Rui Hachimura

payitforward · Post #941 » by **payitforward** » Mon Dec 2, 2019 10:17 pm

Rui had a nice game last night -- great to see that. May he have many more! Of course, it was also pleasing that Kawhi & PG had positive things to say about him.

OTOH, that's what you'd expect them to say about a rookie -- surely you wouldn't expect them to say not-nice things about him? Even if he hadn't just had his best game of the season against them?

I want Rui to be tremendous. I want him to be the best player drafted this year. &, even leaving that aside, the more good games he has the happier I, & all of us, will be.

Here's hoping that's how it turns out.

payitforward · Post #942 » by **payitforward** » Tue Dec 3, 2019 12:50 am

Illmatic12 wrote:Huge game, and very pleased recently that he's doing more "filling the box score" type production than in college ...

Huh! Are you sure about this? It is extremely rare for a rookie to equal the stats he put up in college -- for reasons that must be obvious! & after a quick look, it doesn't seem to be the case for Rui. E.g., here are his per 40 minute numbers for the previous 6 games before last night -- followed by his per 40 minutes at Gonzaga last year:

17.85 points (26.1)
7/16.7 on FGAs (9.8/16.7)
3.24/3.78 FTs (5.9/7.9)
8.38 boards (8.6)
1.62 assists (2)
1.35 steals (1.3)
1.08 turnovers (2.4)
.54 blocks (1)
3.5 fouls (2.6)

TOs are better this year than last, but nothing else. Of course, these are "recently" numbers. Yet, on the season the story is no different.

No surprise. For that matter, you'd find the same thing to be true of Ja Morant! I don't think even Clarke is an exception, b/c of how incredible his college numbers were.

Post #943 » by **nate33** » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:34 am

nate33 wrote:Hachimura needs to exchange some fouls for more steals and blocks. His foul rate is too low, indicating he is too conservative on defense. He needs to be more aggressive: reach in more and try and take more charges.

Rui was averaging 0.5 steals per 36 minutes when I posted this.

Since then, he has averaged a very respectable 1.3 steals per 36 minutes.

payitforward · Post #944 » by **payitforward** » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:55 am

nate33 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Hachimura needs to exchange some fouls for more steals and blocks. His foul rate is too low, indicating he is too conservative on defense. He needs to be more aggressive: reach in more and try and take more charges.

Rui was averaging 0.5 steals per 36 minutes when I posted this.

Since then, he has averaged a very respectable 1.3 steals per 36 minutes.

Actually, he's just slightly better in steals than an average 4 -- on the whole season so far. He's significantly better than average on TOs as well. & he fouls less than average -- but not so rarely that he needs to foul more.

Rui's problems so far are that he's a significantly sub-standard rebounder (not nearly as good, for example, as the so-called "weak" Troy Brown) -- especially on the defensive end -- & that he shoots a below-average 2pt. % & an extremely low 3 pt. %.

When we see these problems start to go away, we can be more unreservedly optimistic about him.

WallToWall · Post #945 » by **WallToWall** » Tue Dec 3, 2019 4:51 am

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Hachimura needs to exchange some fouls for more steals and blocks. His foul rate is too low, indicating he is too conservative on defense. He needs to be more aggressive: reach in more and try and take more charges.

Rui was averaging 0.5 steals per 36 minutes when I posted this.

Since then, he has averaged a very respectable 1.3 steals per 36 minutes.

Actually, he's just slightly better in steals than an average 4 -- on the whole season so far. He's significantly better than average on TOs as well. & he fouls less than average -- but not so rarely that he needs to foul more.

Rui's problems so far are that he's a significantly sub-standard rebounder (not nearly as good, for example, as the so-called "weak" Troy Brown) -- especially on the defensive end -- & that he shoots a below-average 2pt. % & an extremely low 3 pt. %.

When we see these problems start to go away, we can be more unreservedly optimistic about him.

PIF -are you look ing at per-36 as well?
I've been gauging him with per-36 and comparing against other forwards with at least 360 mins played. With those constraints, he seems to be at least average given the stats on nba.com. Is there a better way to gauge?

payitforward · Post #946 » by **payitforward** » Tue Dec 3, 2019 9:35 pm

I usually use per 40 minutes but obviously that makes no difference!

Given that better players usually play more than worse ones, it's unfair to compare Rui to guys who've played a lot; it is likely to make him look worse.

Lets just compare his numbers to the average of all NBA PFs; that way you see where he is on the bell-shaped curve of productivity.

Rui is a below-average scorer: he clocks @ 1.1+ more points per 36 minutes than average. But to get there, he uses @3.5 more possessions than average. Hence his TS% is a fair amount below average for a 4.

