2019-20 NBA Season Discussion

[E-Balla]

He's not just an iso scorer, he's one of the most gifted passers in the league. Mike Conley is 32 and struggling to adjust to his new team, can we have some patience for the 23 year old here?

Agreeing with EBalla here, yeah sure if Russell plays like this for half a season instead of 4 games his value will drop, as of now it's barely a blip on the radar.

He’s of course not going to play this bad all season.

But what do we expect from Russell? He is an inefficient scorer who right now is scoring inefficiently.

He wasn't paid for what he can do scoring and he wasn't a bluechip prospect for his scoring. Again, he's one of the best passers in the league at the age of 23 and was an All Star as a 22 year old PG, something only HOFers, MVPs, and Baron Davis have done before (Westbrook, Isiah, Rose, Magic, West, CP3, Kyrie, Kidd, Cousy, and Simmons are the only other PGs to pull this off).

So what do we expect? For the 2nd overall pick of the 2015 Draft that's improved literally every year of his career and averaged 24/4/7 (28/5/9 per 36) on 55 TS% in the 2019 calendar year last season to improve on his already extremely high level passing abilities and decent shooting abilities to become one of the better offensive weapons in the league maybe? 4 games with a new team averaging 16/4/6 while your shot is off isn't a sure sign a blue chip prospect who's shown constant improvement has hit the wall. It's a representation of a small ass sample size and rough start to the season.

Like he's 25% on 3s off the bounce (usually around 33-35% his whole career so far) and 31% on 2s off the bounce (45% each of the last 2 seasons). He's 23% on open 3s. How anyone can see this as a true representation of his level of play is absurd.

Again (and IDK why I keep having to say this around here) TS% isn't the measurement of the abilities and potential of a player. It's a stat showing how efficient a player is at scoring. Says nothing about the difficulty of the shots being made or how many opportunities they're creating for their teammates. Anyone that watched Brooklyn last year and wasn't impressed by Russell was blind, which is why I spent this whole offseason arguing about how Brooklyn made the wrong move replacing him with Kyrie when Russell outplayed Kyrie last season.

The contract he received was predicated on him becoming a better player over the course of the deal. But if he has another year like last year ~20 PPG on -2 TS%, What team is going to pay a “small fortune” for him given you really aren’t expecting much improvement going forward?

Isiah Thomas scored 21 ppg on -2 rTS% in 1984 at the age of 22 while leading the #1 offense and I'm sure anyone with half a brain would give 84 Zeke a max 2nd contract if he was up for one last offseason. Can we stop reducing the value of every player to their damn TS%?

What's the last 22 year old PG (excluding Simmons) that was as good as DLo was last year? Now tell me if that player would've been worth the max. I think you're not realizing how young DLo is. At Russell's age Curry was averaging under 15 ppg and barely over 5 apg. Damian Lillard at the age Russell was last year was a rookie. Unathletic Gs usually peak way later than athletic ones.

[clyde21]

i don't see how DLo is one of the best passers in the league at all, he's okay, most of his assists last year came just from PnR plays but he's not that good of a passer in the full court or even as a drive-kick guy really...i think you're overrating him in that sense

he's also a one-trick-pony on offense, primarily a PnR guy and an inefficient one to boot

and that's before we get into how inept he is off-ball or on the defensive end.

[E-Balla]

it's not really a blip, he's had one 'good' year really,

He's a 23 year old PG. Find me a PG not in the HOF or without a league MVP to have multiple "good" seasons before the age of 23? Like literally one in the 73 year history of the NBA. If that's the standard we're holding him to, yes DLo isn't as good as Magic, Derrick Rose, and Isiah Thomas. Must be a bum.

was a substitute all-star in a historically weak EC, look at what happened to his numbers in the POs last year, 36% from the field and 44% TS once he wasn't allowed to just spam PnR every possession

Look at KD's first playoff series. Big whoop, a 22 year old in his first ever playoff series against an opponent that vastly outmatched his team had a shaky performance.

he's just not that good, really does nothing off-ball, doesn't understand how to do any of the little things like setting picks or screens or relocating, is a marginal athlete, cannot defend either on-ball or team defense, essentially a one trick pony on offense and not a very efficient one at that, and is primarily a half-court guy than a transition or full court guy...really all things that just do not fit on this team at all.

