Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS

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Which advanced stat is better judging a player?

TS %
18
26%
PER
10
14%
VORP
11
16%
Box Plus/Minus
12
17%
Win Shares
11
16%
Other stat (in comments)
8
11%
 
Total votes: 70

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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#61 » by og15 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:16 am

valrond1 wrote:Aaaaand people here are again fooled by useless stat. TS% is useless to evaluate a player. By that metric, the best player ever is...
DeAndre Jordan
Yep.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

PER is much better at saying which player had the most impact in the game. Just check the top players in PER, they mostly won the MVP that season, or were in contention most of the time.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

And career overall.
1st Jordan
2nd Lebron
(what most people have in their GOAT lists)
3rd is Davis but he's still entering his prime, while Jordan dragged on the two seasons with the Wizards and Lebron has started to slow down. Just check this list of all time greats:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_career.html

I don't believe anyone is fooled, they are just answering the question differently. You couldn't have read the thread if you think anyone is saying that you rank players by TS% and use it is a rank of best to worst, that would be crazy. Many people are choosing based on what is the most reliable stat in saying what it claims to say.

The question was which stat is better judging a player. It isn't specifically saying which is better at ranking players or which is better to see how good a player is. Both the poll and first post ask about "judging" a player. Now, there's no problem with understanding that as judging how good a player is, that makes sense. BUT, the question can be understood as which one is best at judging a player at what it aims to judge. Or if I'm judging a player, which stat is most useful or helpful to use in that process, assuming this isn't a one stat analysis.

For judging a player overall, using a single stat is always a problem in itself, but if you are just trying to get a big picture idea of how productive a player is, PER works for the most part. TS% is not a stat for ranking players or getting an overall picture of a player on its own, but in an overall analysis of a player, it is the most directly correlating to what you are looking to get from it.

Of course, continuing with your example of DeAndre Jordan, he has a higher career PER than Reggie Miller. From 24-31, Reggie Miller had a PER of 19.9, DeAndre is 19.8. Now, I would think that the vast majority would argue that Reggie Miller is a much better player than DeAndre Jordan. If the lob city Clippers replaced JJ Redick with Reggie Miller and DeAndre with a replacement level C, of course injuries are still a factor, but that's a much superior team. Obviously there are more examples, and most have these stats will have correlation, especially at the far ends (best and worst players), but in the middle, it will have issues.

So certainly if you are looking at the question as which single stat is best to judge a player's approximate level of play and impact, I would agree that PER is the simplest and most straight forward to get that. Of course it fails at the more detailed level, but every single stat fails at that level.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#62 » by leolozon » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:54 am

Capn'O wrote:
valrond1 wrote:Aaaaand people here are again fooled by useless stat. TS% is useless to evaluate a player. By that metric, the best player ever is...
DeAndre Jordan
Yep.


No. Jordan has been the most efficient at converting the shots he has taken.

Nobody except Mark Cuban and maybe this guy dk4rth that used to post on our board would extrapolate that into meaning he should have had a significantly expanded offensive role that would place him among the all time greats.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

PER is much better at saying which player had the most impact in the game. Just check the top players in PER, they mostly won the MVP that season, or were in contention most of the time.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

And career overall.
1st Jordan
2nd Lebron
(what most people have in their GOAT lists)
3rd is Davis but he's still entering his prime, while Jordan dragged on the two seasons with the Wizards and Lebron has started to slow down. Just check this list of all time greats:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_career.html


PER is much maligned. It's pretty good at saying - hey this guy is good at putting up counted stats. One of the biggest limitations is that it favors bigs that get a lot of rebounds and have a limited offensive role but convert at high percentages. Do you think, for example, that Ivica Zubac is better than Bradley Beal? PER sure does! It does, however, correctly identify Mitchell Robinson as a god among men.


