MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[An Unbiased Fan]

is this a thread about who will be 2nd palce to Anthony Davis? I'm confused.

[freethedevil]

That's because Houston has been outscored by 8.2 points per100 when he sits.

That's as opposed to the

Lakers (2.2)
Bucks (9.3) and
Mavs (12.1)

Value does not mean-> my team is really bad without me. By your criteria, trae young should be an mvp candidate. To calculate value you have to look at how good the team is with the player as well as without.

I was assuming we all knew that these teams are good when their best players are on the court, but your Trae Young analogy shows I was wrong.

Here you go: "how good the team is with the player as well as without."

With: Without:

Anteto: 16.0 - 9.3
Doncic: 7.9 - 13.7
James: 12.4 - 2.3
Harde: 10.0 - -8.7
Young: -8.8 - -11.1

Nice of you to only respond to half of my post.

Let''s do the other bit now:

Also, lets use metrics that actually have demonstrably accurate and bother to adjust for lineups.

PIPM -> Giannis 8.85, Harden -> 7.3
Backpicks BPM(Box heavy and favors offensive players) -> Giannis, 8.3. Harden, 7.5


Actually you know what, **** it, let's use the inaccurate ones, heavily offense biased ones too:
BPM -> Giannis, 12.5, Harden, 10.2
WS/48-> Giannis .308, Harden, .293


Everything says Giannis is more valuable, but it must be the media's fault that a high usage, big market, high volume iso scorer that no one thinks Harden's mvp.


You must not like people weighing Gianni's team success, and yet you specfically try to show one side of a stat that literally doesn't adjust for lineups. Funny how that works.

It doesn't matter how much data you cite if you don't understand what the data is. You cited raw plus minus that does not adjust for lineups. IOW, your stat measures team success. It's a little bit better than just looking at every team's srs and deciding whoever is on the best team must be the mvp. In case you're wondering: Harden does worse than lebron or giannis or luka using that criteria.

You cam't complain about the mvp being an induvidual award if you insist on using stats that dont' measure induvidual value. I pointed this inconsistency out, and you proceeded to ignore it. I believe this is what we call an echo chamber.

[freethedevil]

Which of the 3 mvp candidates should finish second if the season ended today?

Can you explain in very clear words - why you left Lebron out of the poll. Was it an intention or just a typo?

Same reason the thread you merged tihs with didn't list Kemba or Butler

[Joey Wheeler]

lol wut

I don't believe Harden's efficient ~40ppg or Giannis overall dominance are sustainable when it really counts given evidence from previous years. Otoh, I know Lebron and AD will be able to keep it up in the postseason and probably actually go up a gear.

When I think most valuable player, who I'd pick first if I needed to win a big series is a very important consideration

you're just coming up with your own rules now to justify an MVP for either LeBron or Davis, weak.

and I don't have Harden MVP either, but it has nothing to do with the playoffs. and it's funny hearing people talk about playoffs and Davis when he's done literally nothing in the postseason except get swept in the 2nd round.

and that's not even taking into consideration that LeBron/Davis play together. weren't you one of the ones that said Steph/KD were DQ'd from the MVP conversation because they were playing together?

There are no established rules for MVP voting, everyone votes for whoever they want according to what they value more and in the end whoever gets more votes wins. So yeah I'm making up my own rules, as is everyone else as no actual rules are defined.

The Durant/Curry situation is very different. The team was stacked even outside of them; actually neither of those two anchored the defense, it was Draymond. The Lakers are far more dependant on their top 2 players as the rest of their squad just isn't great, they'd be deep in the lottery without them and treadmill with just one. The Warriors grabbed top seeds even with Curry and Durant missing significant time.

Even with Lebron and AD, before the season started lots of people were saying they'd be a low seed or even miss the playoffs, Lebron is done, AD is a stat-padding loser... it's a false narrative that they were expected to be great just because they have two top players. I know this because as soon as the trade was made I predicted on this forum the Lakers would win the title and that was far from an opinion shared by many other posters.

