Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

[Ruzious]

If the goal is to win next year, the Wiz have to sign him long term. It’s not like they have the cap space to bring in a free agent they don’t have the bird rights to.

The goal should be to trade him to a contender for a late first (or a future strategic 1st - where you expect the other team to decline), and then sign him back in the offseason.

[tontoz]

The goal should be to trade him to a contender for a late first (or a future strategic 1st - where you expect the other team to decline), and then sign him back in the offseason.

Salary cap fail.

DO NOT PASS GO.
DO NOT COLLECT $200.
GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL.

[Ruzious]

The goal should be to trade him to a contender for a late first (or a future strategic 1st - where you expect the other team to decline), and then sign him back in the offseason.

Salary cap fail.

DO NOT PASS GO.
DO NOT COLLECT $200.
GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL.

Last I heard, we were expected to have $12 mil in cap room next season. No? That should be enough to sign him.

I was counting on that $200 to buy Skins seasons tickets.

[tontoz]

The goal should be to trade him to a contender for a late first (or a future strategic 1st - where you expect the other team to decline), and then sign him back in the offseason.

Salary cap fail.

DO NOT PASS GO.
DO NOT COLLECT $200.
GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL.

Last I heard, we were expected to have $12 mil in cap room next season. No? That should be enough to sign him.

I was counting on that $200 to buy Skins seasons tickets.

I don't think so. We have $99 million in salaries for 10 players next season. This years cap is 109 mil. We will have to sign next years first round pick so I think we would have no chance to sign him without his Bird rights.

[nate33]

Salary cap fail.

DO NOT PASS GO.
DO NOT COLLECT $200.
GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL.

Last I heard, we were expected to have $12 mil in cap room next season. No? That should be enough to sign him.

I was counting on that $200 to buy Skins seasons tickets.

I don't think so. We have $99 million in salaries for 10 players next season. This years cap is 109 mil. We will have to sign next years first round pick so I think we would have no chance to sign him without his Bird rights.

Not to mention that Bertans will cost more than $12M.

[Ruzious]

Last I heard, we were expected to have $12 mil in cap room next season. No? That should be enough to sign him.

I was counting on that $200 to buy Skins seasons tickets.

I don't think so. We have $99 million in salaries for 10 players next season. This years cap is 109 mil. We will have to sign next years first round pick so I think we would have no chance to sign him without his Bird rights.

Not to mention that Bertans will cost more than $12M.

I didn't think I was completely crazy - though I did have a couple of drinks. These are posts from 1 month ago:


Post#358 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 6, 2019 8:58 pm
[/quote]Ruzious wrote:
The Bucks will be an Ilyasova injury away from panicking and trading the Pacers 1st rounder (18th now) for Bertans and the 2nd rounder the Wiz own. We could then still sign Bertans in the offseason. [/quote]

Nate wrote"Yes. I like it!

It really is important to note that we will have about $12M in cap room next summer (after accounting for our draft pick). If Bertans costs that or less, then RFA rights on him are unnecessary. We could have the best of both worlds: trade him for a pick AND have him back next year.

Fwiw, I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that Bertans will or should get a contract starting at more than $12 mil a season. He is an absolutely phenominal 3 point shooter, but he's well below average in most other aspects of the game.

[tontoz]

If we have 99 million committed to 10 players then sign our draft pick (Rui is making 4 million so lets use that) then the salary cap would have to jump over 115 million to be able to afford 12 million to Bertans.

Keep in mind that next years cap won't be determined until after the season. Given the China situation i think it is reasonable to think the cap will be going down, not up.

Bertans will certainly be the best 3 point shooter on the market, not to mention that he had an absurd +/- on the Spurs last season which seems to be continuing this season.

http://www.82games.com/1819/18SAS11.HTM#onoff

I have seen some comments from Spurs fans and they are all pissed that Bertans was traded.

Fwiw, I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that Bertans will or should get a contract starting at more than $12 mil a season. He is an absolutely phenominal 3 point shooter, but he's well below average in most other aspects of the game.

I would bet he gets at least 15 million/yr unless he gets seriously hurt.

[tontoz]

Long time Spurs fan on Bertans:

[payitforward]

If we have 99 million committed to 10 players then sign our draft pick (Rui is making 4 million so lets use that) then the salary cap would have to jump over 115 million to be able to afford 12 million to Bertans.

Keep in mind that next years cap won't be determined until after the season. Given the China situation i think it is reasonable to think the cap will be going down, not up.

Bertans will certainly be the best 3 point shooter on the market, not to mention that he had an absurd +/- on the Spurs last season which seems to be continuing this season.

http://www.82games.com/1819/18SAS11.HTM#onoff

I have seen some comments from Spurs fans and they are all pissed that Bertans was traded.

