Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[nate33]

I agree with you but let's say Boston keeps struggling and they decide they really need to get Gordon gone. What do they need bench depth and cap flexibility. So Ian miles and ish get us to 30 mill Gordon's at 32 we are 4 mill under the tax. I do that all day long. If they want him gone and can't find a taker to take him with out payment. We have the short term useful ish bench players to get the job done. Something like that would peak my interest but yeah trading IT to a contender. Like the Lakers or another team in deep need of PG depth like the 76ers. For a pick or something would definitely be a good move and yeah. Bertans is only 27 he fits the young team enough to keep him another 3 years but we need to make that call now because if not, he's going to have trade value at the deadline and as cap strapped as we are, we can't miss out on any chance to improve, so just don't not trade him and let him walk.

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If that makes sense from our perspective (i.e. Hayward helps us more than Ish plus cap flexibility in 2020), then it doesn't make sense from Boston's perspective. Wouldn't they also prefer to have Hayward instead of Ish and cap flexibility? Particularly when that cap flexibility only gets than an MLE free agent in an offseason where free agents aren't very good.

Well it makes sense for us because we won't have cap flexibility any way. So getting rid of some guys to improve the team makes sense if it takes advantage of another teams situation. Kind of like what the blazers did with whiteside. If Boston is having issues and the locker room turns on him or he's not playing great or the determine they are better off without him. And they can't find another team to pay them something for him. Dumping him on us for free and getting a couple of vet back ups and a good chunk of cap relief out of it does make some sense for them. But that's a very specific situation but those situations do happen.


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I maintain that a Boston trade can't possibly make sense for both parties. Either Haywood is better than Ish plus cap flexibility, or he isn't. If Hayward is better, then Boston will keep him. If he isn't, then we don't want him.

[gambitx777]

Fair enough. Certainly, he looks to have been a bargain! Kudos to Tommy.

One more way to argue for trading Bertans is to suggest that the uncertainty attached to how Bertans turns out this season plus the uncertainty whether we are able to retain him are greater than the uncertainty of what we'd get out of, say 2 high R2 picks, thus increasing the attraction of the trade.

Anyway, per the above... I don't think he's likely to be traded any time soon!

I hear you on the uncertainty.

If I had the certainty of knowing I could extend him for, say, $11M a year, I'd happily do that and be done with it. I think Bertans locked into a 3 year $33M deal is better than what we are likely to get for him in any trade (whether that's a late 1st or a couple of 2nds).

But the possibility exists that someone will come along and offer outlandish money for him, and we let him go for nothing. With that in mind, surely it's better to trade him for one measly 2nd rounder than get nothing at all.

As I said before, I don't think a single 2nd round pick is enough to convince me to give up on the possibility of resigning Bertans to a team friendly deal. I do like Bertans and would like to keep him at a reasonable price. But if we got two 2nds or a late 1st, I'd probably pull the trigger because of the risk that we can't afford to keep Bertans in a frothy free agency market.

You also got to figure teams can get awfully desperate at the trade deadline you don't know what offers might come around for him or what situations might make some young players available.

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[gambitx777]

If that makes sense from our perspective (i.e. Hayward helps us more than Ish plus cap flexibility in 2020), then it doesn't make sense from Boston's perspective. Wouldn't they also prefer to have Hayward instead of Ish and cap flexibility? Particularly when that cap flexibility only gets than an MLE free agent in an offseason where free agents aren't very good.

Well it makes sense for us because we won't have cap flexibility any way. So getting rid of some guys to improve the team makes sense if it takes advantage of another teams situation. Kind of like what the blazers did with whiteside. If Boston is having issues and the locker room turns on him or he's not playing great or the determine they are better off without him. And they can't find another team to pay them something for him. Dumping him on us for free and getting a couple of vet back ups and a good chunk of cap relief out of it does make some sense for them. But that's a very specific situation but those situations do happen.


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I maintain that a Boston trade can't possibly make sense for both parties. Either Haywood is better than Ish plus cap flexibility, or he isn't. If Hayward is better, then Boston will keep him. If he isn't, then we don't want him.

