Game 8: Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns -Thur, Nov 7th @ 7pm

[Revived]

I didn’t expect Cam Johnson to look as timid as he’s been so far especially since he’s the oldest rookie of the draft class (and even older than Booker).

Usually the older prospects have a lower ceiling but are able to be somewhat productive pretty quickly.

Hope confidence isn’t the issue for him.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Well, one problem with McD was that he ignored advanced stats and was a traditional scout. Didn't work so well. Of course Ayton won't register that well on a scale for the season, and in general, bigs will be rated higher, but he certainly was near the bottom of Cs last year, despite perhaps being one of the top half defenders on our sorry team. There is a chance he's near middle of the pack this year among Cs, hopefully.

Maybe my memory doesn't serve me well, but I remember advanced stats being the main reason McD traded for Knight specifically.

I don't use advanced stats and probably never will. My eyes show me Ayton did well vs players like Giannis, Lebron, Jokic, so even now I would prefer he defends those players rather than the other two. IMO advanced stats don't show you anything about a player's future development, but also how that player would have matched against a starter/better quality player in the past. Hope that makes sense.

No, McD worked more like it sounds you do. He was a video guy with Boston and came up through scouting by watching players. Most of the really successful teams today look at all the #s.

Seems you rely strictly on 1 on 1 defense as opposed to looking at team defense and everyone's movement while on defense on the floor. Someone like Baynes is night and day to how Ayton operated last year in this respect.

I wonder what Cotton Fitzsimmons would have to say about statistics, now that they come in an "advanced" variety.

So many arguments I've had with you centered around stats over the years. You once argued with tremendous confidence that TJ would almost certainly never be a good 3FG shooter because players don't become better shooters over time - an argument you backed up with stats. Seemed absurd to me and I figured we must not have our sample sizes right or be affected by some missing factors or biases and yet I could not prove it. But ultimately, yeah, TJ turned out to be a great shooter. I was among the minority who was not much surprised, though I did not toot that horn, for I hate the sound of myself tooting.

We had the exact same debate about Marcus Smart in the summer of 2018, with the same result, as he too dramatically improved his 3FG% last year. (lightning striking twice, or...?) Also much better (IIRC for I have not cheked in a while) were Smart's advanced defense stats, which were pretty dramatically improved relative to the 2017-18 season. Was Smart not a good defender before last season? Why have I always had the impression that he was a great defender?

Context is tricky. Remember, when discussing Smart in 2018, how every Celtic except for Marcus had improved their 3FG% substantially over prior years in 2017-18? You'd be silly to think that any particular Celtic had actually improved that much as a shooter if you were the GM of another team, instead of concluding that the team's success resulted in better looks for their players. Just like the players on a bad defensive team may not be as bad individually as their stats (regular or advanced!) might suggest.

I think it's more reasonable to believe that Ayton will be a better defender than Dario and Frank when he comes back this season. Do you really think it's just a coincidence that DA's career high blocks game was his first game of this season, playing under a coach who appears to have improved this whole team's level of defense? Is anyone on this team not looking like a better defender than they have historically been?? Watching DA's 4 games under Monty (including preseason) gave me the impression that DA will be much more willing to commit to the ballhandler on drives this season, resulting in a lot more block opportunities. He ended up half-defending two players a lot last season because he never had help behind him (though he got a little help near the end of the season with Dragan and Oubre). In other words, it appears to me that our defensive schemes will put Ayton in a much better position to take advantage of his "natural" gifts when he returns.

I'd be willing to bet an avatar that he improves his BPG this season by 50%...... or if it would make you more comfortable, that he improves to a similarly impressive degree in DFG%, BLK%, DRTG or DWS. Whatever you want.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I didn’t expect Cam Johnson to look as timid out there as he’s been so far especially since he’s the oldest rookie of the draft class (and even older than Booker).

Usually the older prospects have a lower ceiling but are able to be somewhat productive pretty quickly.

Hope confidence isn’t the issue for him.

It looks to me like Cam lacks physical confidence, which undermines his confidence in his shot. I haven't reached any conclusions about him yet (I'm always slow to give up on our high draft picks). I agree with you that the early signs are not positive.

Why does he wear a shirt under his jersey? What's the deal there?

[bwgood77]

Maybe my memory doesn't serve me well, but I remember advanced stats being the main reason McD traded for Knight specifically.

I don't use advanced stats and probably never will. My eyes show me Ayton did well vs players like Giannis, Lebron, Jokic, so even now I would prefer he defends those players rather than the other two. IMO advanced stats don't show you anything about a player's future development, but also how that player would have matched against a starter/better quality player in the past. Hope that makes sense.

No, McD worked more like it sounds you do. He was a video guy with Boston and came up through scouting by watching players. Most of the really successful teams today look at all the #s.

Seems you rely strictly on 1 on 1 defense as opposed to looking at team defense and everyone's movement while on defense on the floor. Someone like Baynes is night and day to how Ayton operated last year in this respect.

I wonder what Cotton Fitzsimmons would have to say about statistics, now that they come in an "advanced" variety.

