Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[payitforward]

Note that to try to justify picking Rui, you have to compare him to Brad Beal -- picked 3d in the draft, an established multiple-time all star.

As if the light that Brad shines somehow turns up Rui's bulb.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Tommy needs to save Brooks from himself. Trade IT for top 58 protected pick.

[Ruzious]

Hard for me to understand why to tell the truth. You would like to see him do at least one thing extremely well. But there isn't one; not even close.

He does shoot the 3 reasonably well. But... I can't imagine predicting anything great for him off of that.

You should watch him play. He has the potential to be as good defensively as any big in the NBA. His ability to mirror offensive players and not let them get by him is as good as it gets, imo. He needs to get stronger to get there, and that should happen with time.

I have watched him play! He's unbelievably gifted, no doubt about it. & you are right too that at 20 years old he has time to realize that potential. Ceiling above the clouds... But, you know... until you do it you haven't done it & some guys never do.

Lol, you just said you can't imagine him becoming a star, and now you're saying celing above the clouds - with the only caveat that he hasn't done it yet at age 20. Do you see how talking with you gets frustrating at times?

[pcbothwel]

Tommy needs to save Brooks from himself. Trade IT for top 58 protected pick.

Hell no. IT is the tank commander and its not like he is taking away minutes from some PG prospect. I mean, I like Robinson, but Im good with IT.

[payitforward]

You should watch him play. He has the potential to be as good defensively as any big in the NBA. His ability to mirror offensive players and not let them get by him is as good as it gets, imo. He needs to get stronger to get there, and that should happen with time.

I have watched him play! He's unbelievably gifted, no doubt about it. & you are right too that at 20 years old he has time to realize that potential. Ceiling above the clouds... But, you know... until you do it you haven't done it & some guys never do.

Lol, you just said you can't imagine him becoming a star, and now you're saying celing above the clouds - with the only caveat that he hasn't done it yet at age 20. Do you see how talking with you gets frustrating at times?

You should try being me....!

W/o looking back, I think I wrote, i.e. meant to say, that I couldn't imagine calling him a potential star based on what he's done so far. No doubt I wasn't clear enough.

[Ruzious]

I have watched him play! He's unbelievably gifted, no doubt about it. & you are right too that at 20 years old he has time to realize that potential. Ceiling above the clouds... But, you know... until you do it you haven't done it & some guys never do.

Lol, you just said you can't imagine him becoming a star, and now you're saying celing above the clouds - with the only caveat that he hasn't done it yet at age 20. Do you see how talking with you gets frustrating at times?

You should try being me....!

W/o looking back, I think I wrote, i.e. meant to say, that I couldn't imagine calling him a potential star based on what he's done so far. No doubt I wasn't clear enough.

Ehhh, I'll have to chalk it up as a Pifism.

[payitforward]

The devil made me do it....

[Ruzious]

The devil made me do it....

Speaking of Geraldine, I liked Flip Wilson as a kid, but he went from funny and charismatic to losing his jumpshot as quick as you can say Bill Cosby.

[payitforward]

"Low Ceiling" players fall all the time and while some end up like Nance and keep getting better, others flash for a short time and then flatten/regress.
Remember how everyone felt about Jordan Bell, RHJ, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Gary Harris, Kuzma, and Kyle Anderson their first 2-3 years? Bell went from the steal of the draft to unplayable. Gary Harris and Richardson ... now they're fringe starters...

I don't bring this up in re: this draft, Clarke, Rui, etc... but rather just to point out that I think this is misleading. E.g.

Bell has been injured -- read the following: http://www.startribune.com/jordan-bell-s-play-for-the-timberwolves-against-the-suns-was-step-in-right-direction/565405902/

Holmes is quite a good player, actually -- solid & a producer (as we saw last night). He's very good value too.

Josh Richardson -- "fringe starter" may even be a little generous. But... for sure, he is an above average NBA player overall. He's played over 8000 minutes in 4 seasons & has logged 450 minutes already this year. For a guy picked #40 in the draft, I would say he's out-performed expectations rather than falling flat.

Kyle Anderson is better than Richardson. Kuzma was never good; not his rookie year or since.

Gary Harris might be the only one on your list who even vaguely support your model of a "low ceiling" player who starts out good & then flattens. GH has fallen off after a few good years. He seems to have forgotten how to shoot.

