MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[iamworthy]

I don't think anyone could watch the Lakers regularly and think that Lebron isn't the best player on the team. AD is a weapon, but Lebron is who makes the whole thing tick. The Lakers often look somewhat listless when Lebron is out, but they generally still look very good when AD is out. This is largely about role - Lebron is the architect, AD is the finisher - but if you had to bet on the Lakers surviving an injury to one of them, you'd definitely bet on them having greater success with Lebron vs. AD, as great as Davis is.

Now, I'm not sure that makes Lebron AD over Giannis, but it also doesn't make sense to say that he's disqualified because AD had a great game.

I agree with this. If you watch Laker games LeBron is better than AD and it's not really close.

[LeBird]

I don't think anyone could watch the Lakers regularly and think that Lebron isn't the best player on the team. AD is a weapon, but Lebron is who makes the whole thing tick. The Lakers often look somewhat listless when Lebron is out, but they generally still look very good when AD is out. This is largely about role - Lebron is the architect, AD is the finisher - but if you had to bet on the Lakers surviving an injury to one of them, you'd definitely bet on them having greater success with Lebron vs. AD, as great as Davis is.

Now, I'm not sure that makes Lebron AD over Giannis, but it also doesn't make sense to say that he's disqualified because AD had a great game.

Yeah, AD is playing at MVP level, but so is LeBron and he is even more important to the Lakers. He is conducting it all. And he hasn't taken defense off this year either, in fact the opposite, so I don't see how AD has more of an impact. Even watching this game, many of ADs points are literally lobs over the basket by LeBron, I'm not sure how it gets easier than when someone of GOAT level passing skill and IQ is next to you. The pick and roll is going to destroy come playoffs.

[Texas Chuck]

You have to take account market, spotlight, fanbase, media, and brand. Giannis doesn’t play in that high pressure environment like Lebron and AD do. I’m willing to bet Giannis will struggle to live up to his potential and become the player he’s right now if he started his career in LA.

That feels like a sucker's bet. What evidence do you have that leads you to that conclusion? One playoff series loss that people are overreacting to? This idea that we still live in 1981 where you have to physically be in LA or NY to be a superstar and have the attention of the world on you?

Did Lebron James not face spotlight or pressure in that huge media hotbed of Cleveland?

Maybe Giannis would have struggled in LA, but its much more likely to be due to the incompetence of Lakers management during the span of his career than to him not being able to handle it. Hard for anyone to win when the team takes its cap space around him and rushes out to give Deng Mozgov twice as many years and 4x as much money as any other team would have.

[Dajadeed]

I don't think anyone could watch the Lakers regularly and think that Lebron isn't the best player on the team. AD is a weapon, but Lebron is who makes the whole thing tick. The Lakers often look somewhat listless when Lebron is out, but they generally still look very good when AD is out. This is largely about role - Lebron is the architect, AD is the finisher - but if you had to bet on the Lakers surviving an injury to one of them, you'd definitely bet on them having greater success with Lebron vs. AD, as great as Davis is.

Now, I'm not sure that makes Lebron AD over Giannis, but it also doesn't make sense to say that he's disqualified because AD had a great game.

I agree with this. If you watch Laker games LeBron is better than AD and it's not really close.

This is Shaq/Kobe again. The having 2 top 5 players who play both ends and dominate part of it.

I love it.

[MarcusBrody]

You have to take account market, spotlight, fanbase, media, and brand. Giannis doesn’t play in that high pressure environment like Lebron and AD do. I’m willing to bet Giannis will struggle to live up to his potential and become the player he’s right now if he started his career in LA.

That feels like a sucker's bet. What evidence do you have that leads you to that conclusion? One playoff series loss that people are overreacting to? This idea that we still live in 1981 where you have to physically be in LA or NY to be a superstar and have the attention of the world on you?

Did Lebron James not face spotlight or pressure in that huge media hotbed of Cleveland?

Maybe Giannis would have struggled in LA, but its much more likely to be due to the incompetence of Lakers management during the span of his career than to him not being able to handle it. Hard for anyone to win when the team takes its cap space around him and rushes out to give Deng Mozgov twice as many years and 4x as much money as any other team would have.

I agree with this completely. I have nothing but complete respect for Giannis's drive and focus. I think he was going to make something of himself anywhere. But yeah. I'm not sure I'd have trusted some recent Lakers infrastructure to develop young Kareem reincarnate for a good chunk of the past 15 years.

[An Unbiased Fan]

AD is the Lakers leading scorer, leading rebounder, and the likely DPOY. How is he not MVP over Lebron?