Fwiw, I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that Bertans will or should get a contract starting at more than $12 mil a season. He is an absolutely phenominal 3 point shooter, but he's well below average in most other aspects of the game.

I would bet he gets at least 15 million/yr unless he gets seriously hurt.

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

[tontoz]

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

Not necessarily. There are a lot of teams with cap space and a weak group of free agents. A small change in cap space might not matter to teams with plenty of cap room.

The Hawks have only 33 million on the books for next season.
Memphis 48 mil
Cavs 69 mil and they are looking to trade Love
Suns 85 mil
Pels 83 mil
Knicks 83 mil
Raps 85 mil

Portis got 15 million last summer so i don't think it is unrealistic to think Bertans will get that or more.

[pcbothwel]

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

Not necessarily. There are a lot of teams with cap space and a weak group of free agents. A small change in cap space might not matter to teams with plenty of cap room.

The Hawks have only 33 million on the books for next season.
Memphis 48 mil
Cavs 69 mil and they are looking to trade Love
Suns 85 mil
Pels 83 mil
Knicks 83 mil
Raps 85 mil

Portis got 15 million last summer so i don't think it is unrealistic to think Bertans will get that or more.

Agreed... that said, I think it will be a short term deal.
The more I think about Bertans, the more I see a better version of Korver. Korver was a key part of some really good Utah, Chicago, and Atlanta playoff teams. He also really flourished in his early 30's.

Wins With Korver vs Without:
Utah: 54, 48, 53.... Then 39 and 36
Bulls: 62, 50... then 45
Hawks: 60, 48, 45... then 24

Look as how San Antonio has completely fallen off after winning 47 & 48 games the last two years:
Derozan, Aldridge, Murray, White, Gay, Poltl, etc... .all healthy this year and they are trash
Gay and white were injured off and on last year and Murray missed the whole year and they were better.

That Spurs fan is right and we see it here... The team explodes when Bertans catches fire... its contagious.
I think its worth the risk to keep him. This same team with a healthy Wall and another year for Rui, TBJ, Wagner, Bryant, etc. looks enticing.

[nate33]

The more I think about Bertans, the more I see a better version of Korver. Korver was a key part of some really good Utah, Chicago, and Atlanta playoff teams. He also really flourished in his early 30's.

Wins With Korver vs Without:
Utah: 54, 48, 53.... Then 39 and 36
Bulls: 62, 50... then 45
Hawks: 60, 48, 45... then 24

Look as how San Antonio has completely fallen off after winning 47 & 48 games the last two years:
Derozan, Aldridge, Murray, White, Gay, Poltl, etc... .all healthy this year and they are trash
Gay and white were injured off and on last year and Murray missed the whole year and they were better.

That Spurs fan is right and we see it here... The team explodes when Bertans catches fire... its contagious.
I think its worth the risk to keep him. This same team with a healthy Wall and another year for Rui, TBJ, Wagner, Bryant, etc. looks enticing.

Bertans' on/off differential so far this year is +8.9. And his sample size is getting pretty large with a good mix of playing alongside starters and bench players (which makes the number more accurate).

[Illmatic12]

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

Not necessarily. There are a lot of teams with cap space and a weak group of free agents. A small change in cap space might not matter to teams with plenty of cap room.

The Hawks have only 33 million on the books for next season.
Memphis 48 mil
Cavs 69 mil and they are looking to trade Love
Suns 85 mil
Pels 83 mil
Knicks 83 mil
Raps 85 mil

Portis got 15 million last summer so i don't think it is unrealistic to think Bertans will get that or more.

Portis got $15M on a short term deal .. Knicks have a team option on the final year. In fact all the contracts NYK signed this past offseason are short-term and not guaranteed past 2021. Which is a reflection of the market as a whole - most teams don’t want to take on longterm money that will take them out of the 2021 free agency sweepstakes.

This is why the Wizards are solidly in pole position to retain Bertans, they are one of the few teams not angling for 2021 capspace and can give him a multi year deal that he wouldn’t get elsewhere.

Furthermore Bertans has spoken about money not being his primary focus. This is from an interview Davis gave to Latvian media , the headline quote translates : “Bertans: I would be willing to give back a couple of millions of my salary just to play more"


https://www.sportazinas.com/bertans-butu-gatavs-atdot-paris-miljonus-no-algas-lai-tikai-speletu-vairak/


He wants opportunity - a chance to get playing time and touches so he can grow as a player. And so far it’s safe to say the Wizards have created that environment for him to want to re-sign, even if another unexpected suitor may offer him more $$$

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Bertans is worth every bit of $15m, especially if we can lock him up long term.

[payitforward]

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

Not necessarily. There are a lot of teams with cap space and a weak group of free agents. A small change in cap space might not matter to teams with plenty of cap room.

