Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It?

[twix2500]

Justise is a role player. Need is not universal against every team. People tend to forget, bball has a lot to do with matchup. Winslow would help a lot against teams with wing duos. Even thou the Heat played well last night. It was helped a lot by Westbrook hurting Houston. If Harden and Westbrook were hot, Winslow would of been vital.

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To your point, styles make fights.

Justice can defend almost any wing on D. His defensive prowess will always have a place on the team.

Yes but you can't let an inefficient player shoot so much. He's been highly inefficient his whole career and his FGA per 36 just keeps climbing. I'm fine with him shooting open 3s, but he's climbed up to 9.1 2pt fga per 36 last year and this year it's at 12.2. There are things that can make Justise more efficient but it'll probably be a huge hit to his ego to admit it and do something about it.

Oh, I have a history on here saying that about Justise and others. I talked a lot in here about if you are inefficient lower your attempts and work your way on up by learning what shots are efficeint for you. I talked a lot about him learning a post up game, moving off the ball and getting easy back door points and running on fastbreaks. But many want him to be a James Harden Light, or a 3D guy, Im not saying it is impossible for him to become a 3D guy . But history has show his long distance shot is not natural for him. It is going to come and go and it may not be wise for him to live out there. When he is feeling it, let it fly, but his game should not be based out there. But at the very least Winslow has to be able to make wide open shots. It was very discerning, i believe it was his last game where he air balled a wide ope 3 at the end of a quarter or half.

However, I agreed to give the kobewade route and give him 15 games, to show how his game has evolved.

[AirP.]

God, enough of this over examination of Winslow already. He's 15pts/8.5rebs/6ast/1.3stls/0.8blks in his 4 games and one of those was a 2pt game. Since he's been out the last two game with lower back pain maybe you could just give him the benefit of the doubt and see if his shooting changes once his back recovers?

Worst part of it is Winslow is obviously the type of guy that lets the talk about his game effect his confidence but fans are just relentless in letting him have it at every opportunity they get. Stop being counter productive to this teams success and support the guys we have. Also the only thing Wiggins and Winslow have in common is they have both played with Jimmy Butler but that's where the comparisons end.

Ok... Let's use the numbers that matter and not rounded up to look better(plus toss in TO since it can negate some of the good shooting or assists, this is where ORTG comes into play. 14.8 pts/8.5 rebs/5.8 ast/3.5 TOs/1.3stls/0.8blks in his 4 games. Good numbers but hey, let's look a little closer because efficiency matters...14.8 pts on 15.3 FGA with a TS% of .431 with an ORTG of 91 are you going to argue that those numbers are good or shall you turn a blind eye to them. Hopefully he shoots better the rest of the season, if he gets anywhere near just league average in efficiency he'd be a considered a very good player and depending on the other numbers, possibly a great player, but scoring efficiency is HUGE in today's NBA, just because you're getting assists doesn't mean you're an huge asset to the offense, you have to have decent scoring efficiency also.

I'm sorry I see his strengths and weaknesses of players and unlike fans of a franchise, not just ignoring a key part of basketball. It's just odd how you go from fan base to fan base and a certain portion of each fan base just ignore certain young player weaknesses because they've attached so much hope to them for the franchise to succeed. It's why I bring up A.Wiggins so much with inefficiency, Minnesota fans(I'm sure the owner was the same way, he's kept that franchise down for so long) would keep point towards his scoring numbers yet would care very little about how many shots it took him to get that.

If Winslow were just a backup or this team were just a middle of the road team, eh, no big deal, but at this point he's one of the main players on this team which has the ability to make some moves, strengthen its rotation and actually have some chance of going extremely deep in the playoffs. It all boils down to defense to drop the other team's offensive efficiency, your own offense efficiency and the ability to have players rise to the occasion to hit big shots and Miami has all of that, but they can get better.

[AirP.]

Oh, I have a history on here saying that about Justise and others. I talked a lot in here about if you are inefficient lower your attempts and work your way on up by learning what shots are efficeint for you. I talked a lot about him learning a post up game, moving off the ball and getting easy back door points and running on fastbreaks. But many want him to be a James Harden Light, or a 3D guy, Im not saying it is impossible for him to become a 3D guy . But history has show his long distance shot is not natural for him. It is going to come and go and it may not be wise for him to live out there. When he is feeling it, let it fly, but his game should not be based out there. But at the very least Winslow has to be able to make wide open shots. It was very discerning, i believe it was his last game where he air balled a wide ope 3 at the end of a quarter or half.