If you were looking for a guy who had tremendous college numbers (as Clarke did) but who has failed in the league, a guy who didn't play last night, Caleb Swanigan, would be a better choice. But, of course, he doesn't work either -- he came into the league & busted immediately, where Clarke has come into the league & immediately been a force.

In short, your first sentence above about "low ceiling" players -- by whom you simply seem to mean later draft picks or maybe older draft picks -- has no substance whatever. Correlates to no set of facts or players.

For every such player, if you can find any, I'll be happy to give you a worse example of a guy picked within the first 7-9 who was a total bust. After the first 3 guys picked in the drafts, the success curve at any pick position is quite close to the success curve at any other pick position well down into the draft.

[The Consiglieri]

No it isn't. Has 3 more years on his contract after this one . His contract is covered by insurance this year. Any trade made was money being spent anyway.you don't count this year in a trade only what's left unless it's a one year deal. Sure we wouldn't mind getting that money off the books early, but we aren't paying to do it not. And we arnt giving away that much! There is a good chance, wall will be tradable next year at much Let of a cost than you suggested or at a small gain. And if he doesn't ! So what. The team has prepared to eat his money and are prepared to rebuild with him as dead cap if needed. No need to waste young talent in this trade.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

You're not helping man, lol. We don't have to paint fantasy's of Wall getting back to a valued asset (almost zero chance, period), or even Wall just becoming a bad contract to show why his offer is horse ----. We aren't the Knicks. We are a team that did rock bottom pretty well these past six months, we didn't pull a Mahinmi again, we just gave Wall an extension that blew up in our face. We have to eat it now. The injury was catastrophic, we aren't trading him this year or next, the earliest we could trade him w/o sabotaging the rebuild would be in the winter of '21-'22 and even thats unlikely. Nobody will want to go anywhere near that contract, that's the one thing the Knick fan is right about. Everything else is absurd.

We eat the horrible contract, as we are, we hope we can get something out of him in '21 and beyond (a pipe dream to me, but a borderline startable asset might be possible, just not a tradable one w/that contract), and we continue the rebuild that's actually aided by the contract (a contract that bad is going to artificially push our win totals down in '20 and '21 and help us out w/draft slotting the next two years as a result hopefully adding another two highly valuable pieces (one can pray). But Wall and any ideas or perspectives w/regards to trading his deal are insane to me. IT ISNT HAPPENING. His contract isn't tradable w/o sabotaging everything.

I don't think what gambix777 said was fantasy.

While I agree that the odds are that we are stuck with Wall for the full duration of his contract, I think there is a possibility that he is movable before then. I think his situation will turn out much like Gordon Hayward. When he comes back in Game 42 this season, he will be a decent useful player, but wildly overpaid and still unmovable. But next year, he'll grow more confident in his Achilles and get his basketball rhythm back and start looking like something pretty close to his former self. He won't have positive value, but he might be movable if there's a desperate "win now" team who has filler contracts and no other way to improve themselves. There will be a window at the Trade Deadline in the 2020-21 season where he might be movable for expirings plus maybe on small, longer bad contract. Or if we really want to move him so that we're a player in 2021 free agency, we could conceivably attach a single protected future 1st to him and unload him.

I don't know if we're going to want to move him at the time. It'll depend on a lot of factors. But the possibility of moving him is definitely greater than zero.

I'll admit I was couching it a bit lazily. I also wasn't aware about the insurance angle (is it only insured for one year, how does that work)? I basically think a couple of things:

#1: I don't think he ever comes close to what he once was, though I do think he can come back in a similar way to Livingston, and become basically usable, and startable (he had more to work with than Livingston did pre-injury). I just think that the hopes that he can come back and be good to very good again are less than a coin flip, and the most likely scenario is that he's a declining player whose adequate as a starter but not a difference maker. Remember, the guy struggled to consistently come in fit, when he was healthy, and he also repeatedly didn't learn from examples instead seemingly choosing to resent the team success when he was absent. That doesn't suggest the mentality of a mature and wise player, it suggests an entitled one that simply isn't used to struggle (basically he reminded me A TON of Melo's ---- attitude coming back following Insanity and pretty much throughout his massively overrated career). Anyway, I'm probably engaging in Hyperbole in my negativity. I don't think it's a cataclysm, I just think the great player is almost certainly gone, and what's going to be left is likely the adequate to almost good player, w/the same crappy mentality, refusing to stare reality in the face. I don't trust his recovery angle as you do. Just watched the end of a budding successful career for D'Onta Foreman. He's never come fully back and that combined w/a seemingly sketchy attitude has totally derailed his career. I don't think Wall's necessarily on the same tracks, Foreman was never able to even produce a good half season let alone a good decade of seasons after all, but I think far too many people are banking on sunny results for his rehab in the short and long term, and far too sunny in my view.

