OT Bears 2019/20 season and beyond

[dougthonus]

Thank You!!! This is ALL that I am trying to say. Want to move on from Mitch?? Fine. Just don’t be surprised when we continue to have many of the same issues.

If Mitch was a superstar caliber QB, then the Bears would be super bowl contenders. If you changed any other one player/coach on this team to a superstar version of themselves then that same statement probably isn't true.

I agree that the offensive line wasn't great and the receives aren't great, nor is the running game great. Lots of problems all around for sure, and Nagy may also be poor (I'm not convinced on that one yet, he looked amazing last year, and I don't think his calls have been bad on aggregate as much as the execution has been, but hard to say with such bad execution).

However, fixing like 5 other problems on offense collectively would have about the same impact as fixing the one at QB. QB has a disproportionately large impact on the game relative to all other positions. The Bears have enough to be legit superbowl contenders if they had top 5 QB performance in the NFL (which is typically a prerequisite of most superbowl winning teams).

Obviously this is no different than saying the Bulls need to replace Zach LaVine with a superstar as their #1 option. I mean sure that's obvious, but there's no simple way to do it (and in basketball you can add good players and bump everyone down easier since it isn't direct replacements but I digress).

Like every team in the NFL, the Bears are trying to find a franchise QB. They took their shot with Mitch and missed. Those are the breaks sometimes. I agree with people saying we need to replace Mitch and agree with you that there are other faults that can be improved. The Bears will likely have an easier time doing what you want (incremental improvements in other areas) than finding a franchise QB, but those incremental improvements may not move the needle enough.

Either way, like most fan type complaints, a lot of it is shouting into the wind. I'm sure Pace recognizes the problems, but he has no immediate way to fix them. Sometimes it can take years to fix these things even if you are good enough and lucky enough to get the opportunity.

[TheStig]

Mitch may or may not be salavageable but the Bears really need to explore other options. I think they have to go hard after Cam or Rivers in the offseason. The defense will only be really good for another 2-3 years and you can't wait for Mitch to step up. Either he can beat out Cam or Rivers or he sits and learns. He is very raw.

[dougthonus]

Mitch may or may not be salavageable but the Bears really need to explore other options. I think they have to go hard after Cam or Rivers in the offseason. The defense will only be really good for another 2-3 years and you can't wait for Mitch to step up. Either he can beat out Cam or Rivers or he sits and learns. He is very raw.

Not sure if the Bears can really free up enough cap to do make a meaningful run at either guy and fill out the roster. I'm not really a football cap expert, but when I looked it didn't seem like they had much room.

[TheStig]

Mitch may or may not be salavageable but the Bears really need to explore other options. I think they have to go hard after Cam or Rivers in the offseason. The defense will only be really good for another 2-3 years and you can't wait for Mitch to step up. Either he can beat out Cam or Rivers or he sits and learns. He is very raw.

Not sure if the Bears can really free up enough cap to do make a meaningful run at either guy and fill out the roster. I'm not really a football cap expert, but when I looked it didn't seem like they had much room.

I'm sure you can restructure some deals. It's not like basketball. Cam also isn't making huge money.

[Betta Bulleavit]

Thank You!!! This is ALL that I am trying to say. Want to move on from Mitch?? Fine. Just don’t be surprised when we continue to have many of the same issues.

If Mitch was a superstar caliber QB, then the Bears would be super bowl contenders. If you changed any other one player/coach on this team to a superstar version of themselves then that same statement probably isn't true.

I agree that the offensive line wasn't great and the receives aren't great, nor is the running game great. Lots of problems all around for sure, and Nagy may also be poor (I'm not convinced on that one yet, he looked amazing last year, and I don't think his calls have been bad on aggregate as much as the execution has been, but hard to say with such bad execution).

However, fixing like 5 other problems on offense collectively would have about the same impact as fixing the one at QB. QB has a disproportionately large impact on the game relative to all other positions. The Bears have enough to be legit superbowl contenders if they had top 5 QB performance in the NFL (which is typically a prerequisite of most superbowl winning teams).

Obviously this is no different than saying the Bulls need to replace Zach LaVine with a superstar as their #1 option. I mean sure that's obvious, but there's no simple way to do it (and in basketball you can add good players and bump everyone down easier since it isn't direct replacements but I digress).

Like every team in the NFL, the Bears are trying to find a franchise QB. They took their shot with Mitch and missed. Those are the breaks sometimes. I agree with people saying we need to replace Mitch and agree with you that there are other faults that can be improved. The Bears will likely have an easier time doing what you want (incremental improvements in other areas) than finding a franchise QB, but those incremental improvements may not move the needle enough.

