Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It?

[twix2500]

This team should go after a PF star type player so Bam can move to Center. Herro should replace Nunn as a starter at some point. Wouldn't mind seeing a lineup like this one by the Allstar break assuming we include Dragic and DJJ on the trade:

Starters:

Herro
Butler
Winslow
Love, Gallo or Griffin
Bam

Bench:

Nunn
Waiters
Duncan
JJ
KO

Also assuming no team is taking JJ or Dion from us at this point.

I'm hoping for 3 solid 3pt shooters in the starting lineup and on the the court as much as possible hence me not liking Butler, Winslow, and Bam to start but there are situations where you want 3 good/great defensive players on the court at the same time at the cost of outside shooting for spacing. You need players to hit shots for the playmakers which there are already 2 in the starting lineup with Butler and Bam and once Herro gets to the starting lineup, he can playmake also. For Winslow, what's his role currently and in the future for Miami? I think with Butler on the roster, PF is where Winslow needs to go but he has to hit 3s(for spacing) to make it work next to Bam. Winslow at the 4 makes the defense tougher with the ability to switch more(and have more good/great defenders on the court) and the roster more diverse allowing Winslow to play a wing or PF position so Spo can decide what he wants on the court, go bigger with Olynyk or a more pure shooter like Robinson.

I am 100% with you on the spacing subject. I believe it's needed to win in today's NBA. But what I am thinking is that bringing in a volume shooter at PF who is also a star caliber player for instance Gallo or Love and also replacing Nunn with Herro in the starting lineup, then I believe we can live with Winslow deficiencies and his positives would outweigh the negatives. I also think he'll be able to benefit from the wide open looks he'll see from distance and hit them with higher efficiency. The attention Herro, Butler and Gallo or Love would require opens up a whole new universe for Bam and Winslow on Offense.

The spacing is already there for Bam. Volume shooter is taking a shot away from someone else. Duncan gets tons of attention on the perimeter, Leonard gets his respects out there too even thou he just passes up shots. I would take Love over Gallo, because as right now Love can help carry an offense if you are looking for play taking the high volume of shots. Love playoff experience would be a big help this year. I would take Marcus Morris over Gallo right now. I think Bam needs more help defensively. Morris is a two way player who can sub for Bam and play with Bam.

[Wiltside]

A random thought I had.

What if we traded for Robert Covington and Gorgui Dieng?

Why?:

Covington fits pretty perfectly in our style of lineup. He's not a facilitator, but is a deep ball threat and very good defensively. The downside? His contract expires in 2021/22, albeit it's a pretty modest $12.9m for the type of production you're getting. The type of player that would fit in just about any lineup.

So far in 19/20, he's averaging 12.9ppg, 5.4rpg, 1.4apg, 1.1apg, 1.4spg, 0.9bpg, 1.6tpg in 27.9mpg. Shooting 46.2% from the field, 38.1% from 3 (2.1 makes per) and 89.8% from the line.

Dieng is a big body that expires in the 2021 offseason. Making money of around $16m over the next 2 years. He's not playing much behind Towns, but would offer similar to what Leonard does offensively and is a better rim protector. Hasn't played more than 17 minutes a night for the past couple years, but if he was playing similar minutes to Meyers - I reckon he'd offer slightly more.

What would be the cost?:

Hard to say specifically, but can't imagine it would be exorbitant. May cost us Leonard, Jones Jr and Dion Waiters/James Johnson, or something to that extent. I'd imagine they want immediate cap relief (Leonard), a young prospect (Jones Jr) and JJ is the deal to make the math work. JJ expires same offseason as Dieng anyway, so that's a wash.

PG - Nunn / Dragic
SG - Butler / Herro
SF - Robinson / Winslow (shifting across multiple positions)
PF - Covington / Olynyk
C - Adebayo / Dieng

Strong ability to mix and match lineups, and Covington adds another really good defensive player to the lineup.

In crunch time, we can roll with:

PG - Winslow
SG - Herro
SF - Butler
PF - Covington
C - Adebayo

When we need some size and shooting around our defensive death lineup.

