Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 7

[gtn130]

I rounded up on some of them but 1 or 1/2 inch isn’t a big difference. Never said he would become an average defender, I said he can be better than IT on that end.

But..it...is...

It's a literal Mendoza Line.

Yet according to you Trae (6’3” wingspan) is the same as IT (6’1.75” wingspan). Also Trae (7’11.5” standing reach) compared to IT’s (7’7.5” standing reach). IT was also a couple years older at the combine.

I'm not saying they're the same, though. I'm saying Trae's peak will look like IT's in terms of output.

Go look at every guy in the NBA with a 6'3 wingspan or shorter over the last 20 years. I've done this exercise, and like 4/100 ended up earning multiple NBA contracts.

[Ball4life32]

But..it...is...

It's a literal Mendoza Line.

Yet according to you Trae (6’3” wingspan) is the same as IT (6’1.75” wingspan). Also Trae (7’11.5” standing reach) compared to IT’s (7’7.5” standing reach). IT was also a couple years older at the combine.

I'm not saying they're the same, though. I'm saying Trae's peak will look like IT's in terms of output.

Go look at every guy in the NBA with a 6'3 wingspan or shorter over the last 20 years. I've done this exercise, and like 4/100 ended up earning multiple NBA contracts.

So my question is, Trae (who has 4 inch adv in height / standing reach & 1 1/2 inch adv in wingspan)...is significantly better at the same stage in every facet than IT...why is it you think his peak will only be 16-17 IT? Also curious what you think Trae’s peak numbers look like?

Show me all of them that were doing what Trae’s been doing at 21.

[gtn130]

Yet according to you Trae (6’3” wingspan) is the same as IT (6’1.75” wingspan). Also Trae (7’11.5” standing reach) compared to IT’s (7’7.5” standing reach). IT was also a couple years older at the combine.

I'm not saying they're the same, though. I'm saying Trae's peak will look like IT's in terms of output.

Go look at every guy in the NBA with a 6'3 wingspan or shorter over the last 20 years. I've done this exercise, and like 4/100 ended up earning multiple NBA contracts.

So my question is, Trae (who has 4 inch adv in height / standing reach & 1 1/2 inch adv in wingspan)...is significantly better at the same stage in every facet than IT...why is it you think his peak will only be 16-17 IT? Also curious what you think Trae’s peak numbers look like?

Show me all of them that were doing what Trae’s been doing at 21.

I don't know what Trae's offensive peak will be? The analogy is a player who is great on offense and terrible on defense and what that nets out to. IT had an amazing year in 2016, if Trae does that every year during his peak it will be a great thing. Again, not sure why comparing him to IT's best season is so offensive.

I do think his numbers are going to decline a bit this year from where they are. His shooting numbers when tightly/closely guarded are unsustainable.

[Ball4life32]

I'm not saying they're the same, though. I'm saying Trae's peak will look like IT's in terms of output.

Go look at every guy in the NBA with a 6'3 wingspan or shorter over the last 20 years. I've done this exercise, and like 4/100 ended up earning multiple NBA contracts.

So my question is, Trae (who has 4 inch adv in height / standing reach & 1 1/2 inch adv in wingspan)...is significantly better at the same stage in every facet than IT...why is it you think his peak will only be 16-17 IT? Also curious what you think Trae’s peak numbers look like?

Show me all of them that were doing what Trae’s been doing at 21.

I don't know what Trae's offensive peak will be? The analogy is a player who is great on offense and terrible on defense and what that nets out to. IT had an amazing year in 2016, if Trae does that every year during his peak it will be a great thing. Again, not sure why comparing him to IT's best season is so offensive.

I do think his numbers are going to decline a bit this year from where they are. His shooting numbers when tightly/closely guarded are unsustainable.

It’s not offensive, I just see it as a lazy comparison/analogy & neither player is similar at all to me.

[payitforward]

What is the actual formula for DefRTG?

I found it. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

Note the following from the page:

"Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

"Perhaps as a byproduct, big men tend to have the best Defensive Ratings (although Oliver notes that history's best defensive teams were generally anchored by dominant defensive big men, suggesting that those types of players are the most important to a team's defensive success). A corollary to this is that excellent perimeter defenders who don't steal the ball a lot — for instance, Joe Dumars or Doug Christie — are underrated defensively by DRtg, and are prone to look only as good as their team's overall defense performs."

To each his own, but to me these caveats render the tool more or less useless.

