A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet)

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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#241 » by Bob8 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:28 pm

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Lol. I already showed you his RAPM from last year, which was negative. The “advanced stats” you’re referring to literally just try to approximate RAPM over smaller sample sizes, and use arbitrary weighting systems of box stats to accomplish that. I don’t think you understand the methodology, which is why you fundamentally confused what the stats I used were indicating and lumped all “advanced stats” together as objective measures of player value. Worse yet, you’ve done so in a way that implies you know what you’re talking about and I don’t. Coming from someone who knows a great deal about what I’m talking about, it’s easy to see through your charade and flawed grasp of the material.


Who’s talking about last year? Last year Luka was rookie and maybe even more important all other 4 starters were traded in January. I’m sure he will be positive this year. It’s funny how you talking about objective measures, while you have used 10 games of +/- to make some big conclusions, which is in total opposition of what has been seen on the court. If you have waited at least to get some more data, I would have gave you a benefit of the doubt. But you was just to eager and run directly on GB to show your brilliance and **** on 20 years old player with 10 games data. You have lost all credibility with that move.


“Who’s talking about last year?” —> Did you read the OP?

He was ranked #20 based on his performance last year. The vast majority of the data I interpreted was from last year. The fact that he is double negative 11 games into the season was merely used to sweeten the argument.


You’re saying that your analysis discovered that he wasn’t a star last year? If I remember right you used present tense. You expected that rookie carries a bad team, which became one of the worst teams after 4 starters were traded, Barrea got injured and KP not playing all season? Even prime LeBron couldn’t carry that team. And even now you’re using against him last rookie season, with all trades and injuries and saying he’s not positive player for the Mavs, mostly because of last season data? This look fair approach to you?
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#242 » by Bob8 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:29 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Lol. I already showed you his RAPM from last year, which was negative. The “advanced stats” you’re referring to literally just try to approximate RAPM over smaller sample sizes, and use arbitrary weighting systems of box stats to accomplish that. I don’t think you understand the methodology, which is why you fundamentally confused what the stats I used were indicating and lumped all “advanced stats” together as objective measures of player value. Worse yet, you’ve done so in a way that implies you know what you’re talking about and I don’t. Coming from someone who knows a great deal about what I’m talking about, it’s easy to see through your charade and flawed grasp of the material.


Who’s talking about last year? Last year Luka was rookie and maybe even more important all other 4 starters were traded in January. I’m sure he will be positive this year. It’s funny how you talking about objective measures, while you have used 10 games of +/- to make some big conclusions, which is in total opposition of what has been seen on the court. If you have waited at least to get some more data, I would have gave you a benefit of the doubt. But you was just to eager and run directly on GB to show your brilliance and **** on 20 years old player with 10 games data. You have lost all credibility with that move.


“Who’s talking about last year?” —> Did you read the OP?

He was ranked #20 based on his performance last year. The vast majority of the data I interpreted was from last year. The fact that he is double negative 11 games into the season was merely used to sweeten the argument.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#243 » by Bob8 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:48 am

Sactowndog wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Sactowndog wrote:
He is not using plus minus alone. He has a matrix and Luka is alone among the top 50 players in the negative / negative box. Those are factual statements to which he asked why Mav’s fans thought it was true.

Saying Luka is a net negative player is an opinion that might be supported by the above facts and contradicted by others. Being unwilling to opine from those two factual statements is not a contradiction. It is merely looking for more evidence before stating an opinion.


But what then means that negative/negative box? Being outscored and less efficient than your teammates? What this make you?

Btw, did you look who is in SI top 60 and what season they have? Luka alone being in that box should ring alarms in OP’s head, that something unusual is with this data and that’s not Luka not being a star.


You sound like too many Americans. My opinion must be true therefore your facts are wrong because I can’t square them with my opinion.


I have a problem, who should I believe now? Raptor, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ or Op’s?
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#244 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:15 am

Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Who’s talking about last year? Last year Luka was rookie and maybe even more important all other 4 starters were traded in January. I’m sure he will be positive this year. It’s funny how you talking about objective measures, while you have used 10 games of +/- to make some big conclusions, which is in total opposition of what has been seen on the court. If you have waited at least to get some more data, I would have gave you a benefit of the doubt. But you was just to eager and run directly on GB to show your brilliance and **** on 20 years old player with 10 games data. You have lost all credibility with that move.


“Who’s talking about last year?” —> Did you read the OP?

He was ranked #20 based on his performance last year. The vast majority of the data I interpreted was from last year. The fact that he is double negative 11 games into the season was merely used to sweeten the argument.


You’re saying that your analysis discovered that he wasn’t a star last year? If I remember right you used present tense. You expected that rookie carries a bad team, which became one of the worst teams after 4 starters were traded, Barrea got injured and KP not playing all season? Even prime LeBron couldn’t carry that team. And even now you’re using against him last rookie season, with all trades and injuries and saying he’s not positive player for the Mavs, mostly because of last season data? This look fair approach to you?


