Game 17: Portland vs Cleveland 5:00pm SNW

[Dame Lizard]

Why on earth is Stott's starting Tolliver at Center over Skal? Particularly against Milwaukee, it didn't make sense.

Little needs to start. Melo can come off the bench, or Stotts should play Little at SF and Melo PF if he insists.

[Epicurus]

So the theory is that minutes during the game should be distributed as to the post-game shooting efficiency numbrs. Very interesting and innovative.

Obviously your taking a stab at my post, so I'll just say...

It's not a theory, not very interesting, and not innovative.... It's more like 5th grade math.

Naw, 5th grade math follows the laws of logic.

[zzaj]

Lillard is obviously not straight. The whole team revolves around his play. With a 50% version of Lillard, this team is among the league's worst, and that's showing right now. Until he's 100% healthy we should expect losses, and even then it's going to take some serious progressive breakthrough in order to expect wins against average NBA teams.

Blazers are playing without a Center right now...which isn't pretty. Blazers don't have a good rebounder on the team if Whiteside sits, other than Lillard...and he's a PG.

There were some pretty bad missed calls tonight in favor of Cleveland. I try not to harp on that too much because it's pointless...but lack of FT attempts is becoming a recurring theme.

I have a hard time buying into this. Watching that Bucks game, though they lost, they played the best basketball they've played all year, and almost won. Losing to the Cavs without them having K Love, and us having Dame is just another pathetic loss.

Lack of FT attempts happen when so many of your shot attempts are 3's, and rebounding will always suck when your only big is 25 feet from the basket setting screens.

Another huge reason for low FT attempts is
not putting pressure on opposing defenses. With so much ISO play going on, teams know they can play straight up, man defense and it’s going to amount to a difficult, well contested shot.

Also, fastbreaking teams put bigtime pressure on defenses, and are usually associated with a high foul rate. The Blazers have been in the bottom 10 of fastbreak points for 20 years or so.

There’s a lot going wrong with this team right now. Not getting FTs is a symptom not a cause.

[Epicurus]

Yet, heretofore they have not been, despite not being fastbreaking also in previous seasons,, so low in the relative use of the foul line. Are the opponents really playing "straight up" on the Blazers? I see nearly universal and perennial double teaming of Lillard and oftenMc Collum. I also see much bumping and grabbing of both going uncalled.

[Epicurus]

I am puzzled by one coaching decision and was during the time--why not ride out longer Simons' fourth quarter hot hand, which also included a eyepoppiing steal off a dribble? Yes, Mc Colum is the vet and considered by some as a foundation, but he played nearly the entire 3rd quarter and the first five minutes of the fourth. With Simons so hot, what was the necessity of inserting Mc Collum after a short 2minute plus rest? Of course during that time of rest, the Blazers had a minus 6, but I fail to see what Simons did for that. When McCollum went back, he had nothing in the tank ( a post hoc matter which has nothig to do with the choice at the time, except to some posters).

[zzaj]

Why on earth is Stott's starting Tolliver at Center over Skal? Particularly against Milwaukee, it didn't make sense.

Little needs to start. Melo can come off the bench, or Stotts should play Little at SF and Melo PF if he insists.

First question—like many coaches, Stotts is trying to keep his rotations the same despite players being out. I don’t really agree with that philosophy, and you could make a pretty strong argument that with sooo many people out, that “the rotation” is out the window anyway.

Your second point—there are a few issues here...one of which is that it puts Hood, who has been one of the Blazers’ most consistent offensive options this season, on the bench in order to make room for two less efficient offensive options. Also, for whatever reasons, Hood seems to have enough gravity at SF to warp defenses enough that it gives more room for Lillard—Little doesn’t have that amount of gravity out to the 3pt line.

I realize I’m talking the offensive side of the ball, but we have to remember who the coach is. Despite words to the contrary, his actions are that of a coach who clearly favors the offensive side of the court. The Blazers under Stotts have never had a good defensive assistant, and probably the best they’ve had, left for MIN in the offseason, only to be replaced internally with a coach of very little experience.

I get the feeling that the times when the Blazers have had a top 10 defense under Stotts were more about personnel (specifically Nurkic, Aminu and Harkless) and continuity than coaching philosophy or emphasis.

[Epicurus]

Yes, players who are good defenders lead to better defensive teams, all things being equal. Also players who are good offensive players lead to better offensive teams, all thing being equal. Good defenders who also play good offense lead to more wins for any team.

