freethedevil wrote:liamliam1234 wrote:You know, I was going to make a bunch of small points about why I do not feel those box score metrics properly represent the playoff gap with Kawhi
Given that box based metrics are inherently biased towards offensive players, I'm not seeing how they'd diminish rather than exaggerate the playoff gap.
I'm not going to get into the rest of it, because we're unlikely to break any new ground, but the stats t rex cited have a clear bias towards a player like kawhi or kd vs a player like embid or giannis
Wow, it is almost as if I knew you would feel compelled to weigh in.
It starts with those metrics not saying much about opposition. If we agree Kawhi outplayed Giannis over the final four games of their series, and that Kawhi was even better against Philadelphia, and that Kawhi went against three straight top five playoff defences (granted, Giannis did go against #1 and #6 or 7), I think that is a glaring signal that you cannot just glance at Giannis beating up mediocre teams for two rounds and conclude they were equal runs.
LA Bird wrote:liamliam1234 wrote:With Karl Malone in mind, I will repeat my question from the previous thread:
How do 1997 Malone voters (or likely voters) resolve that year being clearly one of his weakest individual postseasons, specifically in comparison to 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998 (two years sandwiching it!). Yes, he won MVP, but it is not like his regular season performance was that far ahead of those other four years (at least not by enough to overlook one of his absolute worst postseason runs). I favour 1992 personally, but I could allow myself to be swayed by any of those other three. 1997, though, in my eyes has no real case as his true peak because of that egregious playoff dip.
The 92 playoffs was Malone's peak in terms of postseason TS% but scoring more efficiently on lower volume does not necessarily mean he was a more valuable offensive player. For example, Robinson scored on much higher efficiency in the 90/91 playoffs (62% TS) than he did in 94/95 (52% TS) but DRob was definitely not better offensively as a rookie than he was later at his peak years.
Not a fair comparison in context. Robinson was
72% in
4 games; KMalone maintained his efficiency through the conference finals. Looking at the regular season, it is pretty obvious that level of efficiency was KMalone’s regular season scoring base. The difference was in 1992 he managed to carry it over. Also, logically, 1992 has its reasonable case as his athletic peak, before he started relying as heavily on his jump-shot.
Similar case for Malone, whose improvement as a passer and as somebody who can create his own offense outside of Stockton made him a stronger offensive player later on in his career.
Disagree that KMalone was ever that reliant on Stockton; at least, not by 1992. But yes, you can definitely argue the passing advantage, which is why I offered those other years.
94 is an interesting season because while it was an uncharacteristically poor offensive regular season from Malone, it was his defensive peak and he had an impressive statistical playoffs run for his RS standards. If we consider the massive RS on-off difference between Malone and Stockton to be due to his defense that season and that he was an elite defensive big man (which I don't think can be said for any of his other seasons even when he won All-Defense honors), I could see 94 being argued as Malone's peak.
Agreed. Also worth mentioning is the ridiculous defensive opposition he faced in the 1994 playoffs (Robinson, Mutombo, Hakeem).
I am not seeing the case for 96 since it doesn't really have any distinct advantages over the other key Malone seasons as far as I am concerned. 98 Malone is somewhat similar to 97 but he loses the large on/off advantage over Stockton he had in 97 and the box score composites are worse across the board. Malone's box score offensive numbers do look pretty bad in the 97 playoffs but does his individual numbers matter much if he is still carrying Utah to as good an offense as they were in the regular season? He had slightly better looking numbers in the 98 playoffs but the Jazz suffered the largest regular season to playoffs rORtg drop of Malone's career (+7.7 to +2.5). For comparison, in 97, the Jazz maintained their elite regular season +6.9 rORtg in the playoffs. Maybe I am putting too much emphasis on Utah's team offense numbers but considering Malone's track record of underwhelming postseason stats yet at the same time consistently leading Utah to solid postseason team offenses with his high offensive volume, we have to consider the possibility that his box score dips aren't actually that damaging to his team's offensive performance. Sure, he could have played better but being the #1 option on a championship level +7 postseason offense is still very good. I would be more concerned if Utah's postseason offense was regularly declining along with Malone's individual numbers like what happened with peak Robinson and the Spurs.
1997 and 1998 comparison is fair... but then it makes your immediate dismissal of 1996 all the more baffling.
First, 1996 was their best playoff team. +7.2 relative offence, -7.5 relative defence. Granted, no Bulls series. But it was also Malone’s postseason passing peak. 4.4 assists per game in the playoffs, 23.2% assist rate...
Which brings me back to my original point: in terms of postseason only, 1997 does not really have any advantage over anything. Not his best in box score metrics (by far the worst compared to the other four I mentioned), not his best in scoring (again, comfortably his worst), not his best in defence (1994 and likely 1996), not his best in passing (only beats 1992 of the four years I mentioned), not his best in team performance (1996)... Really, you tossing away 1996 makes zero sense to me because by your standards it should probably be his best postseason.
Anyway, sorry for my temporary absence; I will also be preoccupied next week, but I should at least be able to check sporadically (as opposed to these past few days).
1. 1969 Willis ReedWhy not 1970? Well, a few reasons.
Reed deserved MVP this year. I know the Bullets had this huge leap with Unseld, but benefit of hindsight I think has put that vote in its proper context. First, in the eyes of MVP voters, apparently Unseld peaked as a rookie, because he never came close to replicating this.
Second, the Bullets winning three more games than the Knicks does not reflect the fact the Bullets only had a +4.04 SRS, as compared to the +5.48 SRS of the Knicks. Reed also led the league in win shares and WS/48 (Unseld was 8 and 9), and considering the fact Russell was
still clearly the league’s best defensive player, the case for Unseld clearly becomes just a matter of that wins leap and that misleading top seed finish. Which is not nothing, of course, but it does feel like too much weight was given to a few accumulated clutch wins (and hey, maybe Unseld was a clutch god on offence; but I kind-of doubt it).
But then you look at the playoffs: 25/14/2 on +7.1% rTS against... oh, look, Wes Unseld and Bill Russell. His .242 playoff WS/48 as the most impactful player on his team is one of the better marks left, he paired it with an MVP-worthy regular season, and he immediately proved his ability to lead a team to a title (with Russell gone and Frazier rapidly improving) the year after. The combination of all that is mostly enough for me this late in the rankings.
2. 1975 Artis GilmoreStill hoping to hear more from 70sFan to potentially justify him receiving my top vote. In my mind, I do not see a way he is meaningfully below Reed. Giving Reed the edge for now because of his competition level, but Gilmore’s profile is just so incredible that I cannot dismiss it simply by way of “weak league”. I mean, we just voted in Mikan, and does anyone doubt that Gilmore could have been at least as dominant in his place?
3. 1972 Walt FrazierHis best playoffs and regular season, with incredible team results in both considering Reed’s absence. Comparisons with Chris Paul colour my vote here. One of the league’s best perimetre defenders and passers, with superb scoring as well. Playoff elevator capable of leading his team to a title, as evidenced by what happened as soon as Reed returned the following year (frustrating that he missed out on Finals MVP, but it happens). Easily the best championship guard left on the board; I find the votes for Barry or Isiah over him to be profoundly baffling.
Not remotely locked into any of these, but I mostly just want to spark a bit of discussion on the names while leaning hard into my usual championship focus (Pettit versus KMalone is an interesting consideration for me). And I am not looking to swing the Giannis/KMalone debate on my own.
