Bradley Beal - Part III

[Jamaaliver]

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“I just go hoop. Every day I see somebody and they ask ‘Beal, you leaving?’ and I’m like ‘I’m still living in D.C., I ain’t going nowhere.'”…

“It’s a great thing that a lot of people love your game and want you on their team, but I love the situation I have too.”

Beal doesn’t want to be traded because he would like a supermax contract extension — five years, $250 million — but only the Wizards can give him that money...The Wizards do not want to trade him because they are trying more of a re-tooling on the fly than a complete rebuild, and they want Beal at the heart of what they do.

If Beal seems to be in line for an All-NBA spot this season, the Wizards have a $250 million question to answer — do they want to pay him that much? Would that force them to open up the trade market for Beal (like Sacramento with DeMarcus Cousins, for example)? The Wizards already have John Wall on a supermax, having two contracts like that on the books will make it hard to put players around them and win

[Jamaaliver]

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[nate33]

As I said before, I suspect Beal will do the following:

1 - Refrain from extending now and try and make All-NBA this season. If he does, he'll sign the supermax, which is 35% of the cap.
2 - If he doesn't make All-NBA this year, he'll sign a 1+1 contract extension. That gets him under contract through 2023, with an opt out in 2022. 2022 will be after his 10th season, making him eligible for a 35% extension regardless of whether he makes All-NBA or not.
3 - Opt out of his 1+1 extension in 2022 (assuming no significant injuries) and sign somewhere (possibly here, possibly not) for a 35% contract.

I just don't see him waiting until the end of his current deal and signing elsewhere in 2021 on a 30% max contract for multiple years. Not when he is eligible for 35% if he waits one more season. He'd be leaving too much money on the table.

[Illmatic12]

Apparently Beal has a master plan to strongarm his way to the Heat to play with .. noted great teammates and champions, Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul

Shameless click baiting

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[closg00]

Another Heat article
https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article235465352.html

[payitforward]

if this that & the other thing, and then...

"Miami then could offer Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, the 2020 first-round pick and Tyler Herro for Beal. And if that’s not enough, Miami could ask OKC for a second first-round pick that would be eligible to be traded to Washington."

Justise Winslow is a colossally overpaid journeyman, Dion Waiters is absolutely awful (but expiring). I.e., this would amount to 2 R1 picks & Tyler Herro for Brad. Silly idea.

[Ruzious]

if this that & the other thing, and then...

"Miami then could offer Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, the 2020 first-round pick and Tyler Herro for Beal. And if that’s not enough, Miami could ask OKC for a second first-round pick that would be eligible to be traded to Washington."

Justise Winslow is a colossally overpaid journeyman, Dion Waiters is absolutely awful (but expiring). I.e., this would amount to 2 R1 picks & Tyler Herro for Brad. Silly idea.

I've had a lot of discussions about Winslow in the trade forums, because Heat fans are always looking to trade him while insisting he's good. Most people think he has a lot more value than you do - because he was learning to play PG last season and improved quite a lot. I like that he's developing a 3 point shot.

[Illmatic12]

if this that & the other thing, and then...

"Miami then could offer Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, the 2020 first-round pick and Tyler Herro for Beal. And if that’s not enough, Miami could ask OKC for a second first-round pick that would be eligible to be traded to Washington."

Justise Winslow is a colossally overpaid journeyman, Dion Waiters is absolutely awful (but expiring). I.e., this would amount to 2 R1 picks & Tyler Herro for Brad. Silly idea.

I've had a lot of discussions about Winslow in the trade forums, because Heat fans are always looking to trade him while insisting he's good. Most people think he has a lot more value than you do - because he was learning to play PG last season and improved quite a lot. I like that he's developing a 3 point shot.

He has a career TS% of 49% and is turning 24 this season. Seems like he needs to learn how to play offense in general.


IMO Troy Brown Jr will be better than Winslow fairly soon.

And Heat fans are looking to trade him because they know the point guard thing is a mirage , Miami had a bottom 5 offense so it cost them nothing to let Winslow run around pretending to be a floor general. With Jimmy there to take on the lead ballhandling role they have no need for Winslow to do that anymore.

[payitforward]

if this that & the other thing, and then...

"Miami then could offer Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, the 2020 first-round pick and Tyler Herro for Beal. And if that’s not enough, Miami could ask OKC for a second first-round pick that would be eligible to be traded to Washington."

