Predict the Regular Season Rotation

[nate33]

After watching a handful of preseason games, I think we've got a decent idea of Brooks' strategy and what players fit in where. The two big unknowns are Troy Brown's role and the status of Isaiah Thomas.

Overall, it looks like Brooks is all in on Hollinger's analytics. The team is launching 3's at an absolutely insane rate. I can't find team stats for preseason, but adding up the individual stats, it looks like they're launching 48.5 threes per game so far. For comparison, the 2nd highest 3PA rate in the league last year was Milwaukee at 38.2. (Houston launched 45.4.) Obviously, it's preseason and it's easier to play at a fast pace because things are ragged, but clearly the goal is to play fast and launch 3's.

Regarding the individual players, we've learned a few things so far:

* Bryant, Beal and Ish are about what we expected.
* Hachimura is NBA ready at both ends of the floor. He's going to make rookie mistakes, but he is by no means out of his depth. He handled Julius Randle defensively in the first Knicks game with no problems.
* Bedrans is ridiculous. The guy is averaging 14.2 3PA's per 36 minutes and I've never seen a greener light. That dude will launch a 3 at any time under any circumstances. And he's hitting them too. So far, he is shooting a staggering 50%.
* Wagner is a surprisingly effective scorer - at least against second stringers. He is averaging 28 points per 36 with a TS% of 72%, without relying on unsustainable 3-point shooting. He leads the team in FTA's per minute. His rebounding and defense suck though. And we're still in small sample size theater.
* Justin Anderson seems like a legit 3&D NBA player.
* McRae looks like a decent enough second-unit wing scorer.
* Schofield and Bonga are not NBA ready.
* We don't know much about Jones because he doesn't get minutes
* Justin Robinson isn't awful, but he's not that good either.

I think Brooks will try and field a fairly conventional starting lineup, scraping together as many 2-way players as we have on the roster. With Brown hurt, it looks like this:

PG Ish
SG Beal
SF Anderson (later Brown)
PF Hachimura
C Bryant

That team will defend adequately at an NBA level except when Ish can't handle a bigger matchup. Offensively, they can run pick-and-rolls all day with Ish or Beal as the ball handler, and Bryant or Hachimura as the big. Anderson is an adequate floor spacer who can defend the opposition's best wing. Bedrans can come off the bench early for either Rui or Anderson and stretch the floor some more.

The second unit is where it gets interesting. I think they're just going to play really fast and launch an insane number of 3's and just hope to outscore the opposition. It'll look something like this:

PG Robinson (later Isaiah)
SG McRae
SF Jones (later Anderson)
PF Bedrans
C Wagner

They definitely won't defend.

[payitforward]

I'm glad to see Justin Anderson play well, & I hope he lands in the league this year -- with us or somewhere. His problem over 4 seasons has been an inability to shoot the 3 -- career average = 30%. But, he's been hitting them for us, which is great.

It's still something of a question exactly how we manage to keep him, however. If we get the player exception, then I presume it'll be him & McRae (plus the 13 guaranteed contracts & Justin Robinson). If not, it gets dicey.

[MarcoPolo]

and they released him

I thought he would be a big rotation piece.

It all seems like a big lottery team right now, that should be a goal.

Read on Twitter

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

That sucks. Jones and Anderson were two of my favorite members of the bench mob. I guess the Wiz brass doesn’t care about stopping the other team or rebounding the ball.

[nate33]

That sucks. Jones and Anderson were two of my favorite members of the bench mob. I guess the Wiz brass doesn’t care about stopping the other team or rebounding the ball.

Letting Jones walk doesn't surprise me or alarm me much. He clearly never got traction in preseason. And at just 6-5, his utility on defense would have been somewhat limited. Even if we kept him, he was going to play 400 minutes or so of exclusively garbage time minutes.

I'm really disappointed that they let Anderson go though. Anderson is bigger and can match up with guys like Kawhi, George and Lebron a bit better. He seemed like a guy who could be legitimately part of our 10 man rotation, particularly if CJ Miles proves to be washed up or injury prone.

