The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread

[limbo]

Once he can get that step in front of you, you're not going to recover without fouling him, because he uses that big body to shield the ball and stop your momentum and then he'll accelerate again. It's something that old CP3 mastered, once he couldn't rely on his explosiveness anymore.

The floater is probably the most unsung broken shot in basketball. There's no way to contest that. If you drive fully to the rim for a dunk/layup the rim protector will be able to contest or block your shot, but if you float it ahead of getting all the way to the basket he can't get to it before it starts reaching it's downward trajectory. I'm really surprised more people haven't caught up to this. Harden realized this a couple of years ago, now he spams this a lot. Someone that made a legendary career out of this was Juan Carlos Navarro in Europe. All the dude was doing was running the pick n roll and then either shooting the three if they gave him space or driving inside and shoot the floater.

And that's mainly Luka's game right now, but with added elite passing. Outside of those step back jumpers where he's feeling himself a bit. He's not shooting mid-range jumpers, no fadeaways or face up jumpres, he doesn't post up, he's not trying to finish among the trees with acrobatic shots... Just keep it simple.

[The-Power]

He's not shooting mid-range jumpers, no fadeaways or face up jumpres, he doesn't post up, he's not trying to finish among the trees with acrobatic shots... Just keep it simple.

True for the most part, but he does post up occasionally and in those cases he sometimes relies on fadeaway jumpers. His play in the paint is on point recently, though. If he has space, he takes a floater; if he big steps up he goes for relatively uncontested lay-ups or lobs; and if the defense collapses towards the paint, he finds open shooters.

[Dr Positivity]

Pretty frightening how he can get better than this. He has taken 2 shots all year from 16-23 feet and is shooting 32% from 3.

[limbo]

I just saw a segment on ESPN where Will Cain (or Chain, whatever his name is) was arguing Luka is a Top 10 player in the NBA this season (if we account for injuries, so no KD, Steph etc.) First i kind of scoffed at it, but after giving it a brief thought, he might be right, lol.

There's really not that many guys you can firmly put above Luka. There is:

Giannis
LeBron
Kawhi
Harden (even after his relatively poor start, i think most would agree he has enough of a track record)
AD
Embiid

After this, it's starts getting a bit muddier

Lillard (elite player, but jury still out on how sustainable his hot start is, and it needs to be on a high level, since his defense is not good to put it lightly)

KAT maybe? He would need to have quite the scoring edge over Luka since his playmaking is worse and his defense isn't really his calling card)

Jimmy Buckets?

Jokic? (hard to argue right now, after the start he had)

Westbrook? (kinda inconsistent)

Siakam?

[TheBonzaiEffect]

I just saw a segment on ESPN where Will Cain (or Chain, whatever his name is) was arguing Luka is a Top 10 player in the NBA this season (if we account for injuries, so no KD, Steph etc.) First i kind of scoffed at it, but after giving it a brief thought, he might be right, lol.

There's really not that many guys you can firmly put above Luka. There is:

Giannis
LeBron
Kawhi
Harden (even after his relatively poor start, i think most would agree he has enough of a track record)
AD
Embiid

After this, it's starts getting a bit muddier

Lillard (elite player, but jury still out on how sustainable his hot start is, and it needs to be on a high level, since his defense is not good to put it lightly)

KAT maybe? He would need to have quite the scoring edge over Luka since his playmaking is worse and his defense isn't really his calling card)

Jimmy Buckets?

Jokic? (hard to argue right now, after the start he had)

Westbrook? (kinda inconsistent)

Siakam?

Right now Luka is easily a top 10 player. Definitely ahead of Butler, Westbrook, Jokic.

[Dr Spaceman]

Luka is definitely a top 10 player right now along with Siakam. We will see if they can sustain this for a full season but right now I don’t see it as arguable.

[Dr Spaceman]

Once he can get that step in front of you, you're not going to recover without fouling him, because he uses that big body to shield the ball and stop your momentum and then he'll accelerate again. It's something that old CP3 mastered, once he couldn't rely on his explosiveness anymore.

The floater is probably the most unsung broken shot in basketball. There's no way to contest that. If you drive fully to the rim for a dunk/layup the rim protector will be able to contest or block your shot, but if you float it ahead of getting all the way to the basket he can't get to it before it starts reaching it's downward trajectory. I'm really surprised more people haven't caught up to this. Harden realized this a couple of years ago, now he spams this a lot. Someone that made a legendary career out of this was Juan Carlos Navarro in Europe. All the dude was doing was running the pick n roll and then either shooting the three if they gave him space or driving inside and shoot the floater.

And that's mainly Luka's game right now, but with added elite passing. Outside of those step back jumpers where he's feeling himself a bit. He's not shooting mid-range jumpers, no fadeaways or face up jumpres, he doesn't post up, he's not trying to finish among the trees with acrobatic shots... Just keep it simple.

Tony Parker was a master of the floater as was AI with his famous “teardrop” shot which went like 30 feet up in the air. In that era though it seen kind of seen as “settling”, and you’re right that the big scorers are now seeing it as an actual weapon and a shot they should seek out.

[Don7]

One of the reason he can put defenders in jail is because of his wide shoulders,like Harden big chest he uses it to his advantage.