I could be way off on the price, but I can't imagine they'd expect much more than that, realistically.

[MadD23]

I'm hoping for 3 solid 3pt shooters in the starting lineup and on the the court as much as possible hence me not liking Butler, Winslow, and Bam to start but there are situations where you want 3 good/great defensive players on the court at the same time at the cost of outside shooting for spacing. You need players to hit shots for the playmakers which there are already 2 in the starting lineup with Butler and Bam and once Herro gets to the starting lineup, he can playmake also. For Winslow, what's his role currently and in the future for Miami? I think with Butler on the roster, PF is where Winslow needs to go but he has to hit 3s(for spacing) to make it work next to Bam. Winslow at the 4 makes the defense tougher with the ability to switch more(and have more good/great defenders on the court) and the roster more diverse allowing Winslow to play a wing or PF position so Spo can decide what he wants on the court, go bigger with Olynyk or a more pure shooter like Robinson.

I am 100% with you on the spacing subject. I believe it's needed to win in today's NBA. But what I am thinking is that bringing in a volume shooter at PF who is also a star caliber player for instance Gallo or Love and also replacing Nunn with Herro in the starting lineup, then I believe we can live with Winslow deficiencies and his positives would outweigh the negatives. I also think he'll be able to benefit from the wide open looks he'll see from distance and hit them with higher efficiency. The attention Herro, Butler and Gallo or Love would require opens up a whole new universe for Bam and Winslow on Offense.

The spacing is already there for Bam. Volume shooter is taking a shot away from someone else. Duncan gets tons of attention on the perimeter, Leonard gets his respects out there too even thou he just passes up shots. I would take Love over Gallo, because as right now Love can help carry an offense if you are looking for play taking the high volume of shots. Love playoff experience would be a big help this year. I would take Marcus Morris over Gallo right now. I think Bam needs more help defensively. Morris is a two way player who can sub for Bam and play with Bam.

I'll be good with Morris as well. Gallo and Love's Defense don't concern me too much with Butler, Winslow and Bam being the anchors Defensively.

BTW Bam is becoming a more dependent scorer and that is huge for this team. We are one key player away from contending I believe. I like Love or Gallo a little better because I know they'll provide a big boost for us scoring the ball in the playoffs and both are fearless under pressure. It'll take some pressure off Butler's shoulders. He needs the help in a 7 game series and our young players might not be there for him every night consistently.

[Wiltside]

Bigs id like to try acquire:

- Nikola Vucevic or Mo Bamba, whoever is out of favour.
- Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis; are they playable together or will Indy have to choose?

On a cheaper end of the spectrum, Dewayne Dedmon or Harry Giles would also interest me.
-

[Mos_Heat]

Spoiler:

A random thought I had.

What if we traded for Robert Covington and Gorgui Dieng?

Why?:

Covington fits pretty perfectly in our style of lineup. He's not a facilitator, but is a deep ball threat and very good defensively. The downside? His contract expires in 2021/22, albeit it's a pretty modest $12.9m for the type of production you're getting. The type of player that would fit in just about any lineup.

So far in 19/20, he's averaging 12.9ppg, 5.4rpg, 1.4apg, 1.1apg, 1.4spg, 0.9bpg, 1.6tpg in 27.9mpg. Shooting 46.2% from the field, 38.1% from 3 (2.1 makes per) and 89.8% from the line.

Dieng is a big body that expires in the 2021 offseason. Making money of around $16m over the next 2 years. He's not playing much behind Towns, but would offer similar to what Leonard does offensively and is a better rim protector. Hasn't played more than 17 minutes a night for the past couple years, but if he was playing similar minutes to Meyers - I reckon he'd offer slightly more.

What would be the cost?:

Hard to say specifically, but can't imagine it would be exorbitant. May cost us Leonard, Jones Jr and Dion Waiters/James Johnson, or something to that extent. I'd imagine they want immediate cap relief (Leonard), a young prospect (Jones Jr) and JJ is the deal to make the math work. JJ expires same offseason as Dieng anyway, so that's a wash.