#2: I don't think his contract is really tradable till at the earliest, the '22 deadline. I have a really, really hard time seeing anyone wanting to carry that for more than 1.5 seasons. Bad teams usually eat bad contracts for a year to a year and a half if memory serves. I've rarely if ever seen teams willing to pick up just a pile of bad years on a deal unless they're getting an absolute motherlode of picks to do such a deal (and that would defeat the purpose of such a trade for us, since, if we're sane, we're following a 3-4 year rebuild plan that probably hopes to bear playoff caliber fruit in the spring of '22, not the spring of '21. I assume that's part of the reason they brought in Sashi Brown, to help design how we use assets going forward over the next 2-3 years to maximize opportunities for net gains.

So yeah, I guess I wouldn't put moving his deal at a zero, but I'd put it at a zero for the year 2020, and no better than 10-15% in 2021, it's 2022 where I think it could jump to 25-35%.

[The Consiglieri]

...As a curiosity -- on draft night this year, would you have swapped the #s 20 & 22 picks for our #9 pick? Maybe also giving us a R2 pick in, say, 2021? ...do you think Danny would have made that move?

I would have made that deal. No question.

Not sure if danny would do it. He loves his 3 wing lineups. I prefer a real power forward as opposed to a sf playing there...so..

Thanks.

I proposed that deal here repeatedly w/o a huge amount of support. I would have taken Brandon Clarke @#20, then Thybulle @#22 & done the same deal Danny did with Philly. @#24 I'd have taken Keldon Johnson. @#33 I'm less sure who I'd have picked -- hadn't made up my mind. Say Edwards as a place-holder.

Would have been a haul.

A couple of thoughts and quibbles.

#1: I disagreed with your idea at the time. Thought it was idiotic. I don't like the idea of pinning hopes on an elite guy falling in a bad draft w/few elite options. When you look through the back ends of drafts over the years it's a wasteland with some hits, but the hits tend to be incredibly unpredictable, rather than following any preset standard (like my love of taking guys who had a bad final year but a top 10 or so pre-final year ranking in the NFL, that actually does have an interesting track record, especially w/young prospects, w/the NBA, I haven't really noticed clear patterns on why some hit and some don't in that 20-40ish zone).

#2: If I had known Clarke would've been available and our GM would've taken him, I absolutely would've done it (however can you imagine us doing that trade down, and then passing on Clarke, how many things in your house would you have broken in that scenario, would you have gone "my brother" style, and kicked one fan off a balcony, and thrown another out the window and into a neighboring parking lot (after the bad snap that cost us the divisional playoff game against Tampa in '99).

#3 I don't normally think this way w/regards to my own, "why the hell didn't we do that scenario," but it's worth noting that if we trade down, it inevitably shifts how the rest of the draft plays out so that some players that were available in this scenario where we picked Rui, wouldn't be available in the different scenario where we traded down instead. Maybe Clarke's there, maybe he isn't, maybe some other guys are there, maybe they aren't, who knows?

[payitforward]

The devil made me do it....

Speaking of Geraldine, I liked Flip Wilson as a kid, but he went from funny and charismatic to losing his jumpshot as quick as you can say Bill Cosby.

As is often the case, you are so right!

[prime1time]

What do people think about Mo Bamba? He obviously has no future in Orlando with them resigning Vucevic.

[pcbothwel]

What do people think about Mo Bamba? He obviously has no future in Orlando with them resigning Vucevic.

Really liked him out of college... But with Bryant and Wagner I have zero interest in Centers.

If we were to move either this summer I would look to backfill with an elite/rangy defender like Noel

[payitforward]

I would have made that deal. No question.

