2019 season speculation including trade ideas

[sunsbg]

Our #1 might be the 5th best player in that draft. He’s just not a baller

Which is where a bunch of serious draft nerds ranked him pre-draft.

It's too early to tell, and I sure hope they were wrong, but evidence so far is in their favor.

Compared to your normal Suns #4-5 pick he's still great.

[WeekapaugGroove]

The Ayton negativity has multiple reasons.

First off because of his physical gifts expectations are high but he might end up being one of those guys that always leaves you wanting more, heck he was pretty good as a rookie but plenty of people were still disappointed.

Then you get some from the people who were hardcore Luka advocates and now have the 'I told you so' attitude.

Then you also have the camp that were big time Ayton people before the draft and have turned on him. People hate being wrong so if it looks like they might have backed the wrong horse then they will lash out.

[sunsbg]

It's not just you, it's a lot of people. A lot of people on twitter. I'm used to your posts obviously, the negative, to the very positive and back I guess.

I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of what you are saying...the timing of everyone saying it right now just seems odd. A lot of guys don't play with a lot of fire during the preseason...probably most. He has never looked like he had passion for the game, and rarely played with intensity, and a lot of times seems like his head isn't in it, and you saw and commented on the post about him playing the game "like it's his hobby" seems pretty on par too from a lot of his games. I just usually hear more about this type of stuff from people later than a week before tipoff of our first game.

I wouldn't have chosen to build a team around him either, but we did. A number of GMs picked Jaren Jackson to be the breakout player this year. Maybe if him and Bagley start out strong, as well as Trae and Doncic, it will help light that fire.

It is sad people are arguing that they'd rather have him than Trae, picked 5th. I hope he's a better choice than the 5th draft pick. Hopefully he's better than more than 1 player that went in the top 5.

And we know GMs never get it wrong. (Josh Jackson best player from his draft in 5 years)

I guess he's a modern big, because other than that I don't see how JJJ is any better than Ayton. 6 fouls in 20+ mins again the other night. 10 rbs though, which is a great accomplishment for him.

[sunsbg]

While this is an awesome find (really is), for every David Robinson there have been many bums who just never amounted to anything. Statistics may be against him, but our hope sure is that he gets it.

Being that The Admiral was one of my favorites just curious who were the players compared to him ?

[sunsbg]

The worse we do the less trade value they will have anyway. The trades that have been brought up wouldn't happen with the other teams anyway. And our team wouldn't likely trade Booker or probably Ayton since they are the faces and marketing of the franchise. However, many argued how we would draft Ayton because of the marketability and him being a UA guy. I can't imagine our attendance ended up being much higher last year, if it was higher at all, because of drafting him, after the first few weeks or so. It might have been higher with a different draft pick. But at this point, what's done is done. Of course we have a surprise draft choice this year too.

There was nothing surprising in drafting Ayton. The surprise was how easily Doncic's game translated to NBA, even for his biggest supporters.

[bwgood77]

It's not just you, it's a lot of people. A lot of people on twitter. I'm used to your posts obviously, the negative, to the very positive and back I guess.

I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of what you are saying...the timing of everyone saying it right now just seems odd. A lot of guys don't play with a lot of fire during the preseason...probably most. He has never looked like he had passion for the game, and rarely played with intensity, and a lot of times seems like his head isn't in it, and you saw and commented on the post about him playing the game "like it's his hobby" seems pretty on par too from a lot of his games. I just usually hear more about this type of stuff from people later than a week before tipoff of our first game.

I wouldn't have chosen to build a team around him either, but we did. A number of GMs picked Jaren Jackson to be the breakout player this year. Maybe if him and Bagley start out strong, as well as Trae and Doncic, it will help light that fire.

It is sad people are arguing that they'd rather have him than Trae, picked 5th. I hope he's a better choice than the 5th draft pick. Hopefully he's better than more than 1 player that went in the top 5.