Justise Winslow is a colossally overpaid journeyman, Dion Waiters is absolutely awful (but expiring). I.e., this would amount to 2 R1 picks & Tyler Herro for Brad. Silly idea.

I've had a lot of discussions about Winslow in the trade forums, because Heat fans are always looking to trade him while insisting he's good. Most people think he has a lot more value than you do - because he was learning to play PG last season and improved quite a lot. I like that he's developing a 3 point shot.

I don't think he "improved quite a lot" last year, Ruz. Yes, his assists went up -- he was playing PG! Overall, in fact, I'd say he was better the previous year. He scored slightly better this year -- but still below average all the same! -- but his rebounds fell a lot, his TOs went up... in all he wasn't & isn't good.

I thought he was going to be an excellent player out of college, btw. But... it hasn't happened. Anyway, even if I liked him a little more, there's no way that trade package works. Now, if Tyler Herro goes out & wins RoY, plays his ass off, etc... maybe I'm wrong. But, I'm not holding my breath for that.

[Ruzious]

I think Miami fans are overrating him - as I implied in my last post - but labelling him a journeyman at this point In his career is a mistake, imo - because he's started developing a reliable 3 and has shown the skills to be able to play a little point - at 6'7ish and 225 - and he's a quality defender able to defend all types of players. I expect he'll continue to improve. I don't expect Troy Brown, Jr to be better than him. Winslow is a LOT stronger and probably a bit more athletic. Not sure there's any skill that Brown has the advantage in. Granted, Winslow is older, but the question on him was his shooting range, and he's greatly improved it. We have no idea if Brown will do the same. Btw, last season was Winslow's age 22 season - which was pretty close to Jimmy Butler's age 24 season.

[payitforward]

On the overall numbers, Troy Brown was already a little better than Winslow -- last year as a rookie. Of course, that's in 700+ minutes, & they played in such different ways that the comparison probably doesn't mean much.

Winslow's defensive skills & commitment should be figured in, you are right -- I just don't know quite how to do it in a meaningful (i.e. quantitative) way. But, then, so should Troy's.

What's really interesting is to compare the two guys' rookie seasons, which are scarily similar!

It's true that Winslow's 3-point % remained a bit above average last year -- @ the same as the previous year, but on a much increased number of attempts -- which is a good thing. But, just as that's a good thing, so too must we look at his his 2pt. %, which was below average, & his FT% wvh was WAY below average, & at his eFG% which is below average. Overall, Winslow's TS% rose by exactly 1.3% last year. Since it's still well below average, I don't know why that little bump should be thought of as a big deal.

I don't have anything against Justise Winslow. There actually aren't a lot of guys in the world who are good enough at basketball to become NBA journeymen. It's not an insult. It's also true that he's only 23 1/2 years old. He may well improve over the next couple of years, & I hope he does -- I like to see all these kids succeed!

But, he'll have to improve a whole lot to climb out of the journeyman category. & I don't think you're doing him any favors to compare him to Jimmy Butler.

Main point: he's no way worth $13m, & that Miami article about a trade for Beal wasn't in the right ballpark.

[Ruzious]

On the overall numbers, Troy Brown was already a little better than Winslow -- last year as a rookie. Of course, that's in 700+ minutes, & they played in such different ways that the comparison probably doesn't mean much.

Winslow's defensive skills & commitment should be figured in, you are right -- I just don't know quite how to do it in a meaningful (i.e. quantitative) way. But, then, so should Troy's.

What's really interesting is to compare the two guys' rookie seasons, which are scarily similar!

It's true that Winslow's 3-point % remained a bit above average last year -- @ the same as the previous year, but on a much increased number of attempts -- which is a good thing. But, just as that's a good thing, so too must we look at his his 2pt. %, which was below average, & his FT% wvh was WAY below average, & at his eFG% which is below average. Overall, Winslow's TS% rose by exactly 1.3% last year. Since it's still well below average, I don't know why that little bump should be thought of as a big deal.

I don't have anything against Justise Winslow. There actually aren't a lot of guys in the world who are good enough at basketball to become NBA journeymen. It's not an insult. It's also true that he's only 23 1/2 years old. He may well improve over the next couple of years, & I hope he does -- I like to see all these kids succeed!