Compounding data my friend. We have a full season + 11 games which indicate the same trend. Rookie LeBron did have a positive on/off, so...

Bob8 wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/


RAPTOR sucks, but that's beside the point. You spent most of this thread fighting a straw man about all-encompassing stats, and now you're trying to use those same stats :lol: Unlike the stats I used, RAPTOR does not give us tangible information to work with. So in this case I could use the argument that "your stat thinks Will Barton is a top 3 player so obviously it's wrong!" and that argument would hold. But again, I'm not convinced you know how to interpret any of these advanced metrics. So this feels like an exercise in futility.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#245 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:16 am

LukaV wrote:As long as we're relying on box-score based stats


We're not. I'm relying on iterations of +/- which is pretty much the opposite of box-based stats. Impact versus production.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#246 » by Bob8 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:22 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
“Who’s talking about last year?” —> Did you read the OP?

He was ranked #20 based on his performance last year. The vast majority of the data I interpreted was from last year. The fact that he is double negative 11 games into the season was merely used to sweeten the argument.


You’re saying that your analysis discovered that he wasn’t a star last year? If I remember right you used present tense. You expected that rookie carries a bad team, which became one of the worst teams after 4 starters were traded, Barrea got injured and KP not playing all season? Even prime LeBron couldn’t carry that team. And even now you’re using against him last rookie season, with all trades and injuries and saying he’s not positive player for the Mavs, mostly because of last season data? This look fair approach to you?


Compounding data my friend. We have a full season + 11 games which indicate the same trend. Rookie LeBron did have a positive on/off, so...

Bob8 wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/


RAPTOR sucks, but that's beside the point. You spent most of this thread fighting a straw man about all-encompassing stats, and now you're trying to use those same stats :lol: Unlike the stats I used, RAPTOR does not give us tangible information to work with. So in this case I could use the argument that "your stat thinks Will Barton is a top 3 player so obviously it's wrong!" and that argument would hold. But again, I'm not convinced you know how to interpret any of these advanced metrics. So this feels like an exercise in futility.


You have rookie season on the team without 4 starters. Luka basically played half a season with a bench unit and his stats suffered a lot that time.

So we slowly and surely coming to personal level? Are you really feel that insecure?

Raptor might suck or not, I couldn’t say because I cannot interpret anything. ;) But I can ask you, which is Mavs best player by your superior metrics?
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#247 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:23 am

Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
You’re saying that your analysis discovered that he wasn’t a star last year? If I remember right you used present tense. You expected that rookie carries a bad team, which became one of the worst teams after 4 starters were traded, Barrea got injured and KP not playing all season? Even prime LeBron couldn’t carry that team. And even now you’re using against him last rookie season, with all trades and injuries and saying he’s not positive player for the Mavs, mostly because of last season data? This look fair approach to you?


Compounding data my friend. We have a full season + 11 games which indicate the same trend. Rookie LeBron did have a positive on/off, so...

Bob8 wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/


RAPTOR sucks, but that's beside the point. You spent most of this thread fighting a straw man about all-encompassing stats, and now you're trying to use those same stats :lol: Unlike the stats I used, RAPTOR does not give us tangible information to work with. So in this case I could use the argument that "your stat thinks Will Barton is a top 3 player so obviously it's wrong!" and that argument would hold. But again, I'm not convinced you know how to interpret any of these advanced metrics. So this feels like an exercise in futility.


So we slowly and surely coming to personal level? Are you really feel that insecure?

Raptor might suck or not, I couldn’t say because I cannot interpret anything. ;) But I can ask you, which is Mavs best player by your superior metrics?


It's not personal if we are debating about the very data you don't understand :roll: If anyone's insecurity has been showing in this thread, it ain't mine.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#248 » by Bob8 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:26 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Compounding data my friend. We have a full season + 11 games which indicate the same trend. Rookie LeBron did have a positive on/off, so...



RAPTOR sucks, but that's beside the point. You spent most of this thread fighting a straw man about all-encompassing stats, and now you're trying to use those same stats :lol: Unlike the stats I used, RAPTOR does not give us tangible information to work with. So in this case I could use the argument that "your stat thinks Will Barton is a top 3 player so obviously it's wrong!" and that argument would hold. But again, I'm not convinced you know how to interpret any of these advanced metrics. So this feels like an exercise in futility.


So we slowly and surely coming to personal level? Are you really feel that insecure?

Raptor might suck or not, I couldn’t say because I cannot interpret anything. ;) But I can ask you, which is Mavs best player by your superior metrics?


It's not personal if we are debating about the very data you don't understand :roll: If anyone's insecurity has been showing in this thread, it ain't mine.


Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#249 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:34 am

Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
So we slowly and surely coming to personal level? Are you really feel that insecure?

Raptor might suck or not, I couldn’t say because I cannot interpret anything. ;) But I can ask you, which is Mavs best player by your superior metrics?