I agree with you on that! If there aren't special circumstances and he's playing well and every one's getting along , this trade doesn't work for them.


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[pcbothwel]

...I really think Bertans is the type of role player that could be the difference between an contender and an actual champion.

Couldnt agree more. On a team with Wall, Brown, and Rui as key players... we need elite shooters to compliment them as its conceivable that some or all of them go cold for stretches and need shooting. Bertans is the PERFECT compliment to them.

TBH... I think I dont trade Bertans, even for the the 2 2nds (Obviously a top 20 pick though). I have a lot of faith in the this team and another top 10 pick can be a real wild card.

Trade IT at the deadline for a top 40 pick and Go for a nice three year run of:

Wall
Beal
Brown
Rui
Bryant

Bench: 2020 pick, Bertans, MLE, young guys (whoever stays afloat of Wagner, Bonga, Robinson, Admiral)

I'll take that squad

Wow.... I guess we must really have picked SA's pocket, huh? Acquiring for nothing whatsoever a guy whose actual worth is greater than 2 high R2 picks?

I assume this "run" is based on a) Rui Hachimura is a proven outstanding NBA starter, b) John Wall will soon be back & as good as ever, maybe better, c) Bertans proved in his first 3 seasons that he is a guy who can push his team to excellence (pay no attention to his having been given away for nothing), 4) we can sign Bertans & still have room to sign a MLE, & heaven only knows what counts as #s 5, 6, 7, etc. on this list of fond dreams.

Davis Bertans is a journeyman; he's good at one thing & one thing only, ok at a few others, & bad at some others as well. If he'd been what you think he is after 100 minutes this season, he'd be a Spur today. If, against all likelihood, he turns into all that, he'll be signed by someone for more than we can possibly afford for him.

Davis is a Wizard this year. That's it. I like him -- I've liked him for 8.5 years, since the run up to the '11 draft.

He's useful too. & the better he plays the more useful he is: not because of what he does for our record directly but because the better he is the more we get for him.

Above all, a team being based on Wall, Beal, Brown, Rui & Bryant is not automatically some kind of contender. Was a team based on Wall, Beal, Porter (when he was healthy & terrific) & Gortat any kind of contender?

- Bertans: Yes... Bertans at 7M is easily worth 2 high 2nds. I would trade him for a 1st, but nothing less.
And yes, we did "pick their pockets". Simply put, they thought Morris > Bertans and had to dump Bertans. Dont over think it.

- Cap: Wall, Beal, Full MLE, Bryant, Smith, 2020 pick, Rui, Brown Jr., Mo, Bonga, Admiral, and Robinson = 12 players at 115M. The Lux tax is 142M.... where are you seeing any issue whatsoever in retaining Bertans.

In fact, Id love for us to use Mahinmi + Thomas to take on salary into next year
- Team contention: beal has surpassed what Wall ever was previously, now they are more mature, and the team/culture appear to be in a better place.
Wall does not need to be “as good or Better” than he was before. He simply needs to let the game come to him and pick his spots. Exploiting mismatches, creating, pushing the pace, hitting spot of 3’s, and playing defense are all very doable for him so long as he steps back and lets Beal/Rui become the volume shooters/scorers.

I very much see 2020 Wall/Beal >= 2016 Wall/Beal that won 49 games… so then it comes down to supporting cast.
3-5:
Brown, Rui, Bryant > Otto, Kieff, and Gortat

Then you have the top 10 pick next year as the wild card along with the Full MLE

Again, I am not saying this IS a contender. But we have all 5 starters locked in for 3+ year deals, 3 of which are 22 or under.
We have 4 starters that could go off for 20 & 10 without anyone thinking twice, and the 5th guy (Brown Jr.) will run off numerous 15/5/5 nights in the near future.

Im not sure we could hope for much better.

[payitforward]

If I had the certainty of knowing I could extend him for, say, $11M a year, I'd happily do that and be done with it. ...

Absolutely! I mean... I find it hard to get used to the insane scale of salaries these days, but that seems a perfectly fine deal for him. Above all, that deal would not make him untradable if we decided to do that later.

