2019-20 Offseason Thread

[agkagk]

I can already see the Jays ending up with a Lindblom, Pineda, Wiley, or Roark lol gonna be so disappointing and doesn't move the needle one bit..

Id actually be ok with that.

I dont think it makes sense to spend money for the sake of spending money.

That's a curious attitude. With the second lowest guaranteed payroll, why should we be concerned about saving Rogers money in order to watch more terrible baseball? As fans, don't we want to be entertained by a decent product?

I'm all about avoiding bad contracts and overspending, but if a premiere player wants to play in Toronto and there is an abundance of cap room to make it happen, the FO should absolutely pursue it. I'd love for us to have a genuine ace like the old days and let some of the kids battle it out for the 3-4-5 spots. I doubt it will happen, but I see no reason not to want it.

We're getting these kids to play for next to nothing right now and there's a reasonable chance of the offense being above average next year with a couple of moves and continued development. Who knows what could happen if we landed a bonafide starter and some additional pitching help.

The top tier can pick there spot and we aren’t it!

If we have to overpay for mid tier guys like wheeler or keuchel than I think we find much better value in the lower rung of free agency (which is loaded with talent in a way I can’t ever remember seeing before).

Overpaying wheeler on a multi year deal <<<<<< signing taijuan, alex wood AND wade Miley to multi year deals.

Can shatkins execute either of these scenarios? Hell no!

[Wo1verine]

Elite FAs almost always sign with the top bidder
Fake news to suggest that nobody would come here if we didn’t make them the richest offer.

[agkagk]

Elite FAs almost always sign with the top bidder
Fake news to suggest that nobody would come here if we didn’t make them the richest offer.

Don’t think your being realistic.

Cole and stras are the cream of the crop.

They’re picking their spot and we ain’t it.

The money is a given for them.

After that who is there, Madison baumgartner?

Is he even better than wade Miley who he will cost twice as much as?

Heck is paying wheeler 20+ for 5 years better than paying Miley 2/18?

[Wo1verine]

When it comes to this management and ownership you can’t be realIstic on signing anyone good these days in free agency.
Everyone thought Cole was going home to play in LA but chances are he’s going to NY because they’ll give him the most money.
Machado signed with **** SD just last off-season
Show people the money and they come here.

[agkagk]

When it comes to this management and ownership you can’t be realIstic on signing anyone good these days in free agency.
Everyone thought Cole was going home to play in LA but chances are he’s going to NY because they’ll give him the most money.
Machado signed with **** SD just last off-season
Show people the money and they come here.

Man I’d love to sign cole. He’s the only mega free agent pitcher I can think of in recent years that doesn’t have any worts.

He’s relatively young. No real injury concerns. Relatively low mileage, effortless looking mechanics.

If ever there was a Ufa pitcher to roll out the brinks truck for, he’s the guy.

I’m intrigued, what do you think it would cost to outbid the yanks?

[Schad]

Show people significantly more money than they can get with their preferred destination, sure. If we give Cole $350m over 10 years, he probably signs here. But is it a good idea to spend drastically above the odds? No, because no matter how much we dream about it, overspending on one player isn't going to lead us to spend $200m+ on payroll, and people drastically overrate how much of a difference one player, even an elite one, makes.

[Tanner]

In order for Atkins to sign a starter in this market he's going to have to make an offer that he doesn't particularly like. Maybe a year more than he wants, or a mil or two more in AAV. If he has a price point in mind and refuses to budge, then he'll be picking up what is left of the market when it dries up. Even Lindblom seems to have a market, so will Atkins pay him more than everyone else is willing to? That's what it will come down to. I questioned getting Chase Anderson so soon in the off season, but turns out it might have been the right call. FA's are getting paid again. Shatkins decided to sit on their hands when free agency was affordable, but now have money to spend in a year where free agents are getting paid a lot more.

[Schad]

If we're chasing the top end of the market, I think you're underestimating how much we'd likely have to overbid. An extra year for Cole: maybe? In part because that's likely to be in the range of $40m. Two, probably, but the downside risk of a 10 or 11 year deal for a hard-throwing pitcher is terrifying. An extra 3% in salary a year? Not going to be a difference-maker when several of the teams pursuing him are already championship-calibre.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

That's a thoroughly Rays-y trade. Pham's a very good player, but less valuable in a corner spot and getting more expensive. Renfroe is basically Grichuk, with the attendant upside and frustrations, and I wouldn't be surprised if they moved Edwards to CF and (if he handles it well) fast-tracking him, because they're pretty well stocked in MI options.

Blake Snell, however, isn't terribly impressed:

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[Black Watch]

I don’t see the point in going after a #3 or #4 starter. I’d rather not have a 10-13 win starter blocking a prospect this season when we won’t compete anyway. There are enough young arms to fill out the rotation and allow for development.

100%

[agkagk]

I don’t see the point in going after a #3 or #4 starter. I’d rather not have a 10-13 win starter blocking a prospect this season when we won’t compete anyway. There are enough young arms to fill out the rotation and allow for development.

100%

Our number two is some guy named wags.

We desperately need to add 400 innings to our rotation.

Why would a top free agent pick our roster as currently constructed?