It's not personal if we are debating about the very data you don't understand :roll: If anyone's insecurity has been showing in this thread, it ain't mine.


Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?


The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#250 » by Bob8 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:39 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
It's not personal if we are debating about the very data you don't understand :roll: If anyone's insecurity has been showing in this thread, it ain't mine.


Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?


The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.


Lol

It’s best that we end this conversation. I apparently don’t know nothing about stats, even though I’m using them for my living and you not just apparently but surely don’t know much about Mavs.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#251 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:41 am

Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?


The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.


Lol

It’s best that we end this conversation. I apparently don’t know nothing about stats, even though I’m using them for my living and you not just apparently but surely don’t know much about Mavs.


Lol is right. Consider the conversation ended.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#252 » by VanWest82 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:42 am

Watching Raps @ Mavs. Luka is unbelievable. This thread is a joke. Sorry GeorgeMarcus. That is all.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#253 » by Pg81 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:23 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
It's not personal if we are debating about the very data you don't understand :roll: If anyone's insecurity has been showing in this thread, it ain't mine.


Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?


The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.


:crazy:
By far the worst hot take I have read or listen to about Luka. Are you working together with Skip or Stephen A by chance? No wait, even their hot takes are better.
If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#254 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:32 am

Pg81 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Which data I don’t understand? +/- or your innovative interpretations? Can you please answer my question, which is Mavs best player by your metrics?


The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.


:crazy:
By far the worst hot take I have read or listen to about Luka. Are you working together with Skip or Stephen A by chance? No wait, even their hot takes are better.


Pretty much the opposite of a Skip Baylee’s take. Impact is different from talent level and aesthetic.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#255 » by Pg81 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:34 am

Way to miss the point, as usual it seems. Good job.
If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#256 » by SF_Warriors » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:32 am

KD had a negative on off 4 out of 5 of his first seasons..one of which they won 55 games and made the wcfs..one was in a shortened lockout season where okc had the third best record at the end of the regular season. Same goes for wesrbrook both of those seasons.

Are we to believe the two leading scorers of a 55 win team for example were not impactful players? Harden off the bench may have been a factor there. Does harden playing well off the bench against bench units for whatever reason make KD a less effective player?
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#257 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:38 am

SF_Warriors wrote:KD had a negative on off 4 out of 5 of his first seasons..one of which they won 55 games and made the wcfs..one was in a shortened lockout season where okc had the third best record at the end of the regular season. Same goes for wesrbrook both of those seasons.

Are we to believe the two leading scorers of a 55 win team for example were not impactful players or not as impactful as their raw numbers suggests?


You mean 2 seasons? He was wildly positive by season 3. Generally volume scorers who are getting acclimated to the league do not provide positive impact right away.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#258 » by SF_Warriors » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:40 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:KD had a negative on off 4 out of 5 of his first seasons..one of which they won 55 games and made the wcfs..one was in a shortened lockout season where okc had the third best record at the end of the regular season. Same goes for wesrbrook both of those seasons.

Are we to believe the two leading scorers of a 55 win team for example were not impactful players or not as impactful as their raw numbers suggests?


You mean 2 seasons? He was wildly positive by season 3. Generally volume scorers who are getting acclimated to the league do not provide positive impact right away.


4th and 5th seasons..KD had negative on off

What I am trying to say is on off and impact may be correlated, but using it while disregarding other stats showing otherwise can lead to poor analysis.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#259 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:48 am

SF_Warriors wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:KD had a negative on off 4 out of 5 of his first seasons..one of which they won 55 games and made the wcfs..one was in a shortened lockout season where okc had the third best record at the end of the regular season. Same goes for wesrbrook both of those seasons.

Are we to believe the two leading scorers of a 55 win team for example were not impactful players or not as impactful as their raw numbers suggests?


You mean 2 seasons? He was wildly positive by season 3. Generally volume scorers who are getting acclimated to the league do not provide positive impact right away.


4th and 5th seasons..KD had negative on off

What I am trying to say is on off and impact may be correlated, but using it while disregarding other stats showing otherwise can lead to poor analysis.


That's not true; 4th season his on/off was -0.6 and 5th season it was +1.9. This thread was about using on-court and on/off in conjunction though, and KD was +4.0 and +7.1 on-court during those seasons. So not the same thing. I never have and never would rate players strictly on on/off.
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Re: A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet) 

Post#260 » by juju14 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:42 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
Pg81 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
The very question you're asking doesn't make sense based on the very long/very repetitive conversation we've already had about the stats. If you're asking me who the Mavs best player is, I'd say Luka. A guy like Delon Wright probably rivals his impact though at this stage in his career. KP may as well if he gets his **** together.


:crazy:
By far the worst hot take I have read or listen to about Luka. Are you working together with Skip or Stephen A by chance? No wait, even their hot takes are better.


Pretty much the opposite of a Skip Baylee’s take. Impact is different from talent level and aesthetic.

Skip was literally criticizing Luka today. This thread is a joke.

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