The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread

[Johnny Firpo]

Having watched all of our games, Doncic is a statistically plus defender this year, and matchup hunting him is not good basketball anymore. I'm reasonably sure that when the defensive advanced stats come out, they will reflect that, or at the very least they will paint him to be average or slightly below average.

Nah, definitely not. Doncic has been a negative this year, and that's obvious by his on/off DRTG splits as well. Most of it is a lack of trying, though. He just doesn't have the conditioning to carry the team offensively without coasting on defense yet.

Let's wait a little bit, the whole team is trending upward on D, and the eye test doesn't tell me that Luka is negative, but I guess it could be. Still, let's wait until we have a decent sample of advanced D stats.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

When you are that size you just need to have the IQ and put the efffort to be a positive defender, unless you have so little mobility that you become a liability.
Dallas will always scheme to minimize his exposure, and he'll probably be free to roam around as a help defender and collecting defensive rebounds.
He's big enough to absorb bumps and and guard multiple positions, as long as they are not the primary offensive threats.

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[User_friendly]

This has been an incredible start to the season for Luka. I'm going to wait another month before really entertaining the idea that he's a potential Top 10 player ever or even GOAT candidate.

No offense, but I think we need more than another month of regular season basketball to make this kind of assumptions

I think what your saying is very appropiate for the assumption of considering him a Top 10 player ever or GOAT.
But for the assumption of potential?. Potential is there. The same can be said for Trae. If any of them has half of the Curry progression, they can both be GOAT, because they are already much better passers, and maybe even better rebounders.

[Peregrine01]

Hmm, Dirk just as laterally quick as Luka? Harden isn't laterally quick enough to rotate on defense, but I guess he's laterally quick enough to abuse defenders in the half court?

There's a huge difference between moving your feet side to side to play defense and beating guys off the dribble by lulling them to sleep after dribbling for 10 seconds. Harden's ability to get to the rack is also helped because defenders are afraid of getting whistled for fouls.

I think Harden is lazy on defense but I also think that he isn't physically predisposed to be a great defender either. He isn't a guy who has a high motor and can chase and harass guys tirelessly and he doesn't move his feet well laterally. His body type just isn't well suited for it.

Harden does so much more than lull guys to sleep and then dribble by them on offense. He's literally one of the best ever in terms of change of speed and change of direction with the ball in his hands. You wouldn't be able to do that without great lateral quickness.

"Motor" is really just another term for "effort". There are times when it's very obvious that Harden doesn't care to be involved. Like when he passes the ball. He makes zero effort to do anything without the ball in his hands. When he's not defending the ball, Harden literally doesn't care to do anything. He ball watches and constantly loses his man.

Harden has terrible defensive fundamentals, and has no interest in being better, which is why he's such a bad team defender. But his physical ability is not what holds him back. In fact, the best part of his defense is his man defense and his ability to defend the ball handler, which is where a lack of lateral quickness would be exposed if anything.

Saying guys like Nash and Dirk are more physically suited to play good defense than Doncic, but Harden isn't is crazy to me. Harden is the most physically gifted one out of all of them, by far.

BTW, Ginobili is another guy who mainly got by on hustle and intelligence on defense, and he was quite good at it. And his physical profile is essentially identical to Harden's.

Agree that Harden's antipathy makes him a worse defender but it's really a stretch to say that the best part of his defense is his man defense. I think he has good or passable post defense but he's the one guy on his team that gets blown by on the perimeter regularly.

Ginobili was a great defender and had great quickness and anticipation. But what made him really great on that end was his "everywhereness", he was disrupting passing lanes, getting deflections, drawing charges, etc. And he had the motor for that whereas Harden doesn't (not even on the offensive end) so I don't think that the comparison to Harden is valid at all.

[wutevahung]

I don't know what other people have been watching, but to me Luka doesn't look below average as a defender.

The more important part about defense right now is the ability to guard multiple positions, and he does that I think better than half of the league just because of his size, strength and smart. He is also a good defensive rebounder, and unlike Westbrook, his rebounds don't come at the expense of team defense.

He gets lost from off ball action sometimes, but doesn't look like he gives up cuts more than other #1 options in the league like LeBron did in the previous few years, and Harden/Westbrook have been doing for years.

I doubt he will ever make all defensive team, but I just don't see where those criticisms are coming from, and they feel more like nitpicking than actual constructive arguments. Is there somewhere I can check his defensive metrics on iso possessions and other more advance stats? thanks

[The-Power]

Watch on YouTube

[Doctor MJ]

Tony Parker was an elite at the rim finisher as well and without looking it up I don't even know if he could dunk. You don't have to be prime Nique or Kemp to be a great finisher.