And we know GMs never get it wrong. (Josh Jackson best player from his draft in 5 years)

I guess he's a modern big, because other than that I don't see how JJJ is any better than Ayton. 6 fouls in 20+ mins again the other night. 10 rbs though, which is a great accomplishment for him.

Well, depends on preference probably. JJJ is a 3&D big who can switch out to the perimeter and also protect the rim. Ayton is your mid/short range scorer and great rebounder. He can also switch out to the perimeter but no one would refer to him as a defensive big.

[MathiasPW]

While this is an awesome find (really is), for every David Robinson there have been many bums who just never amounted to anything. Statistics may be against him, but our hope sure is that he gets it.

Being that The Admiral was one of my favorites just curious who were the players compared to him ?

I can't tell how many draftees were compared to Robinson. I have only been following drafts closely for the past few years after they became an integral part of the Suns (lack of) strategy.

My point is that it is common to find projects that have an early-career path similar to big stars, but then just amount to nothing quickly. The hit rates of draft picks show this clearly - most drafted players do not amount to much or don't stick to the league at all. There have been so many "the next Kevin Durant", the next unicorn, the next whatever in the past years that it is hard to keep track.

[bwgood77]

The worse we do the less trade value they will have anyway. The trades that have been brought up wouldn't happen with the other teams anyway. And our team wouldn't likely trade Booker or probably Ayton since they are the faces and marketing of the franchise. However, many argued how we would draft Ayton because of the marketability and him being a UA guy. I can't imagine our attendance ended up being much higher last year, if it was higher at all, because of drafting him, after the first few weeks or so. It might have been higher with a different draft pick. But at this point, what's done is done. Of course we have a surprise draft choice this year too.

There was nothing surprising in drafting Ayton. The surprise was how easily Doncic's game translated to NBA, even for his biggest supporters.

I didn't mean to insinuate Ayton was a surprise..it certainly wasn't too me, nor was Josh Jackson. It may have been a slight surprise for some who thought we hired Igor because we wanted Doncic, but it seems those were mostly non fans, such as Bill Simmons or some other pundits.

I just meant of course after picking a few busts before Ayton, and some are not happy with Ayton's play, we have a surprise pick this year. But maybe that's a good thing. Doing what's expected hasn't exactly worked out for us.

[bwgood77]

While this is an awesome find (really is), for every David Robinson there have been many bums who just never amounted to anything. Statistics may be against him, but our hope sure is that he gets it.

Being that The Admiral was one of my favorites just curious who were the players compared to him ?

I can't tell how many draftees were compared to Robinson. I have only been following drafts closely for the past few years after they became an integral part of the Suns (lack of) strategy.

My point is that it is common to find projects that have an early-career path similar to big stars, but then just amount to nothing quickly. The hit rates of draft picks show this clearly - most drafted players do not amount to much or don't stick to the league at all. There have been so many "the next Kevin Durant", the next unicorn, the next whatever in the past years that it is hard to keep track.

I think the main reason some compared him to Robinson pre draft was because of their physical stature, because their play is not really anything alike.

[GoodBehavior]

Check out Saric's response to a question about DA:

You played with Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns. Now you’re playing with Deandre Ayton. What have you seen in Ayton that makes you think he could be a special big?

Both of them are really good offensively. Both of them are probably top three, top two big men in the league. Deandre is extremely talented. He's a guy who for sure one day could come upon that level like those two guys. I don't know if that’ll be next year, this year, for two years, three years, but what I see from him is similar. He can shoot. He can play on the low post. He's great on defense. I think he can be like them. He's got the potential to be like them, maybe even better than them. One day, he will be on their level.

[bwgood77]

This is from Gina Mizell's mailbag:

I can understand why his demeanor can be aggravating to fans who want their 7-footer to be straight-up imposing. You can’t force somebody to change their personality, nor should you want them to, as being disingenuous is typically met with eyerolls in NBA locker rooms. But I think Ayton can still organically develop more of an on-court edge and physicality to go along with his skills and efficiency. I’m curious to see what type of growth we see in that regard from Ayton after working with assistant Mark Bryant for an entire season. Steven Adams (perhaps the toughest dude in the league), Domantis Sabonis and Enes Kanter have all spoken about how challenging (and beneficial) it was to go up against Bryant in practice, and how much they learned from him. Bryant is still a truck.

