So Miami really just rebuilt their squad in 1 offseason without assets and over the cap?

[TheBonzaiEffect]

Duncan Robinson is better in the NBA than college.

[Sign5]

Some people just like to attach trash acquisitions onto the heat and regurgitate nonsense. Riley isn't messing up chemistry to trade for Mr 44m at 36 Paul. Cut that crap out already.

[Mbrahv0528]

Just guys auditioning for Chris Paul deal

How does that make any sense?

It doesn't.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

[Higgs Boston]

If they can get a versatile defensive big to play with adebayo or alone in certain matchups they could be really good, in that sense they are like the celtics.

[Chandan]

lol prime wade would be automatic finals and the title.

At first i was like :




then i am more like :

i missed goodboy!

[Clay Davis]

Armchair GMs gloss over the most important part of rebuilding: picking the right players.

You don't need cap, high picks etc. You need great scouts, a greater coach and a top GM. Heat have all 3

right players who have strong work ethic, but the most overlook part IMO is not just about finding players but how you NURTURE THEM, train them and work on their game.

Spo is a drill sergeant. He asks the most of his players regarding conditioning, much moreso than other coaches (I have this on good authority, having heard it second-hand from someone who's currently on their roster).

[NCHeels2008]

I'm really impressed, but it's a bit early for the parade

[jpengland]

There are some shooting percentages, especially from 3 and midrange which look set to regress, especially Nunn, Robinson and Leonard.

That said, they are a scrappy, hard-nosed team certainly way out playing my expectations.

Things probably normalise and they end up a mid seed and a tough playoff series.

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

Let's say you put prime Wade on this Heat team do they become title favorites? Better than a healthy Clippers squad?

not favorites, but in the east he could take them deep for sure

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

[Theocy]

Let's say you put prime Wade on this Heat team do they become title favorites? Better than a healthy Clippers squad?

not favorites, but in the east he could take them deep for sure

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

Probably.
But realistically speaking most of the top 5 teams in each conference are one prime legend away from being able to punk each other team in a title run

Celtics + prime Garnett is the one I can think of (homer but the impact there.. ) but also
Lakers + prime kobe
Raptors + Leonard (given how good their newly signed max player is)
Dallas + the prime German (the optimus prime)

Good thing there's one salary cap and one pinch of reality restricting this

It will be a good year I think with a few teams in the East playing tough.

[Air Apparent]

Let's say you put prime Wade on this Heat team do they become title favorites? Better than a healthy Clippers squad?

not favorites, but in the east he could take them deep for sure

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

wade is my fav player i'm fully aware of what he's capable of with even garbage rosters, but ive watched the nba long enough as well and this heat team isn't just one superstar away from a chip rn imo, ild love to be proven wrong, ild love if they win it all this year too actually ala the detroit pistons model, no superstars but solid top-to-bottom, led by jimmy

but we have to see how relevant these rookies who are big contributors right now offensively will be, especially once teams start adjusting to their games, they could literally be a non-factor in a 7game series once they are isolated

matchup wise would struggle with giannis and embidd or anthony davis/dwight, who is gonna guard them if bam is in foul trouble which he will be trying to contain them for 40 minutes every game since rotations are shorter and the backup option is kelly and or leonard..they are gonna get eaten alive and would match whatever big numbers wade/jimmy would be dropping...and jimmy butler cant contain lebron, he's a great defender but he has no chance, bron is too strong

so i stick with original assessment, i think theyld come up just short this year, agree to disagree

[Don Ford]

Not really surprising with Riley running the FO and Spo coaching.

[HotelVitale]