Yeah but Tony was much faster than Luka.
That changes a lot of things.
The "problem" with Luka is that he is neither fast neither have a big jump so it makes rim's attacks much harder for him even tough he has some big weapons with enable him to do it as his fakes, his craftyness and his body and size

considering how well he finishes at the rim and his draw rate, are we sure there is even a "problem"? My point with including Parker was not to say they do it the same way, but to illustrate you don't have to be Lebron to finish at the rim.

I'm shocked by how easy this is for Luka now. I had no expectation he'd ever be this good at this and it's something he figured out. Crazy.

[GSP]

Watch on YouTube

Good vid but i think Elgee is overrating his defense here. Hes only highlight some strong plays and neglecting to mention all the issues/brushing them off

[Johnny Firpo]

The Clippers sat him down at the school desk last night, but they provided good learning material for the kid.

[User_friendly]

The Clippers sat him down at the school desk last night, but they provided good learning material for the kid.

Yes, the problem with him is that he is at learning age. I would have kept more thing for myself, if I were the Clippers.
One of the things I think he should do (I barely dare to give advice to him, but that's at least my impression), is to speculate more and select better with his shot,

[Dr Spaceman]

When you are that size you just need to have the IQ and put the efffort to be a positive defender, unless you have so little mobility that you become a liability.
Dallas will always scheme to minimize his exposure, and he'll probably be free to roam around as a help defender and collecting defensive rebounds.
He's big enough to absorb bumps and and guard multiple positions, as long as they are not the primary offensive threats.

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Yeah people tend to blow it out of proportion when they see a guy get burned off the dribble and assume he’s that bad in every situation. Luka is never going to be good at stopping dribble penetration but that is a weakness that can be minimized. He can definitely be a contributor on defense.

[NaturalThunder]

42 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds, 2 turnovers tonight on 66% TS.

Another amazing game in a Mavs win. I have not abandoned the Thunder as my favorite team even though this is going to obviously be a rough year. But, living where I live, I get pretty much every Mavericks game. I pretty much tune in every night simply to watch the Luka show. I have fully jumped on the Luka train and the Mavs have firmly planted themselves as my second favorite team.

[Dr Spaceman]

This dude is so savvy. I’ve now seen him do this move a few times where he gets the screen and dribbles in to the free throw line and then kind of sticks his butt out backwards to wall off the defender, waits a beat, and then explodes to the rim once the 2.9 seconds are up for the helping big man. Freezes the entire defense all at once. It’s one of James Harden’s favorite tricks.

Absurd how he just absorbs all this stuff, I bet he’s a League Pass junkie. A true prodigy. I wonder if in ten years we’ll be remarking on how he learned the Dirk fadeaway. Or that LeBron running short jumper in the lane.

[Peregrine01]

How underappreciated is the ability to decelerate in preventing injuries? Both Harden and Doncic measure in the upper decile in their ability to decelerate and they both are (in Harden's case) or look (in Doncic's) extremely durable. I think the eccentric motion in basketball has been very understudied so far but I don't think it will remain that way.

[Peregrine01]

This dude is so savvy. I’ve now seen him do this move a few times where he gets the screen and dribbles in to the free throw line and then kind of sticks his butt out backwards to wall off the defender, waits a beat, and then explodes to the rim once the 2.9 seconds are up for the helping big man. Freezes the entire defense all at once. It’s one of James Harden’s favorite tricks.

Absurd how he just absorbs all this stuff, I bet he’s a League Pass junkie. A true prodigy. I wonder if in ten years we’ll be remarking on how he learned the Dirk fadeaway. Or that LeBron running short jumper in the lane.

No doubt he's a prodigy. Lots of guys try to emulate moves but Luka is the kind of sponge that if he sees it once, he can put it in practice in the very next game. He just has an innate feel for the game that's hard to describe - you have to see it in person.

[Cavsfansince84]

He's basically already eclipsed a lot of the more optimistic guesses at how good he could become at 26-27. I actually don't expect his box score stats to go up much from here but he will obviously still become better at most everything. The stats will also go down as he is surrounded with better players and isn't asked to score as much. That's what generally happened with LeBron.

[Doctor MJ]

He's basically already eclipsed a lot of the more optimistic guesses at how good he come become at 26-27. I actually don't expect his box score stats to go up much from here but he will obviously still become better at most everything. The stats will also go down as he is surrounded with better players and isn't asked to score as much. That's what generally happened with LeBron.

