling about.

[Marcus]

I'm trying to figure out who this year's Wiggins/Noel duo will be this year. You know, the one that fans spend pages debating and trolling about.

the Duke boys likely

[HotelVitale]

true to an extent, but you didn't need 30 games to see what Garland is capable of physically, he can do things very few can with the ball, might have the best ball skills since Kyrie (who was also drafted #1 overall after a very small sample size)

Think you're tripping a little here Clyde. I haven't seen anything to suggest Garland has one of the best handles in the game, which is what he'd need to have to be the best since Kyrie; it looks to me like they're a nice asset for a prospect, which might or might not make a big difference in the NBA. (He has a nice little hesi-crossover for example but I don't know if he has enough shake to use that to get past a good NBA defender one-on-one, and if not then it's just playground stuff.) Also I know you didn't really compare him deeply to Kyrie, but Kyrie was far more a sure thing shooter as a shooter, also played in 3 times as many games as Garland and was way, way better overall. Garland's advanced stats were pretty mediocre for a NBA prospect and Kyrie's were dominant.

I like Garland as a prospect and thought he was a good pick but to my eyes you're really just gambling on him as a high-level shooter. If he can drill 28-30 ft stepbacks at an average rate, knock down floaters and quick-twitch midrange jumpers with defenders on his hip, etc then he has the related skills to make himself really, really good. But hitting those shots at average or better rates are extremely hard to do and he's not dominant enough at anything else to make it if he's not doing that. We don't have enough info to project that stuff safely with most NCAA guys, and we have almost nothing to do it with Garland so it's kind of a shot in the dark.

[clyde21]

Yup. Garland is such a major wildcard because we saw basically nothing from him. We never saw him play in the grind of a conference schedule and deal with the higher quality of opposition and higher level of coaching. If the same thing happened to Cam and his season ended after just 5 games, this is what his stats would've looked like.

17/4/2 with 2 steals in just 23 minutes a game on 42% shooting from 3 on 8 attempts a game, 94% from the line and a 62 TS%. And he actually put those numbers up against quality teams. In those 5 games he faced Kentucky, Auburn and SDSU. Cam would've been locked in at the #2 pick if he didnt play another game after the Auburn game.

Just goes to show how sample size can really change things.

true to an extent, but you didn't need 30 games to see what Garland is capable of physically, he can do things very few can with the ball, might have the best ball skills since Kyrie (who was also drafted #1 overall after a very small sample size)

how probable do you think it is that Sexton/Garland can pull off "Dame/CJ East"

ehh, both would have to real develop their off-ball games in terms of recognition, movement and spot-up shooting to make it work, even more so Sexton...honestly I'd rather flip Sexton at this point.

[clyde21]

true to an extent, but you didn't need 30 games to see what Garland is capable of physically, he can do things very few can with the ball, might have the best ball skills since Kyrie (who was also drafted #1 overall after a very small sample size)

Think you're tripping a little here Clyde. I haven't seen anything to suggest Garland has one of the best handles in the game, which is what he'd need to have to be the best since Kyrie; it looks to me like they're a nice asset for a prospect, which might or might not make a big difference in the NBA. (He has a nice little hesi-crossover for example but I don't know if he has enough shake to use that to get past a good NBA defender one-on-one, and if not then it's just playground stuff.) Also I know you didn't really compare him deeply to Kyrie, but Kyrie was far more a sure thing shooter as a shooter, also played in 3 times as many games as Garland and was way, way better overall. Garland's advanced stats were pretty mediocre for a NBA prospect and Kyrie's were dominant.

I like Garland as a prospect and thought he was a good pick but to my eyes you're really just gambling on him as a high-level shooter. If he can drill 28-30 ft stepbacks at an average rate, knock down floaters and quick-twitch midrange jumpers with defenders on his hip, etc then he has the related skills to make himself really, really good. But hitting those shots at average or better rates are extremely hard to do and he's not dominant enough at anything else to make it if he's not doing that. We don't have enough info to project that stuff safely with most NCAA guys, and we have almost nothing to do it with Garland so it's kind of a shot in the dark.

who since Kyrie coming out has better ball skills than Garland? you can make a case for Trae but that's about it.

[clyde21]

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[Marcus]

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didn't see him in college but was impressed with him during summer league. covers a ton of ground and stays sooooper active.

[Dacost]

Half of the guys didn t even play summer league.

It's so hard to predict the future right now even with Zion.