...As I said before, I don't think a single 2nd round pick is enough to convince me to give up on the possibility of resigning Bertans to a team friendly deal. I do like Bertans and would like to keep him at a reasonable price. But if we got two 2nds or a late 1st, I'd probably pull the trigger because of the risk that we can't afford to keep Bertans in a frothy free agency market.

Right... that's the risk calculation Tommy would have to make. Reasonable people can disagree about where the decision point is. Viz. a single very high R2 pick in the double draft would be awfully appealing. Or, a single extremely high pick in the next draft...

Meanwhile, here's hoping he has a great season (though... that is sure to raise the price of re-signing him!).

[payitforward]

- Bertans: Yes... Bertans at 7M is easily worth 2 high 2nds. I would trade him for a 1st, but nothing less.
And yes, we did "pick their pockets". Simply put, they thought Morris > Bertans and had to dump Bertans. Dont over think it.

- Cap: Wall, Beal, Full MLE, Bryant, Smith, 2020 pick, Rui, Brown Jr., Mo, Bonga, Admiral, and Robinson = 12 players at 115M. The Lux tax is 142M.... where are you seeing any issue whatsoever in retaining Bertans.

In fact, Id love for us to use Mahinmi + Thomas to take on salary into next year
- Team contention: beal has surpassed what Wall ever was previously, now they are more mature, and the team/culture appear to be in a better place.
Wall does not need to be “as good or Better” than he was before. He simply needs to let the game come to him and pick his spots. Exploiting mismatches, creating, pushing the pace, hitting spot of 3’s, and playing defense are all very doable for him so long as he steps back and lets Beal/Rui become the volume shooters/scorers.

I very much see 2020 Wall/Beal >= 2016 Wall/Beal that won 49 games… so then it comes down to supporting cast.
3-5:
Brown, Rui, Bryant > Otto, Kieff, and Gortat

Then you have the top 10 pick next year as the wild card along with the Full MLE

Again, I am not saying this IS a contender. But we have all 5 starters locked in for 3+ year deals, 3 of which are 22 or under.
We have 4 starters that could go off for 20 & 10 without anyone thinking twice, and the 5th guy (Brown Jr.) will run off numerous 15/5/5 nights in the near future.

Im not sure we could hope for much better.

Just 4 quick points:

1. If the tax line goes up to $142m, you are certainly right that we would be unlikely to have trouble affording to re-sign Bertans. If you have knowledge that it'll rise to that, from $132.6m this year, that's helpful. Though, of course, that will also increase the market for him & increase the cost of signing him.

2. Get real -- you don't know what "they thought." You haven't got the faintest idea.

3. All the other assumptions I pointed to, even if in slightly different versions, are still there. About Wall, Rui, etc.

4. We likely can't "hope for better" -- I'm not interested in "hoping" for anything, & especially not next year, the beginning of your "nice 3 year run." I'm interested in a genuine effort to build a team that can contend for an NBA title. If you don't care about that, then sure, whatever....

[pcbothwel]

- Bertans: Yes... Bertans at 7M is easily worth 2 high 2nds. I would trade him for a 1st, but nothing less.
And yes, we did "pick their pockets". Simply put, they thought Morris > Bertans and had to dump Bertans. Dont over think it.

- Cap: Wall, Beal, Full MLE, Bryant, Smith, 2020 pick, Rui, Brown Jr., Mo, Bonga, Admiral, and Robinson = 12 players at 115M. The Lux tax is 142M.... where are you seeing any issue whatsoever in retaining Bertans.

In fact, Id love for us to use Mahinmi + Thomas to take on salary into next year
- Team contention: beal has surpassed what Wall ever was previously, now they are more mature, and the team/culture appear to be in a better place.
Wall does not need to be “as good or Better” than he was before. He simply needs to let the game come to him and pick his spots. Exploiting mismatches, creating, pushing the pace, hitting spot of 3’s, and playing defense are all very doable for him so long as he steps back and lets Beal/Rui become the volume shooters/scorers.