But, he'll have to improve a whole lot to climb out of the journeyman category. & I don't think you're doing him any favors to compare him to Jimmy Butler.

Main point: he's no way worth $13m, & that Miami article about a trade for Beal wasn't in the right ballpark.

Nowhere did I say he was in Jimmy Butler's class. I compare his 22 year old stats to Butler's 24 year old stats. Do you understand why I'm irritated by your last comment? If you don't, we're not going to have any more 2-way discussions. Not to mention - I never said any trade idea involving Winslow and Beal made sense. You've responded with that same comment twice, and I never even suggested it made sense.

[Illmatic12]

I think Miami fans are overrating him - as I implied in my last post - but labelling him a journeyman at this point In his career is a mistake, imo - because he's started developing a reliable 3 and has shown the skills to be able to play a little point - at 6'7ish and 225 - and he's a quality defender able to defend all types of players. I expect he'll continue to improve. I don't expect Troy Brown, Jr to be better than him. Winslow is a LOT stronger and probably a bit more athletic. Not sure there's any skill that Brown has the advantage in. Granted, Winslow is older, but the question on him was his shooting range, and he's greatly improved it. We have no idea if Brown will do the same. Btw, last season was Winslow's age 22 season - which was pretty close to Jimmy Butler's age 24 season.

Totally get why Heat fans WANT to be high on Winslow - high character kid, comes from strong basketball pedigree, gives 110% effort on the floor. He is a throwback to the type of player who would've been highly coveted 20yrs ago. Unfortunately the way the game is played now isn't kind to those "hustle guys" who don't have defined offensive skillsets. In the modern NBA , Justise is a hard sell - he simply has too many red flags on that side of the ball.

I heard this from Brad Stevens and like to think about players in this way: instead of classic positions think about ballhandlers , wings, and bigs. Players who cannot cleanly fit at least one of those archetypes tend to have a ceiling on how useful they can be on a winning team.

Ballhandler - Winslow was the Heat's next best option after injury to Dragic, but remains a woefully inefficient ballhandler relative to the entire league (14th percentile in PnR , for the #26 ranked offense). He lacks a strong handle (particularly when defenses take away his left hand), certainly isn't an efficient shotcreator from the perimeter, and despite appearing strong + athletic is a weirdly terrible finisher for his career... one explanation he's offered are his unfortunately small hands? By his own admission he cannot palm a basketball which is odd for a 6'7 dude. He barely draws FTs (this is why the Jimmy Butler comp is DOA, even young Jimmy was a very physical wing with high FTr and at-rim finishing %), has consistently struggled from the FT line since Duke which doesn't bode well for developing touch in the future. So there's really no reason to utilize Winslow as a halfcourt ballhandler unless your team is completely devoid of offensive talent.

Wing - Winslow started out as a horribly inefficient wing player who was headed the way of Stanley Johnson, but saved his career by developing a catch-and-shoot 3pter. This makes him "passable" in the off-ball wing role next to an efficient lead ballhandler, but he's still not some great complementary wing because defenses will still prefer to double Butler and let Winslow shoot. He'll have to record several seasons of high volume 3pt% before defenses actually bend towards him.

Big - Winslow struggled starting at PF last season so he isn't ideal as a theoretical small ball big man, either. His wingspan is fairly ordinary at 6'10 which isn't great for guarding bigs. He's a solid rebounder, nothing amazing. And again he has major finishing issues which make it hard to utilize him as a sort of roll man or lob threat.


All in all, Winslow is certainly good enough as a 3&D guy to carve out an NBA career. But due to his flaws will never be a priority or longterm starting answer for any team's lineup, and thus will have to seek out specific types of teams to gain opportunities.. ie a probable journeyman.

[Illmatic12]

As far as the Troy Brown Jr comp.. I'll grant that Winslow has a higher defensive ceiling than TB Jr.
But when it comes to offense and overall impact in general, I believe Brown has a much higher ceiling than Winslow because he's much closer to fitting those aforementioned archetypes. Again this is just my opinion and yes admittedly some of it is conjecture/projection..