[Tanner]

If we're chasing the top end of the market, I think you're underestimating how much we'd likely have to overbid. An extra year for Cole: maybe? In part because that's likely to be in the range of $40m. Two, probably, but the downside risk of a 10 or 11 year deal for a hard-throwing pitcher is terrifying. An extra 3% in salary a year? Not going to be a difference-maker when several of the teams pursuing him are already championship-calibre.

I'm talking about the average free agent, like say Kyle Gibson. If the Jays offered a 4th year, they probably would have gotten him, while simultaneously feeling uncomfortable for giving him that extra year right after the ink dried (not saying I wanted Gibson just using him as an example). If everyone is offering a player 4 years, then the Jays offering him 5 will make s significant difference. Media talks about Martin playing for his country when he signed here, but he got a 5th year from the Jays that no other team was going to touch. That's the only reason he signed.

[bluerap23]

I don’t see the point in going after a #3 or #4 starter. I’d rather not have a 10-13 win starter blocking a prospect this season when we won’t compete anyway. There are enough young arms to fill out the rotation and allow for development.

100%

Our number two is some guy named wags.

We desperately need to add 400 innings to our rotation.

Why would a top free agent pick our roster as currently constructed?

I’d prefer that those innings go to guys named Pearson, Kay, Zeuch, SRF, Borucki, Murphy, etc.

[Al_Oliver]

When it comes to this management and ownership you can’t be realIstic on signing anyone good these days in free agency.
Everyone thought Cole was going home to play in LA but chances are he’s going to NY because they’ll give him the most money.
Machado signed with **** SD just last off-season
Show people the money and they come here.

White Sox offered Machado more... same with Wheeler this offseason. Money is most of the decision, but certainly not all of it for top players

[polo007]

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[Schad]

I'm talking about the average free agent, like say Kyle Gibson. If the Jays offered a 4th year, they probably would have gotten him, while simultaneously feeling uncomfortable for giving him that extra year right after the ink dried (not saying I wanted Gibson just using him as an example). If everyone is offering a player 4 years, then the Jays offering him 5 will make s significant difference. Media talks about Martin playing for his country when he signed here, but he got a 5th year from the Jays that no other team was going to touch. That's the only reason he signed.

Absolutely, 4 years gets you a Gibson. But if you're going to overpay a bit, I'd say that it's better to do so for someone with a more balanced risk/reward profile than either a Gibson or a Cole. I'd be content giving Ryu $65m/3 when he's projected at $54m/3, as an example, and you could make an argument to go to four years for Ozuna or a higher AAV on Castellanos if they're to your liking. But if a player is who they are (as I'd say Gibson likely is), or you're buying at the very top of the market (with Cole), you're taking on a lot of risk and the upside is largely that they do what you want them to. There's more injury risk with someone like Ryu, but it's mitigated by the relatively short term length...if his arm blows up it's a temporary setback, whereas if Cole loses his heater you're pretty well screwed for half a decade or more.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

Phillips: Reality is there’s a bit of a hurdle to get MLB players to come to Toronto - Video - TSN

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joins OverDrive to discuss the chances of the Blue Jays landing an ace this off-season, why they still struggle to lure free agents to Toronto, and how likely it is that the Yankees will land Gerrit Cole.

[polo007]

As Winter Meetings begin, Blue Jays can't let pitching market get away - Sportsnet.ca

First, it was Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi. Then it was Zack Wheeler and Cole Hamels followed by Michael Pineda and Jordan Lyles. Maybe Madison Bumgarner will be next. Bit by bit, the list of viable options has shrunk already.

Granted, there are still pitchers available even after those deals, Hyun-jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Josh Lindblom among them. In theory, the Blue Jays could still land two of those remaining starters.

Beyond that group, though, the free agent market really does thin out. Realistically, the Blue Jays probably need to sign at least one of those seven pitchers. Otherwise, they’re right back where they were last year, when Clay Buchholz (6.56 ERA), Clayton Richard (5.96 ERA) and Edwin Jackson (11.12 ERA) got regular reps in the rotation.

As Atkins said in October, “It’s not good enough just to have depth. You have to have major-league pieces and guys that can contribute in significant ways.”

To acquire those impact pitchers, a lot has to go right. You have to identify the right players then persuade them to move to Toronto – not always an easy sell. Some players are wary of unfamiliarity and bristle at the idea of higher taxes or long lineups at customs. Plus, the Blue Jays lost 95 games last year. If you want to win, the Blue Jays aren’t your first choice.

Those are challenges, for sure, but they can’t be excuses. Not only do the Blue Jays need pitching, they have lots of payroll flexibility – more than every team but the Marlins, according to FanGraphs’ estimates.

With some viable starters still unsigned, it’s not time to panic. But it will soon be time to match actions with words. The Blue Jays have said for a while that they’ll spend when the time is right. They’ve said all off-season that they need more starting pitchers. And yet the rotation now consists of Chase Anderson and too many question marks.

Whether it’s in two days or two weeks or two months, doesn’t really matter. But viewed objectively, the Blue Jays’ rotation just isn’t good enough right now. That’s what prompted their search for pitching in the first place. Eventually, it has to lead to some meaningful upgrades.