I don't think it's useless. As with any stat you just need to understand what it's actually telling you. It's invariably going to lean heavily towards bigs as they block more shots and get more defensive rebounds. The wings that do better tend to be ones that get a ridiculous amount of steals, which can be accurate, or not. I'd also suggest that it's not just about bigs historically having more defensive impact but also that there is significantly more variation in the overall quality of defense amongst bigs as the talent pool tends to be smaller - though positionally they're more likely to be helping on more shots so there is also some logic to the argument that they're more valuable that way, particularly the mobile ones. Drtg can also undervalue bigs. Marc Gasol is criminally underrated by that stat, for example, as he doesn't actually get that many blocks, steals or defensive rebounds. There are some pretty severe limits with drtg, though, and using it as a standalone or even as a tie-breaker is tricky and it can be highly misleading if you aren't careful with it as it's extremely poor as a comparative tool.

Well, that's a far more nuanced & intelligent response than mine! Thanks!

With this & many other "roll-up" statistical ratings, the big problem is how they're used. Most often they are used instead of investigation, even to make investigation "unnecessary." That's not a problem with the rating, it's a problem with people!

PER has a similar problem of making one particular kind of player look good -- better than he should.

[gtn130]

It’s not offensive, I just see it as a lazy comparison/analogy & neither player is similar at all to me.

Dude, read what I'm actually writing.

I am not saying their games are similar *at all*. I am saying Trae will have a similar net output insofar as he's a great offensive player and terrible defensive player. The only qualitative comparison I've made is that they both have short arms because that's a strong indicator Trae won't ever be a good defender.

[Ball4life32]

It’s not offensive, I just see it as a lazy comparison/analogy & neither player is similar at all to me.

Dude, read what I'm actually writing.

I am not saying their games are similar *at all*. I am saying Trae will have a similar net output insofar as he's a great offensive player and terrible defensive player. The only qualitative comparison I've made is that they both have short arms because that's a strong indicator Trae won't ever be a good defender.

Dude, I know exactly what you’re saying. You keep putting words in my mouth.

You think Trae is destined to be a good not great player at his peak based on wingspan and team DRTG (which I consider lazy) while I’ve shown you data why I think he has higher peak on both ends than IT.

[tontoz]

I didn't think any team would be dumb enough to start Melo in his first game after not having played for so long. I stand corrected.

Gotta love this statline:

3-10 from the field, 4 fouls and 5 turnovers so far.

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[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Could someone please explain to me what’s going on between the NBA and Spencer Dinwiddie?

All I know, from the wiretap article, is that he wants them to deliver his paycheck as a digital token. I have no idea what that means.

[nate33]

But..it...is...

It's a literal Mendoza Line.

Yet according to you Trae (6’3” wingspan) is the same as IT (6’1.75” wingspan). Also Trae (7’11.5” standing reach) compared to IT’s (7’7.5” standing reach). IT was also a couple years older at the combine.

I'm not saying they're the same, though. I'm saying Trae's peak will look like IT's in terms of output.

Go look at every guy in the NBA with a 6'3 wingspan or shorter over the last 20 years. I've done this exercise, and like 4/100 ended up earning multiple NBA contracts.

I agree. Or rather, I agree that Young will always be a defensive liability.

I did this same research when we signed Justin Robinson (6'-1.5" with a 6'-1.5" wingspan). Short PG's (6-3 or lower in shoes) with short wingspans (6-3 or lower) pretty much never amount to much in the NBA. The cream of the crop are Kemba Walker, Darren Collison, Isaiah Thomas, D.J. Augustin and Jameer Nelson, who were all lousy defenders.

Most of the diminutive PG's who turn out to be surprisingly good defenders (George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, Mike Conley) have wingspans at least 6-5 if not longer. (Hill has a 6-9 wingspan. Bledsoe has a 6-7.5 wingspan. Conley has a 6-6 wingspan.) The shortest good defender is Chris Paul who is 6-1 with a 6-4.25 wingspan.

Trae Young is 6-1.75 with a 6-3 wingspan.

Here's a list of PG prospects 6-3 and shorter with a sub 6-5 wingspan (sorted by descending wingspan). I've already weeded out all of the guys I never heard of:

[tontoz]

Could someone please explain to me what’s going on between the NBA and Spencer Dinwiddie?

All I know, from the wiretap article, is that he wants them to deliver his paycheck as a digital token. I have no idea what that means.

Hadnt heard that story. The only thing I can think of that qualifies as a "digital token" is bitcoin which isn't recognized as a currency by any country I am aware of.

[queridiculo]

Could someone please explain to me what’s going on between the NBA and Spencer Dinwiddie?

All I know, from the wiretap article, is that he wants them to deliver his paycheck as a digital token. I have no idea what that means.

Hadnt heard that story. The only thing I can think of that qualifies as a "digital token" is bitcoin which isn't recognized as a currency by any country I am aware of.

Basically he wants to securitize his future earnings.

The idea is for him to get a lump sum of his contract balance now by selling shares of his remaining contract balance.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Could someone please explain to me what’s going on between the NBA and Spencer Dinwiddie?

All I know, from the wiretap article, is that he wants them to deliver his paycheck as a digital token. I have no idea what that means.