I very much see 2020 Wall/Beal >= 2016 Wall/Beal that won 49 games… so then it comes down to supporting cast.
3-5:
Brown, Rui, Bryant > Otto, Kieff, and Gortat

Then you have the top 10 pick next year as the wild card along with the Full MLE

Again, I am not saying this IS a contender. But we have all 5 starters locked in for 3+ year deals, 3 of which are 22 or under.
We have 4 starters that could go off for 20 & 10 without anyone thinking twice, and the 5th guy (Brown Jr.) will run off numerous 15/5/5 nights in the near future.

Im not sure we could hope for much better.

Just 4 quick points:

1. If the tax line goes up to $142m, you are certainly right that we would be unlikely to have trouble affording to re-sign Bertans. If you have knowledge that it'll rise to that, from $132.6m this year, that's helpful. Though, of course, that will also increase the market for him & increase the cost of signing him.

2. Get real -- you don't know what "they thought." You haven't got the faintest idea.

3. All the other assumptions I pointed to, even if in slightly different versions, are still there. About Wall, Rui, etc.

4. We likely can't "hope for better" -- I'm not interested in "hoping" for anything, & especially not next year, the beginning of your "nice 3 year run." I'm interested in a genuine effort to build a team that can contend for an NBA title. If you don't care about that, then sure, whatever....

What are you even talking about?!?
- Fact: The Spurs were capped out and needed wing depth. Their only avenue to outright add a players was the MLE. So, they traded Bertans for DeMarre Carroll and backed filled Bertans spot with Marcus Morris.
Meaning... They thought Morris >= Bertans and Carroll would be the added player.
The Morris signing fell apart and ruined that plan. Pop has openly mentioned how it back fired...

“It was more than difficult to lose Davis, Davis was a special player as we all know, and he was young and getting better and better. So, yeah, we hated losing him.”

- Contender: Your lack of ability to understand team building/grey area is astounding. I dont think of this as a 3 year run to the title. This is the beginning of a new team and new culture. This "Iteration" of the team is a 3 year building period that will focus on seeing what Rui, Brown, Bryant, and 2020 1st become while being led by a Prime Brad Beal.

We will be bad, but competitive this year (Great way to start a rebuild). Think of the Celtics team after their big 3.
Won 25 games in year 1, then 40, then 48.
I could see us winning around 30-35 games this year, and then 42-44 next year and be back in the playoffs. Going into that 3rd year then becomes quite interesting with our young guys seasoned and Beal still in his Prime (Wall declining, but still good).

Again, this all depends on what the young guys become, but Rui becomes Granger and Brown becomes a poor mans Iggy... things get interesting as we not only have "Talented" players, but we have hard working players that can outperform (Think Celtics 2 years ago, Bulls 5-7 years ago).

But sure, lets just move Beal...who in all likelihood would become the greatest player in this teams history with Elite personality/work ethic traits.
You seem to want to bottom out to get another Star, but dont even consider that Rui/Brown could be enough on the wing next to Beal...

[prime1time]

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

[Illmatic12]

Davis Bertans , by multiple metrics, is a criminally underrated role player who unlocks lineups that allow the Wiz to play modern basketball.



Offensively, he makes for a great frontcourt partner next to Rui, as Zach Lowe describes here:

8. Rui and Bertans!

The League Pass Rankings reverse jinx lives! The Wiz -- dead last in that annual column -- are kinda ... fun? They are especially so with Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans manning the forward spots. (Side note: This kind of look, pairing two tweeners who lean more toward the nominal power forward designation, seems to be en vogue this season.)

Hachimura is a whirling dervish who is somehow both chaotic and balanced at once. He can overpower wings in the post, and he looks comfy stepping into old-school long 2s. Those are unsexy shots, but they bode well for Hachimura stretching to 3-point range.

Bertans is one of the best shooters alive, and Scott Brooks is running nifty tandem set pieces for Bertans and Moritz Wagner. (I can't believe that sentence is a true thing.) This double pick has been killing teams, since both Bertans and Wagner are threats to chuck:

Overplay the Bertans curl and he'll bust it to the rim:

The Wizards have scored 126 points per 100 possessions (not a typo!) with Hachimura and Bertans on the floor, though their 159-158 game of NBA Jam against Houston on Wednesday inflated those numbers. (Warning: Don't look up the defensive figure; your mobile device might combust.)

