MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[Swish1906]

I'm listening to Bill Simmons and Kevin O'Connor do their 10 game awards and Luka came up as the 2nd MVP candidate behind Giannis. Bill's reasoning, "They're really really good at offense and he's the only reason why".

Makes sense, but after taking a look at the numbers the Mavericks are 6.1 points worse per100 on offense with Luka on the court. They are 15.9 points overall with Luka on the court. I'm not saying this is on Luka, clearly this is some collateral damage with Porzingis who has been terrible.

However, when you think about Luka carrying the Mavs to success on his own, this is not necessarily true. Their reserve units are doing well and that is why they are 6-4.

This was discussed several times:

The deep Mavs bench is destroying the other benches (except the Knicks game)
Carlisle messing with the S5 every single game and the S5 BESIDE Luka isnt working well

So thats a perfect example of the flaws of on/off stats

It's just worth noting that the Mavs are being crushed when Luka is on the court. Doesn't mean he's bad or the cause for it, but like I said, I think people assume that the Mavs are doing well because there is Luka and no one else.

Dame is not a consideration because his team is so bad. Should having a good/bad bench impact your candidacy?

I watched every game and they would be 0-10 or 1-9 without Luka.

[KqWIN]

This was discussed several times:

The deep Mavs bench is destroying the other benches (except the Knicks game)
Carlisle messing with the S5 every single game and the S5 BESIDE Luka isnt working well

So thats a perfect example of the flaws of on/off stats

It's just worth noting that the Mavs are being crushed when Luka is on the court. Doesn't mean he's bad or the cause for it, but like I said, I think people assume that the Mavs are doing well because there is Luka and no one else.

Dame is not a consideration because his team is so bad. Should having a good/bad bench impact your candidacy?

I watched every game and they would be 0-10 or 1-9 without Luka.

Maybe, but if Luka had POR's bench, they'd probably be 4-6 or worse and there would be a much different energy about his success. Just like there is with Dame. On the other hand, if Dame had DAL's bench he would be a top MVP candidate no question.

This is how MVP narratives work, but I don't think it should work that way.

[The Explorer]

Doesn't having a mvp contender on your own team downgrade you as an mvp candidate (James/Davis)? How valuable are you when your teammate has such high impact?

[duppyy]

Doesn't having a mvp contender on your own team downgrade you as an mvp candidate (James/Davis)? How valuable are you when your teammate has such high impact?

It only downgrades you if you're KD and playing for GState. Qing is exonerated from such rules.

[Wooderson]

It's just worth noting that the Mavs are being crushed when Luka is on the court. Doesn't mean he's bad or the cause for it, but like I said, I think people assume that the Mavs are doing well because there is Luka and no one else.

Dame is not a consideration because his team is so bad. Should having a good/bad bench impact your candidacy?

The Mavs are -0.4 per 100 with Luka on the court this year, how is that "being crushed"? Maybe you were looking at Porzingis who has a team worst -8.3 on court NetRtg?

[KqWIN]

It's just worth noting that the Mavs are being crushed when Luka is on the court. Doesn't mean he's bad or the cause for it, but like I said, I think people assume that the Mavs are doing well because there is Luka and no one else.

Dame is not a consideration because his team is so bad. Should having a good/bad bench impact your candidacy?

The Mavs are -0.4 per 100 with Luka on the court this year, how is that "being crushed"? Maybe you were looking at Porzingis who has a team worst -8.3 on court NetRtg?

Should have added on "compared to when he's not on the court". I left that out, and it does change the context so I apologize from my mistake.

The end point is the same though. It's incorrect to assume that the Mavs are doing well because of Luka and no one else.

[Krodis]

So the Rockets are 8-3 and Harden is averaging like 38 a game...

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[TurboTitan]

James Harden might be the best all around scorer of all time

[wonkrazyz28]

Once again, James Harden will be top 2 in MVP voting again.

Whats the narrative against him this time? LeBron saving the Lakers?

[Cavsfansince84]

Once again, James Harden will be top 2 in MVP voting again.

Whats the narrative against him this time? LeBron saving the Lakers?

There doesn't have to be a narrative against him. I think he'll be top 3. There's a lot of games left to be played though.

[scrabbarista]

Read on Twitter

Master Stepbacko with Guka and Traeillin

They're also the top three in minutes with the ball ("time of possession"). Luka has the ball for 9.4 minutes per game, Trae for 9.1, and Harden for 8.4. I would imagine Harden's number will go up after tonight's game against the Clippers. Look at the list from there:

LeBron James, Lillard, Brogdon, Rubio, Irving, Graham (CHA), Walker (BOS), VanVleet, Fox, Rose (DET), Russell, Morant, Augustin, Lowry, Paul, Simmons... LouWill, Westbrook, Conley, Dragic, Teague, Holiday, Winslow, Murray (DEN), Leonard (LAC).

I think this kind of proves why positions are so silly sometimes. Most people don't consider Doncic, LeBron, and Harden to be point guards, and yet they sit at the top of this list of players who are almost exclusively point guards. This stat is probably the single one that most defines what a point guard is, and Doncic, Harden, and LeBron are #1, #3, and #4. They also happen to be #1, #2, and #6 in assists (per basketball-reference). Shouldn't we say that all three are point guards this year? Or shouldn't we just get rid of the old position names altogether? I feel like the position names become more meaningless with every passing year.