However, I agreed to give the kobewade route and give him 15 games, to show how his game has evolved.

The big problem is that to have Winslow start at PG means you're taking the ball out of the hands of Butler more who is a way better player and also overall putting a much less efficient player on the court with the starters. If you want long term success, things like this matter. Do I need to add in that Winslow is great defensively? I just see him as a fringe starter, great roleplayer.

[Bishop45]

Mans is trying to compare Winslow and Wiggins to make a point, all you need to know

[AirP.]

Mans is trying to compare Winslow and Wiggins to make a point, all you need to know

Yes, on their offensive efficiency, you trying to make it broder by not mentioning that to discredit what I'm saying lets me know where you're coming from.

BTW I'll say it again, Winslow is a MUCH better overall player than Wiggins. Efficiency wise... not so much.

[Dr_Heat]

[BBallFreak]

Oh, I have a history on here saying that about Justise and others. I talked a lot in here about if you are inefficient lower your attempts and work your way on up by learning what shots are efficeint for you. I talked a lot about him learning a post up game, moving off the ball and getting easy back door points and running on fastbreaks. But many want him to be a James Harden Light, or a 3D guy, Im not saying it is impossible for him to become a 3D guy . But history has show his long distance shot is not natural for him. It is going to come and go and it may not be wise for him to live out there. When he is feeling it, let it fly, but his game should not be based out there. But at the very least Winslow has to be able to make wide open shots. It was very discerning, i believe it was his last game where he air balled a wide ope 3 at the end of a quarter or half.

However, I agreed to give the kobewade route and give him 15 games, to show how his game has evolved.

The big problem is that to have Winslow start at PG means you're taking the ball out of the hands of Butler more who is a way better player and also overall putting a much less efficient player on the court with the starters. If you want long term success, things like this matter. Do I need to add in that Winslow is great defensively? I just see him as a fringe starter, great roleplayer.

I don't see anything wrong with them splitting those choirs, especially if it helps Winslow be more efficient. Look, we're talking about 3 games where he stank from the floor and one where he was amazing. This is a small sample size. You want to see who he is? You're much better off looking at what he did last year. That's a much better indicator.

And if you want to trash him based on last year, go right ahead.

But this year? You better be prepared to look at Jimmy Butler, too. Dude isn't averaging 15 a game and isn't shooting 40% from the floor. We're paying the max for those stats. Yet I don't see you trashing him.

Maybe it's because you give him the benefit of the doubt based on last year? His career? Maybe you're expecting him to get his numbers where we all expect them to be because history tells us he will?

Maybe give Justise the same benefit of the doubt here. He's off to a slow start. So what? He'll get there...

[twix2500]

Oh, I have a history on here saying that about Justise and others. I talked a lot in here about if you are inefficient lower your attempts and work your way on up by learning what shots are efficeint for you. I talked a lot about him learning a post up game, moving off the ball and getting easy back door points and running on fastbreaks. But many want him to be a James Harden Light, or a 3D guy, Im not saying it is impossible for him to become a 3D guy . But history has show his long distance shot is not natural for him. It is going to come and go and it may not be wise for him to live out there. When he is feeling it, let it fly, but his game should not be based out there. But at the very least Winslow has to be able to make wide open shots. It was very discerning, i believe it was his last game where he air balled a wide ope 3 at the end of a quarter or half.

However, I agreed to give the kobewade route and give him 15 games, to show how his game has evolved.

The big problem is that to have Winslow start at PG means you're taking the ball out of the hands of Butler more who is a way better player and also overall putting a much less efficient player on the court with the starters. If you want long term success, things like this matter. Do I need to add in that Winslow is great defensively? I just see him as a fringe starter, great roleplayer.

Being point guard is not an excuse for him not to be able to expand his game. You see how effective it is to to Duncan and Meyers efficiency when they start cutting back door. When Winslow had his outburst the first game, it had a lot to do with him cutting, running hard on fastbreaks and posting up. This is the same for JJ, who is just a bigger version of Winslow. Neither should be taking most of their shots as primary options, but mixed in secondary or tertiary scoring in their game.

[Bishop45]

Mans is trying to compare Winslow and Wiggins to make a point, all you need to know

Yes, on their offensive efficiency, you trying to make it broder by not mentioning that to discredit what I'm saying lets me know where you're coming from.

BTW I'll say it again, Winslow is a MUCH better overall player than Wiggins. Efficiency wise... not so much.