The Hawks have only 33 million on the books for next season.
Memphis 48 mil
Cavs 69 mil and they are looking to trade Love
Suns 85 mil
Pels 83 mil
Knicks 83 mil
Raps 85 mil

Portis got 15 million last summer so i don't think it is unrealistic to think Bertans will get that or more.

??
Hard to know how to respond.... If the cap goes down, there's less $$ overall to spend on all free agents. That is, the entire bunch of them, overall, will get a smaller amount of money, overall. Period. By definition.

The bell-shaped curve representing how that money is distributed among players will be unlikely to change its shape -- for that to happen there would need to be a truly radical drop in the cap.

By definition, however, the curve will be graphing smaller outlays.

Davis's contract will be a data point on that bell-shaped curve. Where he is on the curve will represent how he's valued vis a vis other FAs: how good he's thought to be, where in the group of FAs he sits based on how his play is viewed by GMs. What that means financially is that his contract will represent the same % of available money as it would had the cap not changed.

What it does not & cannot mean is that he will get the same $$ as if the cap had not dropped. If he did, then he'd be getting a larger % of the available money than he would have gotten if the cap had not dropped. Thus, there would be others who would be getting a lower % of the available money than they would have gotten if the cap had not dropped.

As to whether $15m is "realistic" -- if he get it, it's realistic. If he doesn't, it's not. Either way, what the Knicks gave Portis has little bearing on the question.

[tontoz]

I would like to see him get more time at the 3. Mo can get backup minutes at the 4.

When Bryant/Ian/Wagner are all healthy it will get crowded at C. Mahinmi is easily our best defender at C so he needs to get time.

I like Mo but he is a bit undersized in length and weight at C.

[Meliorus]

If you do trade Bertans, whatever kid you end up drafting will not be anywhere near Bertans as a shooter and gravity-spacer. I don't care if it's a top 5 pick, this guy is a building block, a core piece. Perfect for any ball-dominant guard to play with.

[tontoz]

Well, if the cap goes down -- so does Bertans next deal. Duh.

Not necessarily. There are a lot of teams with cap space and a weak group of free agents. A small change in cap space might not matter to teams with plenty of cap room.

The Hawks have only 33 million on the books for next season.
Memphis 48 mil
Cavs 69 mil and they are looking to trade Love
Suns 85 mil
Pels 83 mil
Knicks 83 mil
Raps 85 mil

Portis got 15 million last summer so i don't think it is unrealistic to think Bertans will get that or more.

??
Hard to know how to respond.... If the cap goes down, there's less $$ overall to spend on all free agents. That is, the entire bunch of them, overall, will get a smaller amount of money, overall. Period. By definition.

A smaller pool of money means that as a group they will get less money but that doesn't mean that any given individual will get less money. Some guys might get the exact same contract they would have gotten otherwise. Some might get a smaller deal, some might not get anything at all. Of course a lot of guys will be signed with MLE money for teams over the cap, vet min deals and so on.

If a team is far below the cap they might not care if the cap goes down by a few million. One thing history has shown is that teams aren't shy about spending big money on guys who aren't All-Stars.

Over the last few years, with a lower cap, here are some of the signings:

Allen Crabbe 18+ million/year
Bismack Biyombo 18/year.
Cody Zeller 14/yr
Kent Bazemore 17/yr
Patty Mills 12.5/yr
Teague 19/yr
Dion Waiters 13/yr
Hardaway 18/yr
Tony Snell 11.5/yr
Joe Ingles 13/yr
Will Barton 13.5/yr
Joe Harris 16/yr
Zach Lavine 20/yr
Donte Exum 11/yr
James Johnson 15/yr



NBA GM's aren't known for value shopping and they will be competing with us to sign him. It is highly likely that we will have to go over the cap to sign him even if the cap goes up. Hence, we need his Bird Rights.

Edit: How could i forget Mahinmi 16/yr.

[payitforward]

If you do trade Bertans, whatever kid you end up drafting will not be anywhere near Bertans as a shooter and gravity-spacer. I don't care if it's a top 5 pick, this guy is a building block, a core piece. Perfect for any ball-dominant guard to play with.

The key point is that Davis Bertans is playing better this year than he has played in any previous year. That's in the numbers; you can't miss it. He's scoring more points on higher usage & at a superlative, career-high .651 TS%. He's rebounding way above his career average, & his offensive boards are at a career high.

If he stays at this level, or near it, the whole season that's one thing. If he regresses to the mean by the season's end that's another.

[payitforward]

...NBA GM's aren't known for value shopping and they will be competing with us to sign him. It is highly likely that we will have to go over the cap to sign him even if the cap goes up. Hence, we need his Bird Rights.

I agree with these concluding points (esp. the first clause! ).

The rest of what you wrote & I replied & you added to is about markets not basketball. Not worth carrying forward here....