[yannisk]

Those who followed this thread last season know I posted hundreds of times and made a concerted effort to rationalize my assertions with numbers. Often, I posted numbers without making any assertion at all. In spite of that, what I found was that the thread went in circles for nine months and rarely did anyone say, "Hmmm. That's a good point. Food for thought." Even rarer was for anyone to change their mind about who the MVP should be (which I did several times, including in the last week of the season). I tried for an entire season to convince anyone that the goal posts needed to be dug into the ground before a real contest could begin (my rationalization for using a formula). What I found instead was that this is a thread where the goal posts were constantly shifting depending on where everyone's favorite player was at. I'm not going to make any more comments in this thread this season. The only possible exception will be my rankings based on my formula. (I've stopped posting those indefinitely while the NBA decides what to do about taking away Harden's dunk.) This isn't an uninformed decision on my part. I have an entire season's worth of experience from which to draw - hundreds of my own comments and hundreds of responses. And that was when only Antetokounmpo and Harden were in the running; I didn't even having to consider Luka fans, Lakers fans, or LeBron fans, all of whom are known for being incredibly impartial. As I said in my last post, carry on with your MVP thread, RealGM. Everyone have fun in your echo chambers.

I am afraid I will question your impartiality. You are using a formula, maybe is the perfect one maybe not, nobody knows since it is yours and i have no problem with that but every now and then by your own admission you are "tweaking" it, so why do you move the goal posts yourself? 9 months ago you argued using a formula (that nobody knows) and now you argue with a different formula (that again nobody knows). If the formula was giving us the answer last year why is it different this year? do you subconsciously tweak the formula to give you the answer you want to hear while fitting past winners? At the end, few messages above you reduced everything to "With: Without". Finally why do you accuse others of not using numbers? many people are using advanced stats which are also formulas and at least are not personal and stay constant (I don't doubt many choose which advanced stats to use to support their favorite player).

[clyde21]

I don't believe Harden's efficient ~40ppg or Giannis overall dominance are sustainable when it really counts given evidence from previous years. Otoh, I know Lebron and AD will be able to keep it up in the postseason and probably actually go up a gear.

When I think most valuable player, who I'd pick first if I needed to win a big series is a very important consideration

you're just coming up with your own rules now to justify an MVP for either LeBron or Davis, weak.

and I don't have Harden MVP either, but it has nothing to do with the playoffs. and it's funny hearing people talk about playoffs and Davis when he's done literally nothing in the postseason except get swept in the 2nd round.

and that's not even taking into consideration that LeBron/Davis play together. weren't you one of the ones that said Steph/KD were DQ'd from the MVP conversation because they were playing together?

There are no established rules for MVP voting, everyone votes for whoever they want according to what they value more and in the end whoever gets more votes wins. So yeah I'm making up my own rules, as is everyone else as no actual rules are defined.

The Durant/Curry situation is very different. The team was stacked even outside of them; actually neither of those two anchored the defense, it was Draymond. The Lakers are far more dependant on their top 2 players as the rest of their squad just isn't great, they'd be deep in the lottery without them and treadmill with just one. The Warriors grabbed top seeds even with Curry and Durant missing significant time.

Even with Lebron and AD, before the season started lots of people were saying they'd be a low seed or even miss the playoffs, Lebron is done, AD is a stat-padding loser... it's a false narrative that they were expected to be great just because they have two top players. I know this because as soon as the trade was made I predicted on this forum the Lakers would win the title and that was far from an opinion shared by many other posters.

this is just a bunch of arbitrary nonsense that you can change on a whim just to fit whatever narrative you're currently pushing. it's a rule that it's a RS season award, what you THINK will happen in the postseason is completely and utterly irrelevant to this discussion, especially when the other side of the argument is Davis who's done jack **** in the POs (and could barely get his own team to .500 himself) yet you have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt while taking it away from Giannis who just single handedly took his team to 60 wins and the ECF the day before.

and that might have been true their first year together (Steph/KD), but wasn't in 17 and 18, for 3 straight years you said they were DQ'd from the MVP conversation because they played together, not it's fine because it's LeBron/AD who play together? not hypocritical at all.