[An Unbiased Fan]

I don't think anyone could watch the Lakers regularly and think that Lebron isn't the best player on the team. AD is a weapon, but Lebron is who makes the whole thing tick. The Lakers often look somewhat listless when Lebron is out, but they generally still look very good when AD is out. This is largely about role - Lebron is the architect, AD is the finisher - but if you had to bet on the Lakers surviving an injury to one of them, you'd definitely bet on them having greater success with Lebron vs. AD, as great as Davis is.

Now, I'm not sure that makes Lebron AD over Giannis, but it also doesn't make sense to say that he's disqualified because AD had a great game.

I agree with this. If you watch Laker games LeBron is better than AD and it's not really close.

This is Shaq/Kobe again. The having 2 top 5 players who play both ends and dominate part of it.

I love it.

It is, but now all of a sudden being the facilitating role is impoartant. Where with Kobe it got disregarded

[MarcusBrody]

I agree with this. If you watch Laker games LeBron is better than AD and it's not really close.

This is Shaq/Kobe again. The having 2 top 5 players who play both ends and dominate part of it.

I love it.

It is, but now all of a sudden being the facilitating role is impoartant. Where with Kobe it got disregarded

It didn't get overlooked. In fact, it's how Nash won his MVPs during that era. Kobe was a fine facilitator when he wanted to be, but no one would ever have claimed he was the best facilitator in the league, or even one of them really.

I'm totally fine with the idea that AD is an MVP candidate for the reasons you just mentioned. He's been spectacular. But the difference between Lebron and Davis's scoring averages is half the difference between Lebron's assist points created and anyone else in the league (not just anyone else on the Lakers).

And that passes the eye test. When Lebron is in, the team looks like a well-oiled machine and even the role players look confident and efficient. When he's out. Less so. It's one reason why his +/- is currently better than Davis's.

So, that's how someone could see Lebron as the more likely Lakers MVP over Davis even if Davis also has a strong case (though as I noted before, I probably still lean Giannis at this point).

[An Unbiased Fan]

This is Shaq/Kobe again. The having 2 top 5 players who play both ends and dominate part of it.

I love it.

It is, but now all of a sudden being the facilitating role is impoartant. Where with Kobe it got disregarded

It didn't get overlooked. In fact, it's how Nash won his MVPs during that era. Kobe was a fine facilitator when he wanted to be, but no one would ever have claimed he was the best facilitator in the league, or even one of them really.

I'm totally fine with the idea that AD is an MVP candidate for the reasons you just mentioned. He's been spectacular. But the difference between Lebron and Davis's scoring averages is half the difference between Lebron's assist points created and anyone else in the league (not just anyone else on the Lakers).

And that passes the eye test. When Lebron is in, the team looks like a well-oiled machine and even the role players look confident and efficient. When he's out. Less so. It's one reason why his +/- is currently better than Davis's.

So, that's how someone could see Lebron as the more likely Lakers MVP over Davis even if Davis also has a strong case (though as I noted before, I probably still lean Giannis at this point).

But AD is a legit DPOY pick right now. How can he be LA's main scorer, rebounder, defender, and not MVP? It's nice that Lebron is getting assists, but AD has turned the whole team around.

[MarcusBrody]

It is, but now all of a sudden being the facilitating role is impoartant. Where with Kobe it got disregarded

It didn't get overlooked. In fact, it's how Nash won his MVPs during that era. Kobe was a fine facilitator when he wanted to be, but no one would ever have claimed he was the best facilitator in the league, or even one of them really.

I'm totally fine with the idea that AD is an MVP candidate for the reasons you just mentioned. He's been spectacular. But the difference between Lebron and Davis's scoring averages is half the difference between Lebron's assist points created and anyone else in the league (not just anyone else on the Lakers).

And that passes the eye test. When Lebron is in, the team looks like a well-oiled machine and even the role players look confident and efficient. When he's out. Less so. It's one reason why his +/- is currently better than Davis's.

So, that's how someone could see Lebron as the more likely Lakers MVP over Davis even if Davis also has a strong case (though as I noted before, I probably still lean Giannis at this point).

But AD is a legit DPOY pick right now. How can he be LA's main scorer, rebounder, defender, and not MVP? It's nice that Lebron is getting assists, but AD has turned the whole team around.

This is a fine argument in favor of AD. I can see how people would be swayed. The defense is its biggest strength as saying he is LA's main scorer glosses over that he is just above Lebron in points and is much less important to LA's overall offense. I know you don't like Lebron, but I assume you watch Laker's games and you can see that Lebron drives the overall scoring output of the team much more than AD. So AD plays excellent offense and has the advantage on defense. Lebron plays very good defense and has the advantage on offense. Just depends on how you weight those things. They clearly are a very good fit for one another.

[Joey Wheeler]

AD performing great in the playoffs? what?

Giannis got neutralized?when?


