OT Bears 2019/20 season and beyond

[bullsnewdynasty]

career QBRs (prior to today):

52.5 fitz
51.8 dalton
50.0 trubisky

LMAO, I wonder why you didn't use this season's stats. Probably because Trubisky is sitting in dead last out of 32 starting QB's?

first of all, i can't take anyone seriously who uses 'LMAO'. secondly, i used career numbers because it's a much bigger sample that controls better for the production of, you know, the other 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball. finally, i wonder why you didn't mention that dalton is also bottom of the barrel this season. hmmm...

And according to your stat, Fitz is just as good as Aaron Rodgers this year, so you should be thrilled about him.

no, because, you see...sample size. which is why i used the damn career numbers!

Dalton's 2 starting tackles and #1 all-pro receiver have been out the entire season. What excuse does Mitch have?

[MeloRoseNoah]

LMAO, I wonder why you didn't use this season's stats. Probably because Trubisky is sitting in dead last out of 32 starting QB's?

first of all, i can't take anyone seriously who uses 'LMAO'. secondly, i used career numbers because it's a much bigger sample that controls better for the production of, you know, the other 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball. finally, i wonder why you didn't mention that dalton is also bottom of the barrel this season. hmmm...

And according to your stat, Fitz is just as good as Aaron Rodgers this year, so you should be thrilled about him.

no, because, you see...sample size. which is why i used the damn career numbers!

Dalton's 2 starting tackles and #1 all-pro receiver have been out the entire season. What excuse does Mitch have?

His IG girlfriend is bad, and kills his legs at home.

[dice]

LMAO, I wonder why you didn't use this season's stats. Probably because Trubisky is sitting in dead last out of 32 starting QB's?

first of all, i can't take anyone seriously who uses 'LMAO'. secondly, i used career numbers because it's a much bigger sample that controls better for the production of, you know, the other 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball. finally, i wonder why you didn't mention that dalton is also bottom of the barrel this season. hmmm...

And according to your stat, Fitz is just as good as Aaron Rodgers this year, so you should be thrilled about him.

no, because, you see...sample size. which is why i used the damn career numbers!

Dalton's 2 starting tackles and #1 all-pro receiver have been out the entire season. What excuse does Mitch have?

poor coaching, poor run game, no all-pro receiver to begin with, injury

i posted dalton's mediocre numbers for his CAREER. what excuse does he have for his career? how about fitzpatrick (who is on his 8th team and will be 38 next season)?

i'm not claiming that trubisky is good. i'm claiming that the other two aren't necessarily significant improvements. bringing in a mediocre guy for a year doesn't make much sense. especially since you'd then have trubisky as the priciest backup QB in the league

[bullsnewdynasty]

first of all, i can't take anyone seriously who uses 'LMAO'. secondly, i used career numbers because it's a much bigger sample that controls better for the production of, you know, the other 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball. finally, i wonder why you didn't mention that dalton is also bottom of the barrel this season. hmmm...


no, because, you see...sample size. which is why i used the damn career numbers!

Dalton's 2 starting tackles and #1 all-pro receiver have been out the entire season. What excuse does Mitch have?

poor coaching, poor run game, no all-pro receiver to begin with, injury

i posted dalton's mediocre numbers for his CAREER. what excuse does he have for his career? how about fitzpatrick (who is on his 8th team and will be 38 next season)?

i'm not claiming that trubisky is good. i'm claiming that the other two aren't necessarily significant improvements. bringing in a mediocre guy for a year doesn't make much sense. especially since you'd then have trubisky as the priciest backup QB in the league

It actually would have made total sense to bring in a veteran QB. They just refused to make a move because it would be them admitting they made a historic **** up drafting Mitch.

[Bandit King]

Only chance bears have is drafting a qb with their 2 2nd picks and letting the kid fight it out with trubsucky.

[dice]

Dalton's 2 starting tackles and #1 all-pro receiver have been out the entire season. What excuse does Mitch have?

poor coaching, poor run game, no all-pro receiver to begin with, injury

i posted dalton's mediocre numbers for his CAREER. what excuse does he have for his career? how about fitzpatrick (who is on his 8th team and will be 38 next season)?

i'm not claiming that trubisky is good. i'm claiming that the other two aren't necessarily significant improvements. bringing in a mediocre guy for a year doesn't make much sense. especially since you'd then have trubisky as the priciest backup QB in the league

It actually would have made total sense to bring in a veteran QB. They just refused to make a move because it would be them admitting they made a historic **** up drafting Mitch.

when should they have brought in the vet?

and there's nothing historic about mitch trubisky other than maybe a guy who started one year of college football getting 29 million bucks

[dougthonus]

It actually would have made total sense to bring in a veteran QB. They just refused to make a move because it would be them admitting they made a historic **** up drafting Mitch.