Not sure if danny would do it. He loves his 3 wing lineups. I prefer a real power forward as opposed to a sf playing there...so..

Thanks.

I proposed that deal here repeatedly w/o a huge amount of support. I would have taken Brandon Clarke @#20, then Thybulle @#22 & done the same deal Danny did with Philly. @#24 I'd have taken Keldon Johnson. @#33 I'm less sure who I'd have picked -- hadn't made up my mind. Say Edwards as a place-holder.

Would have been a haul.

A couple of thoughts and quibbles.

#1: I disagreed with your idea at the time. Thought it was idiotic. I don't like the idea of pinning hopes on an elite guy falling in a bad draft w/few elite options. When you look through the back ends of drafts over the years it's a wasteland with some hits, but the hits tend to be incredibly unpredictable, rather than following any preset standard (like my love of taking guys who had a bad final year but a top 10 or so pre-final year ranking in the NFL, that actually does have an interesting track record, especially w/young prospects, w/the NBA, I haven't really noticed clear patterns on why some hit and some don't in that 20-40ish zone).

#2: If I had known Clarke would've been available and our GM would've taken him, I absolutely would've done it (however can you imagine us doing that trade down, and then passing on Clarke, how many things in your house would you have broken in that scenario, would you have gone "my brother" style, and kicked one fan off a balcony, and thrown another out the window and into a neighboring parking lot (after the bad snap that cost us the divisional playoff game against Tampa in '99).

#3 I don't normally think this way w/regards to my own, "why the hell didn't we do that scenario," but it's worth noting that if we trade down, it inevitably shifts how the rest of the draft plays out so that some players that were available in this scenario where we picked Rui, wouldn't be available in the different scenario where we traded down instead. Maybe Clarke's there, maybe he isn't, maybe some other guys are there, maybe they aren't, who knows?

This last paragraph of your critique is entirely valid. You can't know who's going to be available when. If we'd traded down, we might easily have had to take someone other than Clarke at #20.

But even if Clarke had been gone, the rest of the available players could only have shifted by that 1 change. I can imagine, for example, that SA might have taken him. In which case, we might have been left with either Bitadze or Samanic.

If, OTOH, the order had shifted more than that -- more than just Clarke being taken somewhere before #20, the result would have to be that more guys who in fact were taken before #20 would be available. It's pointless to speculate who that might have been. I mean... once you're speculating you also have to include the possibility that Rui would have been there at #20 ! .

Your informal observations on the draft overall, however, are wrong -- plain & simple.

For starters, there's no reason to think you get "an elite guy" at the #9 spot, & so far there's no indication that we did this year! If you want to make it a foregone conclusion that Rui Hachimura will be an elite player, fine, I can't stop you. But, last night he was easily outplayed by Cam Johnson, a guy people expected to go in the '20s. Johnson's been better on the season so far as well.

As for "the back ends of drafts (being) ...a wasteland," sorry but no. No more that is than the front end of drafts (after the #3 pick), & certainly no more than the #9 pick! & that's leaving out the point that trading down gives you more picks, increasing your odds of coming away with a valuable player.

To put it concretely, let me ask you this: in how many drafts would you have been better off owning the #2 pick vs. the # 15 & #30 pick? I.e. the guy taken #2 vs. the best players available at #s 15 & 30?

Let's see... not in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017... I'll stop there. Now, that doesn't mean a GM would have known to pick the best guys on the board at #15 & #30. Of course not -- especially since they don't know to pick the best guy on the board at #2 !! Duh. So, if you get two shots, at least the numbers are on your side. Chance is helping you some.

As to the guys taken #9 in those years Demar DeRozan, D.J. Augustin, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Andre Drummond, Trey Burke, Noah Vonleh, Frank Kaminsky, Jakob Poeltl, & Dennis Smith.

That's pretty good -- 5 "elite guys" out of 10 picks. The problem is that these picks themselves aren't really evidence of skill! They aren't evidence of anything but chance!

After all, for example, the 3 guys taken directly before Kemba Walker in 2011 were Brandon Knight, Bismack Biyombo & Jan Vesely. Not to mention that the 4 of the 5 who followed Walker were Jimmer Fredette, Alec Burks & the Marcus twins. Only then did Kawhi Leonard get picked. & then we had to wait another 15 picks to hear Jimmy Butler's name called.

Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn (you remember him, don't you?), & Jordan Hill went before DeRozan in '09.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson & Terrence Ross were picked before Drummond heard his name in '12. Then someone nabbed Austin Rivers, & we waited 25 more picks before Draymond Green was taken.

Oh, and in 2010, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Ekbe Udoh, & Al-Farouk Aminu went before Gordon Hayward. Hell, Hayward went before Paul George!! After that, we had to wait 7 picks before Bledsoe was taken. Off the top of your head do you recall who any of those 7 were? Or, how about the 17 picks between Bledsoe & Lance Stephenson (#40)? Remember who any of them?

No one would expect you (or anyone but a whack job like me) to remember any of those guys were!

The short version of the truth is simple: over time there's no advantage to having the #9 pick over having, say the #20 & #22 pick. This year is a perfect example of that fact. Got nothing to do with Rui. Everything to do with how the world works. Period.

[prime1time]

What do people think about Mo Bamba? He obviously has no future in Orlando with them resigning Vucevic.

Really liked him out of college... But with Bryant and Wagner I have zero interest in Centers.

If we were to move either this summer I would look to backfill with an elite/rangy defender like Noel

Do you think Bryant and Wagner are the long term answer? Bomba's defensive potential makes him a potential solution IMO. I have more confidence in Bamba has his ridiculous wingspan than either Wagner or Bryant. I see both of them as good role players off the bench, but not really starting centers on a championship squad.

[nate33]

What do people think about Mo Bamba? He obviously has no future in Orlando with them resigning Vucevic.

Really liked him out of college... But with Bryant and Wagner I have zero interest in Centers.

If we were to move either this summer I would look to backfill with an elite/rangy defender like Noel

Do you think Bryant and Wagner are the long term answer? Bomba's defensive potential makes him a potential solution IMO. I have more confidence in Bamba has his ridiculous wingspan than either Wagner or Bryant. I see both of them as good role players off the bench, but not really starting centers on a championship squad.

While I share your concerns that neither Bryant nor Wagner will pan out to be championship caliber centers, I don't think that Bomba is the solution. If he does develop into a good player, it's going to take a long time. The guy is raw as hell.

I certainly wouldn't trade for him. He might be a guy to target when he hits restricted free agency if we think he'll be a late bloomer.

[payitforward]

I was really high on Mo Bamba before last year's draft. He is an incredibly smart kid & has special size, etc.

Yet last year -- & especially this year -- Bamba's numbers are really strange. A weird pattern. He rebounds very well. He's taught himself to shoot the 3: shoots over 5 per 40 minutes at 38%. He blocks 3.5 shots per 40 minutes. That's all great.

Then there's the weird stuff: Bamba shot 58.7% from the line last year. This year he's at 33.3% (!). Plus, he is shooting 2-pointers at 40% -- what's up with that? -- while per 40 minutes he turns the ball over 3.33 times & commits 5.85 fouls.

I don't remember ever seeing a pattern of numbers quite like that.

[nate33]

Yet last year -- & especially this year -- Bamba's numbers are really strange. A weird pattern. He rebounds very well. He's taught himself to shoot the 3: shoots over 5 per 40 minutes at 38%. He blocks 3.5 shots per 40 minutes. That's all great.

Prior to his last game Wednesday night, he was shooting .250 from 3-point range, making a total of 6 out of 24 attempts. He had a fluke 5-5 shooting night on Wednesday, bringing his average up to 38%. I'm not sure we have enough of a sample size to indicate whether that number is predictive, particularly when you factor his FT%.

The other frightening stat is that he has attempts just 1.3 FT's per 100 possessions.

So far, there's not much to indicate that he's anything other than a bust. Ultimately, given that Orlando has $25M a year tied up in Vucevic, I don't think they'll be inclined to pay him very much on his next contract. If he shows some signs of developing over the next 2 years, I think the way to get him is to go after him as a restricted free agent.

[payitforward]

Agreed. If we go after him at all, that is. Which I don't particularly see. I don't think Bryant is going anywhere, & if Mo pans out then we have 2 young guys. We would be unlikely to want Bamba as a third. Noel would be an obvious target.