[LukaV]

Giannis by a mile, no one else is close. Lebron and AD take each other out of the MVP race as long as they're both playing/healthy. Dončić & Harden are very much behind on the defensive end. Siakam is great, but doesn't have the numbers yet.

[ken6199]

Which of the 3 mvp candidates should finish second if the season ended today?

Can you explain in very clear words - why you left Lebron out of the poll. Was it an intention or just a typo?

Same reason the thread you merged tihs with didn't list Kemba or Butler

So this is how you want to go down.

You created a blatant trolling thread asking for the runner up of MVP excluding Lebron. I could have easily dropped the hammer but wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt and ask you to clarify. You refused to communicate and chose to hit back.

To be clear, it is clearly stated on page 1 that the monthly rolling top 10 poll options are from Seikou's last MVP ranking post from the previous month. There is no personal agendas in it.

[bb22]

Although well deserving, don't think the voters will give it to Giannis again. Even though it shouldn't be factored in, his poor performance last postseason against the Raps hurts his image. In addition, there are so many guys who are playing sensational ball (so far) that awarding someone a back-to-back MVP award would be difficult without some truly exceptional production.

If the regular season ended today, the award would most likely go to Lebron. However, there's a lot more basketball left and things can/will change. Even thought Bron is gunning for another MVP, it's not completely outrageous to think that AD could grab both MVP and DVOP if the Lakers continue to win. His addition to this team has turned things around and he impacts the game equally well on both ends.

[HeatIn5]

I know he may not win, but asking again for Jimmy Butler to be added.

His VALUE to the Heat should be unquestioned.

Butler is not even in the conversation.

He should be in the "conversation", if the conversation is larger than the clear top 4 - Giannis, Luka, LBJ and Harden. He is the best player on a team that could finish top 2 in the East. That makes him in the "conversation" for sure.

The top 4 are set in stone however, and Giannis is just playing too good atm and the Bucks are crushing it. The only way i see him challenged is if Dallas continues to be like a top 2 seed in the West... If they remain a top 2 seed, then i believe Doncic will be MVP. The narrative will be too good

this. If guys like Jokic and Kemba are on this list, Jimmy needs to be too. Id be willing to bet he ends higher on ballots than both.

[LikeABosh]

If the regular season ended today, the award would most likely go to Lebron.

I'm not even sure if LeBron would secure the 3rd place vote. Giannis is definitely winning it if the season ended today

And he does have exceptional production. The volume of his counting stats has taken a hit because the Bucks have been blowing everyone out, but his per36 and per 100 possessions numbers are absurd.

[truly]

If the regular season ended today, the award would most likely go to Lebron.

I'm not even sure if LeBron would secure the 3rd place vote. Giannis is definitely winning it if the season ended today

They just had a poll with MVP voters and Giannis had a big lead there.No idea why people think he wouldn't win if the race ended now.

[DutchManDanFan]

Those who followed this thread last season know I posted hundreds of times and made a concerted effort to rationalize my assertions with numbers. Often, I posted numbers without making any assertion at all. In spite of that, what I found was that the thread went in circles for nine months and rarely did anyone say, "Hmmm. That's a good point. Food for thought." Even rarer was for anyone to change their mind about who the MVP should be (which I did several times, including in the last week of the season). I tried for an entire season to convince anyone that the goal posts needed to be dug into the ground before a real contest could begin (my rationalization for using a formula). What I found instead was that this is a thread where the goal posts were constantly shifting depending on where everyone's favorite player was at. I'm not going to make any more comments in this thread this season. The only possible exception will be my rankings based on my formula. (I've stopped posting those indefinitely while the NBA decides what to do about taking away Harden's dunk.) This isn't an uninformed decision on my part. I have an entire season's worth of experience from which to draw - hundreds of my own comments and hundreds of responses. And that was when only Antetokounmpo and Harden were in the running; I didn't even having to consider Luka fans, Lakers fans, or LeBron fans, all of whom are known for being incredibly impartial. As I said in my last post, carry on with your MVP thread, RealGM. Everyone have fun in your echo chambers.