PG - Nunn / Dragic
SG - Butler / Herro
SF - Robinson / Winslow (shifting across multiple positions)
PF - Covington / Olynyk
C - Adebayo / Dieng

Strong ability to mix and match lineups, and Covington adds another really good defensive player to the lineup.

In crunch time, we can roll with:

PG - Winslow
SG - Herro
SF - Butler
PF - Covington
C - Adebayo

When we need some size and shooting around our defensive death lineup.

I could be way off on the price, but I can't imagine they'd expect much more than that, realistically.

lol, Bob is one of the best role players in the league. No way they would do this deal.

[twix2500]

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[Wiltside]

He ain’t coming anytime soon. Time to move on I think.

[caliban]

Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%

.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.

[puppa bear]

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That extension he signed all but ruled him out of trade discussions for the season. There’s a small window between Jan 15 & Feb 7 where he can be moved before the deadline. Any deal for him this year will be difficult because of matching salary and incentives for the Wiz.
He’ll definitely be an off-season target.

We’ll be in a better position next year, with some expiring deals, the ability to trade our 2020 pick (after making it) and then a future pick, and no longer being hard capped we’d be able to take on Wall as well (125% rule rather than the hard cap) to allow Wiz to fully reset around Rui & their pick this year.

[DayofMourning]

Beal at max isn't that valuable, especially considering the young pieces we have, the position they play, and the skill set they provide.

If you want to pay max it should probably be for an MVP candidate.

[DayofMourning]

Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%

.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.

This is just one of the reasons why youre the best poster on this board.

[HeatFanLifer]

Spoiler:

Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%

.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.

KO’s contract is a player option for next season. It looks like he is going to decline the option and become a FA.

[AirP.]

Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Spoiler:

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%

.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.

You're also talking about 2 completely different teams and 2 different roles on the team, Olynyk is a roleplayer who plays in more favorable matchups while K.Love is a main player who plays against starting caliber players much more then Olynyk. I get their stretch bigs but they really aren't performing the same role for each of their teams.

Olynyk / Love
23 / 30 - Minutes per game
66% / 57% - The % of FGA when open or wide open
35% / 34% - the % of hitting 3s when just "open"

https://stats.nba.com/player/203482/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/201567/shots-dash/

Also, when you compare their seasons this year for PER36 for what their rate of stats are.
Love 18.6 pts, 12.5 rebs, 3.1 asts
Olynyk 13.9 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.1 asts

Love and Olynyk's stats this season.

On their ORTG-DRTG Olynyk is way ahead, but once again, one is a main cog on a bad team the other a roleplayer on a good team.
Olynyk +9
Love -3
Looking at the Cavs starters...oof. This ORGT and DRGT does try to extract how a player is effecting the game but it does also calculate what the team on the court with the player is doing and his teammates are horrible by the numbers.
Sexton -15
Osman -12
Garland -30
Thompson +1
Nance +7
Clarkson -6

Kevin Love in this offense next to Bam would be a great addition that would help solidify the starting rotation, his passing in the half court offense would be a plus, his ability to be a main option would allow Butler some more rest, and his rebounding and outlet passing would help get some easy fast break points nearly every game. I get not the perfect fit but with how he has to work on his body to stay in shape(once he committed to that), he seems like a guy who'd fit in with the Heat culture which is an important part of acquiring a high priced player for Miami.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Why ruin 2021 cap space for players that won't make us contenders? We should be going after Aldridge who'd be a great fit for this team.

[AirP.]

Why ruin 2021 cap space for players that won't make us contenders? We should be going after Aldridge who'd be a great fit for this team.

Ruin the cap for 2021, depends on how you do things and how big the vet player's contract is in 2021. So I'm going to try to sort this out here...

