GeorgeMarcus wrote:(Dirk , please don't hold this thread against me
)
His box numbers have been incredible, but his impact just isn't there.
No worries.
Life is great. Basketball gods blessed the Mavs. And Clowney wrecked the 49ers - did you see the fear in JimmyG's eyes? That was so beautiful. Let me be very frank, if I was rooting for most other teams (and I have plenty on top of my head), I'd be trading my whole franchise away for Doncic. We went from being just about the most boring team in the league to having fun every other night.
So while I actually enjoy criticism or different points of view, in this particular case, it's actually just symbolic of how far ahead of time he is --- guy is not 21 yet. Scoring 28.3 ppg on 61 TS%. 10.3 rbs, 9.1 assists. If someone told us that he'd be averaging this in year 2... we'd be laughing at them.
What I infer from your post is that you must be committing a mortal sin --- you have not watched the Mavs (Doncic) play much this year. I'd find it hard to believe that if you saw a guy have good numbers and make the right plays, that you then would look at +/- and somehow think he hasn't made that much impact. You grant him incredible numbers. So if the incredible numbers don't translate into the +/- column, "what is he doing wrong?" What is he doing that is hindering team success? What are others doing that is "making up for Doncic's lack of impact"? It's actually hard to ask him to better his numbers (it's possible, but if this stat line is beyond what most optimists would expect in year 2).
Is he preventing the team from being better? Should he shoot (even) better? Play off the ball more? A case has been made for that, but of course, this is more about coaching and having other guys run the team while he is on the floor. Let Brunson run the team on his own since he has the best +/- through 10 games despite shooting below 50%ts? Should he ask Tim Hardaway Jr how to better his game since, by the same data, he has amazing +/-?
Here's what one sees when watching him play this year, he makes good decisions most of the time. Dare I say he is an elite decision maker already? Because if you are on the floor with him... you can be sure he can find you, at any time, anywhere. He is extremely unselfish, looks to pass often, other times he looks to score when he feels that the team needs a spark and he needs to take over. Managing those moments, managing all the plays (guy literally does ALL the heavy lifting on offense) is quite complex for a 20 year old, and he has done superbly given the context. The way he reads and instinctively reacts is impressive since he is operating "at his own speed" and against some athletic freaks. So you get my idea... you see a guy playing well, being a team player --- not some guy who is 'selfishly' piling up numbers. How can you then somehow put the blame of the +/- at his doorstep? You can't. And I doubt you would if you were a Mavs fan or just watched the team play. You would look at other reasons and not at the guy that is having a goat season for a 20yo.
Since his numbers are good. We have to really dig deep for problems, I guess most would be:
--- shot selection, some low percentage shots (it's actually not that many now, but they stick out when taken, especially because he shows that he can get better shots with apparent ease)
--- some careless turnovers
--- some defensive lapses, guys cutting behind him while he is looking away, giving up some uncontested layups
--- occasionally there were complaints about passiveness in trying to score, early in the season (comical to say "early", when we only played 10 games, but think of the Blazers game)
Here's the thing though, you can see his improvement from last year and during this young season. This is his current shot chart
Lives at the basket now and scores at an elite level there, shooting better than Lebron there probably. His FT% jumped up incredibly from last season. Some actually advocate that he should shoot more from midrange since he gets the space, but he's actually pretty much eliminated mid-range shots from his game thus far. At times he takes some wild shots because he must get really bored of manipulating defenders and getting them on his back as he either takes a floater or lobs it up for someone else.
He has toyed with at least 3 teams this year. Meaning... he played at half pace... and put up some of the ridiculous numbers you see on his game logs. I invite you to watch games vs Wizards, vs Cavs, vs Grizzlies. You will know.
You mention the rookie year. Can't ignore the Mavs make major moves that impacted the team. A visualization, raw +/- since it's the thing brought up, +7 before major moves. -150 the rest of the way. Rough idea: Before: 55 ts% (29.3 usg%), after 52.3 ts% (33.5 usg%). From (20 - 7 - 5.6) to (22 - 9.9 - 7.2). Essentially, the team had a structure before the trades, then blown up (and thankfully they did that) and it was just a mess the rest of the way. So his numbers are definitely skewed by that.
The basketball post trades was abysmal. That includes Doncic's own basketball - it wasn't very pretty to watch at all. Talent was there, but it was just bad basketball. So I would only be concerned with the +/- data if he was playing inefficiently (like last year post trade). That is not the case at all (as the individual numbers immediately tell you)... so it's really more of a case where you look at the guy and feel cool with what he is doing, so then you look at "other reasons".
It's 10 games. He has had 2 bad games out of 10. Look at his numbers. He was -17 in Boston. A top team in the league. Boston fans can chime in here and tell us what they witnessed... they are or were what 7-1, 8-1?... and Doncic was the best player on the floor (please allow me to say this Kemba). He played against Smart the whole game and some other guy doubling him. Not Wannamaker, the Williams guy or whoever like the bench dudes did.
Blitzed by double teams, made the right play pretty much every time. And still found a way to score on his own because he just had to. Willed the team back and take a lead in the 4th quarter. Killed by Kemba in the end. He was -12 in the 4Q despite playing well.
Here's some of the Boston double teams:
the double teamsHe was -17 in Denver - where he actually played terribly and the Mavs bench had a surreal game. So in one game he played great, -17. In another he played badly, -17. Same number. Totally different story.
The +/- data that you are using in your OP tells us this:
Tim Hardaway Jr is the Mavs just
most impactful player this year. He is rocking a +17.6.
Reality: he is an abomination. Jacks shots up like there's no tomorrow. Pylon on defense. Shooting just 37-percent from the field, 32-percent from deep. These plays actually reflect the player on offense and defense:
I have monitored the +/- all year and it's also intriguing how Brunson (who I love) actually has the best +/- and he has played below his level [Brunson is #3 in the league when on the court, +14.4!]. The only guy who actually has a +/- that matches "the eye test" is Delon Wright who should play more minutes --- you can just see his impact with defensive disruption, timely drives.
The Mavericks don't have a set lineup. They've had 8 different starting lineups if not mistaken. And at the moment it's actually difficult to know exactly what to expect each night, except for you know who.
I don't put too much stock on the "off" numbers since at this point Carlisle has proven that he can have a midget PG, you and some random rim-rolling big and crush other teams benches.
If you're ever bored, go through this topic:
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1717833&start=1120 I dumped some videos in there over time. Hey, they may not translate to the +/-, but they're basketball porn. And I know you love it. So just watch and have fun.
In the same game a player with 34 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds, 67 TS%, only 1 TO, has gotten -17. OP’s model says that Tatum had incredible game and Luka disastrous.