Washington isn't good, but they're feisty and entertaining.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27969493/ten-nba-things-like-including-karl-anthony-towns-superstar-push

He also gives Washington a multiplier effect of having two of the best shooters in the league , in terms of gravity/floor spacing (which is especially important for when Wall returns given his shooting limitations)

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Davis also seems to be a great locker room guy, and his shotmaking ability on the court instills confidence in his teammates. This kind of chemistry is an ineffable quality that can’t be quantified (but whatever it is, it was clearly lacking on past Wizards teams):

Read on Twitter

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Lastly, at 26 years of age, Bertans career arc dovetails perfectly with Bradley Beal’s prime. If we had cap room to go out and pursue FAs next offseason, Bertans is one of the top young players we’d be looking at to add to our core. Fortunately through Sheppard’s maneuvering the Wizards were able to get this player’s Bird rights and have a whole season to pitch him on re-signing , hopefully to a 3-4yr deal on a cap friendly number. I don’t believe Sheppard has ANY intention of dealing Bertans at the deadline (unless we’re getting much better value than measley second round picks)


Some will recall Sheppard went out and signed that random Latvian stiff for our G-League team , which one could interpret as a way to help Bertans feel comfortable in DC by having one of his countrymen around. So we can see that the Wizards organization really value what Bertans brings to the culture they want to build , and the FA recruitment process has already begun:

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[Illmatic12]

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

Idk exactly what his market would be .. but I can tell you that Bertans is a significantly more valuable modern NBA player than Satoransky, a glorified scrub who half this board was up in arms about when the Wiz (wisely) chose not to overpay him.

I would argue that Bertans is closer in value to Otto Porter, so if we can use Bird rights to sign him for a similar contract to what Sato received - $10mil/yr - it would be an unmitigated steal.

Think that would still leave us with the MLE to add a veteran frontcourt player , preferably a tough defender & voracious rebounder with postseason experience - Millsap, Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Taj Gibson. Favors, Ibaka if they aren’t out of our price range. Add one of those players as a defensive presence to our developing core, plus a healthy Wall, 2020 draft pick and this team should be aiming for a top 4 seed —> ECSF in ‘20-21.

[gambitx777]

Troy brown he is like what 12 and he handles him self on the Cort and infront if the media like he's been doing this for 39 years

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[pcbothwel]

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

Idk exactly what his market would be .. but I can tell you that Bertans is a significantly more valuable modern NBA player than Satoransky, a glorified scrub who half this board was up in arms about when the Wiz (wisely) chose not to overpay him.

I would argue that Bertans is closer in value to Otto Porter, so if we can use Bird rights to sign him for a similar contract to what Sato received - $10mil/yr - it would be an unmitigated steal.

Think that would still leave us with the MLE to add a veteran frontcourt player , preferably a tough defender & voracious rebounder with postseason experience - Millsap, Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Taj Gibson. Favors, Ibaka if they aren’t out of our price range. Add one of those players as a defensive presence to our developing core, plus a healthy Wall, 2020 draft pick and this team should be aiming for a top 4 seed —> ECSF in ‘20-21.

We need a legit defensive bigman that can cause chaos and defend the perimeter... Nerlens Noel would be my pick and could even play alongside Bryant in extreme cases due his ability to guard 4's and Bryant's ability to shoot 3's.

Wall
Beal
Brown
Rui
Bryant

Bench: Bertans, Noel, 2020 pick (Anthony, Ball, Avdija, Hampton, Mannion, Maledon, etc.)
End of Bench: Robinson, Admiral, Wagner

[nate33]

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

Idk exactly what his market would be .. but I can tell you that Bertans is a significantly more valuable modern NBA player than Satoransky, a glorified scrub who half this board was up in arms about when the Wiz (wisely) chose not to overpay him.