So you didn't watch much of him before these last 4 games I presume? Because this doesn't describe DLo at all. The only time he's played on a slow paced team was his rookie year (aka the Kobe farewell tour). If he's a one trick pony his one trick is generational passing ability, which is a pretty damn good trick for a PG in the NBA.

[clyde21]

^ we will agree to disagree on DLo, I don't see what you're seeing at all tbh.

[yoyoboy]

I don't know if you guys saw, but in the interview on First Take, KD admitted that the altercation with Draymond where he basically said "we don't need you" was a factor in him leaving. Not exactly surprising I guess considering Durant's personality.

[clyde21]

I don't know if you guys saw, but in the interview on First Take, KD admitted that the altercation with Draymond where he basically said "we don't need you" was a factor in him leaving. Not exactly surprising I guess considering Durant's personality.

imagine losing KD because of Dray's big mouth

[E-Balla]

i don't see how DLo is one of the best passers in the league at all, he's okay, most of his assists last year came just from PnR plays but he's not that good of a passer in the full court or even as a drive-kick guy really...i think you're overrating him in that sense

he's also a one-trick-pony on offense, primarily a PnR guy and an inefficient one to boot

and that's before we get into how inept he is off-ball or on the defensive end.

He's in the 67th percentile for PNR scoring and his passing in the PNR is top tier. Easily top 3 in the league along with LeBron and CP3.

Off ball he's in the 82nd percentile of spot up shooters (once you account for turnovers in catch and shoot situations too) and while he isn't the best player off ball (in terms of movement) he's definitely better than the average PG.

[liamliam1234]

If that's the standard we're holding him to, yes DLo isn't as good as Magic, Derrick Rose, and Isiah Thomas.

I also do not think 2011 Derrick Rose would be worth a maximum contract in today’s league.

You keep calling Russell a “generational” passer, based on what? He is worse than Young, Lonzo, and Simmons, and he probably projects as worse than Morant, so exactly how many guys qualify as “generational”? He contentiously made all-star as a reserve in a weak conference because he was on a good team with no other all-stars up to that point; why is that the whole basis of his supposed profile for excellence?

He is a bad mediocre-at-best defender, a decent scorer, and what I would consider to be a good passer at best. That is what matters; not a relatively arbitrary all-star designation. And comparing D’Angelo’s passing to Isiah’s passing is similarly ludicrous. He is not even Rubio-level as a passer (and obviously not as a defender), and no one ever thought Rubio deserved to be a high-contract player. His impact metrics are bad sorry, got caught up in the rhetoric, nothing outstanding, even though you would expect to see otherwise from someone with “generational” passing... so what is his case?

[yoyoboy]

I don't know if you guys saw, but in the interview on First Take, KD admitted that the altercation with Draymond where he basically said "we don't need you" was a factor in him leaving. Not exactly surprising I guess considering Durant's personality.

imagine losing KD because of Dray's big mouth

I think if KD is willing to admit that something like that was a factor at all, then it probably played a pretty large role. Having to constantly hear from fans and the media that GS doesn't need you and that you're soft and the team moved the ball better before you has gotta be tough. But then when one of the guys who's supposed to be firmly on your side - your own teammate who recruited you in the first place - says they don't need you...I bet that really affected him.

It's just crazy how quickly things can turn around. After the 2018 season I really thought we were in store for like 4-5 more years of Warriors domination. If you would've told me that LeBron would be on a team with a better chance for a title in 2020 than the Warriors, I would not have believed it.

[E-Balla]

^ we will agree to disagree on DLo, I don't see what you're seeing at all tbh.

Here's my issue with what you claim to be seeing and I'll ask it again, name a 23 year old PG all your criticisms apply to that wasn't a first ballot HOFer or league MVP?

