Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 IV: The Offense is Offensive

[Def Swami]

Almost 2 weeks away from December 15th, when most free agents signed in the off-season become available for trade. I anticipate trade talks will heat up around then.

In the mean time, we remain last in ppg, 3FG%, ORTG, TS%, and eFG% after 18 games.

[Xatticus]

Coincidence after getting highly paid in a contract year?

Possibly.

Or Ross could be more banged up than he and the team have told the public.

Or the guy could just be missing jump shots he's fully capable of making.

Ross is 21.2% on open threes this year. There's just no way that's going to continue.

Ross is a career 37% 3PT shooter. He's been over 35% five of the last six years. He's under 28% right now.

Ross is a career 41% shooter from midrange. 44% the last five years. He's under 35% right now.

I'm just hard pressed to believe at age 28 that his skills have just gone away. This isn't even his first contract.

I really don't think the contract-year stuff has a lot to do with in-game effort. I think guys take a more professional approach to contract seasons. They might put in the work before the season. They may give more attention to their diet or sleep. Maybe they spend more time in the film room. Maybe they just stay away from the night life when they travel. There are all sorts of things that players can do away from the court that impact on-court performance and there is a big financial incentive to get more professional leading up to free agency. Djokovic was always immensely talented, but he credited his run of dominance to his improved professionalism, specifically his diet and fitness.

I'm not saying any of these apply to Ross or Vucevic, but I do believe that the contract-year bounce is a real thing. I think teams get suckered into giving out big contracts by telling themselves that 'player X' has turned a corner and we can't compete without said player. Regardless, both players had career years and regression should've been the expectation.

[VFX]

Coincidence after getting highly paid in a contract year?

Possibly.

Or Ross could be more banged up than he and the team have told the public.

Or the guy could just be missing jump shots he's fully capable of making.

Ross is 21.2% on open threes this year. There's just no way that's going to continue.

Ross is a career 37% 3PT shooter. He's been over 35% five of the last six years. He's under 28% right now.

Ross is a career 41% shooter from midrange. 44% the last five years. He's under 35% right now.

I'm just hard pressed to believe at age 28 that his skills have just gone away. This isn't even his first contract.

I really don't think the contract-year stuff has a lot to do with in-game effort. I think guys take a more professional approach to contract seasons. They might put in the work before the season. They may give more attention to their diet or sleep. Maybe they spend more time in the film room. Maybe they just stay away from the night life when they travel. There are all sorts of things that players can do away from the court that impact on-court performance and there is a big financial incentive to get more professional leading up to free agency. Djokovic was always immensely talented, but he credited his run of dominance to his improved professionalism, specifically his diet and fitness.

I'm not saying any of these apply to Ross or Vucevic, but I do believe that the contract-year bounce is a real thing. I think teams get suckered into giving out big contracts by telling themselves that 'player X' has turned a corner and we can't compete without said player. Regardless, both players had career years and regression should've been the expectation.

It wouldn’t be as emphasized if it wasn’t such a huge regression to both of them compared to the level they carried this team last season. Not saying there were many other alternatives, but it’s still a bad look if we factor in being injury free and consistent from last year as our main selling points.

[zaymon]

I think we paid fair value for Ross and got discount on Vucevic. Lamb got 10,5 M and Redick got 13,5 M. 12 M for Ross who has great chemistry and wants to be here is fair value.

[pepe1991]

Ross takes same shots as last year, this year just misses them.
When you sign player that is notorious with inconsistency through his whole career you get what you payed for.
Also teams ain't stupid, they know that he will come off screen and shoot. Everybody knows how to play him.


In mean time playing with Bamba, Aminu, Iwundu, MCW and other bench scrubs probably doesn't help as he and now DJ are only scoring treats.

[basketballRob]

What's up with MCW's hip? Hopefully it's doesn't end up like the Isaiah Thomas injury.

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[Bergmaniac]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently. Pretty embarrassing for the front office, especially given that it's easier than ever to find cheap bench scorers and shooters in the NBA.

[GelbeWand09]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a below TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently.

Because we played a ton of other trash teams & a lotta home games. Our biggest win so far, is beating Philly without Embiid.

