Wizards win totals and other predictions. Degenerate gambler thread.

[doclinkin]

To start I'll take the over on Vegas: 26.5 wins. There's a drop off from last year in losing Sato and Otto and even a wounded Wall. We replaced a capable Ariza and passable Jeff Green with untested youth.

We are one-deep at best on our starting 5 players, even minus one at key positions. Lack of quality starters leaves you vulnerable to injury if any go down for any real time.

We are young and learning. We have tank incentive in our development-over-wins mandate. And I don't see where we pick up any upgrade in defense or rebounding from the players we acquired. Unless Jemerrio Jones makes the team as a defensive super-sub.

But Beal has determination to reach a supermax threshold, he will be focussed. Wall may return late. Bryant is developing nicely. Dean Oliver makes smart adjustments. Hachimura seems a legit starting caliber talent. And we are scrappy. Attitude goes a long way. We are deep in youth and energy, so we can afford to play whomever is working hardest. Teams will overlook this team as an easy out but be surprised that the young cats keep testing them all night.

And there will be a mid-season trade.

I'll go +2 on Vegas. Call it 28.5 Gut says 28. I'd be happy with anything above that. So I'll set my sights low and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Still. The running and gunning style will make this the most exciting sub- 30-win squad we have seen in a long time. Watching young cats sort it all out. A late run may jeopardize our tank position before front office mandate rests various players with minor injuries and load management. And even then the Baby Wizlets and Beal fighting for all_NBA status will likely pull off a nailbiter win or two against teams that have given up or secured playoff position.

[gtn130]

Figured I would add my degenerate gambling question here. In fantasy football, I was offered Joe Mixon for Matt Breida. Not sure what if I should accept or not.

I'd take Breida.

Cinci oline is really bad, and the new staff has no real attachment to Mixon since they didn't draft him. Gio Bernard has creeped back into the offense getting 40% of snaps. Gio picked up 53% of snaps last week, and that will continue since Cinci is always trailing and Gio is the pass-catching back now. Last year Mixon was consistently getting 70+% of snaps, and this year he's averaging in the 50% range.

Breida is also in a timeshare, but the offense is much better and there's no risk of the team tanking. Breida gets about 40% of snaps but he'll be a lot more efficient, and it's pretty likely Mixon will fall into that level of usage anyway.

[gtn130]

I'm taking the under on the Wizards' win total this year - they have zero good defenders on the roster and zero depth. I'll say 25 wins.