[mademan]

Once again, James Harden will be top 2 in MVP voting again.

Whats the narrative against him this time? LeBron saving the Lakers?

Its gonna be wins. Bucks are poised to win 60 agains and Giannis is gonna have the same cartoonish numbers that Harden will. Are the Rox gonna win that many games? Are they even gonna be top 2 in their conference?

[GreatWhiteStiff]

So the Rockets are 8-3 and Harden is averaging like 38 a game...

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I mean im stating the obvious but if his three was falling a bit more he'd be running away with the award.

[LoneyROY]

Uh oh, Harden back in the MVP conversation again.

[TheGOATRises007]

James Harden might be the best all around scorer of all time

In the RS?

Arguable.

Not in the playoffs though.

[Joest2003]

We are barely starting the season and there are 1-2 games separating these teams lol. Despite Bookers unsustainable shooting, both KAT and especially Lillard have clearly been the better players. Lillard consistently leads his team above expectations and was in the Western Conference Finals last year (down a premiere center) before finally being outplayed by Curry. There is no "popularity contest" in having him over Devin **** Booker lol. I like Kemba but he is not/never will be an MVP candidate and doesn't deserve discussion.

Why are you talking about what Lillard did last year? As of now his team is not even .500

As of today, Kemba is 100% more of a MVP candidate than Lillard. Winning matters and a team that's hovering around .500 will never have a MVP.

Because precedent matters and a team's record is next to meaningless 8 games into the season? Kemba is the same player he has always been. And it's no MVP. Sorry if you're a Kemba/Celtics fan or something, that's not a debate worth having. Lillard and KAT are special players and have an outside shot of being an MVP with the level they are at (granted neither are Giannis level). Again, it is no fault of Lillard that his teammates have been terrible. His play has been incredible.

.....well this didnt age well

[AussieBuck]

I'm listening to Bill Simmons and Kevin O'Connor do their 10 game awards and Luka came up as the 2nd MVP candidate behind Giannis. Bill's reasoning, "They're really really good at offense and he's the only reason why".

Makes sense, but after taking a look at the numbers the Mavericks are 6.1 points worse per100 on offense with Luka on the court. They are 15.9 points overall with Luka on the court. I'm not saying this is on Luka, clearly this is some collateral damage with Porzingis who has been terrible.

However, when you think about Luka carrying the Mavs to success on his own, this is not necessarily true. Their reserve units are doing well and that is why they are 6-4.

From memory Luka is playing about 3/4 of his minutes with KP and KP is currently playing like Gooden by +/-. Luka must have crazy +/- without KP on court to make up for it.

[Wooderson]

It's just worth noting that the Mavs are being crushed when Luka is on the court. Doesn't mean he's bad or the cause for it, but like I said, I think people assume that the Mavs are doing well because there is Luka and no one else.

Dame is not a consideration because his team is so bad. Should having a good/bad bench impact your candidacy?

The Mavs are -0.4 per 100 with Luka on the court this year, how is that "being crushed"? Maybe you were looking at Porzingis who has a team worst -8.3 on court NetRtg?

Should have added on "compared to when he's not on the court". I left that out, and it does change the context so I apologize from my mistake.

The end point is the same though. It's incorrect to assume that the Mavs are doing well because of Luka and no one else.

Oh yeah it's a mischaracterization to say they're getting crushed with Luka. The bench has been awesome and definitely been a big part of their successs but Luka has been a huge part of getting them to be one of the best offenses in the league so far despite some meh play from other starters.

Luka has played way more minutes than anyone else on the team meaning he's likely playing against starters the most. Most of the on/off difference is due to defense which some is probably attributed to Luka but also to his teammates/opponents and possibly some noise.

Porizingis hasnt looked great and his on/off splits are way more eye opening. As AussieBuck mentioned they've shared the floor a lot - 224 minutes and are -36 in those possessions. Lukas played 348 total minutes and is -4 total, so without KP Luka is +32 in 124 minutes (but again the minutes they share are likely against starters).

There's a lot of noise in on/off, especially with only 10 game sample. You can tell what's happening on the floor at a high level but extrapolating impact from it is problematic. Interesting to track nonetheless.

[Purdydrup]

It's absolutely disrespectful that Siakam is not on this poll. He's averaging 27/9/4 on great percentages while leading his team to the second best record in the conference, and this is after losing Kawhi Leonard. Oh and he actually plays defense.

[User_friendly]

Doesn't having a mvp contender on your own team downgrade you as an mvp candidate (James/Davis)? How valuable are you when your teammate has such high impact?

It should in a way, of course. But the most widespread thinking I see, is that, first, your team has to be winning to be considered, so actually, it helps a lot. (Which I think is a blind way to measure impact when you don't have other tools, but maybe it's just me).

So I really think that if they both deliver as MVP candidates and win the West, THEN, they could have nearly a 50/50 to get the MVP.
So in reality I think they can be favoured.