69,8 % on the rim (with only one dunk) , elite Steph like touch.
Many players run to damn fast to have their floater be effective , Doncic does not rush it at all (his size helps).

For this year i am more interested that his free throws are about 85% then three point percentage (that's the last step)

[Oscar9992]

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[The-Power]

I hate that TPA is now all over this board, as if it actually is an informative stat.

[AdagioPace]

I hate that TPA is now all over this board, as if it actually is an informative stat.

yeah (especially on the defensive end...). I have to admit their graphs look good and they're easily digestible on twitter.

[Peregrine01]

His passing is so elite that he gets defenders guessing right up until he gets to the rim and then he has a wide open look. It’s something that I’ve only really seen consistently from Nash.

[ShotCreator]

He has to be the greatest offensive 20 year old ever and it’s not even close.

I cannot believe what I’m watching in this Boston game.

[ardee]

With the Warriors collapse, it opens up a slot in the playoff race in the West, and realistically, it looks like Dallas is a strong candidate for that spot.

Clippers, Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Rockets, Blazers, Spurs are going to make it, imo.

That leaves:

Kings - awful
Grizz - awful
Pels - too young, Zion probably won't be rushed back etiher
Wolves - KAT + garbage = not good enough
Thunder - not good enough, looking like CP3 isn't bothered unless he's playing for a contender

It's hard to believe it, but it's looking like the only threat to Dallas are going to be the Phoenix Suns, lmao. They're playing way above their heads right now, but i actually do think they are a respectable team, although i don't know for how long is it feasible for Baynes to play like the GOAT and Kelly Oubre like an all-star. The Ayton debacle could come back to haunt them though.

Blazers and Spurs are definitely not locks imo. But yeah the Mavs are in the running for sure.

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[Oscar9992]

Top 3 in PER
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 33.8
2. Damian Lillard - 30.8
3. Luka Doncic - 29.8

Top 3 in VORP:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 1.3
2. Luka Doncic - 1.1
3. Damian Lillard 1.1

Top 3 in Win Shares:
1. Damian Lillard - 2.4
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 2.2
3. Luka Doncic - 1.9

Top 3 in Box Plus/Minus:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 13.9
2. Luka Doncic - 10.8
3. Lebron James - 10.5

[Jim Naismith]

He is a top-5 player so far this regular season.

LeBron, Harden, Luka, Giannis, Lillard

[Yuri36]

He is a top-5 player so far this regular season.

LeBron, Harden, Luka, Giannis, Lillard

I have a hard time considering Harden a top 5 player this season despite his 37 ppg.
A 39% shooting and 5.5 TOs are too much to get ignored.
I would either put AD or Kawhi instead of Harden.

[Dr Spaceman]

Porzingis is turning into a big problem for Dallas. He has a -25 on/off right now. They could very well be 8-1 or 9-0 if they just outright benched him. I think it’s likely this will be a Gordon Hayward situation where we won’t see him get to his old level of play until he has a full season under his belt, and there is still a chance he doesn’t ever get there at all.

What do you do with KP?

[limbo]

What do you do with KP?

You give him more time than 9 games and keep playing him... What else is there? The Mavs traded for KP with the belief that he could realize his potential of being an all-star level player for this team. Makes no sense to abandon the plan this soon in favor of giving Dwight Powell more minutes or something... even though it might make the team better short-term, because KP is really playing badly right now. However, KP is coming back from a long lay off. Everyone knew struggling out of the gate was a real possibility, but since he is still only 24 yrs old, and the Mavs are really in no rush to compete right now, there's time for things to work out nicely here. It will just require patience.

I will say this though, KP is a specifically frustrating and confusing player from a skillset POV. He'll have these amazing moments defensively where he looks like a DPOY level rim protector with his size and shot-blocking ability, but other times he'll just get played like a chump by crafty players... His lack of quickness is also a problem when it comes to defending outside the paint and in transition. Then there's this weird allergy he seems to have for rebounding. How does a dude his size average like 6 rebounds per game? I thought at least 5 of them should automatically hit him in the head with his size...

Offensively dude has a severe case of tunnel-vision. Most of the time he gets the ball he's just looking to shoot over people. He's not the best roll man because he's kind of slow, flat-footed and weak in terms of strength, so he automatically prefers to pop. But when he's shooting like he has been this season, it's irrelevant, he becomes a glorified screener at this point.

I'm hesitant on giving him too much stick this early, especially since he's just getting back from injury, but it really looks like if his shot isn't falling, he's struggling majorly to contribute offensively. He can still space the floor, but when he gets the ball he is pretty limited in his options, especially when he catches it on the perimeter (and he's been doing mostly that). He's too slow to drive by smaller/quicker 5's, and even if he somehow manages to get a head start, he's not the best finisher at the rim and has zero playmaking ability.

I would try to get him the ball closer to the basket, in the low post perhaps. That way he has less distance to travel if he decides to put it on the floor and should in theory be easier to score since he's shooting closer to the basket. And if they try to send help, he can make the simple pass, instead of trying to make complicated reads.

Still, he'll need add things to his offensive game going forward, that's for certain.. Too reliant on his shooting right now, and if he's cold, he's trying to shoot himself out of said cold, instead of finding other ways he could be useful.

[eminence]

Yeah, gotta keep working with KP. He doesn't have forever, but it's far too early now to do anything major.