[Mystical Apples]

It's strange to see so many people bashing Ayton so badly and a bunch talking about trading him for Towns before we've even played 1 game.

I'm used to seeing people more pumped up going into the season and not getting down until 10 games in (or in some years 2 or 3).

But a second year player before he's played getting this much negative talk, and talk of trading him, especially considering our draft picks the two years before, is a bit bizarre.

Just to clarify it wasn’t my intention to leave the impression I was disparaging Ayton (if that was in fact the impression).

The stats I linked were to highlight the team nature of defensive rebounding. In general, IMO it’s one of the most overrated individual stats — not the actual act of securing the basketball, but the counting stat itself that ignores the trade offs of defensive proximity, boxing out, and the benefits of allowing primary handlers to secure the basketball instead.

Of course the above is just referring to the distinction between individual counting stats and team impact. Where rebounds are super valuable are as a projection tool for young players like Ayton. Even if the team impact hasn’t caught up yet, his individual rebounding would make me believe it’ll happen eventually and probably sooner rather than later.

In that way IMO individual rebounds sans impact are kinda like crediting turnovers, not debiting, for young high volume playmakers if their low assist : tov ratio is from a high turnover rate. The assumption being experience alone should help increase their overall value compared to the already careful, high assist : tov players who have no such untapped potential in that category.

The other massive distinction I wanted to clarify is Regular Season impact vs Playoffs. Ayton’s individual rebounding is far more valuable in the Playoffs where winning individual battles is more important than 5-man schemes that are less effective.

Also, the above is mostly referring to defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounding is an individual thing and all things equal is super valuable esp. if he adds some 3P spacing too.

[bwoolf2]

It's strange to see so many people bashing Ayton so badly and a bunch talking about trading him for Towns before we've even played 1 game.

I'm used to seeing people more pumped up going into the season and not getting down until 10 games in (or in some years 2 or 3).

But a second year player before he's played getting this much negative talk, and talk of trading him, especially considering our draft picks the two years before, is a bit bizarre.

Just to clarify it wasn’t my intention to leave the impression I was disparaging Ayton (if that was in fact the impression).

The stats I linked were to highlight the team nature of defensive rebounding. In general, IMO it’s one of the most overrated individual stats — not the actual act of securing the basketball, but the counting stat itself that ignores the trade offs of defensive proximity, boxing out, and the benefits of allowing primary handlers to secure the basketball instead.

Of course the above is just referring to the distinction between individual counting stats and team impact. Where rebounds are super valuable are as a projection tool for young players like Ayton. Even if the team impact hasn’t caught up yet, his individual rebounding would make me believe it’ll happen eventually and probably sooner rather than later.

In that way IMO individual rebounds sans impact are kinda like crediting turnovers, not debiting, for young high volume playmakers if their low assist : tov ratio is from a high turnover rate. The assumption being experience alone should help increase their overall value compared to the already careful, high assist : tov players who have no such untapped potential in that category.

The other massive distinction I wanted to clarify is Regular Season impact vs Playoffs. Ayton’s individual rebounding is far more valuable in the Playoffs where winning individual battles is more important than 5-man schemes that are less effective.

Also, the above is mostly referring to defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounding is an individual thing and all things equal is super valuable esp. if he adds some 3P spacing too.

I have some friends that have ties to Ayton and his family, and let me be careful in saying this he is a little like Marquese Chriss in that he is still like a little kid, he just wants to have fun and be friends with everyone. He is going to take some extra time to mature into a true pro vs someone like Doncic who has been a pro for decade. He is highly skilled and not a knucklehead like Chriss and Jackson so he will mature its just going to take time and we are going to have to show some patience, not this worlds strong-suit at this point. he will be great just going to take time...

