Bradley Beal - Part III

Mojo Amok · Post #1261 » by **Mojo Amok** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:12 pm

I would put "is the first option on a top five offense" front and center within Brad's bag of statistical accomplishments - that means more to me than the individual numbers.

He really has to be towards the top of the heap within the league as being a high volume scorer who other guys can play off of to get into efficient looks. He's so versatile and then seamless moving between the different ways he can hurt you with and without the ball. Most notably, his getting to the cup and finishing there at a high rate just puts so much pressure on the other team to address it that everything just opens up even if it's not Brad himself who registers the assist.

And we don't even have proper chemistry yet with all the new faces.

wall_glizzy · Post #1262 » by **wall_glizzy** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:47 pm

payitforward wrote:I just took a deep dive into Brad's numbers so far this year. So... how is he doing?

...

Good stuff!

If you still have the numbers at hand, is there an easy way to re-run the analysis looking specifically at Brad's performance from after the Wall injury? It seems like a slightly more apt comparison, and I could see it going either way - Brad's time as option 1B at the beginning of last year being a slight drag on his season numbers (making this year's "jump" look slightly larger than it actually is), or an even greater than apparent jump this year if he's getting used to being the man every night.

Post #1263 » by **nate33** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:13 pm

Mojo Amok wrote:I would put "is the first option on a top five offense" front and center within Brad's bag of statistical accomplishments - that means more to me than the individual numbers.

He really has to be towards the top of the heap within the league as being a high volume scorer who other guys can play off of to get into efficient looks. He's so versatile and then seamless moving between the different ways he can hurt you with and without the ball. Most notably, his getting to the cup and finishing there at a high rate just puts so much pressure on the other team to address it that everything just opens up even if it's not Brad himself who registers the assist.

And we don't even have proper chemistry yet with all the new faces.

Yeah. The amazing thing is that Beal is in the midst of a shooting slump!

Illmatic12 · Post #1264 » by **Illmatic12** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:49 pm

Mojo Amok wrote:I would put "is the first option on a top five offense" front and center within Brad's bag of statistical accomplishments - that means more to me than the individual numbers.

He really has to be towards the top of the heap within the league as being a high volume scorer who other guys can play off of to get into efficient looks. He's so versatile and then seamless moving between the different ways he can hurt you with and without the ball. Most notably, his getting to the cup and finishing there at a high rate just puts so much pressure on the other team to address it that everything just opens up even if it's not Brad himself who registers the assist.

And we don't even have proper chemistry yet with all the new faces.

Yeah at this point the sample size is getting larger - Wizards had the #7 offense last year after the Wall injury + Porter/KO trades . Beal is showing he can lead an elite high-powered offense in this league, as long as he has shooters and a PnR partner.

He's also already proven himself in the playoffs from a young age. His resume is starting to track almost exactly like prime Ray Allen in his Supersonics years (those George Karl teams had top 3 offense)

Post #1265 » by **nate33** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:56 pm

Beal at age 26 versus Harden at age 26:

If Beal gets his 3P% back up to career norms, this is a damn close comparison. Harden has better advanced numbers thanks to his rebounding, most of which he gets by not guarding his man.

FAH1223 · Post #1266 » by **FAH1223** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:04 pm

Read on Twitter

keynote · Post #1267 » by **keynote** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:42 pm

I remember bemoaning the fact that while Beal was a reliable shooter, he didn't have sufficient "wiggle" in his game to be an effective iso scorer or FT generator. It's remarkable to see how far he's come as a slasher since he entered the league.

I could be wrong, but it seems like most scoring guards develop the other way around -- they can get to the rim, but they don't quite have the 3PT range. Shooters who aren't effective slashers tend to remain that way, no?

tontoz · Post #1268 » by **tontoz** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:48 pm

keynote wrote:I remember bemoaning the fact that while Beal was a reliable shooter, he didn't have sufficient "wiggle" in his game to be an effective iso scorer or FT generator. It's remarkable to see how far he's come as a slasher since he entered the league.

I could be wrong, but it seems like most scoring guards develop the other way around -- they can get to the rim, but they don't quite have the 3PT range. Shooters who aren't effective slashers tend to remain that way, no?

There may be another factor here. In his rookie year he was trying to dunk on the wrong guys (Josh Smith, Ibaka, etc) and got punk'd, taking some hard falls. He also had some injury issues on his rookie contract.

It could be that he was a bit reluctant to drive, risking an injury which could hurt his chances of signing a big deal. After signing a max deal it seemed like he got more aggressive taking it to the rim.

Post #1269 » by **nate33** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:21 am

tontoz wrote:
keynote wrote:I remember bemoaning the fact that while Beal was a reliable shooter, he didn't have sufficient "wiggle" in his game to be an effective iso scorer or FT generator. It's remarkable to see how far he's come as a slasher since he entered the league.

I could be wrong, but it seems like most scoring guards develop the other way around -- they can get to the rim, but they don't quite have the 3PT range. Shooters who aren't effective slashers tend to remain that way, no?

There may be another factor here. In his rookie year he was trying to dunk on the wrong guys (Josh Smith, Ibaka, etc) and got punk'd, taking some hard falls. He also had some injury issues on his rookie contract.