Its amazing, that a team like ours, probablly still is in striking distance of the 8th place, when Vuc comes back in 3-4 weeks. The east is really comical bad behind the Nets. Maybe 36 wins are already enough for the 8th place this year.

Atlanta is giving up like 150 points per game, since Collins ban. While playing 2 of the 5 worst defenders in the NBA and the worst rotation player in the leaque gets like 25 min per game.

Chicago shoots around 20% on open 3's, Lauri plays like 7ft DSJ, Coby White is the most hot & cold player i've seen in a long time, while doing nothing else on the court, Zach is great on offense, but got terrible IQ & defense + the worst coach in the leaque

Detroit had tons of injuries, Blake still looks like 50%, Rose can only score, they have no shooting except Kennard, who is one of the 5 worst defenders in the leaque, guy like Thon Maker, Frazier & Bruce Brown are in there rotation.

Knicks have 5 PF's, a SG who shoots 50% from the line, 3 PG's worse than DJ, top 5 worst coach

Thats our competition for the 8th seed

The rebuilding Hornets, who were projected as the worst team in the leaque, is probably the biggest threat now. Only because they are the only ''modern'' team & got like 6 players shooting over 36% from 3 on mid to high volume.

[PrimeThyme]

A lot of guard talent in that top 10 this year.. All the regression we've seen from the vets and injuries we've had may not be the worst worst-case scenario if we end up getting a high lottery pick. Trade off a few of these vets and lean heavily on Fultz/Isaac/Bamba and we should be right in the mix. Add a combo guard like Edwards to play next to Fultz and go into the following year with a promising young core and a ton of cap space that summer and we may be back in business.

This is all a pipe dream of course. Our organization has too much "pride" to do what it takes to get a top lottery pick. We are much more content with the treadmill we committed to being on for the foreseeable future last summer.

[GelbeWand09]

A lot of guard talent in that top 10 this year.. All the regression we've seen from the vets and injuries we've had may not be the worst worst-case scenario if we end up getting a high lottery pick. Trade off a few of these vets and lean heavily on Fultz/Isaac/Bamba and we should be right in the mix. Add a combo guard like Edwards to play next to Fultz and go into the following year with a promising young core and a ton of cap space that summer and we may be back in business.

This is all a pipe dream of course. Our organization has too much "pride" to do what it takes to get a top lottery pick. We are much more content with the treadmill we committed to being on for the foreseeable future last summer.

Would be my dream scenario. Having 2 young high ceiling guard prospects, in addition to our frontcourt. I just don't see it happening. With Vuc we are still a 50% team. We gonna win again a ton of games vs. all the tanking & load management teams over the last 2 months. Our ''Worst'' case is probably 9th in the east & ''best'' case 8th

[zaymon]

A lot of guard talent in that top 10 this year.. All the regression we've seen from the vets and injuries we've had may not be the worst worst-case scenario if we end up getting a high lottery pick. Trade off a few of these vets and lean heavily on Fultz/Isaac/Bamba and we should be right in the mix. Add a combo guard like Edwards to play next to Fultz and go into the following year with a promising young core and a ton of cap space that summer and we may be back in business.

This is all a pipe dream of course. Our organization has too much "pride" to do what it takes to get a top lottery pick. We are much more content with the treadmill we committed to being on for the foreseeable future last summer.

Would be my dream scenario. Having 2 young high ceiling guard prospects, in addition to our frontcourt. I just don't see it happening. With Vuc we are still a 50% team. We gonna win again a ton of games vs. all the tanking & load management teams over the last 2 months. Our ''Worst'' case is probably 9th in the east & ''best'' case 8th

I think there will be intresting guard prospect at 16-20. Hayes, Haliburton. Augustin is running out of gas and we need more off the dribble shooting and dynamic play making

[fendilim]

Lamelo

[Xatticus]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently. Pretty embarrassing for the front office, especially given that it's easier than ever to find cheap bench scorers and shooters in the NBA.

Our bench has been awful since Fultz went into the starting lineup. Augustin is just an awful player without Vucevic on the floor with him.

[Bergmaniac]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently. Pretty embarrassing for the front office, especially given that it's easier than ever to find cheap bench scorers and shooters in the NBA.