I am afraid I will question your impartiality. You are using a formula, maybe is the perfect one maybe not, nobody knows since it is yours and i have no problem with that but every now and then by your own admission you are "tweaking" it, so why do you move the goal posts yourself? 9 months ago you argued using a formula (that nobody knows) and now you argue with a different formula (that again nobody knows). If the formula was giving us the answer last year why is it different this year? do you subconsciously tweak the formula to give you the answer you want to hear while fitting past winners? At the end, few messages above you reduced everything to "With: Without". Finally why do you accuse others of not using numbers? many people are using advanced stats which are also formulas and at least are not personal and stay constant (I don't doubt many choose which advanced stats to use to support0 their favorite player).

He explained why he changed his formula (bc a certain stat not being available). The point is, nobody votes with a difficult formula. The voters watch games, stats and standings and then form their (biased) opinion.
Bucks fans don’t care much about this award. Giannis doesn’t care himself. It’s all about winning the championship. But if you see Giannis play every game and you look at the stats and the standings, you know it’s very difficult for someone else to beat him in MVP voting. No formula or advanced stats needed.

[Vsauce12]

Those who followed this thread last season know I posted hundreds of times and made a concerted effort to rationalize my assertions with numbers. Often, I posted numbers without making any assertion at all. In spite of that, what I found was that the thread went in circles for nine months and rarely did anyone say, "Hmmm. That's a good point. Food for thought." Even rarer was for anyone to change their mind about who the MVP should be (which I did several times, including in the last week of the season). I tried for an entire season to convince anyone that the goal posts needed to be dug into the ground before a real contest could begin (my rationalization for using a formula). What I found instead was that this is a thread where the goal posts were constantly shifting depending on where everyone's favorite player was at. I'm not going to make any more comments in this thread this season. The only possible exception will be my rankings based on my formula. (I've stopped posting those indefinitely while the NBA decides what to do about taking away Harden's dunk.) This isn't an uninformed decision on my part. I have an entire season's worth of experience from which to draw - hundreds of my own comments and hundreds of responses. And that was when only Antetokounmpo and Harden were in the running; I didn't even having to consider Luka fans, Lakers fans, or LeBron fans, all of whom are known for being incredibly impartial. As I said in my last post, carry on with your MVP thread, RealGM. Everyone have fun in your echo chambers.

I am afraid I will question your impartiality. You are using a formula, maybe is the perfect one maybe not, nobody knows since it is yours and i have no problem with that but every now and then by your own admission you are "tweaking" it, so why do you move the goal posts yourself? 9 months ago you argued using a formula (that nobody knows) and now you argue with a different formula (that again nobody knows). If the formula was giving us the answer last year why is it different this year? do you subconsciously tweak the formula to give you the answer you want to hear while fitting past winners? At the end, few messages above you reduced everything to "With: Without". Finally why do you accuse others of not using numbers? many people are using advanced stats which are also formulas and at least are not personal and stay constant (I don't doubt many choose which advanced stats to use to support0 their favorite player).

He explained why he changed his formula (bc a certain stat not being available). The point is, nobody votes with a difficult formula. The voters watch games, stats and standings and then form their (biased) opinion.
Bucks fans don’t care much about this award. Giannis doesn’t care himself. It’s all about winning the championship. But if you see Giannis play every game and you look at the stats and the standings, you know it’s very difficult for someone else to beat him in MVP voting. No formula or advanced stats needed.

Can fans stop with this bs about players not caring about winning the MVP? Giannis sure as hell cares, last season before he won his MVP he came out and said in an interview before the start of the 2018-2019 season, that towards the end of the 2017-2018 season, he chased the MVP. So sure as hell cares and why wouldn’t he? Winning the MVP puts you in rarefied air and winning B2B MVPs puts you in a very exclusive club

There’s a difference between caring about winning the MVP and that simply being your only goal and giving very little fks about team goals

[Coach Carter]

As of today, giannis though i'll accept luka. Both averaging crazy numbers despite only playing 31 n 33 min respectively. Neither have a teammate superstar like Bron. Bron who doesn't have the numbers, not mention is averaging almost 35min. Knowing the media though, they'll give this to bron.