You're using narrow efficiency stats and small sample sizes to stand on a soap box and claim Winslow doesn't deserve to start and gets coddled by the fanbase. You also used Wiggins as an example because Wiggins is a bad basketball player that you claim that some fans make excuses for(Although I haven't met many/any). Unless you're saying Winslow is a bad basketball player, the comparison is useless, which leads me to believe that you're making a bad faith argument and bad faith assessment by claiming that Winslow's efficiency is being 'overlooked'

Just say that you don't think Winslow should be playing as much or have as big of a role because he's not good, don't try to make this about 'helping his efficiency'. That's obviously crap. He played his most efficient season last year, while both taking the most shots he ever has over the span of a season and playing Point, but we're going to focus on the whole 4 games he played this yr...

[twix2500]

Oh, I have a history on here saying that about Justise and others. I talked a lot in here about if you are inefficient lower your attempts and work your way on up by learning what shots are efficeint for you. I talked a lot about him learning a post up game, moving off the ball and getting easy back door points and running on fastbreaks. But many want him to be a James Harden Light, or a 3D guy, Im not saying it is impossible for him to become a 3D guy . But history has show his long distance shot is not natural for him. It is going to come and go and it may not be wise for him to live out there. When he is feeling it, let it fly, but his game should not be based out there. But at the very least Winslow has to be able to make wide open shots. It was very discerning, i believe it was his last game where he air balled a wide ope 3 at the end of a quarter or half.

However, I agreed to give the kobewade route and give him 15 games, to show how his game has evolved.

The big problem is that to have Winslow start at PG means you're taking the ball out of the hands of Butler more who is a way better player and also overall putting a much less efficient player on the court with the starters. If you want long term success, things like this matter. Do I need to add in that Winslow is great defensively? I just see him as a fringe starter, great roleplayer.

I don't see anything wrong with them splitting those choirs, especially if it helps Winslow be more efficient. Look, we're talking about 3 games where he stank from the floor and one where he was amazing. This is a small sample size. You want to see who he is? You're much better off looking at what he did last year. That's a much better indicator.

And if you want to trash him based on last year, go right ahead.

But this year? You better be prepared to look at Jimmy Butler, too. Dude isn't averaging 15 a game and isn't shooting 40% from the floor. We're paying the max for those stats. Yet I don't see you trashing him.

Maybe it's because you give him the benefit of the doubt based on last year? His career? Maybe you're expecting him to get his numbers where we all expect them to be because history tells us he will?

Maybe give Justise the same benefit of the doubt here. He's off to a slow start. So what? He'll get there...

In all fairness, Winslow is showing the same struggles he dealt with his entire career. It can be reasonably expected these struggles will reappear throughout his career. But hope that he will have more games towards his peak play of last year. I understand AirP concerns, his concerns are not unreasonable. But the Heat needs his ability and size and experience. Winslow defense on Middleton was vital in beating Milwaukee. I think some may gotten carried away with the Houston win a bit. Winslow wasnt needed because Westbrook beat himself (reason why I did not want the Heat to trade for him). The league is gonna adjust to Nunn and Herro when scouting reports are developed. Winslow as a veteran player is gonna be needed.

[MadD23]

Duncan Robinson is shooting 55%fg and 50% 3pts at the moment, if he continues to play that way understanding those numbers will drop to something more like 47%fg and 40% 3pts, I don't see how you can keep him off the starting lineup with Nunn and Butler. Spacing is extremely important in today's NBA, without it you have to grind yourself to death each game to try to accumulate some wins and in the playoffs every team is playing as hard as you. That's when reality hits you in the face.

I understand Defense is very important, but not when your offense as a player is so inefficient and you are sharing the floor with another player like Bam who relies on cuts, hustle and fast break points to get most of his offense. That's 2 players on the floor at the same time allowing defenders to close the gaps making it tougher for players like Butler and Dunn to score. With Duncan Robinson players have to stay honest or pay the price. We can't say the same about Winslow at this point.

[DayofMourning]

Bench stats if anyone is interested:

https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=PTS&dir=-1

[AirP.]

The big problem is that to have Winslow start at PG means you're taking the ball out of the hands of Butler more who is a way better player and also overall putting a much less efficient player on the court with the starters. If you want long term success, things like this matter. Do I need to add in that Winslow is great defensively? I just see him as a fringe starter, great roleplayer.