It could be that he was a bit reluctant to drive, risking an injury which could hurt his chances of signing a big deal. After signing a max deal it seemed like he got more aggressive taking it to the rim.

I agree with keynote. The development of Beal's dribble drive game is really remarkable, not something we often see in the NBA.

When Beal came into the league, he could barely dribble.

BearlyBallin · Post #1270 » by **BearlyBallin** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:30 am

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Congratulations Mr. Beal!
:clap:

tontoz · Post #1271 » by **tontoz** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:18 pm

Over the last 3 games Beal is averaging 40.6/8 with a TS of 72%.

It isn't just about the numbers either. The leadership he is showing is obvious.

Post #1272 » by **nate33** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:43 pm

Beal is currently averaging 30.1 points per game, second in the league.

He is also averaging 6.9 assists per game, which is 15th in the league.

Post #1273 » by **nate33** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:28 pm

nate33 wrote:Beal is currently averaging 30.1 points per game, second in the league.

He is also averaging 6.9 assists per game, which is 15th in the league.

And despite the bad shooting, he is posting a TS% of .573, which is totally respectable. Ignore his horrific 1st game and he is averaging 31.4 points on a TS% of .597 and hitting 36.5% of his 3's!

Post #1274 » by **Ruzious** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:38 pm

tontoz wrote:Over the last 3 games Beal is averaging 40.6/8 with a TS of 72%.

It isn't just about the numbers either. The leadership he is showing is obvious.

If it wasn't for that great play by Fultz near the end, last night could have been his best game of the 3 - not statistically but as far as just putting the team on his back. It'll be interesting see how Fultz does going forward. That was a superstar play by him.

payitforward · Post #1275 » by **payitforward** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:30 pm

wall_glizzy wrote:
payitforward wrote:I just took a deep dive into Brad's numbers so far this year. So... how is he doing?
...Good stuff!

If you still have the numbers at hand, is there an easy way to re-run the analysis looking specifically at Brad's performance from after the Wall injury? It seems like a slightly more apt comparison, and I could see it going either way - Brad's time as option 1B at the beginning of last year being a slight drag on his season numbers (making this year's "jump" look slightly larger than it actually is), or an even greater than apparent jump this year if he's getting used to being the man every night.

Keep in mind that last year was Brad's best year. Wall played 1100 minutes.

The previous year, 2017-18, had been a decline year. Wall played 1400 minutes.

2016-17 had been his best year by far up to that point. Wall played over 2800 minutes.

IOW, trying to find a connection between Beal being at his best & Wall being out... no. That's futile.

Note as well that I said that as his 3 pt. % returned to his mean, we'd see that he'd made another jump. He played 40 minutes last night, 10% of his season so far, & went 5-10 on 3's, which brought his 3pt. % up almost 2 percentage points.

All the same, to this point, he's a little down from last year overall -- entirely b/c of shooting woes early in the season. If he keeps putting up numbers at the level he did last night (let alone the previous game!), he'll eclipse last year fairly easily.

DCZards · Post #1276 » by **DCZards** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:33 pm

Ruzious wrote:
tontoz wrote:Over the last 3 games Beal is averaging 40.6/8 with a TS of 72%.

It isn't just about the numbers either. The leadership he is showing is obvious.

If it wasn't for that great play by Fultz near the end, last night could have been his best game of the 3 - not statistically but as far as just putting the team on his back. It'll be interesting see how Fultz does going forward. That was a superstar play by him.

Not to take anything away from Fultz, who had his best game of the season last night (maybe his career) but that pass he stole was not a superstar play. It was a bad decision by Brad, who should have taken the layup.

Post #1277 » by **Ruzious** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:37 pm

DCZards wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
tontoz wrote:Over the last 3 games Beal is averaging 40.6/8 with a TS of 72%.

It isn't just about the numbers either. The leadership he is showing is obvious.

If it wasn't for that great play by Fultz near the end, last night could have been his best game of the 3 - not statistically but as far as just putting the team on his back. It'll be interesting see how Fultz does going forward. That was a superstar play by him.

Not to take anything away from Fultz, who had his best game of the season last night (maybe his career) but that pass he stole was a bad decision by Brad...and not a superstar play by Fultz. BB should have taken the layup.

Nah - at least not the way I saw it. There was a defender coming up that had a good angle on Brad. It was a great play by Fultz, because he anticipated it and got a jump on it. Then his length and athleticism made it look a lot easier than it was. It was a phenominal play, imo.

jangles86 · Post #1278 » by **jangles86** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:03 pm

Trade him. Set up the future of the franchise.

Illmatic12 · Post #1279 » by **Illmatic12** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:14 pm

jangles86 wrote:Trade him. Set up the future of the franchise.

Did I stumble in the Ian Mahinmi thread? Damn!

Post #1280 » by **nate33** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:38 pm

jangles86 wrote:Trade him. Set up the future of the franchise.

Easier said than done. I'm open to trading Beal just as I'm open to trading anybody. But you find me a deal that gives us a fair value for a 26 year old All-NBA caliber player.

The problem is, the teams in win now mode that want him don't have the assets to get him.