Rodney Hood breakout candidate?

[pootbrah]

Hood was our saviour multiple times in the playoffs. Any chance of him breaking out into more than a role player this season? He was very hyped following his rookie season.

[BlazersBroncos]

I don't see it. I think playoff Hood is going to show itself an anomaly. He is a terrific 7th man or slightly above average 6th man, but I wouldn't even put him up against the top 10 or so 6th men in this league. He still coasts too often, takes too many contested long 2 pointers and ignores his suprising post abilities. He also rarely scores in the flow of the offense it seems. The team needs someone other than our main guards who can create for themselves so Rodney fills a role, but he swings to far that way and fails to score easy buckets IMO. Everything comes hard to him on iso plays.

[ebott]

I am interested to see how different his game will be as he is now the starting small forward rather than the backup shooting guard. I expect his role will largely be to stand in the corner and wait for a pass from Dame or CJ. We will see if he can manafest anything additional.

[Wizenheimer]

Hood is 26 years old and this will be his 6th season. He has started 227 or his 320 games. He's averaged 27 minutes over his career. He's firmly established his game while burning thru upside, and there's just not much room for any breakout above his norms

further, he's going to be in a starting line-up with 2 ball-dominant, high-usage guards and a high usage C who has averaged 0.6 assists over his career. He's more assertive than Harkless with a little better set of offensive tools, but he also has a career assisted FG rate of only 50% and he'll be no higher than a 4th option for iso and one-on-one most of the time.

he's a role player whose career PER, TS%, eFG%, box +/-, and RPM are all below average. His career assist rate is lower than Nurkic while his career rebound rate is worse than 6'2 Lillard. And, he's nowhere close to the defender that Harkless and Aminu were. He'll have some great games and he's going to have some stinkers. Inconsistencies are his norms, like most role players (and even stars). He may fit better in the starting lineup than Harkless did on offense, but not on defense.

Portland has breakout candidates: Zach-Simons-Hezonja-Skal, but Hood doesn't seem to fit

[GEE]

I agree with the analysis that Hood is a 6'8 SG, being used as our starting SF. 12 pts / 3 reb / 3 asst / 1 steal, while shooting 38-42% from beyond the arc is about what I expect.

I can also comfortably say that the Blazers' "Breakout candidate" will be Collins. 18 pts / 12 reb / 4 asst / 2 blks, while shooting over 50% and 35-38% from beyond the arc is what I expect from him. This could also change dramatically, if he's played heavily out of position at Center, which could also get him injured.

[BlazersBroncos]

I can also comfortably say that the Blazers' "Breakout candidate" will be Collins. 18 pts / 12 reb / 4 asst / 2 blks,

That's quite the breakout there. I would wager there is a better chance Trump and Pelosi open mouth kiss while riding a megalodon shark than there is for Zach to average 12 rebounds and 4 assists.

[Wizenheimer]

I can also comfortably say that the Blazers' "Breakout candidate" will be Collins. 18 pts / 12 reb / 4 asst / 2 blks, while shooting over 50% and 35-38% from beyond the arc is what I expect from him. This could also change dramatically, if he's played heavily out of position at Center, which could also get him injured.

those are crazy numbers

Zach had above average shooting efficiency last season and only averaged 6.6 points in 17.6 minutes. If he maintains the same efficiency while playing more minutes and shooting more (something that's hard to do), he'd need 14 FGA/game. For perspective, Nurkic only averaged 11.5, and Whiteside will be as heavy-usage as Nurkic. And Hood will be starting and is more aggressive on offense than Harkless was. In the Dame/CJ era, no other Blazer has averaged more than 12 FGA.

as for rebounds, 12 a game would have had him 8th in the NBA last season. That was Vucevic and he had a rebound rate of 20.5%. Zach's reb rate was only 12.7%. He's not going to increase his rate by 62% this season, especially not playing next to Whiteside who is a rebounding monster on both ends of the floor

4 assists? not a chance. No Blazer besides Dame hit or exceeded the 4 assist mark last season. Nurkic only averaged 3.2

even 2 blocks seems a tall order. Only 5 players hit that mark last season and all 5 were full time C's

[d-train]

Zach isn't going to hit any of those numbers except maybe blocks. His role isn't to put up numbers.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think a great season from Zach would be 13ppg, 7rpg, 1.5bpg, 1.5apg on incrementally improved efficiency from last season and a more consistent 3PT shot while showing good defensive metrics and passing the eye test as well.

I am a huge Zach fan, think he is going to be our PF Myles Turner (Which is very high praise), and think he is more of a cornerstone moving forward than even CJ. But he isn't going to put up huge stats anytime in his career IMO. What he will do is contribute to winning basketball teams. He is that type of player.

[pootbrah]

I watched the playoffs.... I know all about Zach boysss. Zach breaking out goes without staying, we know he's already thrust into the starting lineup.

[Malapropism]

I think a great season from Zach would be 13ppg, 7rpg, 1.5bpg, 1.5apg on incrementally improved efficiency from last season and a more consistent 3PT shot while showing good defensive metrics and passing the eye test as well.