I would argue that Bertans is closer in value to Otto Porter, so if we can use Bird rights to sign him for a similar contract to what Sato received - $10mil/yr - it would be an unmitigated steal.

Think that would still leave us with the MLE to add a veteran frontcourt player , preferably a tough defender & voracious rebounder with postseason experience - Millsap, Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Taj Gibson. Favors, Ibaka if they aren’t out of our price range. Add one of those players as a defensive presence to our developing core, plus a healthy Wall, 2020 draft pick and this team should be aiming for a top 4 seed —> ECSF in ‘20-21.

We need a legit defensive bigman that can cause chaos and defend the perimeter... Nerlens Noel would be my pick and could even play alongside Bryant in extreme cases due his ability to guard 4's and Bryant's ability to shoot 3's.

Wall
Beal
Brown
Rui
Bryant

Bench: Bertans, Noel, 2020 pick (Anthony, Ball, Avdija, Hampton, Mannion, Maledon, etc.)
End of Bench: Robinson, Admiral, Wagner

Noel would indeed fill a void, but I just don't see the team spending anything more than minimum salary vet money on a 3rd center. I think the tandem of Bryant and Wagner is the plan going forward - or at least that will be the plan unless they lose faith in Wagner.

[nate33]

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

Idk exactly what his market would be .. but I can tell you that Bertans is a significantly more valuable modern NBA player than Satoransky, a glorified scrub who half this board was up in arms about when the Wiz (wisely) chose not to overpay him.

I would argue that Bertans is closer in value to Otto Porter, so if we can use Bird rights to sign him for a similar contract to what Sato received - $10mil/yr - it would be an unmitigated steal.

Think that would still leave us with the MLE to add a veteran frontcourt player , preferably a tough defender & voracious rebounder with postseason experience - Millsap, Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Taj Gibson. Favors, Ibaka if they aren’t out of our price range. Add one of those players as a defensive presence to our developing core, plus a healthy Wall, 2020 draft pick and this team should be aiming for a top 4 seed —> ECSF in ‘20-21.

Good couple of posts on Bertans.

I agree with you that he is a very good fit on this team going forward. If he could be had for something just above MLE money, say, $12M a year or so, I'd rather have him than whatever late 1st/pair of 2nds we might get in a trade. But the concern is that he will cost substantially more than that. I'd rather have a late 1st than Bertans at, say, $18M a year.

Perhaps the best solution is to sign him to a descending contract. We will have the luxtax room next year to overpay him a bit in the short term. A descending contract would allow him to be more affordable down the line when Beal gets his big raise and the luxtax situation gets tight. A 3-year deal averaging $13M a year, but where we actually pay him $14.25M in Year 1, $13M in Year 2 and $11.75M in Year 3 could make sense.

[gambitx777]

I'm not saying he's ryan Anderson. Obviously there were a lot of off the court issues that lead to his down fall but let's avoid overpaying him none the less. He's a great glue guy and a great shooter, who's worth all of the 8-12 mill.lets just avoid getting into the 16-22 range.

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[payitforward]

I don't disagree with any of the points in any of the posts above. If we could extend Bertans right now & ink him for the $$ being discussed here, I'd be happy to do so. I'd be for doing it immediately.

But, we can't extend him now, as nate has mentioned. Which means that at the end of this year, Davis Bertans will be an unrestricted free agent. He'll be able to sign with any team. I.e. with whatever team offers him the most attractive deal.

Discussions of how good he is and/or of how well he fits with whatever we want to do & whoever else we have on the team are unrelated to the above.

Discussions about how oh no we shouldn't trade him do not take that into account either. But of course you can't discuss the question sensibly without taking that into account!

To put it simply & graphically, a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing is not worth a dollar: it's worth 80 cents & no more. If someone offers you 83 cents for a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing, you take the deal.

If you are thinking about Bertans without asking what the chances are that we lose him at the end of the season, then you are not thinking about Bertans in a useful way.

[pcbothwel]

I don't disagree with any of the points in any of the posts above. If we could extend Bertans right now & ink him for the $$ being discussed here, I'd be happy to do so. I'd be for doing it immediately.

