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Political Roundtable Part XXVI

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1721 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:25 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:i object to the rallying cry of "fixing the tax code"

The rich aren't so much abusing the tax code to get rich but rather they have so much money that the tax laws are insignificant.

There's no "fixing" the tax code that would magically result in a more egalitarian distribution of wealth. The government didn't pick winners and losers, capitalism by design allocates resources in a way where there are winners and losers by definition*. This is just what late stage capitalism looks like.

Are there opportunities for abuse within the tax system? Absolutely. However, getting rid of those abuses (sheltering money) isn't going to reverse the trend of growing wealth inequality.

Also, I agree that Warren doesn't have the answers but I question if anyone has the answers. I'm ambivalent to a wealth tax, but I think that as a nation, the U.S. needs to edge towards embracing certain socialism policies to counteract the effects of growing wealth inequality. I also caution against having too harsh a stance against Warren because she proposed a flawed policy (much like taking a harsh stance against AOC). Perfect is the enemy of good.

First - if Warren is the nominee - I will be out walking for her. And that looks like it will be the case with Biden tied up in the Ukraine and folks wondering if Bernie will even make it to the election.

Second, of course fixing the tax code would take care of much of the problem. Tax receipts would go up and our social programs would be sustainable - that should be the #1 A++ issue. If earned income was taxed the same as investment income you wouldn't see near the disparity. If you fixed the loopholes with non-profits they couldn't move their money there and still maintain control without paying taxes on that income. If you took off the cap on payroll taxes that would also insure a fair tax rate. We got in this mess in the first place because of the tax code.

Fixing the tax code and getting tax receipts back to where they belong reduces (after transfers) income disparities.

When you talk about reducing wealth inequality then you have to force people to save money and invest in real estate, etc. But none of the proposals are advocating that. They are advocating funding of new programs not using the receipts of the new taxes to reduce wealth disparity directly. Another way to say it... 0/1,000,000,000 is still 0 or 1,000,000,000/0 is still infinity regardless of the number.

And define socialist policy. We are a democracy (political system) with social programs funded by capitalism. The only thing out of whack here is that congress bailed a long-time ago on their duties to manage receipts, outlays and continual streamlining and optimization of our social programs.

But maybe that is the key. Warren has been in the senate long enough to know that change isn't coming quickly. So she is proposing a quick fix vs. doing it the right way.

My 1/2 cent


1) I agree with all your suggestions 100%. This is low hanging fruit.
2) Furthermore, we got in this mess because of a decades long stealth campaign to cut taxes to the rich, and raise taxes on everyone else, starting with Reagan. With the GOP tax giveaway last year the ultra wealthy are paying LOWER taxes than everyone else. So the problem we are in now is a direct effect of really, really evil tax code shenanigans by the GOP. It is a tax code issue that will be solved by fixing the tax code to force the uber wealthy to pay more, not because it's fair but because every billionaire is a democracy-destroying policy failure. If we can manage to hold the tax code stable over the next few decades, yes, the problem will eventually be fixed.

So. Yes, we could fix our worst-in-the-developed-world wealth disparity tomorrow with a one-time 75% wealth tax, but the tax code would still need to be changed or we'll just end up back where we started 20 years from now.

As far as building the wealth of poor people, we need to think about why we have an increasing number of people in the informal economy. I have a guy who comes and mows my lawn in Anacostia, insists on me paying in cash because he doesn't have a bank account. The second time he did it the guy next door mugged him and took the cash. Guy drives around a little mini-motorcycle, got in an accident, broke his leg and has no insurance, has spent the last six weeks paying another guy to mow the lawn for him. Why doesn't he make a little landscaping business, formalize the business, get a bank account so I can pay with checks or credit cards, so his cash doesn't get stolen? Hire his guys formally and pay social security? Because it's fricking complicated and expensive.

Interestingly, he has a cash app now that charges $3 PER TRANSACTION. That's how much he's willing to pay to avoid having a bank account. I don't think he's selling drugs (he's got a girl he knocked up who won't let him see the kid unless he flies straight, which is why he's doing landscaping), I just think he doesn't want to be that visible, for some reason.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1722 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:31 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:And in other news... Wednesday, October 2nd Polls (Monmouth & Economist) and today's IBD/TIPP poll... guessing Ukraine is weighing on Biden and the heart attack is weighing on Sanders.