1) First, there is no universal draft board that you can just follow. That has to be developed. Most teams don't share there's with other teams. That's why scouts have jobs. As an example, most draft experts expected Bol Bol and KZ Okpala to be first round picks, and a lot expected them to land in the lottery.
2) Second, both Bam and Herro were considered reaches. Hell, if you could have seen the Heat board after both those players were drafted, you'd have thought neither player ever had the chance of playing an NBA game. People were screaming about Riley and how he needed to just retire already.
3) Finally, none of that takes into account the development program that Miami has clearly used to its advantage. Since Riley brought that system to Miami, the Heat have developed Isaac Austin, Bruce Bowen, Hassan Whiteside, Voshon Lenard, Udonis Haslem, etc., etc.. Now, Miami seems to be following it up with Derrick Jones Jr. and Kendrick Nunn, both players that other teams overlooked. I'm not saying no team is better at it than Miami, but very few are. And Riley's done this before. As was pointed out, Jon Starks and Anthony Mason were Riley developmental players, as well.
So no, not all scouting departments are created equal, not everyone follows the same draft board, and most teams aren't able to eschew draft picks and still acquire good young players. Miami's front office isn't perfect. Tyler Johnson's (a player who the Heat developed), James Johnson's, Dion Waiters', and in retrospect Hassan Whiteside's deal were not good moves. Riley got caught up in the second half of a season. That said, in his long career, that's one of the few blemishes...

Respectfully, I don't think you're quite getting the basic points I'm after. My main criticism of realgm draft logic is a simple cause/correlation issue: some teams end up with a string of good draft picks or prospects (correlation between a team and successful picks) and we attribute that to the team's skill (the success is caused by the team). I'm not saying that's totally not true but I think it's much much much less directly true than 90% of realgm posters think, and I think your posts are still sitting squarely on that assumption without examining it.

1) There obviously isn't one single universal draft board, but there's a loose consensus that teams generally stay within, and that consensus isn't ultimately that good at predicting eventual success. That consensus is derived from team scouts and trickeld down via website and general buzz etc, but it does end up being fairly solidified by draft time. As I said above, we almost never see a team go way out of the consensus and have it work out: if teams were genuinely better than others then we would fairly frequently see e.g. a team nab Gobert in the top 5 or Donovan Mitchell top 3, and teams that are supposedly great at identifying talent wouldn't make terrible picks so often too. My point is that that doesn't mean that FOs and scouts are incompetent, it's that there's greatly limited info about how a player will translate, and there's almost no info about how a player will develop. It's simply not possible to know, for example, which NCAA sharpshooter won't miss a beat and won't be bothered at all by NBA speed. (Also, the fact that Bol fell on EVERY board means that the consensus you as a casual fan thought was there wasn't--every FO agreed that Bol was too much of an injury risk to take in the 1st so the consensus was that he wasn't a 1st rd pick. And I don't get the point on Okpala, since as I recall he was generally thought of as a later 20s pick so he went completely within his expected range; going 3-5 picks later than mock drafts have you isn't you being drastically differently evaluated by teams, it just means a few details worked out in someone else's favor instead of yours.)

2) Herro wasn't a reach, this was just a few months ago and he was definitely talked about in the exact range in which he was picked. https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft. https://nbadraft.theringer.com/ The heat didn't have to pick him there and it wasn't a 100% obvious pick but that's my point--no team thinks Herro sucks and PJ Washington is amazing, they all know that both of those guys have a lot going for them and it was just parsing the details to figure out which one was a better bet. (Also every general fan base is going to love/hate a pick for mostly uninformed reasons, usually revolving around how famous a prospect was or how much one of their skills/abilites stands out; that has no bearing on an actual pick.)

3) So this is more of a devil's advocate answer, since I obviously think some teams have better developmental environments than others: What do you honestly think 'Pat Riley' does? Isn't it more likely that the Heat just happen by chance to have a bit more success with young players finding their groove than that one man, who controls high-level basketball operations and has much less interaction with players than dozens of coaches/staff do, somehow has the ability to impart basketball maturity into people? I could go through all the players you mentioned to break it down but, like I said, my real point is just to get people to stop assuming GMs or FOs are terrific because they win bets while those that lose them are idiots. We need more subtle ways of evaluating these things, this is all just an invitation to do that.

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

not favorites, but in the east he could take them deep for sure

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

Probably.
But realistically speaking most of the top 5 teams in each conference are one prime legend away from being able to punk each other team in a title run

Celtics + prime Garnett is the one I can think of (homer but the impact there.. ) but also
Lakers + prime kobe
Raptors + Leonard (given how good their newly signed max player is)
Dallas + the prime German (the optimus prime)

Good thing there's one salary cap and one pinch of reality restricting this

It will be a good year I think with a few teams in the East playing tough.

I agree except for the Raps + Leonard part (because of present versions of Gasol and Ibaka)

[MGB8]

They got Jimmy Butler for cheap / via FA.