But, we can't extend him now, as nate has mentioned. Which means that at the end of this year, Davis Bertans will be an unrestricted free agent. He'll be able to sign with any team. I.e. with whatever team offers him the most attractive deal.

Discussions of how good he is and/or of how well he fits with whatever we want to do & whoever else we have on the team are unrelated to the above.

Discussions about how oh no we shouldn't trade him do not take that into account either. But of course you can't discuss the question sensibly without taking that into account!

To put it simply & graphically, a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing is not worth a dollar: it's worth 80 cents & no more. If someone offers you 83 cents for a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing, you take the deal.

If you are thinking about Bertans without asking what the chances are that we lose him at the end of the season, then you are not thinking about Bertans in a useful way.

PIF... The issue is that we will be right above the cap, so we cant add good players through FA outside of the MLE. So having bird rights is a legit avenue for us.

I dont have much interest in doing that either. We should try to compete or sell off parts to compete after Beal/Wall contracts are up.
I think its worth the risk of letting him walk, plus it might be a good test for our organization and how players feel about the new structure and culture.

At the very least, TS might be able to swing a SnT and get us a TPE in the 12-15M range to use elsewhere.
Again, Im all about moving non-core pieces for picks (IT, Miles, etc.), but I also dont want to handicap this team if the young kids prove to be ready to support Wall & Beal.

IDK... Im usually on the "Trade the Vet" camp so I'm having a hard time disagreeing with you, but Bertans really is an important cog with his ability to shoot. It makes the game so much easier for Beal and Rui, and will for Wall too... I hate to throw that away for some early 2nd.

[Illmatic12]

Spoiler:

Not really interested in trading Bertans for a late first round pick. He's more valuable as a part of this team. What do people think a realistic contract is for him? 15 million a year? Just hard to imagine that any player we draft with that pick can come near to having the kind of impact Bertans can have.

Idk exactly what his market would be .. but I can tell you that Bertans is a significantly more valuable modern NBA player than Satoransky, a glorified scrub who half this board was up in arms about when the Wiz (wisely) chose not to overpay him.

I would argue that Bertans is closer in value to Otto Porter, so if we can use Bird rights to sign him for a similar contract to what Sato received - $10mil/yr - it would be an unmitigated steal.

Think that would still leave us with the MLE to add a veteran frontcourt player , preferably a tough defender & voracious rebounder with postseason experience - Millsap, Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Taj Gibson. Favors, Ibaka if they aren’t out of our price range. Add one of those players as a defensive presence to our developing core, plus a healthy Wall, 2020 draft pick and this team should be aiming for a top 4 seed —> ECSF in ‘20-21.

Good couple of posts on Bertans.

I agree with you that he is a very good fit on this team going forward. If he could be had for something just above MLE money, say, $12M a year or so, I'd rather have him than whatever late 1st/pair of 2nds we might get in a trade. But the concern is that he will cost substantially more than that. I'd rather have a late 1st than Bertans at, say, $18M a year.

Perhaps the best solution is to sign him to a descending contract. We will have the luxtax room next year to overpay him a bit in the short term. A descending contract would allow him to be more affordable down the line when Beal gets his big raise and the luxtax situation gets tight. A 3-year deal averaging $13M a year, but where we actually pay him $14.25M in Year 1, $13M in Year 2 and $11.75M in Year 3 could make sense.

Fortunately I think the Wiz are in a great position to retain Bertans because so many teams are keeping their powder dry for 2021 FA. His market will be artificially depressed since there isn’t a lot of available cap room for him next summer season.

Really like the idea of a descending contract as well.. it would also make him an ideal trade asset. Currently the Wiz don’t have many midsized contracts that can be used as filler to facilitate blockbuster trades. Using your example, if you combine Bertans+Bryant that matches the ~$20M salary slot of Myles Turner (for example). Add in Ish Smith’s $7M and you’re pretty close to Karl-Anthony Towns $29M in ‘20-21. Add in a $5M rookie scale contract - let’s say Anthony Edwards - throw in two future firsts and you have a KAT package eligible to be offered after Dec 15, 2020

Not saying you re-sign Bertans solely with the intention of trading him, but it’s important to create that flexibility so if a situation arises you can pounce.