Our bench has been awful since Fultz went into the starting lineup. Augustin is just an awful player without Vucevic on the floor with him.

They were terrible offensively with Fultz too. Our offensive rating in the first 5 games when Vucevic was on the bench was 83.1. The Fultz-Aminu-Ross 3 men lineup had a ORTG of 84.7 in these games.

[KillMonger]

this draft is hella weak to me this class.....tank for what? to me i see maybe a couple all-stars but at this point i'm not seeing a franchise changer in this draft.

[IllMagic04]

this draft is hella weak to me this class.....tank for what? to me i see maybe a couple all-stars but at this point i'm not seeing a franchise changer in this draft.

People say that every year and its almost always wrong.

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[Xatticus]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a below TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently.

Because we played a ton of other trash teams & a lotta home games. Our biggest win so far, is beating Philly without Embiid.

Its amazing, that a team like ours, probablly still is in striking distance of the 8th place, when Vuc comes back in 3-4 weeks. The east is really comical bad behind the Nets. Maybe 36 wins are already enough for the 8th place this year.

Atlanta is giving up like 150 points per game, since Collins ban. While playing 2 of the 5 worst defenders in the NBA and the worst rotation player in the leaque gets like 25 min per game.

Chicago shoots around 20% on open 3's, Lauri plays like 7ft DSJ, Coby White is the most hot & cold player i've seen in a long time, while doing nothing else on the court, Zach is great on offense, but got terrible IQ & defense + the worst coach in the leaque

Detroit had tons of injuries, Blake still looks like 50%, Rose can only score, they have no shooting except Kennard, who is one of the 5 worst defenders in the leaque, guy like Thon Maker, Frazier & Bruce Brown are in there rotation.

Knicks have 5 PF's, a SG who shoots 50% from the line, 3 PG's worse than DJ, top 5 worst coach

Thats our competition for the 8th seed

The rebuilding Hornets, who were projected as the worst team in the leaque, is probably the biggest threat now. Only because they are the only ''modern'' team & got like 6 players shooting over 36% from 3 on mid to high volume.

It's a near certainty that we won't fall out of the playoff race. That's unfortunate, I think. It will allow our front office to keep their heads buried in the sand while they wait for us to get healthy. If the season was lost, I think we'd have to think very critically about the long-term viability of this roster. As it is, we will just wait to get healthy and fight for that 8th seed, since the playoffs were the objective from the start.

[zaymon]

this draft is hella weak to me this class.....tank for what? to me i see maybe a couple all-stars but at this point i'm not seeing a franchise changer in this draft.

People say that every year and its almost always wrong.

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This draft have many potential lead ball handlers and thats what nba is all about right now. Look at second round Graham. I think we will find a fine player. Hammond and Weltman are better when they draft later, drafting on potential is always unknown.

[Xatticus]

Our bench unit is breaking records for scoring incompetence. 18 games in and not a single one of them has a TS% over 50%, which in the current NBA is the bare minimum for being not dreadful as a scorer, especially when you play against second units. We currently have 6 rotation players with a TS% below 50% and only one who is above the league average. It's somewhat amazing we haven't lost more games, especially since our defense isn't in Top 10 currently. Pretty embarrassing for the front office, especially given that it's easier than ever to find cheap bench scorers and shooters in the NBA.

Our bench has been awful since Fultz went into the starting lineup. Augustin is just an awful player without Vucevic on the floor with him.

They were terrible offensively with Fultz too. Our offensive rating in the first 5 games when Vucevic was on the bench was 83.1. The Fultz-Aminu-Ross 3 men lineup had a ORTG of 84.7 in these games.

But they were playing defense. Our bench got scorched by Milwaukee, but they had otherwise held their own. It's been a weak point since Augustin joined the second unit. Fultz has simply been better than Augustin, but it's more than this. Augustin's only real value comes from pick-and-roll plays with Vucevic. He is a terrible defender and if he is a negative offensive player as well (which he has been), there is no chance for the second unit to succeed.

[Def Swami]

Agreed in that I don't believe "making the playoffs" should be a benchmark for this team's success, especially if we're doing so while going sub-.500. But I am certain that there is a mandate to make the playoffs at all costs by ownership and season ticket holders.