As far as I've seen, it's not that he wants to be paid in cryptocurrency, it's that he wants to use his NBA contract effectively as collateral in a cryptocurrency (not bitcoin - there are loads of cryptocurrencies) scheme. Basically, investors give him money up front and he guarantees their principal and interest using his NBA contract based on their buying cryptocurrency backed by his contract. He gets the money up front that he can, in theory, then make more interest on over time investing elsewhere while his investors get security of an investment with a certain amount of interest (can't remember the exact number but it was pretty decent, from what I recall) backed by his contract.

The NBA has a few issues with this, and I feel they're reasonable concerns. I'm not convinced they're going to be able to stop him, though, beyond perhaps the issue of his player option, because that money isn't actually locked in. The simple solutions to that issue would be for Dinwiddie to turn that player option into a guaranteed year, which he probably would rather not do to keep his options open, or to simply use the first two years of his contract in financial transactions, which he would rather not do because it's a significantly smaller transaction and not as potentially profitable for him. I'm curious to see what comes of it.

As for the NBA, they're not against cryptocurrencies in general. The Kings and Mavs already accept bitcoin, for example, and cryptocurrency is particularly popular in Asia where investors want their money kept in places and forms that their government can't regulate - with the NBA after that sweet, sweet Chinese revenue, they're going to be torn on cryptocurrency at worst. The torn part comes from the fact that cryptocurrency being unregulated is both the reason people love to use it and the reason people are hesitant to accept it. If your business is regulated by those doing financial transactions with you are doing them in ways that aren't, you're potentially vulnerable (not automatically so) in ways that would largely be avoidable. My major problem with cryptocurrency stems from the unregulated part of the equation. If something is only worth it if it's unregulated, it's probably not worth it at all. Too much shady stuff goes on. I don't think Dinwiddie qualifies as that kind of shady stuff, at least not the tokenization of his contract, but I have some major concerns. Though we have some economists/financial experts on here smarter than me who may correct me in all of this.

[payitforward]

Could someone please explain to me what’s going on between the NBA and Spencer Dinwiddie?

All I know, from the wiretap article, is that he wants them to deliver his paycheck as a digital token. I have no idea what that means.

Hadnt heard that story. The only thing I can think of that qualifies as a "digital token" is bitcoin which isn't recognized as a currency by any country I am aware of.

Basically he wants to securitize his future earnings.

The idea is for him to get a lump sum of his contract balance now by selling shares of his remaining contract balance.

...without having to pay taxes on that lump sum all at once. It's a brilliant idea, brilliant financial move. Not likely to work for the league, as it would begin a tsunami of high-priced guys doing the same thing -- in the NBA & other sports....

[Illmatic12]

Gotta give it to Ernie (lol) , he got out of that contract at the right time..

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[nate33]

Gotta give it to Ernie (lol) , he got out of that contract at the right time..

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Yup. We were fortunate to dump Porter when we did. At this point, I suspect Chicago couldn't dump him for expirings if they wanted to. It's a damn shame. Porter was a really good player when healthy. I just don't think he'll ever have any sustained stretches of healthy play again. He might look good for a 20 game stretch here and there, but then he'll develop some nagging injury and play like crap.

[closg00]

I didn't think any team would be dumb enough to start Melo in his first game after not having played for so long. I stand corrected.

Gotta love this statline:

3-10 from the field, 4 fouls and 5 turnovers so far.

Read on Twitter

Jaxon Hayes is nasty, he would have been a good fit with Trae Young

[queridiculo]

The Nets were forced to release Iman Shumpert, we should be all over him as a signing to shore up both our guard and small forward depth.

With Miles done for we really don't have any credible depth at the position, and Shumpert would bring some much needed defensive energy.

[nate33]

The Nets were forced to release Iman Shumpert, we should be all over him as a signing to shore up both our guard and small forward depth.

With Miles done for we really don't have any credible depth at the position, and Shumpert would bring some much needed defensive energy.

Good call. And he was, by all reports, a very good team leader for Sacramento a year ago.

That said, he has been terrible in Brooklyn despite getting regular minutes in a reserve role. His TS% is .403.

I wonder if he's dealing with an injury. He's a pretty injury-prone guy.

[dckingsfan]

The Nets were forced to release Iman Shumpert, we should be all over him as a signing to shore up both our guard and small forward depth.

With Miles done for we really don't have any credible depth at the position, and Shumpert would bring some much needed defensive energy.

Good call. And he was, by all reports, a very good team leader for Sacramento a year ago.

That said, he has been terrible in Brooklyn despite getting regular minutes in a reserve role. His TS% is .403.

I wonder if he's dealing with an injury. He's a pretty injury-prone guy.

He was never all that on the offensive side of the ball... including in Sac where he had one of his better runs. And from what I saw of his play (on D) this year - he is either injured or lost a step.