What is this revisionists history im reading again.

Giannis was getting guarded by the best defensive team in the last 15 years ,being triple teamed everytime and put 23/12/6 and shutting down Siakam all series.

In fact Giannis was the best defender in the playoffs.

Honestly, stop promoting false narratives that got debunked ages ago.

Also Lakers roster isnt stacked? what?

Holy cow these takes man

2015 vs eventual champion and elite playoff defense Warriors - 32/11/2, 3 blocks, 1 steal, 61% TS.
2018 vs 3rd seed Blazers - 33/12/1, 3 blocks, 2 steals, 65% TS
2018 vs eventual champion dynasty Warriors - 28/15/2, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 53% TS

Overall playoff numbers, with most of the sample against an historic team and playoff defense: 31/13/2, 3 blocks, 2 steals, 59% TS.

If this isn't great playoff performance, then only a handful of players ever performed great in the playoffs.

[zimpy27]

AD is the Lakers leading scorer, leading rebounder, and the likely DPOY. How is he not MVP over Lebron?

You should know that LeBron is far more valuable from watching the games.

But here are the on/off stats for you:
Lakers are 12.2 points BETTER with LeBron on the court compared to when he's off the court
Lakers are 6 points WORSE with Davis on the court compared to when he's off the court

[KGtabake]

AD is the Lakers leading scorer, leading rebounder, and the likely DPOY. How is he not MVP over Lebron?

You should know that LeBron is far more valuable from watching the games.

But here are the on/off stats for you:
Lakers are 12.2 points BETTER with LeBron on the court compared to when he's off the court
Lakers are 6 points WORSE with Davis on the court compared to when he's off the court

Advanced stats are sometimes misleading. I mean i haven't watched many lakers games but i find it difficult to accept that they are better without AD.

[Colbinii]

AD is the Lakers leading scorer, leading rebounder, and the likely DPOY. How is he not MVP over Lebron?

You should know that LeBron is far more valuable from watching the games.

But here are the on/off stats for you:
Lakers are 12.2 points BETTER with LeBron on the court compared to when he's off the court
Lakers are 6 points WORSE with Davis on the court compared to when he's off the court

Advanced stats are sometimes misleading. I mean i haven't watched many lakers games but i find it difficult to accept that they are better without AD.

On/Off isn't an advanced stat.

It is actually one of the most basic stats ever. You dont even need to track what a player does on the court [score/shoot/pass/rebound]. You just look at the score...

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[KGtabake]

You should know that LeBron is far more valuable from watching the games.

But here are the on/off stats for you:
Lakers are 12.2 points BETTER with LeBron on the court compared to when he's off the court
Lakers are 6 points WORSE with Davis on the court compared to when he's off the court

Advanced stats are sometimes misleading. I mean i haven't watched many lakers games but i find it difficult to accept that they are better without AD.

On/Off isn't an advanced stat.

It is actually one of the most basic stats ever. You dont even need to track what a player does on the court [score/shoot/pass/rebound]. You just look at the score...

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ok but from the games you've watched, is it true? They're better without him?

[yoyoboy]

Davis + Caruso ON, LeBron OFF: -1.4
LeBron + Caruso ON, Davis OFF: +17.6

Davis + Bradley ON, LeBron OFF: -14.7
LeBron + Bradley ON, Davis OFF: +23.1

Davis + Green ON, LeBron OFF: +10.8
LeBron + Green ON, Davis OFF: +18.2

Davis + Howard ON, LeBron OFF: +23.2
LeBron + Howard ON, Davis OFF: +13.2

Davis + McGee ON, LeBron OFF: -27.3
LeBron + McGee ON, Davis OFF: +32.5

Davis + Dudley ON, LeBron OFF: -69.5
LeBron + Dudley ON, Davis OFF: +6.4

Davis + Caldwell-Pope ON, LeBron OFF: +6.1
LeBron + Caldwell-Pope ON, Davis OFF: +10.2