I just can't justify dumping both of those defensive-minded wings while keeping both of our diminutive 3rd string PG's (Robinson and Chiozza). It makes no sense. Heck, with Beal, Brown and Bonga all being capable of playing some PG, you can make a case that we'd be better of dumping both Robinson and Chiozza in order to keep both of Anderson and Jones.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I just can't justify dumping both of those defensive-minded wings while keeping both of our diminutive 3rd string PG's (Robinson and Chiozza). It makes no sense. Heck, with Beal, Brown and Bonga all being capable of playing some PG, you can make a case that we'd be better of dumping both Robinson and Chiozza in order to keep both of Anderson and Jones.

Beal at PG doesn't make a lot of sense, really. Moving your star out of position to accommodate certain scrubs just isn't a great way to operate. If Anderson and/or Jones develop into legitimate rotation players, it makes sense but right now it doesn't appear like that's going to be the case. Jones can't score from anywhere outside of 3 feet and he isn't very big which makes scoring inside hard for him, too. He hustles and does a lot of stuff well and generally works hard but his game is extremely limited unless he figures some of that stuff out. And as a rebounder, he's admitted he doesn't box out and just goes for the rebound. That's great for his rebounding numbers but not necessarily what the Wizards are going to want.

As for Anderson, the Wizards are the 4th (?) team to try him out and pass on him. It might be more but I can't remember them all. People assume he's a good defender based on reputation and the fact that he's a poor offensive player but he's also got defensive issues that don't seem to go away. He might catch on somewhere eventually and I hope he does. Is he even as good as Stanley Johnson, though? I'm not so sure that's true and that's a rather low bar.

I'm not a big believer in either Chiozza or Robinson but I can see keeping both for now. It's not just about 3rd PG. Thomas hasn't played 40+ games in a couple seasons now, isn't getting any younger and is already hurt. Smith has a better track record of staying healthy but is 31 now and has never played 30 mpg or more in his career. Even if Smith is healthy, they're probably going to need ~20 mpg at PG and if he gets hurt, one those guys might wind up starting. I don't think Brown is a PG, though he's got a bit of point in him. I do think Bonga might and I think the Wizards are going to try him there, too. Beal is going to play a lot of SG. Brown and Rui are going to play a lot of SF. Bertans and Rui are going to play a lot of PF. Bryant is going to play a lot of C. The don't really have that same set at PG. I'd have preferred the team have found a better solution there than what they've got but I'm okay with it. Being patient in finding guys you actually want and focusing on them rather than just grabbing best available from the guys you don't want long term makes sense to me.

[Mojo Amok]

The Miles deal really looks all the worse now with Anderson let go. If we had just bought Dwight out instead of trading him, we'd have both a stronger roster in the short term and more wiggle room under the tax. We painted ourselves into a corner with filling out the roster too early and were unable to make room for targets of opportunity that shined in camp. At least not without looking foolish by cutting someone who we just acquired at a loss, which the new regime didn't want on the resume.

Am I to take it that Chiozza is safe for now? If so, I can at least get behind that.

[NatP4]

Sato who cares
Beal Brown Jr
Oubre Schofield
Porter Hachimura
Bryant who cares

[nate33]

Sato who cares
Beal Brown Jr
Oubre Schofield
Porter Hachimura
Bryant who cares

Ted wouldn't pay the luxtax to field that team.

[NatP4]

Sato who cares
Beal Brown Jr
Oubre Schofield
Porter Hachimura
Bryant who cares

Ted wouldn't pay the luxtax to field that team.

I bet that team would win the east this season. Oh well.

I’m excited for Rui and Brown Jr atleast.

[nate33]

Sato who cares
Beal Brown Jr
Oubre Schofield
Porter Hachimura
Bryant who cares

Ted wouldn't pay the luxtax to field that team.

I bet that team would win the east this season. Oh well.

I’m excited for Rui and Brown Jr atleast.

No, they're a 45-win team. It's not much different than the pre Porter trade Wizards last year.