Code: Select all

               Monmouth   Economist    IBD/TIPP
Warren                 28        28          27
Biden                  25        22          26
Sanders                15        13          10
Buttigieg               5         7          7
Harris                  5         5          3
Yang                    2         3          3
O'Rourke                1         3          2
Booker                  1         2          0
Kobuchar                1         1          1
Castro                  1         1          1
Gabbard                 0         2          1
Bennet                  0         2          0
Styeyer                 1         1          0


It's likely entirely irrelevant but I'm fascinated by how Buttigieg has basically crushed Harris by simply being reasonable while she has been a bit all over the place rather than focusing on simply being the better Biden and so has dropped back towards Yang and Beto. Biden and Sanders still confuse me that they have so much support between them. Do the Democrats really care about electing the oldest president ever? Even Warren is on the older side of things but at least she's younger than those guys (and Trump) and seems to have more wits about her and a better ability to adapt at this point.


Biden has the AA vote sewn up. I'm totally ok with nominating whomever the AA contingent supports, they are the Dems' core. Up to Warren/Sanders to convince them to switch.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1723 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:39 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:i object to the rallying cry of "fixing the tax code"

The rich aren't so much abusing the tax code to get rich but rather they have so much money that the tax laws are insignificant.

There's no "fixing" the tax code that would magically result in a more egalitarian distribution of wealth. The government didn't pick winners and losers, capitalism by design allocates resources in a way where there are winners and losers by definition*. This is just what late stage capitalism looks like.

Are there opportunities for abuse within the tax system? Absolutely. However, getting rid of those abuses (sheltering money) isn't going to reverse the trend of growing wealth inequality.

Also, I agree that Warren doesn't have the answers but I question if anyone has the answers. I'm ambivalent to a wealth tax, but I think that as a nation, the U.S. needs to edge towards embracing certain socialism policies to counteract the effects of growing wealth inequality. I also caution against having too harsh a stance against Warren because she proposed a flawed policy (much like taking a harsh stance against AOC). Perfect is the enemy of good.

First - if Warren is the nominee - I will be out walking for her. And that looks like it will be the case with Biden tied up in the Ukraine and folks wondering if Bernie will even make it to the election.

Second, of course fixing the tax code would take care of much of the problem. Tax receipts would go up and our social programs would be sustainable - that should be the #1 A++ issue. If earned income was taxed the same as investment income you wouldn't see near the disparity. If you fixed the loopholes with non-profits they couldn't move their money there and still maintain control without paying taxes on that income. If you took off the cap on payroll taxes that would also insure a fair tax rate. We got in this mess in the first place because of the tax code.

Fixing the tax code and getting tax receipts back to where they belong reduces (after transfers) income disparities.

When you talk about reducing wealth inequality then you have to force people to save money and invest in real estate, etc. But none of the proposals are advocating that. They are advocating funding of new programs not using the receipts of the new taxes to reduce wealth disparity directly. Another way to say it... 0/1,000,000,000 is still 0 or 1,000,000,000/0 is still infinity regardless of the number.

And define socialist policy. We are a democracy (political system) with social programs funded by capitalism. The only thing out of whack here is that congress bailed a long-time ago on their duties to manage receipts, outlays and continual streamlining and optimization of our social programs.

But maybe that is the key. Warren has been in the senate long enough to know that change isn't coming quickly. So she is proposing a quick fix vs. doing it the right way.

My 1/2 cent


1) I agree with all your suggestions 100%. This is low hanging fruit.
2) Furthermore, we got in this mess because of a decades long stealth campaign to cut taxes to the rich, and raise taxes on everyone else, starting with Reagan. With the GOP tax giveaway last year the ultra wealthy are paying LOWER taxes than everyone else. So the problem we are in now is a direct effect of really, really evil tax code shenanigans by the GOP. It is a tax code issue that will be solved by fixing the tax code to force the uber wealthy to pay more, not because it's fair but because every billionaire is a democracy-destroying policy failure. If we can manage to hold the tax code stable over the next few decades, yes, the problem will eventually be fixed.

So. Yes, we could fix our worst-in-the-developed-world wealth disparity tomorrow with a one-time 75% wealth tax, but the tax code would still need to be changed or we'll just end up back where we started 20 years from now.

As far as building the wealth of poor people, we need to think about why we have an increasing number of people in the informal economy. I have a guy who comes and mows my lawn in Anacostia, insists on me paying in cash because he doesn't have a bank account. The second time he did it the guy next door mugged him and took the cash. Guy drives around a little mini-motorcycle, got in an accident, broke his leg and has no insurance, has spent the last six weeks paying another guy to mow the lawn for him. Why doesn't he make a little landscaping business, formalize the business, get a bank account so I can pay with checks or credit cards, so his cash doesn't get stolen? Hire his guys formally and pay social security? Because it's fricking complicated and expensive.