PER doesn’t think that Zubac is better than Beal. It thinks that Zubac is more productive during his 15 min. than Beal during his 36min. That’s not the same thing. You CAN’T compare players who don’t play similar minutes with PER.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#63 » by JonFromVA » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:29 pm

valrond1 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
TheNG wrote:I used the following link to extract some date:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html
Here is the table of the ranking of these 10 players in each metric (1 means 1st in the NBA, 2 means 2nd etc.):

Image

Most metrics show correctly that Giannis is the best player and Doncic 2nd.
TS is completely not a good indication.
WS puts Lillard as number 1, and puts Kawhi, Jokic and Embiid far behind which obviously is wrong.
PER shows correctly that Doncic is much better than LeBron (2nd vs 9th) but shows incorrectly that Embiid is better than Jokic (7th vs 38th).
So we're left with BPM and VORP. It's hard because both put LeBron in Top5 which is obviously wrong. VORP puts Embiid at 28th which is probably too low, so we're left with BPM.

So BPM is the least bad way from all the alternatives you mentioned.
The best way for career evaluation btw is by counting rings 8-)


I just find it strangely backwards to hold up a stat, rank players by it, then judge whether it's any good by the eye test. I recall Hollinger even ran with this concept with PER tweaking his numbers so the list of the highest rated players "looked right" to him.

If the "eye test" is god ... why bother with the stat?

otoh, if we think a stat is designed to tell us something, why don't we listen to it rather than dismiss it?

And most of all, why do we waste our time looking at regression based stats that aren't accompanied by an error?



Again, this thread is about which stats better tells how good a player is. Most people voted for TS%. It has been proven than TS% is the worst by far.

Last season TS% leaders:

1.
Rudy Gobert • UTA
.682
2.
Dwight Powell • DAL
.682
3.
DeAndre Jordan • TOT
.674
4.
Thomas Bryant • WAS
.674
5.
Clint Capela • HOU
.658
6.
Joe Harris • BRK
.645
7.
Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL
.644
8.
Stephen Curry • GSW
.641
9.
Montrezl Harrell • LAC
.636
10.
JaVale McGee • LAL
.634


Actually that's your interpretation of the thread question not literally what was asked. Not that I care but thought I'd point that out to you since you replied to me.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#64 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:34 pm

PER includes TS% yet apparently half the people don’t know that since they picked TS%, which measures nothing but shooting! I mean if you wanted to only care about offence, you would think that would be the way.

I figure w/s can vary and is done lots of different ways so I’ll take that.

None of them are good alone. With no context. None.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#65 » by JonFromVA » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:43 pm

TheNG wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
TheNG wrote:I used the following link to extract some date:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html
Here is the table of the ranking of these 10 players in each metric (1 means 1st in the NBA, 2 means 2nd etc.):

Image

Most metrics show correctly that Giannis is the best player and Doncic 2nd.
TS is completely not a good indication.
WS puts Lillard as number 1, and puts Kawhi, Jokic and Embiid far behind which obviously is wrong.
PER shows correctly that Doncic is much better than LeBron (2nd vs 9th) but shows incorrectly that Embiid is better than Jokic (7th vs 38th).
So we're left with BPM and VORP. It's hard because both put LeBron in Top5 which is obviously wrong. VORP puts Embiid at 28th which is probably too low, so we're left with BPM.

So BPM is the least bad way from all the alternatives you mentioned.
The best way for career evaluation btw is by counting rings 8-)


I just find it strangely backwards to hold up a stat, rank players by it, then judge whether it's any good by the eye test. I recall Hollinger even ran with this concept with PER tweaking his numbers so the list of the highest rated players "looked right" to him.

If the "eye test" is god ... why bother with the stat?

otoh, if we think a stat is designed to tell us something, why don't we listen to it rather than dismiss it?

And most of all, why do we waste our time looking at regression based stats that aren't accompanied by an error?