It's hard for people to admit mistakes because they are, at the end of the day, people. They have personal relationships. They probably like Mitch and want him to succeed. They also fall victim to sunk cost theory and feel like we put this much effort in, we should keep putting more in to see if it turns around.

Also, there are times where guys HAVE turned it around. You don't want to be the guy that looked stupid for drafting someone then looked even stupider for having him succeed somewhere else and giving up too early either.

In the end, regardless of what you do, the best thing is always to make the best decision going forward. The past (costs, efforts, etc) are only relevant if they predict the future, but you can't get them back so they no longer matter. What matters now is how to get the best performance in the future.

If you think Mitch is about to turn some corner you stick with him. If you think he has a better chance of turning the corner and using 30 million on the roster in other areas than you do in getting a 30m QB and not using it on other areas then you might still do that, but you have to make the best decision you can regardless of what it looks like going backwards.

Your future narrative is what is important not the past. The best way to avoid a decision on Mitch looking dumb is to make the next decision correctly. If you draft a good QB in the 2nd round and Mitch goes away, no one cares that you screwed up on Mitch, if you sign Drew Brees for 1 season and win a superbowl no one cares you screwed up on Mitch, if you double down and Mitch is great, no one cares about this season.

You can't cover up mistakes, you can only succeed enough that they aren't relevant anymore.

[dougthonus]

Not a football expert in terms of cap, but glancing at the Bears cap, and it looks like they have very limited flexibility next year and certainly can't bring in a franchise QB.

[dougthonus]

When the Bears traded for Mack, I thought it was a mistake. Their 12 wins last year made me think that maybe it wasn't and this team was ready to take a jump. If Trubisky were the real deal they probably would have been, in that sense, it might have been a good gamble to make betting on your talent and creating a window.

However, it looks it has turned out to be a poor bet. The Bears look like they will have to go through a rebuild again soon and would have been better off stock piling talent than having Mack except for the personal joy we got out of that 12 win season last year which was pretty satisfying.

[dice]

When the Bears traded for Mack, I thought it was a mistake. Their 12 wins last year made me think that maybe it wasn't and this team was ready to take a jump. If Trubisky were the real deal they probably would have been, in that sense, it might have been a good gamble to make betting on your talent and creating a window.

However, it looks it has turned out to be a poor bet. The Bears look like they will have to go through a rebuild again soon and would have been better off stock piling talent than having Mack except for the personal joy we got out of that 12 win season last year which was pretty satisfying.

...and which probably would have been nearly as satisfying without mack

[MeloRoseNoah]

When the Bears traded for Mack, I thought it was a mistake. Their 12 wins last year made me think that maybe it wasn't and this team was ready to take a jump. If Trubisky were the real deal they probably would have been, in that sense, it might have been a good gamble to make betting on your talent and creating a window.

However, it looks it has turned out to be a poor bet. The Bears look like they will have to go through a rebuild again soon and would have been better off stock piling talent than having Mack except for the personal joy we got out of that 12 win season last year which was pretty satisfying.

Absolutely. It looks like they will have to do a complete rebuilt at this point. You don't get anywhere in this league without a QB. Ryan Pace is done drafting QBs for this franchise. He and Naggy will have a last chance to turn around this team over this offseason with their limited cap space and draft capitals. Both of them are most likely dead men walking, unless they strike gold with a QB in FA.

[MeloRoseNoah]

Not a football expert in terms of cap, but glancing at the Bears cap, and it looks like they have very limited flexibility next year and certainly can't bring in a franchise QB.

I did the number but they will have close to 37 mil in cap space. Cut/release Kyle Long, Chase Daniel Prince, G Taylor, L Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, and M Davis.

That's enough for a QB FA experience like Mariota and one high end FA. Afterward, they need to shore up their weaknesses through the draft and UDFA.

