10 Game Report - Players

[Knightro]

Some trends/takeaways through the first ten games of the season. I have removed Jefferson, Magette, Frazier, Birch and Iwundu from the rankings since they haven't played enough minutes.

NET RATING
Isaac +4.3
Fultz +3.5
Bamba +3.1
Fournier +1.9
Vucevic +1.7
Aminu -2.1
Gordon -2.4
Augustin -3.6
Carter-Williams -4.4
Ross -5.7

OBPM
Fournier +1.6
Vucevic +0.7
Gordon +0.7
Isaac -0.5
Augustin -0.9
Fultz -1.2
Carter-Williams -3.1
Ross -4.0
Aminu -4.2
Bamba -6.0

DBPM
Isaac +6.1
Carter-Williams +3.8
Aminu +2.8
Vucevic +2.4
Bamba +2.1
Gordon +0.3
Fultz -0.4
Ross -1.1
Fournier -1.4
Augustin -3.2

BPM
Isaac +5.6
Vucevic +3.1
Gordon +1.0
Carter-Williams +0.7
Fournier +0.3
Aminu -1.4
Fultz -1.6
Bamba -3.9
Augustin -4.1
Ross -5.1

LINEUPS THAT WORK (minimum 10 minutes)
Fultz-Fournier-Gordon-Isaac-Vucevic +5.1 NET in 118 minutes
Augustin-Ross-Gordon-Aminu-Bamba +11.3 NET in 27 minutes
Fultz-Fournier-Aminu-Isaac-Vucevic +12.0 NET in 17 minutes
Augustin-Ross-Aminu-Isaac-Vucevic +21.1 NET in 11 minutes

LINEUPS THAT DO NOT WORK (minimum 10 minutes)
Augustin-Fournier-Gordon-Isaac-Vucevic -4.4 NET in 64 minutes
Fultz-MCW-Ross-Aminu-Bamba -30.4 NET in 19 minutes
Augustin-MCW-Ross-Aminu-Bamba -8.0 NET in 18 minutes
Augustin-MCW-Gordon-Aminu-Bamba -8.3 NET in 11 minutes


TAKEAWAYS
-The rotation moving forward is hopefully starting to come into focus.
The current starting lineup is performing well. The Fultz/Augustin switch has paid dividends with both the first and second units. The bench unit needs to be Augustin/Ross/Gordon/Aminu/Bamba or Isaac in Gordon's spot. All three of those lineups have performed well and will hopefully continue to do so. One thing I would like to see is less Augustin with the starters deep into the 4th Q. Vucevic, Fournier and Isaac are coming back into the game with 8-9 minutes left in the 4th and Fultz isn't coming back until 4-5 minutes left. That needs to change sooner than later.

-Steve Clifford needs to mercifully pull the plug on the Michael Carter-Williams experiment.
MCW is a very good defensive player. He passes both the eye test and the metrics test as a defender. That said... he simply cannot be playing 17 MPG on a team that already struggles to score. The Fultz/MCW pairing, which Clifford has remarkably gone to in 7 of 10 games this year, has predictably been a complete disaster with a -24.0 NET in 28 minutes together. MCW is a specialist who should be used as such.

-The veterans are letting the team down
We were all worried about Vucevic regressing and statistically he has by dropping from a 6.4 BPM to a 3.1 BPM. However, a +3.1 BPM is still something you can work with (9th best among centers and the 2nd best of Vucevic's career). The much larger negative culprits have been Augustin (-4.1 BPM this year compared to -0.3 last year) and Ross (-5.1 BPM this year compared to -0.3 last year). I'm somewhat optimistic Ross is going to turn things around, but Augustin might be a lost cause this year.

-The young guys are stepping up
We all know how good Jonathan Isaac has been. He's legitimate a Defensive Player of the Year candidate right now. The extra weight and strength has been a fantastic addition for him. Markelle Fultz can't shoot a lick, but he's making a significant positive impact with the second highest NET on the team. 3-7 through 10 games definitely stinks, but if you're looking for something encouraging, the Fultz/Isaac pairing has the best NET rating on the whole team, +8.4 in 181 minutes together. These two guys are our future. Mo Bamba's individual numbers have been horrific and the Magic can't score at all when he's on the floor, but collectively they're playing great defense when he's out there. He still looks lost a lot and has some disturbingly low motor moments, but there are at least SOME encouraging signs after a miserable rookie season.

[OrlandO]

If we can make the playoffs with Fultz starting and bamba as primary backup most of the season then it will be a success.

[ezzzp]

The Magic's point differential after 10 games:



The Magic's SRS score after 10 games:



*SRS (Simple Rating System): A team rating that takes into account point differential and strength of schedule

The Magic's Pythagorean Record (expected wins and losses based on point differential) is 5 wins - 5 losses (.500)

[pepe1991]

If we can make the playoffs with Fultz starting and bamba as primary backup most of the season then it will be a success.

It looks like it will be enough to win 38 wins to make a playoff. Not sure making it will be sucess.East overall is complete trash with 9 below average teams

[basketballRob]

Delete

[OrlandO]

If we can make the playoffs with Fultz starting and bamba as primary backup most of the season then it will be a success.

It looks like it will be enough to win 38 wins to make a playoff. Not sure making it will be sucess.East overall is complete trash with 9 below average teams

The 7-9 teams have the same records as they did this time last year. Later in the season teams in the playoff hunt will attempt to turn it up and of course there will be a bunch of tankers giving away games. In the end it will probably require 40-42 wins to get in. But I don't really care what the win total is as long as we get in again. Last season Fultz looked like his arm was falling off and his career was over... Bamba had biyombo-like negative impact and his body broke down after half a season. Ideally we'd want to win more games than the previous season, but replacing DJ/Birch with our young prospects and still making the playoffs would still be progress in my book.