They hit on three draft picks - Winslow (late blooming, but blooming nonetheless), Bam, and Herro.

They really hit on an undrafted in Nunn, and maybe also in Duncan Robinson.

Now you add in a solid NBA player Dragic, and some rotational players (Derrick Jones, Meyers Leonard, Olynyk, occassionally James Johnson)... and...

[Dr_Heat]

Let’s go Heat

[BBallFreak]

It's that next man up mentality that really seems to work so well.

No Winslow? No problem. Duncan Robinson steps in.

Going up against a small, more prototypical frontcourt? Let Meyers Leonard use size to his advantage and score 21 points.

JJ finally comes back after some conditioning issues? Drop in 17 points.

Through six games, Miami has had a different lead scorer every time. Jimmy Butler has not led the team yet.

It has been a very entertaining season so far...

[BBallFreak]

1) First, there is no universal draft board that you can just follow. That has to be developed. Most teams don't share there's with other teams. That's why scouts have jobs. As an example, most draft experts expected Bol Bol and KZ Okpala to be first round picks, and a lot expected them to land in the lottery.
2) Second, both Bam and Herro were considered reaches. Hell, if you could have seen the Heat board after both those players were drafted, you'd have thought neither player ever had the chance of playing an NBA game. People were screaming about Riley and how he needed to just retire already.
3) Finally, none of that takes into account the development program that Miami has clearly used to its advantage. Since Riley brought that system to Miami, the Heat have developed Isaac Austin, Bruce Bowen, Hassan Whiteside, Voshon Lenard, Udonis Haslem, etc., etc.. Now, Miami seems to be following it up with Derrick Jones Jr. and Kendrick Nunn, both players that other teams overlooked. I'm not saying no team is better at it than Miami, but very few are. And Riley's done this before. As was pointed out, Jon Starks and Anthony Mason were Riley developmental players, as well.
So no, not all scouting departments are created equal, not everyone follows the same draft board, and most teams aren't able to eschew draft picks and still acquire good young players. Miami's front office isn't perfect. Tyler Johnson's (a player who the Heat developed), James Johnson's, Dion Waiters', and in retrospect Hassan Whiteside's deal were not good moves. Riley got caught up in the second half of a season. That said, in his long career, that's one of the few blemishes...

Respectfully, I don't think you're quite getting the basic points I'm after. My main criticism of realgm draft logic is a simple cause/correlation issue: some teams end up with a string of good draft picks or prospects (correlation between a team and successful picks) and we attribute that to the team's skill (the success is caused by the team). I'm not saying that's totally not true but I think it's much much much less directly true than 90% of realgm posters think, and I think your posts are still sitting squarely on that assumption without examining it.

1) There obviously isn't one single universal draft board, but there's a loose consensus that teams generally stay within, and that consensus isn't ultimately that good at predicting eventual success. That consensus is derived from team scouts and trickeld down via website and general buzz etc, but it does end up being fairly solidified by draft time. As I said above, we almost never see a team go way out of the consensus and have it work out: if teams were genuinely better than others then we would fairly frequently see e.g. a team nab Gobert in the top 5 or Donovan Mitchell top 3, and teams that are supposedly great at identifying talent wouldn't make terrible picks so often too. My point is that that doesn't mean that FOs and scouts are incompetent, it's that there's greatly limited info about how a player will translate, and there's almost no info about how a player will develop. It's simply not possible to know, for example, which NCAA sharpshooter won't miss a beat and won't be bothered at all by NBA speed. (Also, the fact that Bol fell on EVERY board means that the consensus you as a casual fan thought was there wasn't--every FO agreed that Bol was too much of an injury risk to take in the 1st so the consensus was that he wasn't a 1st rd pick. And I don't get the point on Okpala, since as I recall he was generally thought of as a later 20s pick so he went completely within his expected range; going 3-5 picks later than mock drafts have you isn't you being drastically differently evaluated by teams, it just means a few details worked out in someone else's favor instead of yours.)

2) Herro wasn't a reach, this was just a few months ago and he was definitely talked about in the exact range in which he was picked. https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft. https://nbadraft.theringer.com/ The heat didn't have to pick him there and it wasn't a 100% obvious pick but that's my point--no team thinks Herro sucks and PJ Washington is amazing, they all know that both of those guys have a lot going for them and it was just parsing the details to figure out which one was a better bet. (Also every general fan base is going to love/hate a pick for mostly uninformed reasons, usually revolving around how famous a prospect was or how much one of their skills/abilites stands out; that has no bearing on an actual pick.)