Davis + Kuzma ON, LeBron OFF: -13.3
LeBron + Kuzma ON, Davis OFF: +14.3

Davis + Cook ON, LeBron OFF: -4.6
LeBron + Cook ON, Davis OFF: +35.1

Davis + Rondo ON, LeBron OFF: -0.5
LeBron + Rondo ON, Davis OFF: +27.7

Davis + Daniels ON, LeBron OFF: -8.0
LeBron + Daniels ON, Davis OFF: +3.8

Davis ON, LeBron OFF: -1.3
LeBron ON, Davis OFF: +16.2


Davis has been incredible, but if we're talking who's more valuable to the Lakers...it's really no question. LA is clearly more dependent on LeBron's ability to break down the defense and playmaking than they are on Davis' interior scoring and rim protection. That's not to say Davis hasn't been crazy valuable because he has. I'd slot him in at 5th in my MVP voting. But when you consider the fact that both Davis and LeBron are playing 34.4 MPG. Their usage rates are within 1.2% of each other (30.9% for AD vs 32.1% for LBJ). And LeBron actually seems to play more minutes without the starters. LeBron has 106 MP with no starters at all while AD has 52. LeBron has played 195 minutes without Green, McGee, and Davis while AD has played 135 minutes without Green, McGee, and LeBron (since KCP and Avery haven't started every game). LeBron has 236 MP with Caruso and Davis has 223. LeBron has 319 MP with Howard and Davis has 187. LeBron has 277 MP with Kuzma and Davis has 219. LeBron has 155 MP with Rondo and Davis has 149 MP. LeBron has 73 MP with Cook and Davis has 142. LeBron has 131 MP with Daniels and Davis has 102. LeBron has 33 MP with Dudley and Davis has 12.

Then it's really no contest. LeBron also has a higher BPM, a higher PIPM, and a higher RAPTOR, so he edges him out in the box-score influenced "impact" metrics, as well. The only advantages AD has are in PER and WS, which frankly aren't even relevant figures anymore now that stats have come along which do a better job of evaluating impact based on the box score.

[Colbinii]

Advanced stats are sometimes misleading. I mean i haven't watched many lakers games but i find it difficult to accept that they are better without AD.

On/Off isn't an advanced stat.

It is actually one of the most basic stats ever. You dont even need to track what a player does on the court [score/shoot/pass/rebound]. You just look at the score...

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ok but from the games you've watched, is it true? They're better without him?

No because a lot of that time includes time where LeBron also sits.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[NeutralObserver]

I don't think anyone could watch the Lakers regularly and think that Lebron isn't the best player on the team. AD is a weapon, but Lebron is who makes the whole thing tick. The Lakers often look somewhat listless when Lebron is out, but they generally still look very good when AD is out. This is largely about role - Lebron is the architect, AD is the finisher - but if you had to bet on the Lakers surviving an injury to one of them, you'd definitely bet on them having greater success with Lebron vs. AD, as great as Davis is.

Now, I'm not sure that makes Lebron AD over Giannis, but it also doesn't make sense to say that he's disqualified because AD had a great game.

Wow. LeBron fans with the casual revisionist history. We JUST saw the Lakers without AD last season getting their **** caved in by 40 points by the Oladipo-less Pacers. But yeah, AD's impact is surely negligible. I wonder what changed from this year and last year.

Geez @ this fluid goalpost. LeBron can be the architect, the carpenter, the locksmith, or whatever arbitrary role you wanna attribute to him.

The ENTIRE team feeds him like he's Wilt Chamberlain and he's casually dropping 20-30pts points by halftime without breaking a sweat.

Sounds pretty valuable to me.

[zimpy27]

Advanced stats are sometimes misleading. I mean i haven't watched many lakers games but i find it difficult to accept that they are better without AD.

On/Off isn't an advanced stat.

It is actually one of the most basic stats ever. You dont even need to track what a player does on the court [score/shoot/pass/rebound]. You just look at the score...

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ok but from the games you've watched, is it true? They're better without him?

Vogel staggers the lineups. So Davis is on the court when LeBron sits and vice versa.

LeBron + AD > LeBron only > AD only > neither LeBron or AD

Of course, having AD is better than not having him. LeBron is just making him look bad. That's not entirely to do with skill either. There isn't anyone else that replaces the best PG in the league, there's a huge dropoff on the Lakers. But AD's skills are isolation and rim protection, there's plenty of rim protection on the Lakers and LeBron is a better isolation player, so AD is more replaceable and therefore less valuable.

[reignfire]

AD's net rating per 100: +8 on court/+14 off court (-6)

Lebron James: +13.3 on/+1.1 off (+12.2)

Kawhi Leonard: +12.2 on/+0.6 off (+11.6)

Greek Freak: +16 on/+9.3 off (+6.7)

Luka Doncic: +7.7 on/+12.4 off (-4.7)

James Harden: +10 on/-8.7 off (+18.7) This is skewed IMO because he's their only offense when he's on court.

Jimmy Butler +9.9 on/-0.5 off (+10.4)


So basically the most impact players so far this season are Lebron, Kawhi, and Jimmy Butler. People can argue for Harden as well but I won't. Luka and AD not looking good because their teams do better when they sit.

Greek is an amazing +16 when he plays but without him his team is still +9.3 per 100.

I think the 3 top guys this season when it comes to impact on team success is:

1. Lebron
2. Kawhi
3. Jimmy Butler

Stats are a different story. But that's for other people to be concerned with.