I don't see anything wrong with them splitting those choirs, especially if it helps Winslow be more efficient. Look, we're talking about 3 games where he stank from the floor and one where he was amazing. This is a small sample size. You want to see who he is? You're much better off looking at what he did last year. That's a much better indicator.

And if you want to trash him based on last year, go right ahead.

I'm "trashing" him by saying his offensive efficiency is bad? There's data saying it's a fact that it seems fans are fine with ignoring. He's not had 1 year where his offensive efficiency has even been average. You can see that in his TS% or his ORTG for each year in his career. Also I am only talking about his offensive efficiency being bad, everything else is great, it's just that offensive efficiency is so important in this current era. All he has to do is play more towards his strengths on offense or just take less shots to help mitigate hurting his and his team's offensive efficiency.

But this year? You better be prepared to look at Jimmy Butler, too. Dude isn't averaging 15 a game and isn't shooting 40% from the floor. We're paying the max for those stats. Yet I don't see you trashing him.

I am interested in the perception of Butler if he doesn't look for his own shot and get those "max contract stats", especially if the team continues to win a good clip. Also, I've already seen Butler do this in Minnesota, so he in fact has a history of doing this.

Butler is a different kind a person, does what he feels is needed to win, his first 12 games in Minnesota(he missed 2 early games sick), 15.3pts, 5 reb, 4.8 ast while shooting .397 FG%, with scoring games of 4 and 6 points(both easy wins), the Timberwolves were 9-3 at that point but he got tired of the work ethics and griping of numbers from 1 or 2 younger players then announced Jimmy Buckets coming back, when that stretch started he averaged 24.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.0 asts for 44 games till he tore his meniscus.

Butler did the same thing in Philly in the playoffs, Philly's first playoff game they were getting hammered, nobody could score so Butler took over(scored 36) and almost brought them back from being 20 behind in the first half then took a back seat(averaged 10.8 ppg the rest of the series) to his teammates the rest of the 1st round because they had enough scoring. 2nd round they needed him and he almost got them past the eventual champs where he averaged 22 pts, 7 reb and 5.6 ast.

Maybe it's because you give him the benefit of the doubt based on last year? His career? Maybe you're expecting him to get his numbers where we all expect them to be because history tells us he will?

Maybe give Justise the same benefit of the doubt here. He's off to a slow start. So what? He'll get there...

I just don't get this, you're honestly telling me to give Winslow the same benefit of a doubt as Butler while knowing that Butler has had many years of being efficient offensively(has done this in the past with a new team) and Winslow has never had an efficient year offensively in the NBA. What is the reasoning that Justise deserves the same benefit of a doubt, it's not based on history of performance over a year.

Once again, outside Winslow's' offensive efficiency, he has a great game, but we're at a point in time where offensive efficiency is really important if you shoot a decent amount of times and he's putting up 15 FGA a game.

[BFRESH44]

Lmao I believe it was kobewade11 who said it, but it's hilarious and so true. You dudes really do seek out a bogeyman within the team, despite it playing great to start the year. Amazing.

[Kobewade11]

Read on Twitter

[Flash4thewin]

He’s played 3 or 4 games. Its a new unit. Stop looking for bogeymen, root for our guys to be their best selves and enjoy the damn ride. I’ll never understand the constant need to witch hunt players from this fanbase, particulary the guys that show up, represent the team well and do their jobs.

I'm looking at history repeating itself for a player. I heard the same arguments from Minnesota fans with Wiggins because at the time Minnesota was the 3rd seed with Butler (this is great, look how good we're doign), but just looking at the statistics you could see how much Wiggins was hold them back EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE HAVING SUCCESS AT THE TIME, luckily for Miami Justice is on a solid contract.

God, enough of this over examination of Winslow already. He's 15pts/8.5rebs/6ast/1.3stls/0.8blks in his 4 games and one of those was a 2pt game. Since he's been out the last two game with lower back pain maybe you could just give him the benefit of the doubt and see if his shooting changes once his back recovers?

Worst part of it is Winslow is obviously the type of guy that lets the talk about his game effect his confidence but fans are just relentless in letting him have it at every opportunity they get. Stop being counter productive to this teams success and support the guys we have. Also the only thing Wiggins and Winslow have in common is they have both played with Jimmy Butler but that's where the comparisons end.