Interestingly, he has a cash app now that charges $3 PER TRANSACTION. That's how much he's willing to pay to avoid having a bank account. I don't think he's selling drugs (he's got a girl he knocked up who won't let him see the kid unless he flies straight, which is why he's doing landscaping), I just think he doesn't want to be that visible, for some reason.

I think we are in 100% agreement on fixing the tax code :o

I might disagree with the root cause. I think it was both the Rs (starting even before Reagan and back to Kennedy. I think it was both parties with their various tax carveouts. Either way - it is an unsustainable mess and the more complicated it is the more the wealthy benefit (better accounts and tax lawyers).

I think a one time (or more likely a series of smaller) wealth tax (after the tax code is fixed - otherwise they will be able to just duck the wealth tax) is a good idea. But I think the proceeds should go toward deficit reduction rather than new programs. I question a 75% wealth tax though - I think you are kidding there? We both know that much of the wealth is in paper form. That type of wealth tax would ensure that the wealthy couldn't pay the tax (as their assets would depreciate rather quickly as they needed to sell them). I would also worry about a financial panic in the stock market which could have a serious impact on receipts.

And although anecdotal, your example strikes a cord. Unless we fix that - there will never be a decrease in the wealth ratio of something to nothing.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1724 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:40 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
I_Like_Dirt wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:And in other news... Wednesday, October 2nd Polls (Monmouth & Economist) and today's IBD/TIPP poll... guessing Ukraine is weighing on Biden and the heart attack is weighing on Sanders.

Code: Select all

               Monmouth   Economist    IBD/TIPP
Warren                 28        28          27
Biden                  25        22          26
Sanders                15        13          10
Buttigieg               5         7          7
Harris                  5         5          3
Yang                    2         3          3
O'Rourke                1         3          2
Booker                  1         2          0
Kobuchar                1         1          1
Castro                  1         1          1
Gabbard                 0         2          1
Bennet                  0         2          0
Styeyer                 1         1          0


It's likely entirely irrelevant but I'm fascinated by how Buttigieg has basically crushed Harris by simply being reasonable while she has been a bit all over the place rather than focusing on simply being the better Biden and so has dropped back towards Yang and Beto. Biden and Sanders still confuse me that they have so much support between them. Do the Democrats really care about electing the oldest president ever? Even Warren is on the older side of things but at least she's younger than those guys (and Trump) and seems to have more wits about her and a better ability to adapt at this point.


Biden has the AA vote sewn up. I'm totally ok with nominating whomever the AA contingent supports, they are the Dems' core. Up to Warren/Sanders to convince them to switch.

Well, I am walking for whichever candidate ends up winning.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1725 » by I_Like_Dirt » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:53 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Biden has the AA vote sewn up. I'm totally ok with nominating whomever the AA contingent supports, they are the Dems' core. Up to Warren/Sanders to convince them to switch.


Don't get me wrong, I'm for whoever wins. Biden has the older AA vote sewn up and he has that vote regardless of what he says or does at this point. Bernie actually has taken over the younger AA voters. The AA community has some internal divides that aren't totally unlike any other demographic. At this point, it strikes me as likely that Bernie is more likely to bleed support, and he has been. Where that support goes is going to be interesting. The younger AA vote has a rather decided amount of power here, even if they may not recognize it. Moving from Bernie to Warren (ideologically similar) or Bernie to Biden (falling more in line with their parents) would swing things pretty dramatically.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1726 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 3:56 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1727 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 4:03 pm

Yep, the very first thing we should do is fix the tax code. It is interesting that we are running on wealth taxes, faux higher tax rates, etc.. But not one of our candidates has said - let's fix the tax code first.

BTW, this graph is a bit disingenuous in that it is taking into account local and state taxes which were designed to be anything but progressive. Especially when you look at revenue from traffic violations and the like - they are opposite from progressive.

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1728 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 4:13 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Yep, the very first thing we should do is fix the tax code. It is interesting that we are running on wealth taxes, faux higher tax rates, etc.. But not one of our candidates has said - let's fix the tax code first.

BTW, this graph is a bit disingenuous in that it is taking into account local and state taxes which were designed to be anything but progressive. Especially when you look at revenue from traffic violations and the like - they are opposite from progressive.