Ballhandler - Brown was an elite true point guard prospect his entire life and only was classified as a wing after having a late growth spurt. It's not just something he's trying to learn now that he's already in the league. Despite having an average first step his feel, ballhandling, and technique in the PnR as a 19-20yo is far beyond Winslow's. No he isn't as strong or athletic slashing to the rim, but he can slither into the paint and convert floaters which can be an effective weapon. Also more importantly.. I *think* he has the potential to be an efficient pull-up jumpshooter. Ben Rubin of The Stepien proposed the draft philosophy that midrange off-dribble shooting is critical to projecting any prospect as an offensive initiator (think of the players who you'd trust to close out a game in the 4q), bc PnR ballhandler must be able to take those shots to keep the D honest. It comes naturally to small guards like Beal, Lillard Irving etc, but a lot of bigger 6'6+ players .. ala Winslow, Ben Simmons, Giannis etc struggle with the mechanical footwork , balance or touch to shoot those quick trigger pull-up Js. Some like Otto Porter Jr have the touch but simply can't create separation with their handle. Then you have a player like Rui Hachimura , who's an excellent in-between shooter but lacks that next-level feel/IQ to manipulate defenses, at least to this point.

Brown doesn't have the consistency nor sample size yet, but at 6'7 his ability to manipulate ballscreens and fluidly dribble into his jumpshot are VERY positive indicators for potential as a PnR initiator. His balance on some of these shots is Bradley Beal-esque

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Wing - as a rookie TB Jr was competent at all aspects of playing off the ball (movement, cutting, crashing for OREBS, filling lanes in transition).. except for catch-and-shoot threes. And based on how his shot looked towards the end of last season, he may not be that far away (33% 3pt in his final 10 games as a starter).. IF his spot-up 3pt shot comes along he'll be an excellent off-ball wing.

Big - he's a very good rebounder, has an interesting frame that could maybe be bulked into an occasional small ball 4. But his body is still growing so that's several years away if ever.

So all in all, with what Brown has shown at his age I *could* anticipate him becoming a versatile two-way starter on a contender, able to seamlessly slide between two modern positions (ballhandler + wing). Now , he's very young and it's still very early. But imo he's on that trajectory, and that archetype of player is simply much more valuable than someone like Winslow who is stuck between roles.


Anyways, none of this is really relevant to the Bradley Beal thread! lol. But the discussion sparked interest nonetheless and I wanted to flesh out some concepts I'd been thinking about.

[payitforward]

On the overall numbers, Troy Brown was already a little better than Winslow -- last year as a rookie. Of course, that's in 700+ minutes, & they played in such different ways that the comparison probably doesn't mean much.

Winslow's defensive skills & commitment should be figured in, you are right -- I just don't know quite how to do it in a meaningful (i.e. quantitative) way. But, then, so should Troy's.

What's really interesting is to compare the two guys' rookie seasons, which are scarily similar!

It's true that Winslow's 3-point % remained a bit above average last year -- @ the same as the previous year, but on a much increased number of attempts -- which is a good thing. But, just as that's a good thing, so too must we look at his his 2pt. %, which was below average, & his FT% wvh was WAY below average, & at his eFG% which is below average. Overall, Winslow's TS% rose by exactly 1.3% last year. Since it's still well below average, I don't know why that little bump should be thought of as a big deal.

I don't have anything against Justise Winslow. There actually aren't a lot of guys in the world who are good enough at basketball to become NBA journeymen. It's not an insult. It's also true that he's only 23 1/2 years old. He may well improve over the next couple of years, & I hope he does -- I like to see all these kids succeed!

But, he'll have to improve a whole lot to climb out of the journeyman category. & I don't think you're doing him any favors to compare him to Jimmy Butler.

Main point: he's no way worth $13m, & that Miami article about a trade for Beal wasn't in the right ballpark.

Nowhere did I say he was in Jimmy Butler's class. I compare his 22 year old stats to Butler's 24 year old stats. Do you understand why I'm irritated by your last comment? If you don't, we're not going to have any more 2-way discussions. Not to mention - I never said any trade idea involving Winslow and Beal made sense. You've responded with that same comment twice, and I never even suggested it made sense.

I didn't think -- would never think! -- that you were putting Winslow in Butler's class, Ruz. You or anyone else, really! Sorry if my words gave that impression.

& I only mentioned the proposed trade, b/c it was what got us talking about Winslow. It was in an article written by a Miami journalist. Fantasy reading for Heat fans & no more. Wasn't thinking about you at all in dismissing it.