Im not sure if you are trying to defend him or troll him. You are basically implying Winslow is so mentally weak we need to be nice to him, and also make him the starting point guard for the success of the team? Winslow is not a bad player but unless he develops a consistent jumper and 3pt shot, maybe its not best to start him. I feel Winslow is best as jack of all trades type player from the bench and depending on the situation, finish the game on the court if we need a defensive stop.

[Dr_Heat]

Lmao I believe it was kobewade11 who said it, but it's hilarious and so true. You dudes really do seek out a bogeyman within the team, despite it playing great to start the year. Amazing.

No one is ever 100% happy. I get it , people want to continue to improve the team but sometimes it’s better just to sit back and enjoy all the booty in Miami and leave it to Godfather Riley

[Kobewade11]

As the Heat watches the impressive emergence of several young players - led by Bam Adebayo, Justise Winslow, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro - here’s even more good news:

Because of cap rules and prudent planning by the Heat front office, Miami -- barring a China-related significant drop in the salary cap -- should be able to keep nearly all of its emerging young players longterm and still have the cap space to add a max free agent in the summer of 2021, when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Victor Oladipo, Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul George are eligible for free agency.

Besides those aforementioned four, the other young players who might be part of the Heat’s future are Derrick Jones Jr., Duncan Robinson, KZ Ozpala and two-way player Chris Silva. And the Heat’s first-round pick next June will give Miami a group of nine young players, provided that pick isn’t used in a trade on draft night or after.

Of those nine, the one who would appear most at risk of needing to be sacrificed to maintain max space in 2021 would be Jones Jr., an impending unrestricted free agent. Miami is not in position to add commitments for 2021-22 beyond deals barely above the league minimum, and Jones should be able to command more than that next summer.

Could any of this be affected if the preseason issue with China leads to a significant reduction in NBA revenue? It could. But remember that first-year max salaries are based on a percentage of the cap. So max salaries will diminish if the cap diminishes. And a league executive said there has been no indication from the league that the cap will fall short of 2021 projections.

But as things stand currently, the Heat should be able to keep nearly all of its young core longterm and have the cap space to add a star to join Butler and the kids.

And credit smart planning for that; keep in mind that if Nunn had signed with the Heat last May instead of on the final day of the season, he wouldn’t have had full Bird Rights and re-signing him might have been challenging if he continues on this current arc.

And make no mistake: Unless the Heat can trade for a star in the next two years, the plan is to continue to preserve that max cap space for 2021 so the Heat can at least make a run at Antetokounmpo and others.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article236624423.html

[Bishop45]

Might be a good time to fish DJJ out there to a needy contender with future picks

[AirP.]

Mans is trying to compare Winslow and Wiggins to make a point, all you need to know

Yes, on their offensive efficiency, you trying to make it broder by not mentioning that to discredit what I'm saying lets me know where you're coming from.

BTW I'll say it again, Winslow is a MUCH better overall player than Wiggins. Efficiency wise... not so much.

You're using narrow efficiency stats and small sample sizes to stand on a soap box and claim Winslow doesn't deserve to start and gets coddled by the fanbase. You also used Wiggins as an example because Wiggins is a bad basketball player that you claim that some fans make excuses for(Although I haven't met many/any). Unless you're saying Winslow is a bad basketball player, the comparison is useless, which leads me to believe that you're making a bad faith argument and bad faith assessment by claiming that Winslow's efficiency is being 'overlooked'

The small sample size is this year, but it's also apart of a large sample size of his career. Once again he's never had an average or better offensive efficiency year.

If his efficiency isn't being overlooked what's the problem, that's the only thing I've talked about negative about Winslow.

If you want to see Wiggins excuses, there's a Timberwolves forum with a few years worth of excuses for Wiggins, with a few of us questioning his motor and his love for long 2s. I really enjoyed the Wiggins is better than Butler arguments the summer of 2017.

Just say that you don't think Winslow should be playing as much or have as big of a role because he's not good, don't try to make this about 'helping his efficiency'. That's obviously crap. He played his most efficient season last year, while both taking the most shots he ever has over the span of a season and playing Point, but we're going to focus on the whole 4 games he played this yr...

I think I've said it a few times(evan today) that Winslow's fit with low efficiency isn't good with the starters, there's enough playmaking with the starters where a more efficient scorer (who can defend) is probably a better fit. I get how everyone loved hearing how he worked on his 3pt shot but bad free throw shooters usually don't have long term success as outside shooters.

If Winslow can get assists with his playmaking, take less shots and normally just open shots that could lift his efficiency, the team's efficiency which equates to more points per game for the Heat.