I'd agree. From this point onward statistical improvement will start to get much more subtle.

I too use LeBron as a touchstone. In terms of LeBron doing GOAT things against regular defense, that happened in 2009, but since then he has made various improvements that make him more and more unstoppable against the fiercest game-planned defense.

It will be informative to see Luka in the playoffs. I expect it will take some lumps before he's truly at his big-stage peak.

The big question that remains to me is whether Luka can truly be LeBron's equal given his inferior physical frame. Had you asked me at any time before this season I'd have said "No", but now...? It's a worthy debate.

[Cavsfansince84]

I'd agree. From this point onward statistical improvement will start to get much more subtle.

I too use LeBron as a touchstone. In terms of LeBron doing GOAT things against regular defense, that happened in 2009, but since then he has made various improvements that make him more and more unstoppable against the fiercest game-planned defense.

It will be informative to see Luka in the playoffs. I expect it will take some lumps before he's truly at his big-stage peak.

The big question that remains to me is whether Luka can truly be LeBron's equal given his inferior physical frame. Had you asked me at any time before this season I'd have said "No", but now...? It's a worthy debate.

I suspect he'll eventually get there. His frame is pretty good I would say and even the athleticism he sort of makes up for with his ability to dribble and his skill set much like Harden does but he's much bigger than Harden and has that high release. Its not likely he ever reaches peak LeBron levels but I could see him winning multiple mvps and fmvps.

[Doctor MJ]

I'd agree. From this point onward statistical improvement will start to get much more subtle.

I too use LeBron as a touchstone. In terms of LeBron doing GOAT things against regular defense, that happened in 2009, but since then he has made various improvements that make him more and more unstoppable against the fiercest game-planned defense.

It will be informative to see Luka in the playoffs. I expect it will take some lumps before he's truly at his big-stage peak.

The big question that remains to me is whether Luka can truly be LeBron's equal given his inferior physical frame. Had you asked me at any time before this season I'd have said "No", but now...? It's a worthy debate.

I suspect he'll eventually get there. His frame is pretty good I would say and even the athleticism he sort of makes up for with his ability to dribble and his skill set much like Harden does but he's much bigger than Harden and has that high release. Its not likely he ever reaches peak LeBron levels but I could see him winning multiple mvps and fmvps.

I find myself seriously considered future Luka vs peak LeBron now if I'm honest. I think the really interesting question isn't what the odds are of it happening, but what would have to happen to get there.

Along those lines, there is the reality that at present, the gap between Luka's team ORtg and the 2nd best team in the league is bigger than the gap between the 2nd and the 13th. Obviously we all question how sustainable this is...but we're at a point where that's what's holding us back: The assumption that what we're seeing right now is in some way unsustainable. That there's no way that Luka can produce by far the best offense in the league with often Tim Hardaway Jr being the best offensive teammate he has.

To be fair, it's not an unreasonable assumption. I mean, THJ just doesn't seem like someone any contending offense should be depending upon. But the fact that we're no longer talking about him reaching a new mythical gear but are instead trying to "round down" what we're already seeing makes it that nothing is really too bold to consider.

[Cavsfansince84]

I find myself seriously considered future Luka vs peak LeBron now if I'm honest. I think the really interesting question isn't what the odds are of it happening, but what would have to happen to get there.

Along those lines, there is the reality that at present, the gap between Luka's team ORtg and the 2nd best team in the league is bigger than the gap between the 2nd and the 13th. Obviously we all question how sustainable this is...but we're at a point where that's what's holding us back: The assumption that what we're seeing right now is in some way unsustainable. That there's no way that Luka can produce by far the best offense in the league with often Tim Hardaway Jr being the best offensive teammate he has.

To be fair, it's not an unreasonable assumption. I mean, THJ just doesn't seem like someone any contending offense should be depending upon. But the fact that we're no longer talking about him reaching a new mythical gear but are instead trying to "round down" what we're already seeing makes it that nothing is really too bold to consider.

I think peak wise it may be more about defensive capabilities. LeBron has not only anchored the top playoff ortg team of all time but also anchored Miami and Cleveland defenses(though with the Cleveland ones he had more legitimate big man help) that were among the best in the league. Using LeBron as his primary comparison isn't really fair though even though its probably going to be the primary one until he retires. One thing obviously in Doncic's favor is the era he plays in and his ability to use the analytic style of offense which he is incorporating a lot this year. His long 2's he's already cut in half as a % of his shots while his shots near the rim and ability to get to the line have gone up dramatically.