I am a huge Zach fan, think he is going to be our PF Myles Turner (Which is very high praise), and think he is more of a cornerstone moving forward than even CJ. But he isn't going to put up huge stats anytime in his career IMO. What he will do is contribute to winning basketball teams. He is that type of player.

Turner is actually quite a good comparison. They both have pretty similar style of play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Myles+Turner&player_id1_select=Myles+Turner&player_id1=turnemy01&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Zach+Collins&player_id2_select=Zach+Collins&y2=2019&player_id2=colliza01&idx=players

Here is both players at the same age (21). Their stats are very similar. Nearly identical rebound rates, assist rates, scoring efficiency, shot distribution, steal%. Myles has a higher block% and usage rate. I expect Zach's usage rate to increase with his role this year. His block % will depend more on whether he's playing more center or PF, but we know he's a good rim protector. Zach has a higher TO%, my guess is from his excessive fouling (and moving screens) which is also reflected in their foul differential.

Turner hasn't really improved much in his 4 years in the league, but he's making $18M a year and it's quite a fair deal. If Zach can get to Turner's level of play or even be a slightly worse version I'd be quite happy. An $18M level player at the 10th pick is quite good.

[d-train]

Zach is going to get roughly the same number of shots as Aminu or Harkless got. Unless, he invents a way to score without being in the offense and shooting, he isn't going to score a lot.

Bazemore and Hood will score a little more because they will have some playmaking responsibility Aminu and Harkless didn't have. In particular, Bazemore will be more of a playmaker. It will be interesting to see what the offense is going to look like with playmakers other than Lillard, CJ, and a highpost center.

[Malapropism]

Zach is going to get roughly the same number of shots as Aminu or Harkless got. Unless, he invents a way to score without being in the offense and shooting, he isn't going to score a lot.

Bazemore and Hood will score a little more because they will have some playmaking responsibility Aminu and Harkless didn't have. In particular, Bazemore will be more of a playmaker. It will be interesting to see what the offense is going to look like with playmakers other than Lillard, CJ, and a highpost center.

Not really. If Zach's role in the offense is to stand in the corner and shoot 3s then he's gonna get pulled from the starting lineup really quick. He's not as consistent of a shooter as Aminu even.

More likely it's going to be what we saw in the preseason. They're going to use him in PnR/PnP rotations, especially with his minutes at center. His usage rate was quite high in the preseason (25%). It definitely won't be as high in the regular season, but a good medium would put him at around 20%.

[GEE]

I'm sticking by what I said.

Hood, a 6'8 SG, will likely average what he's averaged for his career and maybe a hair less, This would actually be quite good considering, as Wiz mentioned, he'll be playing with two ball dominant guards that will get most of the guards minutes and take tons of shots.

Collins WILL BE the breakout player. Though those numbers may be a tad high, I believe he's capable of such, but as I stated, it will depend on how he's used. If he's allowed to operate as the ultimate stretch 4 that he is, he will thrive, if forced into a post-up style of game, he won't. The number of assists/game for this team will also be a huge variable, especially from Dame and CJ's stat lines.

If 15 / 10 / 3 / 1.8 make ya'll feel better, than fine. I think he gets at least this, but my point remains, He will still be the breakout player.

[Wizenheimer]

If 15 / 10 / 3 / 1.8 make ya'll feel better, than fine. I think he gets at least this, but my point remains, He will still be the breakout player.

15 points maybe...if he really ramps up his efficiency. At last year's efficiency, that would be 11.8 FGA/game which is still more that Nurkic last year. Between Dame, CJ, Simons, Whiteside, Hood, and Bazemore I have a real hard time seeing Zach being the 3rd option, and nearly 12 FGA's a game would be 3rd option territory

as for 10 rebounds a game, what makes you believe Zach is going have a dramatic enough improvement to go from 4 rebounds to 10? I mean, Aldridge only averaged 10 twice in 9 years and he was averaging 36 minutes a game with a 16% rebound rate. Last season, Zach averaged 18 minutes with a 12.7% rebound rate.

I get that you're real high on Zach, but man, those numbers you see just don't seem very realistic.

[DusterBuster]

I admittedly have pretty high hopes for Rodney. Of all the new Blazers, I'd love to see him be the breakout guy for the team.

[DoItALL9]

Had Hood been having issues with his Achilles prior to this season?

I'm guessing the timetable for his return is likely between the start of next season and new year's 2021?

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[Sinobas]

The last nail in the coffin. The additions of Hood, Curry and Kanter last year were a big part of the Blazers success, and now they've lost all 3.

[d-train]

Blazers are going to be better without Hood. Not because Hood is bad, he has played well. We are going to be better because he will be replaced by a player that plays with more hustle and intensity. We will lose some shooting but it will be more than made up by other gains, IMO.

The loss of Hood might also make Portland an attractive destination for Iguodala. Should Iguodala become a free agent, he will have lots of options. Blazers won't be his best chance to get a championship but he would have a big role on a team that can go deep. And, we have players his age to recruit him.