[bwgood77]

It's strange to see so many people bashing Ayton so badly and a bunch talking about trading him for Towns before we've even played 1 game.

I'm used to seeing people more pumped up going into the season and not getting down until 10 games in (or in some years 2 or 3).

But a second year player before he's played getting this much negative talk, and talk of trading him, especially considering our draft picks the two years before, is a bit bizarre.

Just to clarify it wasn’t my intention to leave the impression I was disparaging Ayton (if that was in fact the impression).

The stats I linked were to highlight the team nature of defensive rebounding. In general, IMO it’s one of the most overrated individual stats — not the actual act of securing the basketball, but the counting stat itself that ignores the trade offs of defensive proximity, boxing out, and the benefits of allowing primary handlers to secure the basketball instead.

Of course the above is just referring to the distinction between individual counting stats and team impact. Where rebounds are super valuable are as a projection tool for young players like Ayton. Even if the team impact hasn’t caught up yet, his individual rebounding would make me believe it’ll happen eventually and probably sooner rather than later.

In that way IMO individual rebounds sans impact are kinda like crediting turnovers, not debiting, for young high volume playmakers if their low assist : tov ratio is from a high turnover rate. The assumption being experience alone should help increase their overall value compared to the already careful, high assist : tov players who have no such untapped potential in that category.

The other massive distinction I wanted to clarify is Regular Season impact vs Playoffs. Ayton’s individual rebounding is far more valuable in the Playoffs where winning individual battles is more important than 5-man schemes that are less effective.

Also, the above is mostly referring to defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounding is an individual thing and all things equal is super valuable esp. if he adds some 3P spacing too.

I wasn't directing my post to anyone specifically, and mostly it was during the game thread and people suggesting and doing polls on twitter about an Ayton or Ayton/Bridges for Towns swap (not that Minneosta would entertain these anyway).

I agree with you on rebounding. Makes me think of Westbrook. Adams might have been more important to Westbrook's rebounding #s than Westbrook. That's not to say Westbrook isn't a great rebounding point guard, but boxing guys out and doing all the little things are often some of the more important things that often can get overlooked when just looking at stats.

[bwgood77]

It's strange to see so many people bashing Ayton so badly and a bunch talking about trading him for Towns before we've even played 1 game.

I'm used to seeing people more pumped up going into the season and not getting down until 10 games in (or in some years 2 or 3).

But a second year player before he's played getting this much negative talk, and talk of trading him, especially considering our draft picks the two years before, is a bit bizarre.

Just to clarify it wasn’t my intention to leave the impression I was disparaging Ayton (if that was in fact the impression).

The stats I linked were to highlight the team nature of defensive rebounding. In general, IMO it’s one of the most overrated individual stats — not the actual act of securing the basketball, but the counting stat itself that ignores the trade offs of defensive proximity, boxing out, and the benefits of allowing primary handlers to secure the basketball instead.

Of course the above is just referring to the distinction between individual counting stats and team impact. Where rebounds are super valuable are as a projection tool for young players like Ayton. Even if the team impact hasn’t caught up yet, his individual rebounding would make me believe it’ll happen eventually and probably sooner rather than later.

In that way IMO individual rebounds sans impact are kinda like crediting turnovers, not debiting, for young high volume playmakers if their low assist : tov ratio is from a high turnover rate. The assumption being experience alone should help increase their overall value compared to the already careful, high assist : tov players who have no such untapped potential in that category.

The other massive distinction I wanted to clarify is Regular Season impact vs Playoffs. Ayton’s individual rebounding is far more valuable in the Playoffs where winning individual battles is more important than 5-man schemes that are less effective.

Also, the above is mostly referring to defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounding is an individual thing and all things equal is super valuable esp. if he adds some 3P spacing too.

