The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread

[NY 567]

Look how long it took Gordan Hayward to get back in form. It hasn't even been 10 games. It's gonna take time for KP to get it together.

[MisterHibachi]

KPs been off for like 2 years. He won't be back to himself until next year. You gotta punt this year with him and live with the drawbacks.

[Colbinii]

He is a top-5 player so far this regular season.

LeBron, Harden, Luka, Giannis, Lillard

I have a hard time considering Harden a top 5 player this season despite his 37 ppg.
A 39% shooting and 5.5 TOs are too much to get ignored.
I would either put AD or Kawhi instead of Harden.

Kawhi has missed games and Davis doesn't have nearly the offensive impact as Harden.

I don't see any issue with Harden being top 5.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[JulesWinnfield]

Hes the best ball handler at his size that Ive ever seen. Putting on a show late in this game vs the raps with his handle. One behind the back to split a double team that was nasty. He’s incredible

[studcrackers]

my brain couldn't understand how that was possible

[studcrackers]

anyways, career high 42 tonight and another triple double. only him and lebron w/40 point triple doubles before turning 21

[TheBonzaiEffect]

Everything about this guy is surreal, but three things I think aren't talked about enough are:

1. His rebounding. The guy is averaging 10.7 RPG and 9 DRPG. He's 9th in the NBA in DRPG! Ahead of guys like Whitseide, Jokic, Jordan, Anthony Davis, Steven Adams, etc. He's a 6'7 point forward...to be doing that is nuts.

2. His potential assists. He's second in the NBA in potential assists, with 19. Only 1 behind LeBron (who is in first), and 3 ahead of Westbrook (who is in third). He could/should be averaging a triple-double.

3. His finishing ability. He's currently 5th in the NBA in drives. His FG% on drives is 69%. The next highest FG% on drives of anyone in top top 10 is Brogdan at 56%! That's insane. He's 13% better on drives than anyone comparable. Harden and LeBron are 55%. Kyrie 49%. Kawahi 48%. His ability to get in the paint and shoot that little floater has been unreal.

These three things have combined to make him arguably the most diverse offensive player in the game. He can rebound better than any peer (except for Giannis), push the ball to create better than any peer (except for LeBron), and get in the paint and finish best in the NBA. The guy is the entire package on O.

[The-Power]

Porzingis is really tanking the offense right now. If you look at the splits with Luka, it's ridiculous.

Doncic ON, Porzingis ON: 109.1 (309 minutes) (-4.1 net rating)
Doncic ON, Porzingis OFF: 129.0 ORTG (146 minutes) (+12.9 net rating)
Doncic OFF, Porzingis ON: 98.1 ORTG (75 minutes) (-6.8 net rating)
Doncic OFF, Porzingis OFF: 121.8 (100 minutes) (+18.8 net rating)

So in short: the Mavs bench is amazing, Porzingis tanks the offense and Doncic is bad on defense (but his offensive splits are much more promising than raw on/off numbers would suggest).

[TheGOATRises007]

22-5-5 after the 1st quarter.

Insane.

[makaveli_99]

dude is absolutely unreal...

can you imagine he averages 29-10-10 for his career on good efficiency. I mean hes doing it in his 2nd year, he will only get better

[antonac]

Porzingis is really tanking the offense right now. If you look at the splits with Luka, it's ridiculous.

Doncic ON, Porzingis ON: 109.1 (309 minutes) (-4.1 net rating)
Doncic ON, Porzingis OFF: 129.0 ORTG (146 minutes) (+12.9 net rating)
Doncic OFF, Porzingis ON: 98.1 ORTG (75 minutes) (-6.8 net rating)
Doncic OFF, Porzingis OFF: 121.8 (100 minutes) (+18.8 net rating)

So in short: the Mavs bench is amazing, Porzingis tanks the offense and Doncic is bad on defense (but his offensive splits are much more promising than raw on/off numbers would suggest).

The Mavs have about 6-7 players who would be absolutely brilliant, luxury bench buys but they lack starters. The problem with these splits are that the Mavs can run a bench unit that's of a championship caliber against other teams bench, but when the other teams put all their starters on they're heavily outgunned.

The most frustrating thing from them hasn't been the performances, it's been the game to game consistency. One game Hardaway, Kleber, Curry, Finny-Smith or whoever has been lighting it up and the next game they contribute next to nothing.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

The Mavs have about 6-7 players who would be absolutely brilliant, luxury bench buys but they lack starters. The problem with these splits are that the Mavs can run a bench unit that's of a championship caliber against other teams bench, but when the other teams put all their starters on they're heavily outgunned.

I think you're a bit overselling the Mavs bench.
It's a good bench for sure, but there's no reason for them to be world beaters. Those kind of super dominant bench units need an all NBAer in disguise like Manu to really wipe the floor that way.
And it's not like NBA rotations are such that you always have the 2nd teams facing each other all the time, there will be a regression to the mean, I'm expecting.

[mitrandil20]

This lad is bonkers.

[AdagioPace]

he obviously didn't learn basketball over the summer. It's amazing what few adjustments, 6 months of experience in the bag, and a better shape can do for your performance.

I don't remember I've ever seen such a jump in production (MIP candidate?). We know box-score isn't everything, but what we're seeing it's still amazing from a pure factoid-perspective. Considering the established role he has within the Mavs machinery and Carlisle's plans, I'm curious to see if he can sustain these numbers, which are increasingly looking more and more realistic.

[Dr Spaceman]

KPs been off for like 2 years. He won't be back to himself until next year. You gotta punt this year with him and live with the drawbacks.

Do you have to punt though? Why play him 31 minutes? Why not give him the Keith Bogans minutes plan until he’s back in shape? Gordon Hayward accepted being a bench player last year.