[payitforward]

As far as the Troy Brown Jr comp.. I'll grant that Winslow has a higher defensive ceiling than TB Jr.
But when it comes to offense and overall impact in general, I believe Brown has a much higher ceiling than Winslow because he's much closer to fitting those aforementioned archetypes. Again this is just my opinion and yes admittedly some of it is conjecture/projection..

Ballhandler - Brown [url=

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]was an elite true point guard prospect his entire life[/url] and only was classified as a wing after having a late growth spurt. It's not just something he's trying to learn now that he's already in the league. Despite having an average first step his feel, ballhandling, and technique in the PnR as a 19-20yo is far beyond Winslow's. No he isn't as strong or athletic slashing to the rim, but he can slither into the paint and convert floaters which can be an effective weapon. Also more importantly.. I *think* he has the potential to be an efficient pull-up jumpshooter. Ben Rubin of The Stepien proposed the draft philosophy that midrange off-dribble shooting is critical to projecting any prospect as an offensive initiator (think of the players who you'd trust to close out a game in the 4q), bc PnR ballhandler must be able to take those shots to keep the D honest. It comes naturally to small guards like Beal, Lillard Irving etc, but a lot of bigger 6'6+ players .. ala Winslow, Ben Simmons, Giannis etc struggle with the mechanical footwork , balance or touch to shoot those quick trigger pull-up Js. Some like Otto Porter Jr have the touch but simply can't create separation with their handle. Then you have a player like Rui Hachimura , who's an excellent in-between shooter but lacks that next-level feel/IQ to manipulate defenses, at least to this point.

Brown doesn't have the consistency nor sample size yet, but at 6'7 his ability to manipulate ballscreens and fluidly dribble into his jumpshot are VERY positive indicators for potential as a PnR initiator. His balance on some of these shots is Bradley Beal-esque

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Wing - as a rookie TB Jr was competent at all aspects of playing off the ball (movement, cutting, crashing for OREBS, filling lanes in transition).. except for catch-and-shoot threes. And based on how his shot looked towards the end of last season, he may not be that far away (33% 3pt in his final 10 games as a starter).. IF his spot-up 3pt shot comes along he'll be an excellent off-ball wing.

Big - he's a very good rebounder, has an interesting frame that could maybe be bulked into an occasional small ball 4. But his body is still growing so that's several years away if ever.

So all in all, with what Brown has shown at his age I *could* anticipate him becoming a versatile two-way starter on a contender, able to seamlessly slide between two modern positions (ballhandler + wing). Now , he's very young and it's still very early. But imo he's on that trajectory, and that archetype of player is simply much more valuable than someone like Winslow who is stuck between roles.

Anyways, none of this is really relevant to the Bradley Beal thread! lol. But the discussion sparked interest nonetheless and I wanted to flesh out some concepts I'd been thinking about.

Great post, illmatic! Copy it over to Troy's thread, please! There'll likely be good reason to refer back to it over time.

[Wizardspride]

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[DCZards]

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Thanks for posting! BB clearly put a lot of thought into this writing assignment. I love the way he broke down each of the Mystic's top players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The WNBA players need to be paid but how much more? What revenue do the really generate?

I recall about 20 years ago, there was a rival professional women's league. I believe it was called the ABL. Women WERE paid more in that league. The NBA in its support of the WNBA put the other league out of business.

[nate33]

God bless Bradley Beal, but as he said himself, he's no economics professor.

The WNBA loses money every year. Virtually nobody is willing to pay to watch them play. They may be the best women ballers in the world, but there are hundreds of thousands of male basketball players who are better and everyone knows it.

Why should they be paid anything like NBA players? If the NBA wants to continue to devote resources to subsidize the WNBA game, that's up to them. Just understand that it's a pure subsidy. The NBA players would be taking the money they truly earn by putting butts in seats and handing it over to the WBNA players who are not putting butts in seats. If they want to do that, that's fine by me. Just understand that the money has to come from somewhere, and it's not coming from fans.

There are only two reasons people watch women's sports. Either it's because it's a rare international competition and we are rooting for our country, or it's a sport like tennis where slower and weaker players actually make things more interesting (less aces and more volleys). Otherwise, people are going to massively favor the men's version of any sport because it's actually the best playing the best.