Is Richaun Holmes a long term answer at C for the Kings?

[becorz]

Obviously, I am loving Richaun Holmes in Sacramento. He is just super fun to watch and he is putting up great numbers so far. I hope he continues to be a great find for the Kings.

That said, I have my doubts that he will continue to be THIS good (though, if you just look at per 36...this might be real...). I personally believe that once Bagley comes back, the fit with Holmes is not going to be great. Bjelica is a perfect partner to let Holmes create havoc. And Holmes is on pace to shatter the amount of minutes played that he has had in the past. On the trade and transactions board, there are a ton of Dedmon trades being proposed, with the logic being that Holmes is the center now.

I personally believe that once Bagley is back, Dedmon will spend a lot of time paired with Bagley and Holmes will continue to be paired with Bjelica. The fit is just too good. And once Holmes is a FA, there are stupid FA signing rules that will cause us trouble. Which leads me too...

Do we think Holmes is the center of the future?

[BoogieTime]

Yes, I’ve thought he was the center of the future since the offseason, and have seen nothing to disway that. Onus is now on Bagley to either show he’s a player or he’s a fit with Richaun

Which stupid FA signing rule are you referring to?

[becorz]

Which stupid FA signing rule are you referring to?

Since Holmes only got 2 years from the Kings, he will be an "early bird" free agent, rather than the a free agent with full bird rights. More can be found at http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25 , but I'll try to explain it.

A team can resign a player with full bird rights to any contract they want, exceeding the cap to do it. This is for players who have been on the same team for at least 3 seasons.

With an early bird free agent, the rules are more strict. This is for players that have been on a team for two years. The Kings would be able to sign Holmes to a contract that is at least 2 years, at 175% of his previous salary, with 8% raises. So, if the Kings use that exception, they could sign Holmes to a contact

• 2 years, $18.2m
• 3 years, $28.4m
• 4 years, $39.5m

These numbers are just slightly over the mid level exception.

The other option would be for the Kings to resign Holmes to a one year, non-bird exception contract. So, 1 year, roughly 6 million. The upside for the Kings here would be that the next offseason, Holmes would be a full bird free agent and can sign any contract. But, remember Joe Smith, the Kings can't make an agreement with Holmes to sign him to a huge contract the next offseason...Holmes would be taking a gamble. Also, for the third year, Holmes would have a defacto no trade clause, because he would lose his bird rights if traded in this scenario.

(A question for cap scholars, could the Kings use the MLE to sign Holmes to a one year contract worth more than the non bird and make him a bird free agent the next year?)

What does that all mean for the Kings? When Holmes is a free agent (assuming the Kings have no cap space, which is pretty much a given), a team with cap space could swoop in and offer more than the Kings are able to. If a team decides Holmes is worth $15m a year, they can offer that to him and there would be nothing the Kings could do about it.

[BoogieTime]

Which stupid FA signing rule are you referring to?

Since Holmes only got 2 years from the Kings, he will be an "early bird" free agent, rather than the a free agent with full bird rights. More can be found at http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25 , but I'll try to explain it.

A team can resign a player with full bird rights to any contract they want, exceeding the cap to do it. This is for players who have been on the same team for at least 3 seasons.

With an early bird free agent, the rules are more strict. This is for players that have been on a team for two years. The Kings would be able to sign Holmes to a contract that is at least 2 years, at 175% of his previous salary, with 8% raises. So, if the Kings use that exception, they could sign Holmes to a contact

• 2 years, $18.2m
• 3 years, $28.4m
• 4 years, $39.5m

These numbers are just slightly over the mid level exception.

The other option would be for the Kings to resign Holmes to a one year, non-bird exception contract. So, 1 year, roughly 6 million. The upside for the Kings here would be that the next offseason, Holmes would be a full bird free agent and can sign any contract. But, remember Joe Smith, the Kings can't make an agreement with Holmes to sign him to a huge contract the next offseason...Holmes would be taking a gamble. Also, for the third year, Holmes would have a defacto no trade clause, because he would lose his bird rights if traded in this scenario.

(A question for cap scholars, could the Kings use the MLE to sign Holmes to a one year contract worth more than the non bird and make him a bird free agent the next year?)

What does that all mean for the Kings? When Holmes is a free agent (assuming the Kings have no cap space, which is pretty much a given), a team with cap space could swoop in and offer more than the Kings are able to. If a team decides Holmes is worth $15m a year, they can offer that to him and there would be nothing the Kings could do about it.

In 2021-2022 salary cap now projected at 125 million..

As of now, aren’t only Buddy/Barnes/James/Bagley on the books that year?

