The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[Schad]

We should be safe to start adding now, just a bit incrementally. I'm not too worried about Rogers spending in the future...for all their (many, many) faults, not only did they authorize a $160m+ payroll, they authorized it long past the point where it made rational baseball sense, because a good team with a $160m payroll is really profitable.

And that for me is the bigger concern: that the desire to get back to profitability will lead to a GM receiving a Dombrowskian mandate, whether it's Dombrowski or someone else. We have the resources to aim for a much longer period of competitiveness, but only if we don't go nuts trying to make that period of competitiveness start tomorrow.

[ratul]

Read on Twitter

Wow, this would be AMAZING.

GTFO Shapiro - I'll help you pack. And give you fare money for the Union Express.

[Al_Oliver]

Where's that AA thread? I want to see how he won that series vs. the Cardinals... what, they lost 13-1 and were eliminated? How is that possible?

[Skin Blues]

It wasn't that Preller spent money on free agents that flopped (although James Shields definitely flopped), it was that he traded away so many good young prospects to land aging, declining veterans. Grandal for Kemp. Max Fried and Mallex Smith for Justin Upton. Trea Turner for Wil Myers.

As long as we're just spending on free agents, or making trades for guys who don't require prospects in return, I'm fine with it. There are good and bad ways to do it, but I'd love to see that they're willing to give it a shot.

Rogers would be better to save those dollars for the youngins. Rogers is no longer a bottomless pit of resources, and they should be looking to lock up Vlad and Bo as soon as possible for whatever discount they might be able to get - Acuna style. Even then, those numbers will be goofy. Add your veteran FA's after you have the cost certainty of your young core. Leafs made a similar mistake by not extending Matthews before they got Tavares (not to mention doing Willy first, who was probably the least important). Jays can still effective cap themselves out on Vlad, etc., if they spend too much too fast elsewhere.

The youngins won't be getting paid serious money for another 4 or 5 years. I hope we don't keep a barebones budget all the way up til Vladdy and Bo are in their last couple of arb seasons. As for waiting until we have cost certainty for our young core: we already do. Their salaries for the next 6 years are as certain as they'll ever be. Signing them to long-term extensions would be fantastic, but we can't just avoid signing any free agents for 4+ years.

[Al_Oliver]

It wasn't that Preller spent money on free agents that flopped (although James Shields definitely flopped), it was that he traded away so many good young prospects to land aging, declining veterans. Grandal for Kemp. Max Fried and Mallex Smith for Justin Upton. Trea Turner for Wil Myers.

As long as we're just spending on free agents, or making trades for guys who don't require prospects in return, I'm fine with it. There are good and bad ways to do it, but I'd love to see that they're willing to give it a shot.

Rogers would be better to save those dollars for the youngins. Rogers is no longer a bottomless pit of resources, and they should be looking to lock up Vlad and Bo as soon as possible for whatever discount they might be able to get - Acuna style. Even then, those numbers will be goofy. Add your veteran FA's after you have the cost certainty of your young core. Leafs made a similar mistake by not extending Matthews before they got Tavares (not to mention doing Willy first, who was probably the least important). Jays can still effective cap themselves out on Vlad, etc., if they spend too much too fast elsewhere.

The youngins won't be getting paid serious money for another 4 or 5 years. I hope we don't keep a barebones budget all the way up til Vladdy and Bo are in their last couple of arb seasons. As for waiting until we have cost certainty for our young core: we already do. Their salaries for the next 6 years are as certain as they'll ever be. Signing them to long-term extensions would be fantastic, but we can't just avoid signing any free agents for 4+ years.

I only a expect a few free agent signings, but multiple trades... the 40 man roster of mediocrity needs to be sorted so not all of their crap needs to be protected

[I_Like_Dirt]

I only a expect a few free agent signings, but multiple trades... the 40 man roster of mediocrity needs to be sorted so not all of their crap needs to be protected

The Jays got a lot of these guys because other teams had them and couldn't keep them on their 40-man rosters, either. I don't believe there's a major market for anyone the Jays would be willing to trade. There might be a trade or two, but if there is, it's probably going to be trading established players for more prospects - Giles is the most likely guy out the door.

I do think there will be a few free agent signings. I think they're going to be a bit more targeted and either short term or lower dollar amounts. It doesn't make sense to make major plays just yet.

What the Jays need to do isn't gut the roster, but raise the level of the roster of the roster across the board. Getting a bit more collectively from Vlad, Bo, Lourdes and Cavan next season would be solid. Doesn't mean they all need to improve or all need major breakouts, just that collectively they need to be a bit better. Then you can see already the advantages of having the starting rotation improve gradually. The Jays did that this season where they were playing guys like Edwin Jackson, Sanchez and Richard. Getting rid of those guys, even for the instability of a collection of younger players who weren't amazing themselves, made the team noticeably more competitive. If those younger players and maybe a free agent addition or two can improve the rotation a bit more this season (dumping Buckholz would be another plus), then things that raises another stretch. Getting improvements out of guys like Tellez, Drury, etc., or (likely) failing that, finding other players who are just a bit better also helps.

It won't turn the Jays into a playoff team next season but they could jump from 67 to 75 wins or so and continue getting more competitive like that over time until the time comes that they might actually be a playoff team.