Either way, like most fan type complaints, a lot of it is shouting into the wind. I'm sure Pace recognizes the problems, but he has no immediate way to fix them. Sometimes it can take years to fix these things even if you are good enough and lucky enough to get the opportunity.

I can’t say that I disagree with any of this. A superstar caliber QB can be the answer to a lot of problems. There are times when I question whether or not the circumstances stunted his growth a bit. But that just comes off as excuse making. So I will just say that we’ve seen some good QBs struggle in bad situations. I think Mitch is all but done here. I do hope that he can grow in a different situation though because he seems like a good dude.

[dougthonus]

I'm sure you can restructure some deals. It's not like basketball. Cam also isn't making huge money.

I wouldn't say "I'm sure you can do ...." unless you are sure because you have looked and know it can be done. There's more flexibility in some ways and less in others.

Not sure what Cam's market will be next year, maybe I'm anchored in the past, but I would think he's signing for above average starter money which is probably 25m or more I'd think. Not a football salary expert though.

[Betta Bulleavit]

I'm sure you can restructure some deals. It's not like basketball. Cam also isn't making huge money.

I wouldn't say "I'm sure you can do ...." unless you are sure because you have looked and know it can be done. There's more flexibility in some ways and less in others.

Not sure what Cam's market will be next year, maybe I'm anchored in the past, but I would think he's signing for above average starter money which is probably 25m or more I'd think. Not a football salary expert though.

From what I’ve gathered, it’s fairly straightforward. Team approached player X on a 5yr/100M deal on year two. They ask that player to convert 10M of their salary for the upcoming year into a signing bonus. The player is still getting the same 20M that they were set to get from the start. But for cap purposes, the signing bonus is prorated over 4 years. So instead of Player X having a 20M cap it, it will only be a 12.5M hit with the rest being prorated over the life is the contract. The draw back is that it increases the cap hit in later years.

[dougthonus]

From what I’ve gathered, it’s fairly straightforward. Team approached player X on a 5yr/100M deal on year two. They ask that player to convert 10M of their salary for the upcoming year into a signing bonus. The player is still getting the same 20M that they were set to get from the start. But for cap purposes, the signing bonus is prorated over 4 years. So instead of Player X having a 20M cap it, it will only be a 12.5M hit with the rest being prorated over the life is the contract. The draw back is that it increases the cap hit in later years.

Makes sense. You also account for guaranteed money too and have to account for all the money you've already used this trick on with other players in past years that are now counting extra on your cap this up coming year. I'd assume Mack is one such guy, not sure if there are others.

I'm absolutely not saying it isn't possible (or perhaps even really easy and obvious) just saying if you haven't run the numbers I wouldn't just assume that the Bears have enough flexibility to do that. They may be on the hook for past deals or need to replace too many people on the roster so that with these types of moves they're left with massive holes everywhere or something else.

[HearshotKDS]

Mitch has been awful this season, last night included, but good advice is don't pay attention to anyone dumb enough to analyze open receivers on the broadcast view. If you don't got the All-22 Film you can't see the DBs, and are just pissing into the wind with "analysis". With that said, once the all-22 comes out I'm sure there will be a bunch of missed opportunities.

[jacoby1us]

It’s obvious Trubisky is a backup QB at best. If the Bears want to salvage the talent and opportunity they have now in order to compete in the NEAR future, they must find a real starting QB who can move and score the ball.

[dice]

i don't dispute that mahomes is smarter than trubisky

We only ranked Trubisky higher than Mahomes bc Trubisky fits the Brees type better, aka his white skin and clean cut soldier boy franchise face.

that's a complete wild guess on your part with absolutely nothing to back it up. once again, almost EVERYBODY had trubisky higher. are ALL football analysts racist?

Yes I would argue that the majority of football analysts when it comes to QB prospect are prejudiced with racism resulting in high bust ratio. Too often do we hear from scouting reports about a white Qb being accurate, calm, poise, leader, winner, pocket passer, and intelligent whereas a black QB being fast, inaccurate, and bad at reading NFL defenses.

except that there are just as many black QBs drafted highly that bust. why are you ignoring this?