He's also below average in defensive rebounding & offensive rebounding. In addition, he's below average in assists for a 4. & way below average in blocks. He makes up for some of these bad numbers with low turnovers & relatively low fouls. But overall he is still substantially below average.

Keep in mind that he is a rookie. You don't expect rookies to immediately post average or better numbers.

All the same, so far 8 rookie PFs have played 250 minutes or more: Bazley, Clarke, Hachimura, Hunter, Johnson, Paschall, Washington & Williams. So far, Bazley, Clarke, Johnson, Paschall & Washington have put up better numbers than Rui, while Rui has been better so far than Hunter & Williams. Of those guys, only Hunter was chosen before Rui.

Note that of the top 10 picks in the 2019 draft, Williamson hasn't played, Morant has been great except for turnovers, & Hayes has played well too. None of the other 7 has been good, & fully 5 of them -- Hunter, Garland, Culver, White & Reddish -- have been awful so far (which doesn't mean they will remain awful, of course).

BearlyBallin · Post #947 » by **BearlyBallin** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 2:59 am

Read on Twitter

?s=20

BearlyBallin · Post #948 » by **BearlyBallin** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 3:15 am

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #949 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 3:48 am

Dare I say the Wizards drafted well?!

Illmatic12 · Post #950 » by **Illmatic12** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 5:07 am

Hachimura looked like an all-around max player tonight. He went up against $180 million man Tobias Harris and basically played him to a standstill. And he came late to basketball like Siakam, with his tools there’s no telling what his potential is in 4-5 years.

I know it’s early but as long as he stays healthy, Rui could very well join that Otto/Tobias/Barnes/Jaylen Brown class of versatile wing who gets a 9-figure offer sheet. If I’m Leonsis, I’m breathing a sigh of relief Wall’s supermax ends before it’s time to extend Rui .. this kid is a walking $100M and he probably doesn’t even know it yet.

oldshoolballer · Post #951 » by **oldshoolballer** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 5:21 am

DCZards wrote:
"He's good. He's very fundamentally sound. He has the tools to get to his spots. Once he gets more games under his belt, and finds his attack spots, he can only get better."

This assessment from Kawhi is right on target...and it's especially insightful coming from a guy who may be the best in the league at finding "his attack spots."

Rui averaging 22/7 in the last 4 games on 53% shooting.After struggling some recently he's starting to look more comfortable.The 3 point shot is a work in progress,I think he will get better.Got to get better defensively,he's got the tools to be a good defender,he looks off balance and out of position a lot.It would be great if he can work out with Kawhi in the off season lol.But overall I really like him and glad Brooks stopped screwing with his minutes.

BearlyBallin · Post #952 » by **BearlyBallin** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 5:28 am

Watch on YouTube

BearlyBallin · Post #953 » by **BearlyBallin** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 12:36 pm

I've copied this from the 76'ers GT.

nate33 wrote:Over the last 4 games, Hachimura has averaged 22 points, 7.5 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 turnover on a TS% of .600

Post #954 » by **nate33** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 2:19 pm

BearlyBallin wrote:

Watch on YouTube

I missed most of the game. The highlights suggest that Hachimura did a pretty decent job defensively when he was matched up with Embiid. He fronted the post and the team swarmed Embiid enough to force 8 turnovers.

Is that what happened? Was Hachimura holding his own against Embiid or did Embiid just push him under the basket? If Hachimura could hold his ground, then it looks like we ought to consider playing Hachimura a lot more at center. He was having his way offensively against a slow-footed counterpart.

dobrojim · Post #955 » by **dobrojim** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 3:25 pm

I don't know that I go as far as saying he held his ground. He's giving up a lot
of pounds to Embiid. I wouldn't expect him to be able to do that.

payitforward · Post #956 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 4:24 pm

Moved this:

nate33 wrote:Over the last 4 games, Hachimura has averaged 22 points, 7.5 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 turnover on a TS% of .600

Aaah numbers, how I love them. I mean... even better, over the last 2 games, Rui has averaged 28.5 points a game. TS% = .647 !!

Which makes it easy to look past the fact that in the 4 games just prior to those 2, Rui averaged 11 points a game.

Lets look at all 6 of those games & see what information we can find:

1. For starters, Rui has averaged just under 17 points a game in that last stretch -- up from his overall average of just over 14 points a game on the season.
-- That's an improvement. Where has it come from?

2. Well, Rui's 36-55 on 2-pointers in that stretch -- 55.4% -- almost exactly the same as his overall season level of 55.2%.
-- So... not from there.

3. But, in the same stretch, he's 5-15 on 3 pointers -- 33%, which is significantly higher than his overall season rate of 22%. Since he's only taken 41 all season, we can see that before the last 6 games, he'd made just 4 of his first 26 3-point attempts.
-- There it is! A very nice % jump on the last big bunch of 3-pointers!