Why couldn’t the team have cap? Even if BOgi is matched.

[becorz]

In 2021-2022 salary cap now projected at 125 million..

As of now, aren’t only Buddy/Barnes/James/Bagley on the books that year?

Why couldn’t the team have cap? Even if BOgi is matched.

I suppose you could be right about the team having cap space, but there is a lot that you aren't taking into account.

First, you have the contracts the guarenteed contracts we already handed out. And I will assume Justin James doesn't get cut.

Then you have the contracts of Joeseph and Dedmond. If both are cut and not on the team anymore, Joseph has a $2,400,000 dead cap and Dedmond has a $1,000,000 dead cap. If they are still on the team, they count even more.

Then you have to look at the cap holds on Fox and Bjelica. Fox will have a cap hold of $10,740,105. If the team plans on resigning Bjelica, he will have a cap hold of $12,512,500. But he could agree to a lower contract before we sign Holmes and therefore could could for less.

Then you have a first round pick this year and next year. The 20th pick this year would be worth $2,401,300 then. Then the 20th pick the next year is worth $2,587,800. And I think we are going to be drafting higher than that, therefore more money.

Then you have to put minimum roster holds for the remaining roster spots up to 13. This year the minimum is $898,310, but it increases the same percentage as the salary cap. I am lazy, so I will use $898,310 as my number. The dead money owed Joseph and Dedmond do not count as a roster spot. The cap holds of Fox and Bjelica would.

So, if we are assuming the Kings go bare bones on the cap for 2021-2022 (I'll assume they let Bjelica walk)
Justin James $1,782,621
Harrison Barnes $20,284,091
Marvin Bagley $11,312,114
Buddy Hield $24,477,273
20th pick 2020 $2,401,300
20th pick 2021 $2,587,800
Fox Cap Hold $10,740,105
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310

Joeseph Dead Money $2,400,000
Dedmon Dead Money $1,000,000

That puts the Kings at $82,375,164 of spent cap in 2021. That would leave them with $42,624,836 in cap space. But that is if they go super cheap. But other issues come up.

• I personally think the cap will be less in 2021 because of the China issue. Some NBA GMs feel the same. Some don't. So, it is possible the cap will just be less.
• I don't see the Kings letting Bogi go. I think he gets at least $15m a year. I think closer to $20m. That takes a chunk out.
• I really don't think the Kings let Bjelica go.
• We will likely be picking higher than 20, so add some salary there.
• Are the Kings not going to use the Ariza/Dedmon/Joseph contracts as salary ballast for a future upgrade? On a player with a multi year contract?
• Are the Kings not signing anyone to the MLE this offseason?
• Maybe Joseph or Dedmon justify the third year of their contracts

I just don't think the Kings are going to stand pat and add no future money to the books, which is my big concern.

[sacking123]

In 2021-2022 salary cap now projected at 125 million..

As of now, aren’t only Buddy/Barnes/James/Bagley on the books that year?

Why couldn’t the team have cap? Even if BOgi is matched.

I suppose you could be right about the team having cap space, but there is a lot that you aren't taking into account.

First, you have the contracts the guarenteed contracts we already handed out. And I will assume Justin James doesn't get cut.

Then you have the contracts of Joeseph and Dedmond. If both are cut and not on the team anymore, Joseph has a $2,400,000 dead cap and Dedmond has a $1,000,000 dead cap. If they are still on the team, they count even more.

Then you have to look at the cap holds on Fox and Bjelica. Fox will have a cap hold of $10,740,105. If the team plans on resigning Bjelica, he will have a cap hold of $12,512,500. But he could agree to a lower contract before we sign Holmes and therefore could could for less.

Then you have a first round pick this year and next year. The 20th pick this year would be worth $2,401,300 then. Then the 20th pick the next year is worth $2,587,800. And I think we are going to be drafting higher than that, therefore more money.

Then you have to put minimum roster holds for the remaining roster spots up to 13. This year the minimum is $898,310, but it increases the same percentage as the salary cap. I am lazy, so I will use $898,310 as my number. The dead money owed Joseph and Dedmond do not count as a roster spot. The cap holds of Fox and Bjelica would.

So, if we are assuming the Kings go bare bones on the cap for 2021-2022 (I'll assume they let Bjelica walk)
Justin James $1,782,621
Harrison Barnes $20,284,091
Marvin Bagley $11,312,114
Buddy Hield $24,477,273
20th pick 2020 $2,401,300
20th pick 2021 $2,587,800
Fox Cap Hold $10,740,105
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310

Joeseph Dead Money $2,400,000
Dedmon Dead Money $1,000,000

That puts the Kings at $82,375,164 of spent cap in 2021. That would leave them with $42,624,836 in cap space. But that is if they go super cheap. But other issues come up.