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Why is that misleading? The wealthy forcing the Fed to stiff the states, forcing the states to then predate on the poor, is very relevant imo
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1729 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 4:57 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Yep, the very first thing we should do is fix the tax code. It is interesting that we are running on wealth taxes, faux higher tax rates, etc.. But not one of our candidates has said - let's fix the tax code first.

BTW, this graph is a bit disingenuous in that it is taking into account local and state taxes which were designed to be anything but progressive. Especially when you look at revenue from traffic violations and the like - they are opposite from progressive.

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Why is that misleading? The wealthy forcing the Fed to stiff the states, forcing the states to then predate on the poor, is very relevant imo

Not my point. My point is that the federal tax code is at least progressive. State and local taxes are anything but... If you were to break it out by just federal taxes it wouldn't be so skewed - although still very skewed.

If you were to look at local and state taxes - we really have a problem there (with respect to where their receipts come from).

But alas, that is a non-sequitur since we were talking about the federal policy.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1730 » by doclinkin » Mon Oct 7, 2019 5:25 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
I_Like_Dirt wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:And in other news... Wednesday, October 2nd Polls (Monmouth & Economist) and today's IBD/TIPP poll... guessing Ukraine is weighing on Biden and the heart attack is weighing on Sanders.

Code: Select all

               Monmouth   Economist    IBD/TIPP
Warren                 28        28          27
Biden                  25        22          26
Sanders                15        13          10
Buttigieg               5         7          7
Harris                  5         5          3
Yang                    2         3          3
O'Rourke                1         3          2
Booker                  1         2          0
Kobuchar                1         1          1
Castro                  1         1          1
Gabbard                 0         2          1
Bennet                  0         2          0
Styeyer                 1         1          0


It's likely entirely irrelevant but I'm fascinated by how Buttigieg has basically crushed Harris by simply being reasonable while she has been a bit all over the place rather than focusing on simply being the better Biden and so has dropped back towards Yang and Beto. Biden and Sanders still confuse me that they have so much support between them. Do the Democrats really care about electing the oldest president ever? Even Warren is on the older side of things but at least she's younger than those guys (and Trump) and seems to have more wits about her and a better ability to adapt at this point.


Biden has the AA vote sewn up. I'm totally ok with nominating whomever the AA contingent supports, they are the Dems' core. Up to Warren/Sanders to convince them to switch.


Again I don't think Biden owns the African American vote if there is a viable alternative like Corey Booker as a running mate. people I know think of Biden as old. They are fond of him since Obama likes him, but he's yet another old white guy. By contrast Booker can speak to the core issues of that powerful surge of urban voting in the Obama electorate and has the charisma and youth to balance out a ticket if he is asked to run alongside someone like Warren for instance.

His policies and hers are not entirely disparate and I think with an older candidate people would see a youthful guy as a reasonable President-in-waiting, developing his statecraft chops and helping shape policy. In the case of Warren she has shown an adaptability and willingness to listen to other people's good ideas that I expect she would defer to Booker on some issues regarding urban infrastructure and social justice. See, for instance how she absorbed Jay Inslee's environmental platform. Her talk about providing for working moms goes a long way with people who are listening to actual policies.

I think Booker has pull in a way that Harris does not. I'd be curious to see how a Biden/Harris ticket fared in polls against Warren/Booker.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1731 » by pancakes3 » Mon Oct 7, 2019 5:26 pm

i don't think Obama's doing America any favors in staying out of the political fray. i get why he's doing it, but i disagree.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1732 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 5:28 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Yep, the very first thing we should do is fix the tax code. It is interesting that we are running on wealth taxes, faux higher tax rates, etc.. But not one of our candidates has said - let's fix the tax code first.

BTW, this graph is a bit disingenuous in that it is taking into account local and state taxes which were designed to be anything but progressive. Especially when you look at revenue from traffic violations and the like - they are opposite from progressive.


Why is that misleading? The wealthy forcing the Fed to stiff the states, forcing the states to then predate on the poor, is very relevant imo

Not my point. My point is that the federal tax code is at least progressive. State and local taxes are anything but... If you were to break it out by just federal taxes it wouldn't be so skewed - although still very skewed.

If you were to look at local and state taxes - we really have a problem there (with respect to where their receipts come from).

But alas, that is a non-sequitur since we were talking about the federal policy.


No, that's actually my point. It is well established in public economics that state tax policy responds strategically to federal tax policy. If the Fed transfers less money to states, because the rich are draining revenues out of it by refusing to pay taxes, then cash strapped states will turn to the tools they have available to replace it (e.g. traffic fines and civil forfeiture).