Based on Spotrac
Salaries
Butler 36 mil
Winslow 13 mil
Herro 4 mil
KZ 1.7 mil

Roughly 55 mil

Dead money
Anderson 5.2

Now at 60

Holds
Bam 12.8
Robinson 2.1
Nunn 2.1
Olynyk 18.2

Now at ~95.5 mil

The question is, would you consolidate Justise (13 mil) and Olynyk(18.2) combined 31.2 million into a better player? Say it's love, then 2021 you'd have 6 of your 8-9 man rotation with possibly Nunn, Herro, Butler, Love, Bam, Robinson and a max contract to offer.
So basically (if I'm not missing something)
Herro, Butler, Robinson, Love, Bam with Nunn on the bench.
vs
Justise, Herro, Butler, Olynyk, Bam with Robinson and Nunn on the bench.
Which would rather join up with? I vote for the Love lineup in 2 years, and with Love's contract leveling off and then declining, he may be looked at as an asset that could be moved if Miami wanted to at the time(I'm assuming his numbers look much better with Miami than with Cleveland).

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Why ruin 2021 cap space for players that won't make us contenders? We should be going after Aldridge who'd be a great fit for this team.

Ruin the cap for 2021, depends on how you do things and how big the vet player's contract is in 2021. Unless CP3 opted out of his 3rd year to extend with Miami at a much smaller number in 2021, he'd have to be moved to create enough space and I'm not so sure that'll be possible to do.
Based on Spotrac
Salaries
Butler 36 mil
Winslow 13 mil
Herro 4 mil
KZ 1.7 mil

Roughly 55 mil

Dead money
Anderson 5.2

Now at 60

Holds
Bam 12.8
Robinson 2.1
Nunn 2.1
Olynyk 18.2

Now at ~95.5 mil

The question is, would you consolidate Justise (13 mil) and Olynyk(18.2) combined 31.2 million into a better player? Say it's love, then 2021 you'd have 6 of your 8-9 man rotation with possibly Nunn, Herro, Butler, Love, Bam, Robinson and a max contract to offer.
So basically (if I'm not missing something)
Herro, Butler, Robinson, Love, Bam with Nunn on the bench.
vs
Justise, Herro, Butler, Olynyk, Bam with Robinson and Nunn on the bench.
Which would rather join up with? I vote for the Love lineup in 2 years, and with Love's contract leveling off and then declining, he may be looked at as an asset that could be moved if Miami wanted to at the time(I'm assuming his numbers look much better with Miami than with Cleveland).

We can't afford to pay Love and a max contract player in 2021, especially because of the China stuff.

[AirP.]

Why ruin 2021 cap space for players that won't make us contenders? We should be going after Aldridge who'd be a great fit for this team.

Ruin the cap for 2021, depends on how you do things and how big the vet player's contract is in 2021. Unless CP3 opted out of his 3rd year to extend with Miami at a much smaller number in 2021, he'd have to be moved to create enough space and I'm not so sure that'll be possible to do.

Spoiler:

Based on Spotrac
Salaries
Butler 36 mil
Winslow 13 mil
Herro 4 mil
KZ 1.7 mil

Roughly 55 mil

Dead money
Anderson 5.2

Now at 60

Holds
Bam 12.8
Robinson 2.1
Nunn 2.1
Olynyk 18.2

Now at ~95.5 mil

The question is, would you consolidate Justise (13 mil) and Olynyk(18.2) combined 31.2 million into a better player? Say it's love, then 2021 you'd have 6 of your 8-9 man rotation with possibly Nunn, Herro, Butler, Love, Bam, Robinson and a max contract to offer.
So basically (if I'm not missing something)
Herro, Butler, Robinson, Love, Bam with Nunn on the bench.
vs
Justise, Herro, Butler, Olynyk, Bam with Robinson and Nunn on the bench.
Which would rather join up with? I vote for the Love lineup in 2 years, and with Love's contract leveling off and then declining, he may be looked at as an asset that could be moved if Miami wanted to at the time(I'm assuming his numbers look much better with Miami than with Cleveland).

We can't afford to pay Love and a max contract player in 2021, especially because of the China stuff.