If you read the Mahomes scouting report, it’s the same bull while his skill set is more along Favre/ Rodger than being an athletic black athlete. He reads the defense and reacts significantly better to changes than Trubisky at the college level.

except that he didn't. because, you know, their QB ratings were the same. in fact, the book on mahomes was that he was a bit undisciplined because he threw it all over the yard. which, if you actually watched him, was exactly true. big arm, wild gunslinger. he was the brett favre of college football. favre succeeded in the league after a slow start, mahomes is doing the same after sitting his rookie year. presumably the structure did him good

Just bc the entire league is prejudiced against black QBs doesn’t mean that Ryan Pace, his staff, and the racism permeating from our management people should be brushed aside. We are in the business of making the right decisions and winning football games.

your entire analysis is based on a single player who happens to be white looking like a bust. your analysis is what is blatantly racist. not the bears management and coaching staff

you weren't making these racist claims last season. total monday morning quarterbacking on your part

the bears had a black HEAD COACH not too long ago, for christ's sake. for several years. that's less common than black QBs

Their racism and poor evaluations have led to an accumulation of busts at an unacceptable level. Everyone needs to go.

[/quote]
so then they'll bring in another racist staff, right? because the whole league is racist, remember? what's the point? the whole staff would have to be black to shut you up

[Dresden]

Mitch has been awful this season, last night included, but good advice is don't pay attention to anyone dumb enough to analyze open receivers on the broadcast view. If you don't got the All-22 Film you can't see the DBs, and are just pissing into the wind with "analysis". With that said, once the all-22 comes out I'm sure there will be a bunch of missed opportunities.

What really caught my attention was that on three straight drives in the 4th quarter, down just a score, they were faced with a third down situation, and in each instance, Mitch didn't come even close to completing a pass. On two of them, it looked like he was on the wrong page with his receivers, and threw long when they went short, or vice versa. And on the third one, he just threw it into the ground when the play wasn't there. Those were all huge downs, when the game still was in balance, and he failed miserably on each one. You just can't keep expecting your defense to bail you out time after time.

I would not be surprised to see all of our offensive players look a lot better with a new QB. Last year, the receivers were fine and the O line was highly rated. Obviously, they need a tight end or two, and probably a lineman or two. And maybe David Montgomery is not as good as everyone thought he was. But again, a good qb might fix a lot of those issues.

[MeloRoseNoah]

i don't dispute that mahomes is smarter than trubisky


that's a complete wild guess on your part with absolutely nothing to back it up. once again, almost EVERYBODY had trubisky higher. are ALL football analysts racist?

Yes I would argue that the majority of football analysts when it comes to QB prospect are prejudiced with racism resulting in high bust ratio. Too often do we hear from scouting reports about a white Qb being accurate, calm, poise, leader, winner, pocket passer, and intelligent whereas a black QB being fast, inaccurate, and bad at reading NFL defenses.

except that there are just as many black QBs drafted highly that bust. why are you ignoring this?

If you read the Mahomes scouting report, it’s the same bull while his skill set is more along Favre/ Rodger than being an athletic black athlete. He reads the defense and reacts significantly better to changes than Trubisky at the college level.

except that he didn't. because, you know, their QB ratings were the same. in fact, the book on mahomes was that he was a bit undisciplined because he threw it all over the yard. which, if you actually watched him, was exactly true. big arm, wild gunslinger. he was the brett favre of college football. favre succeeded in the league after a slow start, mahomes is doing the same after sitting his rookie year. presumably the structure did him good

Just bc the entire league is prejudiced against black QBs doesn’t mean that Ryan Pace, his staff, and the racism permeating from our management people should be brushed aside. We are in the business of making the right decisions and winning football games.

your entire analysis is based on a single player who happens to be white looking like a bust. your analysis is what is blatantly racist. not the bears management and coaching staff

you weren't making these racist claims last season. total monday morning quarterbacking on your part

the bears had a black HEAD COACH not too long ago, for christ's sake. for several years. that's less common than black QBs

Their racism and poor evaluations have led to an accumulation of busts at an unacceptable level. Everyone needs to go.

so then they'll bring in another racist staff, right? because the whole league is racist, remember? what's the point? the whole staff would have to be black to shut you up[/quote]

They didn't even interview Deshaun Watson. There's only one possible reason. He's too dark and dumb for Ryan Pace. The only reason why Pace even bothers to look at Mahomes is probably bc he's only 50% black, but he still opts for the White Captain American QB look in the end.

I'm not saying that the Bears organization has racial prejudice. Ryan Pace has racial prejudice against black QBs.

[dice]

Last year, the receivers were fine and the O line was highly rated.

and their QB was mitch trubisky

the O-line has clearly deteriorated this season. and the wide receiver core was mediocre to begin with. the lack of a running game is certainly not on mitch to any large degree

the unspoken part of this is that trubisky hasn't have a lot to work with

[dice]

I'm not saying that the Bears organization has racial prejudice. Ryan Pace has racial prejudice against black QBs.

again based on a single data point. and for all we know pace was just over-reliant on a scout that he trusted. or wasn't bold enough to override EVERYONE ELSE'S OPINION THAT TRUBISKY WAS THE BEST PROSPECT. I'm sorry, but singling out ryan pace for racism is preposterous

did you seriously say that they brought in mahomes because he isn't as dark as watson?