[bullsnewdynasty]

It actually would have made total sense to bring in a veteran QB. They just refused to make a move because it would be them admitting they made a historic **** up drafting Mitch.

It's hard for people to admit mistakes because they are, at the end of the day, people. They have personal relationships. They probably like Mitch and want him to succeed. They also fall victim to sunk cost theory and feel like we put this much effort in, we should keep putting more in to see if it turns around.

Also, there are times where guys HAVE turned it around. You don't want to be the guy that looked stupid for drafting someone then looked even stupider for having him succeed somewhere else and giving up too early either.

In the end, regardless of what you do, the best thing is always to make the best decision going forward. The past (costs, efforts, etc) are only relevant if they predict the future, but you can't get them back so they no longer matter. What matters now is how to get the best performance in the future.

If you think Mitch is about to turn some corner you stick with him. If you think he has a better chance of turning the corner and using 30 million on the roster in other areas than you do in getting a 30m QB and not using it on other areas then you might still do that, but you have to make the best decision you can regardless of what it looks like going backwards.

Your future narrative is what is important not the past. The best way to avoid a decision on Mitch looking dumb is to make the next decision correctly. If you draft a good QB in the 2nd round and Mitch goes away, no one cares that you screwed up on Mitch, if you sign Drew Brees for 1 season and win a superbowl no one cares you screwed up on Mitch, if you double down and Mitch is great, no one cares about this season.

You can't cover up mistakes, you can only succeed enough that they aren't relevant anymore.

Ultimately ownership is going to have to do something. Like you said, Pace is tied to Mitch because that was his move. I really don't see a scenario where Mitch goes and Pace stays. As a talent evaluator that is one giant misfire that I don't think you can recover from.

People were making excuses for Mitch's development up until this year because he only started 1 year in college. After 3 seasons in the NFL I think you can make a proper evaluation on whether a guy is a starting quarterback. And I think it's painfully obvious what the verdict is.

[dougthonus]

Not a football expert in terms of cap, but glancing at the Bears cap, and it looks like they have very limited flexibility next year and certainly can't bring in a franchise QB.

I did the number but they will have close to 37 mil in cap space. Cut/release Kyle Long, Chase Daniel Prince, G Taylor, L Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, and M Davis.

That's enough for a QB FA experience like Mariota and one high end FA. Afterward, they need to shore up their weaknesses through the draft and UDFA.

Okay, but if you cut all those guys, then you are replacing them with all 1m players?

[MeloRoseNoah]

Not a football expert in terms of cap, but glancing at the Bears cap, and it looks like they have very limited flexibility next year and certainly can't bring in a franchise QB.

I did the number but they will have close to 37 mil in cap space. Cut/release Kyle Long, Chase Daniel Prince, G Taylor, L Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, and M Davis.

That's enough for a QB FA experience like Mariota and one high end FA. Afterward, they need to shore up their weaknesses through the draft and UDFA.

Okay, but if you cut all those guys, then you are replacing them with all 1m players?

Mariota for 2 years 20 mil/yr with an opt out for a new extension after 1 year
Extensions for some of our panned out players for another 10 - 17 mil
Our cap space is scheduled to blow up to 66-70 mil after next season

They will need to address other holes by the draft or free agents. Nagy and Pace built this predicament. They will have to dig themselves out of it. Otherwise, we will trade Mack, and other players for draft picks to build up draft capitals for the new GM and coach in 2022.

The Trubisky bust really messes everything up. But, you don't win anything in this league without a QB. QBs nowadays make immediate contribution in Yr 1 and round up into stud status by Yr 3. No patience for bums that can't make the cut, and Trubisky belongs on this list.

Things are settling up nicely for the new GM and coach if Pace and Nagy can't turn this boat around. But, management should not give Pace another opportunity to draft a QB with first round capital or waste draft picks to draft a QB in the first round. He has his chances, and his QB evaluation sucks ass.

In fact, after this debacle, any scout that vouches for Trubisky needs to be fired on the spot.

[dougthonus]

Ultimately ownership is going to have to do something. Like you said, Pace is tied to Mitch because that was his move. I really don't see a scenario where Mitch goes and Pace stays. As a talent evaluator that is one giant misfire that I don't think you can recover from.

That may be true, but if so, that's a poor ownership decision. If you fire anyone who makes a bad decision then they will always be looking to double down on their decisions rather than making the best decision forward. If Pace did a nice job but whiffed on QB once and isn't allowed to pursue the best decision because it will get him fired then that you are really limiting the chance for anyone to succeed ever in his role.