Your expectations for a young PG are completely unrealistic. PGs, especially unathletic ones, don't jump out the gates great. Steve Nash didn't start until he was 24 and he averaged 8 ppg on 36% shooting while being one of the worst starters in the league. He made his first ASG at 27. Jason Kidd was 22 when he made his first ASG and 24 when he led his first team to the playoffs (and shot over 50 TS% for the first time). GP made his first ASG at 25 and at 24 averaged 13/5 (at 23 he averaged 9 ppg on 47 TS%). Mike Conley was seen as a draft bust until he was 23. John Stockton didn't start until he was 25. Tiny Archibald averaged 16/5 at the age of 22. Mark Price averaged 7 ppg on 49 TS% at 22 years old. Lenny Wilkins didn't have over a 16 PER before age 30. John Wall wasn't an All Star until he was 23. I'll stop for now because I think I've made my point but y'all act like DLo isn't the best PG in the league under the age of 25 outside of Simmons (who's shown no improvement in 2 years so far) and arguably Fox (who's playing worse than or just as bad as DLo so far and was worse last season).

[liamliam1234]

^ This is functionally impossible to settle with that frame in mind for at least a few years, so I suppose there is little more to be said. It is worthwhile if that is how he develops, and a waste if he does not. And I suppose I can see the argument that the gamble alone is worth it, even among people who think that profile is highly, highly unlikely.

[clyde21]

^ we will agree to disagree on DLo, I don't see what you're seeing at all tbh.

Here's my issue with what you claim to be seeing and I'll ask it again, name a 23 year old PG all your criticisms apply to that wasn't a first ballot HOFer or league MVP?

i don't understand your question...i already stated my issue with DLo the basketball player multiple times the last couple of pages, and those issues are compounded with the Warriors on top of it because he's a terrible fit here...what does have to do with the HOF or MVP PGs?

and I don't have unrealistic expectations for DLo, I just don't think he's that good, at all, I think he got an all-star nod because he was able to spam the one thing that makes him a functional player last year and got in as a substitute player in a historically weak conference for stars

if you disagree that's fine, but i just don't see what you see in him at all.

[clyde21]

I don't know if you guys saw, but in the interview on First Take, KD admitted that the altercation with Draymond where he basically said "we don't need you" was a factor in him leaving. Not exactly surprising I guess considering Durant's personality.

imagine losing KD because of Dray's big mouth

I think if KD is willing to admit that something like that was a factor at all, then it probably played a pretty large role. Having to constantly hear from fans and the media that GS doesn't need you and that you're soft and the team moved the ball better before you has gotta be tough. But then when one of the guys who's supposed to be firmly on your side - your own teammate who recruited you in the first place - says they don't need you...I bet that really affected him.

It's just crazy how quickly things can turn around. After the 2018 season I really thought we were in store for like 4-5 more years of Warriors domination. If you would've told me that LeBron would be on a team with a better chance for a title in 2020 than the Warriors, I would not have believed it.

it was for sure a factor, Dray called him a 'bitch' and said 'we don't need you' in front of everyone, in the middle of a game, that was massive shot at Durant's manhood and ego. i think there was a clip at the time of Durant literally saying 'that's why i'm outta here' immediately after that...it definitely stung and I don't think he ever got over it.

and yea, things change quickly in the NBA...dynasties almost never last as long as people think they will...

[E-Balla]

If that's the standard we're holding him to, yes DLo isn't as good as Magic, Derrick Rose, and Isiah Thomas.

I also do not think 2011 Derrick Rose would be worth a maximum contract in today’s league.

So you don't see an MVP leading a 62 win team at the age of 21 as worth a max contract? That's what you're saying here? What's with all the freezing cold takes right now?

You keep calling Russell a “generational” passer, based on what? He is worse than Young, Lonzo, and Simmons, and he probably projects as worse than Morant, so exactly how many guys qualify as “generational”?

Young isn't a better passer as great as he is and Morant isn't either. Both of those guys excel at passing on ball but aren't great off ball passers. DLo in college and at times last year showed the ability to make great reads off ball.

Simmons is iffy because his passing in transition is amazing but his halfcourt passing abilities are hampered by the fact no one needs to guard him. Lonzo is the only young player I'd say is undeniably a better passer than DLo at this time. Everyone else is behind him or arguable (not counting Jokic of course).

He contentiously made all-star as a reserve in a weak conference because he was on a good team with no other all-stars up to that point; why is that the whole basis of his supposed profile for excellence?