Once you have a stat you trust more than your "eye test" you should follow it.
However, what you call the "eye test" is actually a very sophisticated neural network trained by millions years of evolution...
I usually use the following algorithm:
When evaluating which player has the best TS% - I use the TS% stat.
When evaluating which player has the best BPM - I use the BPM stat.
When evaluating which player has the best PER - I use the PER stat.
When evaluating which player has the best VORP - I use the VORP stat.
When evaluating which player has the best WS - I use the WS stat.

When evaluating which player is the best- I use my own neural network - giving it the inputs of TS%, BPM, PER, VORP, WS and multiple thousands of other inputs - and let it output the correct answer.


Some of our neural networks work better than others, though with various levels of bias. Since we're going to exercise our brains regardless of what a stat tells us ... the stats we use should be understandable and have high accuracy or they will not be reliable tools.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#66 » by JonFromVA » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:50 pm

Johnny Bball wrote:PER includes TS% yet apparently half the people don’t know that since they picked TS%, which measures nothing but shooting! I mean if you wanted to only care about offence, you would think that would be the way.

I figure w/s can vary and is done lots of different ways so I’ll take that.

None of them are good alone. With no context. None.


Yes TS% is a very useful stat for judging shooting efficiency. Its far better at what it does then the other stats are at what they do.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#67 » by everdiso » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:52 pm

valrond1 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
TheNG wrote:I used the following link to extract some date:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html
Here is the table of the ranking of these 10 players in each metric (1 means 1st in the NBA, 2 means 2nd etc.):

Image

Most metrics show correctly that Giannis is the best player and Doncic 2nd.
TS is completely not a good indication.
WS puts Lillard as number 1, and puts Kawhi, Jokic and Embiid far behind which obviously is wrong.
PER shows correctly that Doncic is much better than LeBron (2nd vs 9th) but shows incorrectly that Embiid is better than Jokic (7th vs 38th).
So we're left with BPM and VORP. It's hard because both put LeBron in Top5 which is obviously wrong. VORP puts Embiid at 28th which is probably too low, so we're left with BPM.

So BPM is the least bad way from all the alternatives you mentioned.
The best way for career evaluation btw is by counting rings 8-)


I just find it strangely backwards to hold up a stat, rank players by it, then judge whether it's any good by the eye test. I recall Hollinger even ran with this concept with PER tweaking his numbers so the list of the highest rated players "looked right" to him.

If the "eye test" is god ... why bother with the stat?

otoh, if we think a stat is designed to tell us something, why don't we listen to it rather than dismiss it?

And most of all, why do we waste our time looking at regression based stats that aren't accompanied by an error?



Again, this thread is about which stats better tells how good a player is. Most people voted for TS%. It has been proven than TS% is the worst by far.

Last season TS% leaders:

1.
Rudy Gobert • UTA
.682
2.
Dwight Powell • DAL
.682
3.
DeAndre Jordan • TOT
.674
4.
Thomas Bryant • WAS
.674
5.
Clint Capela • HOU
.658
6.
Joe Harris • BRK
.645
7.
Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL
.644
8.
Stephen Curry • GSW
.641
9.
Montrezl Harrell • LAC
.636
10.
JaVale McGee • LAL
.634


It's true that you can't use TS% by itself - like any form of field goal percentage - because guys who only dunk and never take a jumper will always have their shooting percentages inflated.

The stat to use hand in hand with TS% is USG% (Usage percentage I.e. the percentage of team's shots he takes) - and the higher his usg% is the more impressive the TS% is.

So looking at your list there, it's actually quite easy to filter out the guys who just get their points on dunks and putbacks:

Usg%

Giannis 32.3%
Curry 30.4%

Harrell 23.5%

Bryant 17.6%
Powell 17.2%
Gobert 17.1%
Harris 17.0%
Jordan 15.0%

So the two elite guys pop way out on top. Harrell comes way behind them but still a decent usage rate, while the other guys simply aren't relied on to be major scoring options, and are shooting only when wide open.

So yes you're right - TS% is useless unless you factor in usage rate as well. Of course, that's true of any efficiency stat.