So many arguments I've had with you centered around stats over the years. You once argued with tremendous confidence that TJ would almost certainly never be a good 3FG shooter because players don't become better shooters over time - an argument you backed up with stats. Seemed absurd to me and I figured we must not have our sample sizes right or be affected by some missing factors or biases and yet I could not prove it. But ultimately, yeah, TJ turned out to be a great shooter. I was among the minority who was not much surprised, though I did not toot that horn, for I hate the sound of myself tooting.

We had the exact same debate about Marcus Smart in the summer of 2018, with the same result, as he too dramatically improved his 3FG% last year. (lightning striking twice, or...?) Also much better (IIRC for I have not cheked in a while) were Smart's advanced defense stats, which were pretty dramatically improved relative to the 2017-18 season. Was Smart not a good defender before last season? Why have I always had the impression that he was a great defender?

Context is tricky. Remember, when discussing Smart in 2018, how every Celtic except for Marcus had improved their 3FG% substantially over prior years in 2017-18? You'd be silly to think that any particular Celtic had actually improved that much as a shooter if you were the GM of another team, instead of concluding that the team's success resulted in better looks for their players. Just like the players on a bad defensive team may not be as bad individually as their stats (regular or advanced!) might suggest.

I think it's more reasonable to believe that Ayton will be a better defender than Dario and Frank when he comes back this season. Do you really think it's just a coincidence that DA's career high blocks game was his first game of this season, playing under a coach who appears to have improved this whole team's level of defense? Is anyone on this team not looking like a better defender than they have historically been?? Watching DA's 4 games under Monty (including preseason) gave me the impression that DA will be much more willing to commit to the ballhandler on drives this season, resulting in a lot more block opportunities. He ended up half-defending two players a lot last season because he never had help behind him (though he got a little help near the end of the season with Dragan and Oubre). In other words, it appears to me that our defensive schemes will put Ayton in a much better position to take advantage of his "natural" gifts when he returns.

I'd be willing to bet an avatar that he improves his BPG this season by 50%...... or if it would make you more comfortable, that he improves to a similarly impressive degree in DFG%, BLK%, DRTG or DWS. Whatever you want.

I don't know what you are arguing exactly because I expect drastic improvement from him this year and he sure as hell better be a better defender than Frank and Dario. I certainly expect that. I also expect his blocks to go up, possibly even more than you do.

I think that argument regarding Warren was probably with someone else, unless you can link me to it, because I have somewhat of a photographic memory and do not remember arguing that. I do remember not wanting to go after Smart though, or any bad shooter (felt a bit the same about Rubio) last year because we were already the worst 3 pt shooting team in the league. I certainly know guys can improve their shooting and see it all the time, but I didn't want to add a guy in his case that didn't have that skill to a team already severely lacking it in hopes it would improve.

I don't know how this got around to Ayton anyway. The graphic I showed was based on players who have played this season. Most everyone has been a plus defender and and most of it is in kind of a cluster in the middle in the graphic. It's mostly a team effort right now.

[sunsbg]

I don't know how this got around to Ayton anyway. The graphic I showed was based on players who have played this season. Most everyone has been a plus defender and and most of it is in kind of a cluster in the middle in the graphic. It's mostly a team effort right now.

Because of the following lines by you, which someone already called "passive aggressive" behavior towards Ayton :

"But being the numbers show Frank and Dario or among our top defenders, our defense might drop off with the return of Ayton unless that Kings game was indicative of how his play will be every game.

I have no real reason to think otherwise other than the two previous seasons."

Weren't there advanced stats that you value so much showing Ayton's improvement on D last season ? Or it's really just one game ? What about Frank and Dario's last two seasons, were they any better ? As pointed out by ImNotMcDiSwear context matters. There is no way Ayton is not looking better this season, much less comparing with his college season.

[bwgood77]

I don't know how this got around to Ayton anyway. The graphic I showed was based on players who have played this season. Most everyone has been a plus defender and and most of it is in kind of a cluster in the middle in the graphic. It's mostly a team effort right now.

Because of the following lines by you, which someone already called "passive aggressive" behavior towards Ayton :

"But being the numbers show Frank and Dario or among our top defenders, our defense might drop off with the return of Ayton unless that Kings game was indicative of how his play will be every game.

I have no real reason to think otherwise other than the two previous seasons."

Weren't there advanced stats that you value so much showing Ayton's improvement on D last season ? Or it's really just one game ? What about Frank and Dario's last two seasons, were they any better ? As pointed out by ImNotMcDiSwear context matters. There is no way Ayton is not looking better this season, much less comparing with his college season.

I could see how one could read it like that. I think our defense right now is largely team based (and the PFs have bought into that, and done well despite not typically being good defenders to say the least), and injecting someone who has sat for 25 games is an unknown, particularly if he replaces Baynes in the starting unit.

Ayton did improve in some areas like DFG% last year, but still at the end, ranked near the bottom of Cs defensively. I definitely think he should move up a little bit and since our defense is more team based, that should certainly help him, considering his biggest weaknesses are team and help defense.