Slick way of saying, "because he led a team to the playoffs as a 22 year old," but yes, him being a successful winning player at the age of 22 with a meh roster does make it seem like he has very good potential for obvious reasons.

He is a bad mediocre-at-best defender, a decent scorer, and what I would consider to be a good passer at best. That is what matters; not a relatively arbitrary all-star designation. And comparing D’Angelo’s passing to Isiah’s passing is similarly ludicrous. He is not even Rubio-level as a passer (and obviously not as a defender), and no one ever though Rubio deserved to be a high-contract player. His impact metrics are bad sorry, got caught up in the rhetoric, nothing outstanding, even though you would expect to see otherwise from someone with “generational” passing... so what is his case?

He was 138th in RAPM. Ben Simmons, who you called a generational passer in this post was 136th. Trae Young who you mentioned as an example of a generational passer was 511th. Lonzo Ball was 397th. Look at some other stats like ORPM and the only PGs that are born in the 90s over him are Kyrie and Jamal Murray. Look at OBPM and the only players 25 or younger that were over DLo last year are Giannis, KAT, Jokic, and AD. Look at total BPM and he's 13th for players 25 and under and Simmons and Doncic are the only players his age or younger ranked over him.

Again, what the hell are you guys expecting from him? A top 25 player all time out the gates? He's the best in his age group at what he does and improves yearly, that seems pretty significant in evaluating him when his future potential is the topic.

[E-Balla]

^ we will agree to disagree on DLo, I don't see what you're seeing at all tbh.

Here's my issue with what you claim to be seeing and I'll ask it again, name a 23 year old PG all your criticisms apply to that wasn't a first ballot HOFer or league MVP?

i don't understand your question...i already stated my issue with DLo the basketball player multiple times the last couple of pages, and those issues are compounded with the Warriors on top of it because he's a terrible fit here...what does have to do with the HOF or MVP PGs?

and I don't have unrealistic expectations for DLo, I just don't think he's that good, at all, I think he got an all-star nod because he was able to spam the one thing that makes him a functional player last year and got in as a substitute player in a historically weak conference for stars

if you disagree that's fine, but i just don't see what you see in him at all.

And I'm asking you what PGs under 23 have you ever seen that are that good by your criteria and aren't first ballot HOFers? It's a pretty simple question when my criticism of you is that you have unrealistic expectations.

[liamliam1234]

Good responses.

If that's the standard we're holding him to, yes DLo isn't as good as Magic, Derrick Rose, and Isiah Thomas.

I also do not think 2011 Derrick Rose would be worth a maximum contract in today’s league.

So you don't see an MVP leading a 62 win team at the age of 21 as worth a max contract? That's what you're saying here? What's with all the freezing cold takes right now?

Well, again, I do not think he deserved MVP, and leading the team offensively is not exactly the same as leading the team. Notice how no one lost their minds over the 2015 Hawks? Oh, wait, Millsap and Horford both received max contracts, so maybe I just value maximums more than most.

If there are sixty maximum contracts in the league, I agree Russell probably deserves one.

You keep calling Russell a “generational” passer, based on what? He is worse than Young, Lonzo, and Simmons, and he probably projects as worse than Morant, so exactly how many guys qualify as “generational”?

Young isn't a better passer as great as he is and Morant isn't either. Both of those guys excel at passing on ball but aren't great off ball passers. DLo in college and at times last year showed the ability to make great reads off ball.

Simmons is iffy because his passing in transition is amazing but his halfcourt passing abilities are hampered by the fact no one needs to guard him. Lonzo is the only young player I'd say is undeniably a better passer than DLo at this time. Everyone else is behind him or arguable (not counting Jokic of course).

Good rebuttal, but why is superior off-ball passing an advantage over on-ball passing?

He contentiously made all-star as a reserve in a weak conference because he was on a good team with no other all-stars up to that point; why is that the whole basis of his supposed profile for excellence?

Slick way of saying, "because he led a team to the playoffs as a 22 year old," but yes, him being a successful winning player at the age of 22 with a meh roster does make it seem like he has very good potential for obvious reasons.[/quote]

No, not what I meant, but I see how my phrasing was unclear.

My point was that other players who deserved it more were already on teams with all-stars, and selections seem to consider that as a factor.