[Ballerhogger]

AD dropping 50 on Towns tonight

[Wolfgang630]

Today continues to show LeBron isn’t the top MVP candidate. AD plays like an MVP candidate too. They cancel out each other.

[Vsauce12]

AD just dropped 50, proving why lebron is the MVP. Just like how tom Brady wills his defence, lebron willed ADs shots into the basket. Truly the most valuable player, give him the MVP rn

[Joey Wheeler]

you're just coming up with your own rules now to justify an MVP for either LeBron or Davis, weak.

and I don't have Harden MVP either, but it has nothing to do with the playoffs. and it's funny hearing people talk about playoffs and Davis when he's done literally nothing in the postseason except get swept in the 2nd round.

and that's not even taking into consideration that LeBron/Davis play together. weren't you one of the ones that said Steph/KD were DQ'd from the MVP conversation because they were playing together?

There are no established rules for MVP voting, everyone votes for whoever they want according to what they value more and in the end whoever gets more votes wins. So yeah I'm making up my own rules, as is everyone else as no actual rules are defined.

The Durant/Curry situation is very different. The team was stacked even outside of them; actually neither of those two anchored the defense, it was Draymond. The Lakers are far more dependant on their top 2 players as the rest of their squad just isn't great, they'd be deep in the lottery without them and treadmill with just one. The Warriors grabbed top seeds even with Curry and Durant missing significant time.

Even with Lebron and AD, before the season started lots of people were saying they'd be a low seed or even miss the playoffs, Lebron is done, AD is a stat-padding loser... it's a false narrative that they were expected to be great just because they have two top players. I know this because as soon as the trade was made I predicted on this forum the Lakers would win the title and that was far from an opinion shared by many other posters.

this is just a bunch of arbitrary nonsense that you can change on a whim just to fit whatever narrative you're currently pushing. it's a rule that it's a RS season award, what you THINK will happen in the postseason is completely and utterly irrelevant to this discussion, especially when the other side of the argument is Davis who's done jack **** in the POs (and could barely get his own team to .500 himself) yet you have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt while taking it away from Giannis who just single handedly took his team to 60 wins and the ECF the day before.

and that might have been true their first year together (Steph/KD), but wasn't in 17 and 18, for 3 straight years you said they were DQ'd from the MVP conversation because they played together, not it's fine because it's LeBron/AD who play together? not hypocritical at all.

I'm not giving benefit of the doubt to anyone, I'm going off what we've seen of both players, with AD performing great in the playoffs and Giannis struggling even last year when he won the MVP. Their games/skillsets and previous history strongly suggest Giannis is easier to neutralize in the playoffs. Let's not even talk about Lebron here.

But honestly, it's looking like AD might be the right choice even without projecting playoff performances. His scoring numbers and efficiency are going up game by game as his chemistry with Lebron improves, going to finish on 28-30ppg on ~62-63% TS most likely. He's also the league's best defensive player and will run away with the DPOY award: just neutered Towns days after doing the same to Jokic.

I never said they were disqualified because they played together, but because of how stacked the team was overall. In 2017 they went on a huge win without Durant; in 2018 and 2019 they grabbed a top seed easily coasting while Curry missed a lot of games, then they got to the Finals without Durant. This is not the situation with the Lakers at all, their overall roster isn't stacked, they have two elite guys and a bunch of role players.

[Magic Giannison]

AD performing great in the playoffs? what?

Giannis got neutralized?when?


What is this revisionists history im reading again.

Giannis was getting guarded by the best defensive team in the last 15 years ,being triple teamed everytime and put 23/12/6 and shutting down Siakam all series.

In fact Giannis was the best defender in the playoffs.

Honestly, stop promoting false narratives that got debunked ages ago.

Also Lakers roster isnt stacked? what?

Holy cow these takes man