3) So this is more of a devil's advocate answer, since I obviously think some teams have better developmental environments than others: What do you honestly think 'Pat Riley' does? Isn't it more likely that the Heat just happen by chance to have a bit more success with young players finding their groove than that one man, who controls high-level basketball operations and has much less interaction with players than dozens of coaches/staff do, somehow has the ability to impart basketball maturity into people? I could go through all the players you mentioned to break it down but, like I said, my real point is just to get people to stop assuming GMs or FOs are terrific because they win bets while those that lose them are idiots. We need more subtle ways of evaluating these things, this is all just an invitation to do that.

So it's absolutely your contention that Miami has no clue what they're looking for with these undrafted guys? That they're not actually paying attention to what they're doing?

They don't look for work ethic? Hunger? Skill level? They have no clue about potential?

They've just lucked into everyone they've ever developed and the only reason they have a reputation for being good is luck?

Is that really what you're trying to say?

[KingDavid]

not favorites, but in the east he could take them deep for sure

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

wade is my fav player i'm fully aware of what he's capable of with even garbage rosters, but ive watched the nba long enough as well and this heat team isn't just one superstar away from a chip rn imo, ild love to be proven wrong, ild love if they win it all this year too actually ala the detroit pistons model, no superstars but solid top-to-bottom, led by jimmy

but we have to see how relevant these rookies who are big contributors right now offensively will be, especially once teams start adjusting to their games, they could literally be a non-factor in a 7game series once they are isolated

matchup wise would struggle with giannis and embidd or anthony davis/dwight, who is gonna guard them if bam is in foul trouble which he will be trying to contain them for 40 minutes every game since rotations are shorter and the backup option is kelly and or leonard..they are gonna get eaten alive and would match whatever big numbers wade/jimmy would be dropping...and jimmy butler cant contain lebron, he's a great defender but he has no chance, bron is too strong

so i stick with original assessment, i think theyld come up just short this year, agree to disagree

Lol you think prime Wade wouldn't get those guys in foul trouble? He was Harden before Harden. I would love to see those bigs try to guard prime Wade on a p&r with a rim runner like Bam. It would be a free throw parade in today's NBA.

Why do think his haters called him d-whistle?

Giannis? We just beat them in Milwaukee. Without JB. Bucks aren't as good as last season.

[Air Apparent]

!???
Prime Wade + this roster would do a gentleman's sweep on every team not named the Lakers and take 6 six games to beat LA. That's it. If you've watched Wade and the Heat from 2004-2009 discounting injuries, there's no way you would say otherwise.

wade is my fav player i'm fully aware of what he's capable of with even garbage rosters, but ive watched the nba long enough as well and this heat team isn't just one superstar away from a chip rn imo, ild love to be proven wrong, ild love if they win it all this year too actually ala the detroit pistons model, no superstars but solid top-to-bottom, led by jimmy

but we have to see how relevant these rookies who are big contributors right now offensively will be, especially once teams start adjusting to their games, they could literally be a non-factor in a 7game series once they are isolated

matchup wise would struggle with giannis and embidd or anthony davis/dwight, who is gonna guard them if bam is in foul trouble which he will be trying to contain them for 40 minutes every game since rotations are shorter and the backup option is kelly and or leonard..they are gonna get eaten alive and would match whatever big numbers wade/jimmy would be dropping...and jimmy butler cant contain lebron, he's a great defender but he has no chance, bron is too strong

so i stick with original assessment, i think theyld come up just short this year, agree to disagree

Lol you think prime Wade wouldn't get those guys in foul trouble? He was Harden before Harden. I would love to see those bigs try to guard prime Wade on a p&r with a rim runner like Bam. It would be a free throw parade in today's NBA.

Why do think his haters called him d-whistle?

Giannis? We just beat them in Milwaukee. Without JB. Bucks aren't as good as last season.

the issue is not wade, he would avg 35-36 probably, it's the rest of the team, again would go deep in the east like i said, possibly finals but would come up just short against the lakers due to matchups and inexperience from the rest of the team