There are ways to work KP into form and getting him run with Luka that don’t involve “punting” the season.

[Bob8]

KPs been off for like 2 years. He won't be back to himself until next year. You gotta punt this year with him and live with the drawbacks.

Do you have to punt though? Why play him 31 minutes? Why not give him the Keith Bogans minutes plan until he’s back in shape? Gordon Hayward accepted being a bench player last year.

There are ways to work KP into form and getting him run with Luka that don’t involve “punting” the season.

It's not all black and white. Spacing is much better this year because of KP and Luka is using it really well. KP is very solid defender even now, he just need to be better in offense, but no way that he's totally negative for the Mavs.

[Dundalis]

The Mavs have about 6-7 players who would be absolutely brilliant, luxury bench buys but they lack starters. The problem with these splits are that the Mavs can run a bench unit that's of a championship caliber against other teams bench, but when the other teams put all their starters on they're heavily outgunned.

I think you're a bit overselling the Mavs bench.
It's a good bench for sure, but there's no reason for them to be world beaters. Those kind of super dominant bench units need an all NBAer in disguise like Manu to really wipe the floor that way.
And it's not like NBA rotations are such that you always have the 2nd teams facing each other all the time, there will be a regression to the mean, I'm expecting.

The Mavs bench are being oversold, when despite having no big names, they are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency in the NBA this season? As far as regression to the mean goes, the Mavs bench is better than it was last season and they were ranked FOURTH in offensive efficiency last season, despite being a 33 win team.

[Texas Chuck]

The Mavs have about 6-7 players who would be absolutely brilliant, luxury bench buys but they lack starters. The problem with these splits are that the Mavs can run a bench unit that's of a championship caliber against other teams bench, but when the other teams put all their starters on they're heavily outgunned.

I think you're a bit overselling the Mavs bench.
It's a good bench for sure, but there's no reason for them to be world beaters. Those kind of super dominant bench units need an all NBAer in disguise like Manu to really wipe the floor that way.
And it's not like NBA rotations are such that you always have the 2nd teams facing each other all the time, there will be a regression to the mean, I'm expecting.

The Mavs bench are being oversold, when despite having no big names, they are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency in the NBA this season? As far as regression to the mean goes, the Mavs bench is better than it was last season and they were ranked FOURTH in offensive efficiency last season, despite being a 33 win team.

yeah Mavs bench has been doing this for several years now. Look at some of the lineup data when Barea,Powell, Devin, old Dirk were on the court together. They were wrecking teams.

And it shouldn't be surprising. Carlisle can't do anything about the massive talent gap between Dallas starters and other team's starters over the past 4-5 years. But give each team roughly the same talent off the bench and Carlisle is simply going to outcoach the other guy 95% of the time.

Mavs have a top 10 #1 guy in Luka, a bottom 10 #2 guy in KP, essentially no 3-5 guys then a really solid 6-11 guys. For them to be more than a fun regular season team, they've got to find or develop more starting caliber players. Having $31M tied up in THJ/Courtney Lee is a significant problem as well.

[limbo]

If Luka is gonna play like this you don't really need that much around him honestly, especially on the offensive end. Although it would be nice if KP actually produced as advertised, that is an all-star level player, instead of playing way below average. But he gets a pass for this regular season due to coming back from a long lay off.

As i was saying. Luka is currently passing his audition for the Batman role, being a LeBron/Harden type of player. This role means he's going to be having the ball and consequently, pulling the strings the majority of time on offense. As such, the right fit becomes more important than just stacking talent on talent.

For example, if Giannis somehow ended in Dallas, the ability to maximize both Luka and Giannis on the same team becomes a problem, because both need the ball in their hands to squeeze league-leading impact out of them. In this case, the question becomes who sacrifices what and how. I'd rather just give Luka the ball to do what he does, and bring two quality starters that complement his game rather than going all out for a Top 20 NBA player.

There's actually not that many superstars in the league that could play 2nd fiddle to Luka, while still getting the most out of their impact. Guys like Lillard, Kemba, Kyrie, Westbrook... honestly, i'd rather have role players instead of picking one of these guys to pair with Luka.

Luka is leading the best offense in the league right now, with Porzingis struggling. If there are moves that need to be made, it's getting guys who make their impact on the defensive end. Someone like Horford would be ideal. Great defensively, can shoot, great screener and passer. If not, i'd like an Isaac, Adebayo, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams... that type of player. The same with wings. Three and D guys over stacking all-star talent to the brim with diminishing returns and no bench.

[Doctor MJ]

It's so exciting seeing what Luka is doing. It's just plain unprecedented. Threads pitting him against Giannis feel premature, but you look at what he's actually doing out there and he's just so far ahead of anyone else at this age without relying on jump-out-the-gym athleticism. Short of health issues - always a concern - it would honestly be strange if Luka wasn't an all-timer when all is said and done.

I also keep thinking about Phoenix and Sacramento. People talk about passing on Jordan, but those teams had good reasons for the moves they made. You can't know everything. Here you had an opportunity to draft the #1 prospect in the draft, you had inside information at that #1 prospect from your coach/GM respectively, and you went against picking him for 1) a guy who looks like what people thought was the ideal NBA player 20 years ago but isn't or 2) a guy most don't see as a Top 5 prospect. I honestly don't know if there's another draft pick that is as embarrassing as these two, period.

Of course, there's no way these teams choose against Luka if not for bust like Darko - someone often seen as a bad draft pick, but really was more bad scouting from the entire basketball world. But again, I'd be more sympathetic to Euro-skepticism if you didn't hire Euro coaches and GMs.

Anyway, exciting times for Dallas. They've been struggling ever since Dirk's slow decline began in earnest and along the way have seen their stature as a "well run franchise" fall to something much iffy. That seems primed for a comeback.