I have some friends that have ties to Ayton and his family, and let me be careful in saying this he is a little like Marquese Chriss in that he is still like a little kid, he just wants to have fun and be friends with everyone. He is going to take some extra time to mature into a true pro vs someone like Doncic who has been a pro for decade. He is highly skilled and not a knucklehead like Chriss and Jackson so he will mature its just going to take time and we are going to have to show some patience, not this worlds strong-suit at this point. he will be great just going to take time...

Reminds me of the other stuff Gina said in her mailbag regardigng Ayton (this part came before the part I posted above)..

He absolutely wants to be good and has spoken multiple times about how gratifying it would be for him to help the Suns “rise” again. I will say that he does not have a hard-nosed or super-serious personality off the court, and at times that bleeds onto the court. He’s goofy. He speaks off the cuff in postgame interviews, and I don’t think he always realizes how those answers might come across when read in a tweet/story or watched/heard in a soundbite. He’s not necessarily immature, but he has moments in which he just comes across as … young. Which at age 21, he is.

[Jarlaxle0204]

A 27 year old Ayton is going to be something to behold. He's a kid now.

[sasquatchBob]

Whatever Bwg
This is an observation from me. The kid runs his mouth about how good he's going to be, when he frankly is, miles away on what we/others think he can potentially be. His lack of passion for this game is evident. I don't care how old he is, how many yrs he has.... passion and fire have no age limits. Compare his approach to the game to Bagley or Donic. Those guys are killers. They bring it. They are not resting on the compliments and accolades and ego pumping reach arounds that everyone is giving them. Ayton dines on that syrup daily.

The trade talk is just fun stuff that gets done around here. We all know it won't happen for a while. but No more far fetched than the 20 and 10 he's a HOFer chatter. But If this candy sucking kid doesn't man up and start showing some aggression, some determination (and just shuts the F up)....well then may be we have something. He's a nice kid whose basketball career has been paved with pyrite bricks simply due to his physical stature. He is the poster child for 'IF'.

Unbelievable potential, but subpar determination. He plays scared. How do you correct that Is it his nature ? I'll creep out on the stereotyping limb and attribute part of his passiveness to his cultural upbringing. I've known several people from the islands, and they are truly the most consistently laid back people Ive met. Im sure there are some 'baddies' down there... but in my limited old white guy experience, hands down, overall, they are the nicest group of people I know, top to bottom. May be its a front...IDK. But this kid has way too much of a jolly-by-golly attitude to be on a fast track to superstardom.

To build a team around him at this point the wrong direction to go. Stats be damned, he's the weak link in the starting 5.

I completely agree with everything you've said. I started feeling like this about him since the end of the last season. His attitude on and off the court is very worrying.

[bigfoot]

The worse we do the less trade value they will have anyway. The trades that have been brought up wouldn't happen with the other teams anyway. And our team wouldn't likely trade Booker or probably Ayton since they are the faces and marketing of the franchise. However, many argued how we would draft Ayton because of the marketability and him being a UA guy. I can't imagine our attendance ended up being much higher last year, if it was higher at all, because of drafting him, after the first few weeks or so. It might have been higher with a different draft pick. But at this point, what's done is done. Of course we have a surprise draft choice this year too.

There was nothing surprising in drafting Ayton. The surprise was how easily Doncic's game translated to NBA, even for his biggest supporters.

I was big Doncic supporter and certainly wasn't surprised about how his game translated. The kid played and dominated on some of the biggest stages in the world between the World Cup and EuroCup. It was evident that he was a gamer and not a mental midget which is what I fear we have in Ayton.

[Crives]

Fun stat.. we won more games then the Mavs post all star break last year.

[bwgood77]

Fun stat.. we won more games then the Mavs post all star break last year.

They also traded like 3 of their starters (DeAndre Jordan, DSJr and Wesley Matthews) in that trade and got back an injured star who didn't play. And then traded their other starter (besides Doncic) in Harrison Barnes to Sacramento for 2nd year player Justin Jackson who was/is still in development. JJ Barea had also gone down with a season ending injury.

They were playing with a skeleton crew post all star break. Tim Hardaway jr who they got in the trade was out like the last 10 games of the season too.