[nate33]

I don't disagree with any of the points in any of the posts above. If we could extend Bertans right now & ink him for the $$ being discussed here, I'd be happy to do so. I'd be for doing it immediately.

But, we can't extend him now, as nate has mentioned. Which means that at the end of this year, Davis Bertans will be an unrestricted free agent. He'll be able to sign with any team. I.e. with whatever team offers him the most attractive deal.

Discussions of how good he is and/or of how well he fits with whatever we want to do & whoever else we have on the team are unrelated to the above.

Discussions about how oh no we shouldn't trade him do not take that into account either. But of course you can't discuss the question sensibly without taking that into account!

To put it simply & graphically, a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing is not worth a dollar: it's worth 80 cents & no more. If someone offers you 83 cents for a dollar you have a 20% chance of losing, you take the deal.

If you are thinking about Bertans without asking what the chances are that we lose him at the end of the season, then you are not thinking about Bertans in a useful way.

PIF... The issue is that we will be right above the cap, so we cant add good players through FA outside of the MLE. So having bird rights is a legit avenue for us.

I dont have much interest in doing that either. We should try to compete or sell off parts to compete after Beal/Wall contracts are up.
I think its worth the risk of letting him walk, plus it might be a good test for our organization and how players feel about the new structure and culture.

At the very least, TS might be able to swing a SnT and get us a TPE in the 12-15M range to use elsewhere.
Again, Im all about moving non-core pieces for picks (IT, Miles, etc.), but I also dont want to handicap this team if the young kids prove to be ready to support Wall & Beal.

IDK... Im usually on the "Trade the Vet" camp so I'm having a hard time disagreeing with you, but Bertans really is an important cog with his ability to shoot. It makes the game so much easier for Beal and Rui, and will for Wall too... I hate to throw that away for some early 2nd.

Another point of consideration is that Bertans is pretty sure to cost more than the MLE. With that the case, the only suitors in the discussion will be us (because we have Bird Rights) and a handful of under-the-cap teams. The best data I've seen is that these are the following teams under the cap:

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Atlanta has plenty of sharpshooting forwards. New York will be keeping their powder dry. Cleveland and Charlotte won't be looking for win now vets. So that really only leaves about 4 teams who would be realistic suitors at a price above the MLE.

[wall_glizzy]

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Atlanta has plenty of sharpshooting forwards. New York will be keeping their powder dry. Cleveland and Charlotte won't be looking for win now vets. So that really only leaves about 4 teams who would be realistic suitors at a price above the MLE.

This bodes pretty well for us, I think. Every deal offered will be made with an eye on the 2021 free agency class (and the players in it that the Zards will... not be in the hunt for), so our advantage may come from the ability/willingness to offer multiple years as much as from the raw annual number. From those four that you narrowed it down to, Nate, it's very hard for me to imagine the Raptors or Grizzlies shelling out a competitive offer to add to the frontcourts that they already have in place (although in the Raptors case that cap figure is generated in part from both Ibaka and Gasol expiring after this season). In any event, I don't think that Bertans fits the Raptors mold - he can shoot (obviously) but is still a shaky defender, and with the aforementioned expirings I have to imagine the Raptors will be prioritizing rim protection with any frontcourt (re-)signings.

The Trail Blazers, I think, would absolutely love him, but that cap space should be stretched somewhat thin as I don't think they'll have too many players under contract (and I could also see Hood, maaaaybe Hezonja, declining their player options and coming back on a higher salary). The Suns, I don't really know how to project, although it's certainly worth noting that they seem to be pretty high on Saric after accepting him as the sole compensation for dropping from what, #6 to #11 in this past draft? It's certainly not out of the question that he gets something of a raise after hitting RFA this summer.

All in all, if we keep giving Davis around 30 minutes a game to show out and seem to be on an overall upward trajectory, it's hard to imagine another team besting our offer (or at least what we can offer) in terms of combined years/annual salary/fit.