[payitforward]

I just can't justify dumping both of those defensive-minded wings while keeping both of our diminutive 3rd string PG's (Robinson and Chiozza). It makes no sense. Heck, with Beal, Brown and Bonga all being capable of playing some PG, you can make a case that we'd be better of dumping both Robinson and Chiozza in order to keep both of Anderson and Jones.

Beal at PG doesn't make a lot of sense, really. Moving your star out of position to accommodate certain scrubs just isn't a great way to operate. If Anderson and/or Jones develop into legitimate rotation players, it makes sense but right now it doesn't appear like that's going to be the case. Jones can't score from anywhere outside of 3 feet and he isn't very big which makes scoring inside hard for him, too. He hustles and does a lot of stuff well and generally works hard but his game is extremely limited unless he figures some of that stuff out. And as a rebounder, he's admitted he doesn't box out and just goes for the rebound. That's great for his rebounding numbers but not necessarily what the Wizards are going to want.

As for Anderson, the Wizards are the 4th (?) team to try him out and pass on him. It might be more but I can't remember them all. People assume he's a good defender based on reputation and the fact that he's a poor offensive player but he's also got defensive issues that don't seem to go away. He might catch on somewhere eventually and I hope he does. Is he even as good as Stanley Johnson, though? I'm not so sure that's true and that's a rather low bar.

I'm not a big believer in either Chiozza or Robinson but I can see keeping both for now. It's not just about 3rd PG. Thomas hasn't played 40+ games in a couple seasons now, isn't getting any younger and is already hurt. Smith has a better track record of staying healthy but is 31 now and has never played 30 mpg or more in his career. Even if Smith is healthy, they're probably going to need ~20 mpg at PG and if he gets hurt, one those guys might wind up starting. I don't think Brown is a PG, though he's got a bit of point in him. I do think Bonga might and I think the Wizards are going to try him there, too. Beal is going to play a lot of SG. Brown and Rui are going to play a lot of SF. Bertans and Rui are going to play a lot of PF. Bryant is going to play a lot of C. The don't really have that same set at PG. I'd have preferred the team have found a better solution there than what they've got but I'm okay with it. Being patient in finding guys you actually want and focusing on them rather than just grabbing best available from the guys you don't want long term makes sense to me.

Your take on Anderson is completely off, & only one team "took a pass" -- unlike for example Jordan McRae where it was more than one. Your take on Jones is also empty -- guys who impact the game impact the game, & he does: any time Jones has played in an NBA game, he has had a big impact on it. The idea that it's better to box out than to get the rebound -- something Jones did last year at the rate of almost 14 boards per 40 minutes. -- is self-contradictory. An individual's rebounding numbers are entered directly in the team's rebounding numbers. Period. Hence, Jones getting more rebounds helps his team get more rebounds. Getting more rebounds gives your team more chances to score. More chances to score means more points scored -- please don't try to deny this obvious stuff in the name of some abstraction; this is just the way it is. If you get to take more shots you will score more points.

In any case, it's not about how "good" Anderson is or Jones is. It's a matter of comparison: however good or bad a player is, if you're choosing between him & another player, it's how good both candidates are. Anderson is comfortably better than McRae.

OTOH, you make a good point about IT. It's not just his being injured right now, it's that there's no way to feel confident IT will play any meaningful number of games. OTOH, guys like Chiozza, emergency PGs, are pretty easily available when required. Might not have to take in extra stock.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Dallas, Philly, Atlanta and now the Washington. That makes 4 to me. I don't think anyone is a bad player. I don't think Chiozza and Robinson are bad players. That said, any and every team can sign Anderson and Jones now. Nobody is signing them. One or both or neither of them might break out at some point. The Wizards will still have opportunities to sign them if they really want to later this season, though.

You talk about PGs as though they're readily available. I don't think so. I think part of the reason in looking at Chiozza and Robinson is there are fewer players who can fill that role of comparable value or better. If there was significantly better available, the Wizards would have that player now. The Wizards had both Anderson and Jones and let them go. I'd suggest it's easier to find interesting forwards than point guards for minimum salary flyers. The PG drop is steep. Hell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson went for barely above the minimum this offseason, too. And seems like he's already being called out by his coach for not following the game plan.