So one of the consequences of reducing the size of the government *only* by reducing taxes paid by the rich is that states have to increase their regressive tax burden.

[edited to fix a typo: "pubic economics" lol]
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1733 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Oct 7, 2019 6:18 pm

I actually kind of agree with Trump on the need to get out the business of imperialism and endless wars. I just think he needs to announce the policy first, negotiate with our friends on how it's going to work, and manage our relationships with our allies intelligently and respectfully, instead of just jerking our soldiers and resources out of there, leaving the Kurds vulnerable to genocide. That's not going to end the endless war. Doing it that way guarantees that we'll be back there later, with everything even worse.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1734 » by dobrojim » Mon Oct 7, 2019 7:14 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:I actually kind of agree with Trump on the need to get out the business of imperialism and endless wars. I just think he needs to announce the policy first, negotiate with our friends on how it's going to work, and manage our relationships with our allies intelligently and respectfully, instead of just jerking our soldiers and resources out of there, leaving the Kurds vulnerable to genocide. That's not going to end the endless war. Doing it that way guarantees that we'll be back there later, with everything even worse.


Well, yes, avoiding stupid wars and a neo-colonialist foreign policy would be great.
But I'm not ready to credit DJT for taking a principled stand. What he wants, as judged
by his actions rather than his words, is a worldwide kleptocracy like the mafia families
of NYC dividing up the take.

PS - I'd be totally down with a Warren-Booker ticket.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1735 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 10:16 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Why is that misleading? The wealthy forcing the Fed to stiff the states, forcing the states to then predate on the poor, is very relevant imo

Not my point. My point is that the federal tax code is at least progressive. State and local taxes are anything but... If you were to break it out by just federal taxes it wouldn't be so skewed - although still very skewed.

If you were to look at local and state taxes - we really have a problem there (with respect to where their receipts come from).

But alas, that is a non-sequitur since we were talking about the federal policy.


No, that's actually my point. It is well established in public economics that state tax policy responds strategically to federal tax policy. If the Fed transfers less money to states, because the rich are draining revenues out of it by refusing to pay taxes, then cash strapped states will turn to the tools they have available to replace it (e.g. traffic fines and civil forfeiture).

So one of the consequences of reducing the size of the government *only* by reducing taxes paid by the rich is that states have to increase their regressive tax burden.

[edited to fix a typo: "pubic economics" lol]

Hmmm, I don't think that is the case (see the figure below). I think it is something quite different. State and local outlays have increased rather quickly. Those have been driven by healthcare, unfunded liabilities that are catching up with them and the industrial prison complex (your favorite). You could add that there are unfunded mandates and that would be correct.

But to you point (I think) it would be more efficient for the federal government to have larger receipts and federal transfers to the states (block grants). But of course, every time block grants come up they are blocked (as the federal government wants more and more control - driving inefficiency and further driving unfunded mandates).

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1736 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 7, 2019 10:18 pm

dobrojim wrote:PS - I'd be totally down with a Warren-Booker ticket.

Yeah, I have come around to this pairing as well... I think they would be a pretty dynamic duo.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1737 » by Pointgod » Mon Oct 7, 2019 10:22 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
'Get a grip': Colin Powell scolds Republicans for enabling Trump

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Former Secretary of State Colin Powell unleashed on the Republican Party and White House officials for enabling President Trump and allowing United States foreign policy to devolve into "shambles." He then laid into Republicans currently serving in office for failing to speak out against the president's controversial actions.

Powell concluded, “The media has a role to play, we all have a role to play, you’ve got to remember that all these pieces are a part of our government. Executive branch, Congress, Supreme Court, and of the Fourth Estate, and we’ve got to remember that the Constitution started with, ‘We the People,’ not ‘Me the President.'”
Washington Examiner


I don’t know why people expect Republicans to act reasonable. They simply don’t give a **** about anything except their own selfish gratifications. If other Republicans want to hold Trump accountable they’d start fundraising and campaigning for Democrats.
Wizardspride
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1738 » by Wizardspride » Mon Oct 7, 2019 11:58 pm

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
Wizardspride
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1739 » by Wizardspride » Tue Oct 8, 2019 12:02 am

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
Wizardspride
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Posts: 17,437
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Joined: Nov 05, 2004
Location: Olney, MD/Kailua/Kaneohe, HI
       

Re: Political Roundtable Part XXVI 

Post#1740 » by Wizardspride » Tue Oct 8, 2019 1:01 am

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.

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