• I personally think the cap will be less in 2021 because of the China issue. Some NBA GMs feel the same. Some don't. So, it is possible the cap will just be less.
• I don't see the Kings letting Bogi go. I think he gets at least $15m a year. I think closer to $20m. That takes a chunk out.
• I really don't think the Kings let Bjelica go.
• We will likely be picking higher than 20, so add some salary there.
• Are the Kings not going to use the Ariza/Dedmon/Joseph contracts as salary ballast for a future upgrade? On a player with a multi year contract?
• Are the Kings not signing anyone to the MLE this offseason?
• Maybe Joseph or Dedmon justify the third year of their contracts

I just don't think the Kings are going to stand pat and add no future money to the books, which is my big concern.

I would agree with all of this. Except I think the Kings are going to stand pat and add no future money other than to the core.
I think the plan is to sign Bjelica to a low amount his next contract to round out the bench. Not sure that’s going to be doable with the way he has played, but I wouldn’t be surprised particularly given a lot of things can happen in 2 seasons.

I don’t see the FO upgrading from CoJo, Dedmon, Ariza unless it’s a clear and distinct upgrade from our current positions. It would mean someone from that core is gone as well so that has to come into the equation.

There is a chance the FO is lining up a Warriors style FA though in that year you're talking about.
If the cap projections remain and they use the draft picks half decently in the next 2 years there’s a chance the Kings could add a star player to the core of Fox/Buddy/Bogdan/Barnes/Bagley.
James/2020 1st/2021 1st/2020 2nd/2021 2nd puts us at 10 players.

CoJo would need to be traded though IMO to wipe that 2.4m charge. Dedmon’s 1m isn’t as harsh.

There are a lot of teams with an eye on that year in particular, and with good reason as the FA class is stacked.
As I said, this is where they might be able to have cap space and add a serious superstar player and that's the reason these contracts the FO has been signing will work out in the long run, give them more money now and it will mean they can add a player down the track.
If Vivek can go into the luxury tax then it's not only doable, it's likely. Who wouldn't want to play with that core (if things pan out remotely close to their potential).

[codydaze]

Which stupid FA signing rule are you referring to?

Since Holmes only got 2 years from the Kings, he will be an "early bird" free agent, rather than the a free agent with full bird rights. More can be found at http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25 , but I'll try to explain it.

A team can resign a player with full bird rights to any contract they want, exceeding the cap to do it. This is for players who have been on the same team for at least 3 seasons.

With an early bird free agent, the rules are more strict. This is for players that have been on a team for two years. The Kings would be able to sign Holmes to a contract that is at least 2 years, at 175% of his previous salary, with 8% raises. So, if the Kings use that exception, they could sign Holmes to a contact

• 2 years, $18.2m
• 3 years, $28.4m
• 4 years, $39.5m

These numbers are just slightly over the mid level exception.

The other option would be for the Kings to resign Holmes to a one year, non-bird exception contract. So, 1 year, roughly 6 million. The upside for the Kings here would be that the next offseason, Holmes would be a full bird free agent and can sign any contract. But, remember Joe Smith, the Kings can't make an agreement with Holmes to sign him to a huge contract the next offseason...Holmes would be taking a gamble. Also, for the third year, Holmes would have a defacto no trade clause, because he would lose his bird rights if traded in this scenario.

(A question for cap scholars, could the Kings use the MLE to sign Holmes to a one year contract worth more than the non bird and make him a bird free agent the next year?)

What does that all mean for the Kings? When Holmes is a free agent (assuming the Kings have no cap space, which is pretty much a given), a team with cap space could swoop in and offer more than the Kings are able to. If a team decides Holmes is worth $15m a year, they can offer that to him and there would be nothing the Kings could do about it.

I'm in no way a CBA expert but maybe we can page THE chief CBA expert to see if that would be legal or not.

[codydaze]

Even if he's not the long term answer at the starting center spot, he's still a guy I'd love to lock up long term. He's everything we wanted WCS to be and the energy he plays with rubs off on the rest of the team. To be an ideal fit with Bagley, we'd need Bagley to have a reliable outside jumper but those two would have to be in the running for most athletic/energetic front court in the league right away.

[BoogieTime]

In 2021-2022 salary cap now projected at 125 million..

As of now, aren’t only Buddy/Barnes/James/Bagley on the books that year?