People were making excuses for Mitch's development up until this year because he only started 1 year in college. After 3 seasons in the NFL I think you can make a proper evaluation on whether a guy is a starting quarterback. And I think it's painfully obvious what the verdict is.

I agree on the verdict on Mitch.

[MeloRoseNoah]

The best decision forward def doesn’t involved Ryan Pace trading away draft capitals to draft another QB bust. He needs to strike gold in the FA qb market and shore up the offense with his current draft capital. If he does a good job, he will have fresh 2021 draft capitals to get his guys.

[MeloRoseNoah]

Ultimately ownership is going to have to do something. Like you said, Pace is tied to Mitch because that was his move. I really don't see a scenario where Mitch goes and Pace stays. As a talent evaluator that is one giant misfire that I don't think you can recover from.

That may be true, but if so, that's a poor ownership decision. If you fire anyone who makes a bad decision then they will always be looking to double down on their decisions rather than making the best decision forward. If Pace did a nice job but whiffed on QB once and isn't allowed to pursue the best decision because it will get him fired then that you are really limiting the chance for anyone to succeed ever in his role.

People were making excuses for Mitch's development up until this year because he only started 1 year in college. After 3 seasons in the NFL I think you can make a proper evaluation on whether a guy is a starting quarterback. And I think it's painfully obvious what the verdict is.

I agree on the verdict on Mitch.

Besides trubisky turning into a stud. The next best outcome is for Trubisky to completely flame out leaving no doubt for an extension or some chances of another season oppportunity. Trubisky has busted so hard that moving away from him and transitioning into the next phase will be a seamless process.

[dice]

Not a football expert in terms of cap, but glancing at the Bears cap, and it looks like they have very limited flexibility next year and certainly can't bring in a franchise QB.

I did the number but they will have close to 37 mil in cap space. Cut/release Kyle Long, Chase Daniel Prince, G Taylor, L Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, and M Davis.

That's enough for a QB FA experience like Mariota and one high end FA. Afterward, they need to shore up their weaknesses through the draft and UDFA.

assuming long/prince/gabriel/floyd/patterson/davis all cut:

26.6 mack
17.5 fuller
15.0 robinson
11.8 hicks
10.3 leno
10.8 goldman
9.2 trubisky
8.6 burton
8.3 massie
7.4 whitehair
6.1 skrine

3.0 5 draft picks
1.9 shaheen/daniels/o'donnell
1.7 braunecker
1.5 long*/miller
1.0 prince*/davis*/gabriel*/patterson*
0.9 jackson/montgomery/cohen
0.8 iyiegbuniwe/riley
0.7 nichols/toliver/wims/pinero
0.6 shelley/anderson/woods
0.5 simmons

*pro-rated signing bonus

that's 158.4 mil w/ projected cap of 216.8. 58.4 mil to spend on 14 roster spots w/ notable gaps at QB, starting WR, starting G and starting LB

[dice]

Ultimately ownership is going to have to do something. Like you said, Pace is tied to Mitch because that was his move. I really don't see a scenario where Mitch goes and Pace stays. As a talent evaluator that is one giant misfire that I don't think you can recover from.

That may be true, but if so, that's a poor ownership decision. If you fire anyone who makes a bad decision then they will always be looking to double down on their decisions rather than making the best decision forward. If Pace did a nice job but whiffed on QB once and isn't allowed to pursue the best decision because it will get him fired then that you are really limiting the chance for anyone to succeed ever in his role.

People were making excuses for Mitch's development up until this year because he only started 1 year in college. After 3 seasons in the NFL I think you can make a proper evaluation on whether a guy is a starting quarterback. And I think it's painfully obvious what the verdict is.

I agree on the verdict on Mitch.

Besides trubisky turning into a stud. The next best outcome is for Trubisky to completely flame out leaving no doubt for an extension or some chances of another season oppportunity. Trubisky has busted so hard that moving away from him and transitioning into the next phase will be a seamless process.

mariota is an interesting comparison. also a #2 pick, marginally better than trubisky through 4 years and had his $20+ mil option picked up for this season

bortles was a #3 pick, was only good in his 4th season and also had his $20 mil option picked up

i think the risk is trubisky starting and having a good season next year