The rule is to only make direct TS% comparisons between players with similar scoring usage. Comparing 3rd/4th options with 1st options is useless.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#68 » by JonFromVA » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:03 pm

everdiso wrote:
valrond1 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
I just find it strangely backwards to hold up a stat, rank players by it, then judge whether it's any good by the eye test. I recall Hollinger even ran with this concept with PER tweaking his numbers so the list of the highest rated players "looked right" to him.

If the "eye test" is god ... why bother with the stat?

otoh, if we think a stat is designed to tell us something, why don't we listen to it rather than dismiss it?

And most of all, why do we waste our time looking at regression based stats that aren't accompanied by an error?



Again, this thread is about which stats better tells how good a player is. Most people voted for TS%. It has been proven than TS% is the worst by far.

Last season TS% leaders:

1.
Rudy Gobert • UTA
.682
2.
Dwight Powell • DAL
.682
3.
DeAndre Jordan • TOT
.674
4.
Thomas Bryant • WAS
.674
5.
Clint Capela • HOU
.658
6.
Joe Harris • BRK
.645
7.
Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL
.644
8.
Stephen Curry • GSW
.641
9.
Montrezl Harrell • LAC
.636
10.
JaVale McGee • LAL
.634


It's true that you can't use TS% by itself - like any form of field goal percentage - because guys who only dunk and never take a jumper will always have their shooting percentages inflated.

The stat to use hand in hand with TS% is USG% (Usage percentage I.e. the percentage of team's shots he takes) - and the higher his usg% is the more impressive the TS% is.

So looking at your list there, it's actually quite easy to filter out the guys who just get their points on dunks and putbacks:

Usg%

Giannis 32.3%
Curry 30.4%

Harrell 23.5%

Bryant 17.6%
Powell 17.2%
Gobert 17.1%
Harris 17.0%
Jordan 15.0%

So the two elite guys pop way out on top. Harrell comes way behind them but still a decent usage rate, while the other guys simply aren't relied on to be major scoring options, and are shooting only when wide open.

So yes you're right - TS% is useless unless you factor in usage rate as well. Of course, that's true of any efficiency stat.

The rule is to only make direct TS% comparisons between players with similar scoring usage. Comparing 3rd/4th options with 1st options is useless.


It's only useless if there's no conceivable way to increase one players usg% and decrease the others.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#69 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:39 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
Johnny Bball wrote:PER includes TS% yet apparently half the people don’t know that since they picked TS%, which measures nothing but shooting! I mean if you wanted to only care about offence, you would think that would be the way.

I figure w/s can vary and is done lots of different ways so I’ll take that.

None of them are good alone. With no context. None.


Yes TS% is a very useful stat for judging shooting efficiency. Its far better at what it does then the other stats are at what they do.


I think they all work fine if you understand their limitations. I just don;t think that happens though. for me BPM is the most prone to outliers.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#70 » by JonFromVA » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:58 am

Johnny Bball wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Johnny Bball wrote:PER includes TS% yet apparently half the people don’t know that since they picked TS%, which measures nothing but shooting! I mean if you wanted to only care about offence, you would think that would be the way.

I figure w/s can vary and is done lots of different ways so I’ll take that.

None of them are good alone. With no context. None.


Yes TS% is a very useful stat for judging shooting efficiency. Its far better at what it does then the other stats are at what they do.


I think they all work fine if you understand their limitations. I just don;t think that happens though. for me BPM is the most prone to outliers.


That's the beauty of TS% It's the closest of the bunch to a pure stat. What it's about and what is doing is plain and clear. The others are far more subjective and hence far less trustworthy.
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Re: Better Adv. Stat: TS% vs PER vs VORP vs BPM vs WS 

Post#71 » by LukaV » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:23 pm

Does anyone have any newer articles about real plus-minus advanced stat? I've been reading quite critical articles about it from 2014 (https://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/rpm-and-a-problem-with-advanced-stats , https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/ , https://deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469 ), but haven't found anything newer about it. Thanks!

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