Why couldn’t the team have cap? Even if BOgi is matched.

I suppose you could be right about the team having cap space, but there is a lot that you aren't taking into account.

First, you have the contracts the guarenteed contracts we already handed out. And I will assume Justin James doesn't get cut.

Then you have the contracts of Joeseph and Dedmond. If both are cut and not on the team anymore, Joseph has a $2,400,000 dead cap and Dedmond has a $1,000,000 dead cap. If they are still on the team, they count even more.

Then you have to look at the cap holds on Fox and Bjelica. Fox will have a cap hold of $10,740,105. If the team plans on resigning Bjelica, he will have a cap hold of $12,512,500. But he could agree to a lower contract before we sign Holmes and therefore could could for less.

Then you have a first round pick this year and next year. The 20th pick this year would be worth $2,401,300 then. Then the 20th pick the next year is worth $2,587,800. And I think we are going to be drafting higher than that, therefore more money.

Then you have to put minimum roster holds for the remaining roster spots up to 13. This year the minimum is $898,310, but it increases the same percentage as the salary cap. I am lazy, so I will use $898,310 as my number. The dead money owed Joseph and Dedmond do not count as a roster spot. The cap holds of Fox and Bjelica would.

So, if we are assuming the Kings go bare bones on the cap for 2021-2022 (I'll assume they let Bjelica walk)
Justin James $1,782,621
Harrison Barnes $20,284,091
Marvin Bagley $11,312,114
Buddy Hield $24,477,273
20th pick 2020 $2,401,300
20th pick 2021 $2,587,800
Fox Cap Hold $10,740,105
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310
Min Cap Hold $898,310

Joeseph Dead Money $2,400,000
Dedmon Dead Money $1,000,000

That puts the Kings at $82,375,164 of spent cap in 2021. That would leave them with $42,624,836 in cap space. But that is if they go super cheap. But other issues come up.

• I personally think the cap will be less in 2021 because of the China issue. Some NBA GMs feel the same. Some don't. So, it is possible the cap will just be less.
• I don't see the Kings letting Bogi go. I think he gets at least $15m a year. I think closer to $20m. That takes a chunk out.
• I really don't think the Kings let Bjelica go.
• We will likely be picking higher than 20, so add some salary there.
• Are the Kings not going to use the Ariza/Dedmon/Joseph contracts as salary ballast for a future upgrade? On a player with a multi year contract?
• Are the Kings not signing anyone to the MLE this offseason?
• Maybe Joseph or Dedmon justify the third year of their contracts

I just don't think the Kings are going to stand pat and add no future money to the books, which is my big concern.

I think BOgi will be re-signed for 16-18. And that’s about it before Holmes. I don’t think Bjelica is in Holmes neighborhood. But I obviously have a higher opinion on Richaun then some. He’s about the best player on this team night in/night out and coming into his own. He may have more to improve

[BoogieTime]

And if Holmes isn’t in their long term plans, which I highly question, there is no point not dealing him now as he has major value at this point and get a lot better draft pick this year

[blind prophet]

As long as we can afford him why not?

Defensively he has been a marvel, and he sure seems to fit in with the way Walton is doing things and with teammates.

[blind prophet]

The only concern is if Bagley and he can coexist well on the court together.

[dckingsfan]

And if Holmes isn’t in their long term plans, which I highly question, there is no point not dealing him now as he has major value at this point and get a lot better draft pick this year

I don't think we move him until we understand if we are in the playoff picture or not. If not, the trade deadline is going to be interesting.

[BoogieTime]

The way I see it, Richaun is damn near who the Kings might be building around

He’s the best player on the team night in/night out IMO, and still can grow offensively.

[Smitty731]

Which stupid FA signing rule are you referring to?

Since Holmes only got 2 years from the Kings, he will be an "early bird" free agent, rather than the a free agent with full bird rights. More can be found at http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25 , but I'll try to explain it.

A team can resign a player with full bird rights to any contract they want, exceeding the cap to do it. This is for players who have been on the same team for at least 3 seasons.

With an early bird free agent, the rules are more strict. This is for players that have been on a team for two years. The Kings would be able to sign Holmes to a contract that is at least 2 years, at 175% of his previous salary, with 8% raises. So, if the Kings use that exception, they could sign Holmes to a contact

• 2 years, $18.2m
• 3 years, $28.4m
• 4 years, $39.5m

These numbers are just slightly over the mid level exception.