4. To me, this is where the information lies in Rui's performance over the last 6 of his 20 games as a rookie: Rui is learning to shoot the 3.

Since that skill is absolutely crucial to his ceiling as an NBA player, it's very good news!

Back to these last 2 high-scoring games vs. the Sixers & Clips for a moment. They do show where Rui's single biggest problem lies: in 81 minutes he managed 16 rebounds. Which is just about at his average rate so far.

There is no way he'll be a successful 4 in this league rebounding like that. Period. So, aside from looking for the 3 pt. shooting to continue to improve, we have to look for his rebounding to improve.

I_Like_Dirt · Post #957 » by **I_Like_Dirt** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 5:24 pm

payitforward wrote:There is no way he'll be a successful 4 in this league rebounding like that. Period. So, aside from looking for the 3 pt. shooting to continue to improve, we have to look for his rebounding to improve.

Rebounding is quite possibly the most overblown statistic in the game today. Collective team rebounding is what matters and players going for their own rebounds at the expense of the team hurts teams more than grabbing a bunch of individual rebounds helps. You can still get your best rebounders to get boards based on a system designed to do that but a lot of good teams are really spreading things around on the rebounding front and finding success that way.

Rui Hachimura currently has a TRB% of 10.8%
Pascal Siakam currently has a TRB% of 11.9%

Nevermind, I guess you're right. Rui is toast and will never recover from his horrible rebounding.

dckingsfan · Post #958 » by **dckingsfan** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 6:01 pm

Among rookies - Rui is 4th in defensive rebounding...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&type=advanced&season_start=1&season_end=1&draft_year=&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_active=&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&year_min=2020&year_max=2020&shoot_hand=&franch_id=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_hof=&college_id=&birth_state=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&award=&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=300&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c5val=&c6stat=&order_by=drb_pct

payitforward · Post #959 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 6:16 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
payitforward wrote:There is no way he'll be a successful 4 in this league rebounding like that. Period. So, aside from looking for the 3 pt. shooting to continue to improve, we have to look for his rebounding to improve.

Rebounding is quite possibly the most overblown statistic in the game today. Collective team rebounding is what matters and players going for their own rebounds at the expense of the team hurts teams more than grabbing a bunch of individual rebounds helps. You can still get your best rebounders to get boards based on a system designed to do that but a lot of good teams are really spreading things around on the rebounding front and finding success that way.

Rui Hachimura currently has a TRB% of 10.8%
Pascal Siakam currently has a TRB% of 11.9%

Nevermind, I guess you're right. Rui is toast and will never recover from his horrible rebounding.

Hey man... discussing this, even arguing about it based on data & analysis, is fun. Dismissive irony is unpleasant, however. I promise never to send any your way: do me the same?

Not only did I not say "Rui is toast," but I was documenting -- celebrating -- Rui's improvement in an area that I imagine you, I & everyone would agree is key to his future -- 3 pt. shooting.

Hence, your sarcastic "right" -- what's that about? You think it's a good thing that Rui has averaged 7.9 boards/40 minutes so far? Really? You don't think that's something to improve?

Of course, team rebounding is what matters! Duh. Only teams win games. That is more team rebounding is what matters. & if you can "...get boards based on a system designed to do that..." -- great! I assume that every team at least attempts to install such a "system," don't you?

Yet, players move from team to team & bring with them more or less the same levels of rebounding, so it's also a skill. Tho -- to my point about Rui -- young players are able to improve their rebounding as they develop & understand the NBA game better. Giannis was a worse rebounder than Rui as a rookie. This year he's getting almost 17 boards per 40 minutes.

I'm sure you agree that it would be easy to name some outstanding 4s who are really good rebounders. What I can't think of is some outstanding 4s who are poor rebounders. If you could name a few, I'd see that as a contribution to my understanding. I'm skeptical that you can.

I'd be equally interested in your list of guys who make a practice of "going for their own rebounds at the expense of the team...."

In short, I said "(7.91 boards per 40 minutes) -- There is no way he'll be a successful 4 in this league rebounding like that." Push come to shove, I bet the truth is that you agree with that statement.

Post #960 » by **Ruzious** » Fri Dec 6, 2019 6:20 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Among rookies - Rui is 4th in defensive rebounding...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&type=advanced&season_start=1&season_end=1&draft_year=&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_active=&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&year_min=2020&year_max=2020&shoot_hand=&franch_id=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_hof=&college_id=&birth_state=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&award=&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=300&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c5val=&c6stat=&order_by=drb_pct

And 3rd in offensive rebounding %. Check out Jaxon Hayes - 1st in offensive rebounding % but horrid in defensive rebound % - a young Kevin Seraphin.

Btw, Rui is better than Eric Paschall in both offensive % and defensive %.