In terms of “leading” a team to the playoffs, again, a.) good team overall, b.) eastern conference, and c.) so have other whelming players at the bottom of the eastern playoff picture. 2016 Celtics come to mind. Judging by all-star, he was perceived as, what, the fifteenth best player in a weak conference? And that ignores other rapidly ascending players like Turner, Young, the unjustly robbed Siakam... But whatever, top twenty player in a weak conference is still like top fifty overall, so if that is your point, taken. Again, I (and presumably others) probably overvalue the scarcity of maximum contracts.

He was 138th in RAPM. Ben Simmons, who you called a generational passer in this post was 136th. Trae Young who you mentioned as an example of a generational passer was 511th. Lonzo Ball was 397th. Look at some other stats like ORPM and the only PGs that are born in the 90s over him are Kyrie and Jamal Murray. Look at OBPM and the only players 25 or younger that were over DLo last year are Giannis, KAT, Jokic, and AD.

Again, what the hell are you guys expecting from him? A top 25 player all time out the gates? He's the best in his age group at what he does and improves yearly, that seems pretty significant in evaluating him when his future potential is the topic.

Good counter, with the specification that I think most of those trailing players have far more room for growth than Russell. But I track your point better now. Good enough for it to be weakly deserved in isolation, and young enough for it to be worth for sheer speculative potential.

[clyde21]

Here's my issue with what you claim to be seeing and I'll ask it again, name a 23 year old PG all your criticisms apply to that wasn't a first ballot HOFer or league MVP?

i don't understand your question...i already stated my issue with DLo the basketball player multiple times the last couple of pages, and those issues are compounded with the Warriors on top of it because he's a terrible fit here...what does have to do with the HOF or MVP PGs?

and I don't have unrealistic expectations for DLo, I just don't think he's that good, at all, I think he got an all-star nod because he was able to spam the one thing that makes him a functional player last year and got in as a substitute player in a historically weak conference for stars

if you disagree that's fine, but i just don't see what you see in him at all.

And I'm asking you what PGs under 23 have you ever seen that are that good by your criteria and aren't first ballot HOFers? It's a pretty simple question when my criticism of you is that you have unrealistic expectations.

i haven't even stated what my expectations of him are, I just don't think he's really an all-star caliber player and, to make matters worse, he's an absolutely terrible fit in this offense.

[Peregrine01]

I for one am quite bummed out that Steph is gonna miss a lot of time. He’s gonna be 32 in a few months and he’s no spring chicken. We often forget that a player’s prime is so short lived and it sucks to see a player who many regard to be the most exciting to watch miss a sizeable portion of his prime.

[E-Balla]

i don't understand your question...i already stated my issue with DLo the basketball player multiple times the last couple of pages, and those issues are compounded with the Warriors on top of it because he's a terrible fit here...what does have to do with the HOF or MVP PGs?

and I don't have unrealistic expectations for DLo, I just don't think he's that good, at all, I think he got an all-star nod because he was able to spam the one thing that makes him a functional player last year and got in as a substitute player in a historically weak conference for stars

if you disagree that's fine, but i just don't see what you see in him at all.

And I'm asking you what PGs under 23 have you ever seen that are that good by your criteria and aren't first ballot HOFers? It's a pretty simple question when my criticism of you is that you have unrealistic expectations.

i haven't even stated what my expectations of him are, I just don't think he's really an all-star caliber player and, to make matters worse, he's an absolutely terrible fit in this offense.

I mean you're stating his contract and acquisition is bad so obviously you have some sort of expectations you don't think he's hitting and some reason to be saying what you're saying here.

[clyde21]

And I'm asking you what PGs under 23 have you ever seen that are that good by your criteria and aren't first ballot HOFers? It's a pretty simple question when my criticism of you is that you have unrealistic expectations.

i haven't even stated what my expectations of him are, I just don't think he's really an all-star caliber player and, to make matters worse, he's an absolutely terrible fit in this offense.

I mean you're stating his contract and acquisition is bad so obviously you have some sort of expectations you don't think he's hitting and some reason to be saying what you're saying here.

yes, paying DLo 30 mill a pop has the potential to be a devastating contract, if you disagree with that fine, but you do understand why someone else might not see it the same way right?