[d-train]

A missed shot and a rebound are the best first plays to successful offense. You have a better chance of scoring after a missed shot and rebound than you do taking the ball out of the basket and in-bounding. We don't have a chance to play defense or offense if we don't rebound missed shots and don't limit our misses.

[Moonbeam]

The season is over 20% over, so I thought I would look at a team-wide comparison to last year in terms of 4 factors on both offense and defense.

Offense:

The Blazers' eFG% has gone from .528 (13th in the league) to .512 (22nd).
Turnover % has remained the same at 12.1%. This was good for 11th in the league last year but 5th so far this year.
Offensive rebounding percentage has dropped off a cliff, from 26.6% (1st in the league) to 21.4% (24th).
Free throws per field goal attempt has likewise dropped, from .210 (7th in the league) to .189 (20th).

Portland had the 3rd best ORating last year at 114.7 (+4.3 relative to the league), but have fallen to 14th this year at 108.5 (+0.2). It seems the biggest culprits for the dropoff are what fellow posters here have pointed out - rebounding and free throw rate.

Defense:

The Blazers' allowed eFG% has actually improved from .516 (12th in the league) to .506 (10th).
The Blazers have recently been bad at forcing turnovers, finishing last in 2018-19 at 11.0% and so far rank 27th this year at 12.0%.
The proportion of defensive rebounds Portland has secured has dropped from 77.9% (good for 9th last year) to 74.3% (28th).
The free throw rate of opponents has gone from .195 (16th in the league) to .249 (29th).

Overall, Portland was 16th in DRating last year at 110.5 (+0.1) but have fallen to 22nd this year with a DRating of 112.2 (+4.3). Again, rebounding and free throw rate seem to be the biggest issues.

Relative to the league, the offense an defense have both fallen off by just over 4 points per 100 possessions, so the dropoff is uniform.

[Wizenheimer]

The season is over 20% over, so I thought I would look at a team-wide comparison to last year in terms of 4 factors on both offense and defense.

Offense:

The Blazers' eFG% has gone from .528 (13th in the league) to .512 (22nd).
Turnover % has remained the same at 12.1%. This was good for 11th in the league last year but 5th so far this year.
Offensive rebounding percentage has dropped off a cliff, from 26.6% (1st in the league) to 21.4% (24th).
Free throws per field goal attempt has likewise dropped, from .210 (7th in the league) to .189 (20th).

Portland had the 3rd best ORating last year at 114.7 (+4.3 relative to the league), but have fallen to 14th this year at 108.5 (+0.2). It seems the biggest culprits for the dropoff are what fellow posters here have pointed out - rebounding and free throw rate.

Defense:

The Blazers' allowed eFG% has actually improved from .516 (12th in the league) to .506 (10th).
The Blazers have recently been bad at forcing turnovers, finishing last in 2018-19 at 11.0% and so far rank 27th this year at 12.0%.
The proportion of defensive rebounds Portland has secured has dropped from 77.9% (good for 9th last year) to 74.3% (28th).
The free throw rate of opponents has gone from .195 (16th in the league) to .249 (29th).

Overall, Portland was 16th in DRating last year at 110.5 (+0.1) but have fallen to 22nd this year with a DRating of 112.2 (+4.3). Again, rebounding and free throw rate seem to be the biggest issues.

Relative to the league, the offense an defense have both fallen off by just over 4 points per 100 possessions, so the dropoff is uniform.

more on the rebounding:

Portland is losing a lot of games because of rebounding. Last season, the Blazers were 4th in the NBA in scoring 2nd chance points at 15.0/game. This season, they are 21st at 12.4/game. A differential of -2.6. Last season Portland was 17th in allowing opponent 2nd chance points at 13.7/game; This season, they are dead last at 16.8/game. A differential of -3.1. That means Portland is -5.7 points/game worse off the glass this year, and their MOV (margin of victory) is only -3.8. Last season, Portland was +1.3 in 2nd chance points from both ends of the floor, This season, they are -4.4. Their -4.4 point deficit is more than their MOV

Last season, their MOV was +4.2; this season it's -3.8. That is a -8.0 drop, and right now, -5.7 of that drop is in 2nd chance points. And if you go back and look at what happened to Portland against the Warriors in the playoffs, the biggest reason for getting swept was how badly Portland performed on the boards. So, Blazer management had a revealing template for what needed to be emphasized in building the roster....but they ignored it and are now paying the price