[wamco]

Too many holes and budget available to not be aggressive this offseason. Atkins contract runs out after next year so u better believe he wants a winning season.
Especially with pitching staff. You don’t need a crystal ball to see that next year we’ll still need 3 more stud arms to go with Pearson and one of the back end starters we have.

[dagger]

Too many holes and budget available to not be aggressive this offseason. Atkins contract runs out after next year so u better believe he wants a winning season.
Especially with pitching staff. You don’t need a crystal ball to see that next year we’ll still need 3 more stud arms to go with Pearson and one of the back end starters we have.

They're not signing three stud arms in an off-season. Not next off-season. One or two good rotation vets, maybe. What unfortunately works against the Jays and will until they build some success organically is that a lot of top free agents want to go to a team that is already a winner, and will give at least a modest discount to make that happen. The Jays also have that obstacle of being in the AL East, so a return to contender status next season at least would be a really tough sell to a really good FA.

[Tanner]

I see no reason why we can't go after Gerrit Cole. He may not want to come to Toronto, but the Jays should still be aggressive in going after him. Don't have to go full Dombrowski, but going partial Dombrowski would help the team a lot.

[dagger]

I see no reason why we can't go after Gerrit Cole. He may not want to come to Toronto, but the Jays should still be aggressive in going after him. Don't have to go full Dombrowski, but going partial Dombrowski would help the team a lot.

I'm not opposed, but I would be wary of the overpayment required - between the different tax rates Texas to Ontario, and the fact he gets to pitch now for one of the two or three best teams in baseball with a stellar future ahead of it, with a good defence behind him, makes the odds of the Jays signing him remote to begin with. And it would only succeed with an overpayment that is stupidly out of proportion to his worth and harmful to the team's ability to sign other FAs or extend our own players. Nor do I particular like being held hostage to agents using Toronto as leverage to get him and other top FAs the money they want from the teams they really prioritize. We went down that road with the previous regime. We were part of every decent rumour, when in truth the Jays were rarely if ever a serious bidder.

So if by some miracle Cole would be amenable to something like a market rate contract, I'd consider it, but the odds of that are astronomical.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Nor do I particular like being held hostage to agents using Toronto as leverage to get him and other top FAs the money they want from the teams they really prioritize. We went down that road with the previous regime. We were part of every decent rumour, when in truth the Jays were rarely if ever a serious bidder.

So if by some miracle Cole would be amenable to something like a market rate contract, I'd consider it, but the odds of that are astronomical.

I don't actually mind it if other teams are paying their free agents more because of the Jays. What annoys me is people who interpret that as though the Jays were actually close to signing those guys. Build a good team first and then guys will sign. No team is just going out there and buying a winning team. There are lots of teams buying extremely expensive losing decades, though.

[Schad]

We'd probably need to outbid teams by a fair margin, and Cole's already likely to get something in the range of the Price deal. So, I dunno, $280m over 8 with an opt-out after year three or something?

[I_Like_Dirt]

We'd probably need to outbid teams by a fair margin, and Cole's already likely to get something in the range of the Price deal. So, I dunno, $280m over 8 with an opt-out after year three or something?

And that's without even losing the team's 2nd highest pick in the following draft and $500,000 (?) in international bonus pool money. For the Jays as they currently stand, that's still a significant cost.

[Schad]

Yeah, as good as Cole is, 20%+ of our future competitive payroll, plus opt-out risk (as they seem to be all the rage in long-term deals, I'm assuming he'd want one), plus those assets is a lot invested in the future of one arm.

[Skin Blues]

My heart says "Gimme That Cole!" but my brain says "What happens when he can't throw 100 anymore?"

Gotta admit, I wouldn't be that upset if we get him, though.

[Schad]

I'd kinda like us to sit on our available money and wait out his market/the markets of other medium and high-end free agents. Be the dark horse ready if someone doesn't pay full freight.

[phillipmike]

Read on Twitter

[dagger]

Here is an interesting story form the Globe on Rogers Media that includes some nuggets on the sports teams. Worst news? Cutting salary at the Jays was part of the reason for significant improvement in Rogers' earnings.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-hockey-baseball-and-buzzwords-can-rogers-medias-new-boss-solve-some/

The media group’s top line sales are expected to grow at a 2-per-cent to 3-per-cent annual clip, according to Mr. Staffieri, an improvement over revenues that were flat over the past 12 months. At the same time, Rogers is taking the axe to costs, including saying goodbye to high-priced athletes and TV and radio hosts. That is expected to boost profit margins.

The Blue Jays, for example, lost 95 games this year and finished near the bottom of the league. The Jays traded several of their top-paid players, including fielder Kevin Pillar, who made US$5.8-million, and pitcher Marcus Stroman, who earned US$7.4-million.

Financially, the season was a success. Rogers Media’s all-important earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose by $12-million to $72-million in the most recent quarter. The group’s EBITDA margin increased to 12.2 per cent from 9.9 per cent, a jump that analyst Drew McReynolds at RBC Dominion Securities Inc. said was “primarily due to lower Blue Jays salaries.”

Mr. Banks says he believes Rogers Media is protected in these down periods by a fan base that is loyal.

“What I love about this business is, you have this core group ... that good times and bad, will listen to the FAN, will watch Leafs games, will go watch the Blue Jays,” he says.

[BigLeagueChew]

Read on Twitter

[Black Watch]

Read on Twitter

Oh, thank goodness!

*wipes forehead*