And I don't particularly value what all might consider advanced stats, or at least sometimes the context in how they are used. For example, some defensive metrics will always have Cs ranked highest simply due to rebounding which in their metric is considered a defensive metric. So one could look at our individual defensive ratings based on that metric and conclude Ayton was by far our best defender last year...though most of the entire team was awful.

[sunsbg]

I don't know how this got around to Ayton anyway. The graphic I showed was based on players who have played this season. Most everyone has been a plus defender and and most of it is in kind of a cluster in the middle in the graphic. It's mostly a team effort right now.

Because of the following lines by you, which someone already called "passive aggressive" behavior towards Ayton :

"But being the numbers show Frank and Dario or among our top defenders, our defense might drop off with the return of Ayton unless that Kings game was indicative of how his play will be every game.

I have no real reason to think otherwise other than the two previous seasons."

Weren't there advanced stats that you value so much showing Ayton's improvement on D last season ? Or it's really just one game ? What about Frank and Dario's last two seasons, were they any better ? As pointed out by ImNotMcDiSwear context matters. There is no way Ayton is not looking better this season, much less comparing with his college season.

I could see how one could read it like that. I think our defense right now is largely team based (and the PFs have bought into that, and done well despite not typically being good defenders to say the least), and injecting someone who has sat for 25 games is an unknown, particularly if he replaces Baynes in the starting unit.

Ayton did improve in some areas like DFG% last year, but still at the end, ranked near the bottom of Cs defensively. I definitely think he should move up a little bit and since our defense is more team based, that should certainly help him, considering his biggest weaknesses are team and help defense.

And I don't particularly value what all might consider advanced stats, or at least sometimes the context in how they are used. For example, some defensive metrics will always have Cs ranked highest simply due to rebounding which in their metric is considered a defensive metric. So one could look at our individual defensive ratings based on that metric and conclude Ayton was by far our best defender last year...though most of the entire team was awful.

Fair enough. I'm rooting for Ayton as both this and future seasons depend greatly on his development. Don't want him to read this board, get upset and double the amount of PEDs.

[lilfishi22]

I didn’t expect Cam Johnson to look as timid out there as he’s been so far especially since he’s the oldest rookie of the draft class (and even older than Booker).

Usually the older prospects have a lower ceiling but are able to be somewhat productive pretty quickly.

Hope confidence isn’t the issue for him.

It looks to me like Cam lacks physical confidence, which undermines his confidence in his shot. I haven't reached any conclusions about him yet (I'm always slow to give up on our high draft picks). I agree with you that the early signs are not positive.

Why does he wear a shirt under his jersey? What's the deal there?

He's turning 24 this season. He doesn't have a ton of physical maturing left to go through, unlike a 19-20 year old. It's frustrating when a guy who's suppose to be ready to at least shoot, isn't just firing away. Unlike Bender, who you could understand if he's lacking confidence because he came into the league at like 18 or 19 without much high level experience, patience isn't generally afford to soon to be 24 year olds because soon to be 24 year olds, typically gets taken late or go undrafted.

Tyler Johnson wears a compression T under the jersey too. I think it looks ****, like some dude at the Y who wears shirts under their favourite player's jersey. But each to their own I suppose

[denial]

This is why we need a PG who can shoot and finish at the basket.

Rubio's passing is a 7
Rubio's finishing is a 3
Rubio's shooting is a 1

Nash was 9/9/10

Wait are you saying that Steve Nash, hall of fame super star, one of the best guards to ever play nba basketball, is better than Ricky Rubio!?!?

Wow man than you for the revelation.

On a side note, how would you rank Nash’s defense on your 10 scale?

[denial]

I didn’t expect Cam Johnson to look as timid out there as he’s been so far especially since he’s the oldest rookie of the draft class (and even older than Booker).

Usually the older prospects have a lower ceiling but are able to be somewhat productive pretty quickly.

Hope confidence isn’t the issue for him.

It looks to me like Cam lacks physical confidence, which undermines his confidence in his shot. I haven't reached any conclusions about him yet (I'm always slow to give up on our high draft picks). I agree with you that the early signs are not positive.

Why does he wear a shirt under his jersey? What's the deal there?

He's turning 24 this season. He doesn't have a ton of physical maturing left to go through, unlike a 19-20 year old. It's frustrating when a guy who's suppose to be ready to at least shoot, isn't just firing away. Unlike Bender, who you could understand if he's lacking confidence because he came into the league at like 18 or 19 without much high level experience, patience isn't generally afford to soon to be 24 year olds because soon to be 24 year olds, typically gets taken late or go undrafted.

Tyler Johnson wears a compression T under the jersey too. I think it looks ****, like some dude at the Y who wears shirts under their favourite player's jersey. But each to their own I suppose

I never hooped for a team with jerseies.sonim not sure if the material etc is the same. But in baseball they irritated my nipples! Haha clown if you like. But that one game I forgot my undershirt sucked.