[dice]

From what I’ve gathered, it’s fairly straightforward. Team approached player X on a 5yr/100M deal on year two. They ask that player to convert 10M of their salary for the upcoming year into a signing bonus. The player is still getting the same 20M that they were set to get from the start. But for cap purposes, the signing bonus is prorated over 4 years. So instead of Player X having a 20M cap it, it will only be a 12.5M hit with the rest being prorated over the life is the contract. The draw back is that it increases the cap hit in later years.

Makes sense. You also account for guaranteed money too and have to account for all the money you've already used this trick on with other players in past years that are now counting extra on your cap this up coming year. I'd assume Mack is one such guy, not sure if there are others.

I'm absolutely not saying it isn't possible (or perhaps even really easy and obvious) just saying if you haven't run the numbers I wouldn't just assume that the Bears have enough flexibility to do that. They may be on the hook for past deals or need to replace too many people on the roster so that with these types of moves they're left with massive holes everywhere or something else.

they already have backloaded a number of deals in order to contend this season. which means that a number of players are seeing their salaries spike next season (particularly mack). you can only go to the well so many times. and at this point I don't think the team is good enough to warrant continuing to mortgage the future

[dice]

However, fixing like 5 other problems on offense collectively would have about the same impact as fixing the one at QB. QB has a disproportionately large impact on the game relative to all other positions. The Bears have enough to be legit superbowl contenders if they had top 5 QB performance in the NFL (which is typically a prerequisite of most superbowl winning teams).

it's fairly common sense that the QB has a substantially disproportionately impact. but how much more? well, we have a couple of pretty good data points in tom brady and aaron rodgers. patriots and packers offensive efficiencies since 2001 under their star QBs:

pats/pack

11 x
9 x
14 x
3 x
7 x
4 x
1 x
7 11
1 5
1 7
3 1
1 3
4 9
6 1
5 11
2 4
1 15
5 7
11 6

not once in their careers have either led a below average offense. and both have had wildly variable supporting casts. which would seem to indicate that the QB has more of an impact on an offense's performance than the 10 other positions on the field COMBINED (11 if you include kicker)

[dougthonus]

they already have backloaded a number of deals in order to contend this season. which means that a number of players are seeing their salaries spike next season (particularly mack). you can only go to the well so many times. and at this point I don't think the team is good enough to warrant continuing to mortgage the future

Watching how good the defense seems to largely be, and looking at how valuable QB is, if they felt they could get a guy who would give them 1-2 years of top 10 performance with the possibility of a top 5 performance I would still mortgage the three years after that to try.

The alternative is to basically go into complete rebuild now and sell guys off.

[TheStig]

From what I’ve gathered, it’s fairly straightforward. Team approached player X on a 5yr/100M deal on year two. They ask that player to convert 10M of their salary for the upcoming year into a signing bonus. The player is still getting the same 20M that they were set to get from the start. But for cap purposes, the signing bonus is prorated over 4 years. So instead of Player X having a 20M cap it, it will only be a 12.5M hit with the rest being prorated over the life is the contract. The draw back is that it increases the cap hit in later years.

Makes sense. You also account for guaranteed money too and have to account for all the money you've already used this trick on with other players in past years that are now counting extra on your cap this up coming year. I'd assume Mack is one such guy, not sure if there are others.

I'm absolutely not saying it isn't possible (or perhaps even really easy and obvious) just saying if you haven't run the numbers I wouldn't just assume that the Bears have enough flexibility to do that. They may be on the hook for past deals or need to replace too many people on the roster so that with these types of moves they're left with massive holes everywhere or something else.

But that's really on the Bears to decide if they're all in or not. Look at what the Rams are doing. They have a lot of money out there and are all in for the next couple of years. The Bears have 2-3 years left in that D. I would go all in if I were them.

As BB and I said, you can play with the money. It just likely means you're rebuilding in a 3-4 years. I'm not a football cap guy but check out what the Rams do as what I was trying to point out.

[Jeffster81]

Ryan Pace will be fired at the end of the season, along with Matt Nagy. We need fresh blood at GM, coaching staff, and scouts. We have too many incompetent bums recommending busts.

I would not hold my breathe on that happening. Only scenario I see Nagy and Pace gets fired at the end of the season is if the Bears lose the remainder of their games and the Raiders having a top 5 pick courtesy of the Bears crappy play. Otherwise, I see both back next season with a new QB. Bears CANNOT go into 2020 with Trubisky on the roster.