The other option would be for the Kings to resign Holmes to a one year, non-bird exception contract. So, 1 year, roughly 6 million. The upside for the Kings here would be that the next offseason, Holmes would be a full bird free agent and can sign any contract. But, remember Joe Smith, the Kings can't make an agreement with Holmes to sign him to a huge contract the next offseason...Holmes would be taking a gamble. Also, for the third year, Holmes would have a defacto no trade clause, because he would lose his bird rights if traded in this scenario.

(A question for cap scholars, could the Kings use the MLE to sign Holmes to a one year contract worth more than the non bird and make him a bird free agent the next year?)

What does that all mean for the Kings? When Holmes is a free agent (assuming the Kings have no cap space, which is pretty much a given), a team with cap space could swoop in and offer more than the Kings are able to. If a team decides Holmes is worth $15m a year, they can offer that to him and there would be nothing the Kings could do about it.

I'm in no way a CBA expert but maybe we can page THE chief CBA expert to see if that would be legal or not.

Yes. This would be allowable.

[becorz]

The only concern is if Bagley and he can coexist well on the court together.

To be honest, this point is why I kind of made the thread. I do not think Bagley will fit well with Holmes right now. Defensively I think they would be OK together (I think that Bagley could probably guard smaller 4s with his athleticism), but I don't understand how they could function offensively. They occupy much of the same space.

And I think the Kings brass has to choose one of Bagley and Holmes, they are picking Bagley every time.

I am not trying to say the Kings should trade Holmes for a late first right now. Definitely not. But I wonder if he will fit long term and if he can keep it up.

[BoogieTime]

The only concern is if Bagley and he can coexist well on the court together.

To be honest, this point is why I kind of made the thread. I do not think Bagley will fit well with Holmes right now. Defensively I think they would be OK together (I think that Bagley could probably guard smaller 4s with his athleticism), but I don't understand how they could function offensively. They occupy much of the same space.

And I think the Kings brass has to choose one of Bagley and Holmes, they are picking Bagley every time.

I am not trying to say the Kings should trade Holmes for a late first right now. Definitely not. But I wonder if he will fit long term and if he can keep it up.

Two things have to be proven, they don’t fit together, and Bagley is a higher priority (as Richaun can possibly expand his game). We got a year and a half to find out. in the meantime, keep that flexibility open IMO

[bleeds_purple]

The only concern is if Bagley and he can coexist well on the court together.

To be honest, this point is why I kind of made the thread. I do not think Bagley will fit well with Holmes right now. Defensively I think they would be OK together (I think that Bagley could probably guard smaller 4s with his athleticism), but I don't understand how they could function offensively. They occupy much of the same space.

And I think the Kings brass has to choose one of Bagley and Holmes, they are picking Bagley every time.

I am not trying to say the Kings should trade Holmes for a late first right now. Definitely not. But I wonder if he will fit long term and if he can keep it up.

I don't think the fit is great either but there are 48 minutes a game. Once Bagley comes back I expect Dedmon to become a DNP. At that point Holmes and Bagley can share the floor to start the 1st and 3rd and split the remaining 36 minutes a game at the 5. Bjelica and Barnes should play the majority of the minutes at the 4.

I would also like to see Bagley start the 2nd and 4th with our bench units because he thrived in that role last year.

[becorz]

I don't think the fit is great either but there are 48 minutes a game. Once Bagley comes back I expect Dedmon to become a DNP. At that point Holmes and Bagley can share the floor to start the 1st and 3rd and split the remaining 36 minutes a game at the 5. Bjelica and Barnes should play the majority of the minutes at the 4.

I would also like to see Bagley start the 2nd and 4th with our bench units because he thrived in that role last year.

I am still not ready to write Dedmon off. He has a history over the last two years of being a good role player. Once we get Bagley back and especially once we got Fox back, I think Dedmon will start being playable again.

[bleeds_purple]

I don't think the fit is great either but there are 48 minutes a game. Once Bagley comes back I expect Dedmon to become a DNP. At that point Holmes and Bagley can share the floor to start the 1st and 3rd and split the remaining 36 minutes a game at the 5. Bjelica and Barnes should play the majority of the minutes at the 4.

I would also like to see Bagley start the 2nd and 4th with our bench units because he thrived in that role last year.

I am still not ready to write Dedmon off. He has a history over the last two years of being a good role player. Once we get Bagley back and especially once we got Fox back, I think Dedmon will start being playable again.

Even if he turns it around a bit he's honestly just not needed once Bagley gets back. I was in the same boat as you but then when I actually thought about the minutes distribution I now believe we are better if James and Ariza are getting those minutes and Bagley plays more of the 5. We looked a lot better last night with Bjelica at the 5 and Dedmon being a DNP. Dedmon has a very limited skill set.