So the plan is Nunn, Herro, Butler, Justice, Bam, Robinson and KZ with max space to get a top tier guy in Miami? Good luck, if Butler were a few years younger sure but that's not the case. Once 2021 comes around Nunn, Herro, Bam and Robinson are going to get paid way more then now after this top tier max guy signs and if Butler leaves after 3 years or even in 4, there's little to no wiggle room to add another big contract to that roster without trades. I absolutely hate wasting years for cap space without have a nearly guarantee you're getting a top tier player. You have a much better window now adding another big player with Butler then the smaller window of someone who isn't on the team plus a declining Butler(who should age well bball wise).

Once again, I get it worked before in Miami, but that was based on friends wanting to play together, I doubt that will be the case in 2021. Chicago does this nearly every 5-7 years(poor fans), New York did it recently(tough to be a Knicks fan), the Clippers were successful with theirs but Leonard and George both had mentioned wanting to play in LA. There's no real indicators other than B.Beal that a better player in the league has Miami as it's #1 option that I'm aware of.

Looking for the projected cap I found this which is before the China issues, ew...

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[Beenie]

He ain’t coming anytime soon. Time to move on I think.

McCollum, though not as good as Beal, would be an exceptional plan B option for Mia.

Should Portland fail to stabilize their tailspin, he could conceivably be made available and wouldn't cost as much as Beal would - meaning, Mia could probably keep Herro and Bam and still get him.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Ruin the cap for 2021, depends on how you do things and how big the vet player's contract is in 2021. Unless CP3 opted out of his 3rd year to extend with Miami at a much smaller number in 2021, he'd have to be moved to create enough space and I'm not so sure that'll be possible to do.

Spoiler:

Based on Spotrac
Salaries
Butler 36 mil
Winslow 13 mil
Herro 4 mil
KZ 1.7 mil

Roughly 55 mil

Dead money
Anderson 5.2

Now at 60

Holds
Bam 12.8
Robinson 2.1
Nunn 2.1
Olynyk 18.2

Now at ~95.5 mil

The question is, would you consolidate Justise (13 mil) and Olynyk(18.2) combined 31.2 million into a better player? Say it's love, then 2021 you'd have 6 of your 8-9 man rotation with possibly Nunn, Herro, Butler, Love, Bam, Robinson and a max contract to offer.
So basically (if I'm not missing something)
Herro, Butler, Robinson, Love, Bam with Nunn on the bench.
vs
Justise, Herro, Butler, Olynyk, Bam with Robinson and Nunn on the bench.
Which would rather join up with? I vote for the Love lineup in 2 years, and with Love's contract leveling off and then declining, he may be looked at as an asset that could be moved if Miami wanted to at the time(I'm assuming his numbers look much better with Miami than with Cleveland).

We can't afford to pay Love and a max contract player in 2021, especially because of the China stuff.

So the plan is Nunn, Herro, Butler, Justice, Bam, Robinson and KZ with max space to get a top tier guy in Miami? Good luck, if Butler were a few years younger sure but that's not the case. Once 2021 comes around Nunn, Herro, Bam and Robinson are going to get paid way more then now after this top tier max guy signs and if Butler leaves after 3 years or even in 4, there's little to no wiggle room to add another big contract to that roster without trades. I absolutely hate wasting years for cap space without have a nearly guarantee you're getting a top tier player. You have a much better window now adding another big player with Butler then the smaller window of someone who isn't on the team plus a declining Butler(who should age well bball wise).

Once again, I get it worked before in Miami, but that was based on friends wanting to play together, I doubt that will be the case in 2021. Chicago does this nearly every 5-7 years(poor fans), New York did it recently(tough to be a Knicks fan), the Clippers were successful with theirs but Leonard and George both had mentioned wanting to play in LA. There's no real indicators other than B.Beal that a better player in the league has Miami as it's #1 option that I'm aware of.

Nunn can get signed over the cap and Bam is still under contract till 2022. If the team looks great next season the odds of getting a top 15 player should be high. What will trading for Kevin Love do for our ceiling?

[Feel_the_Heat15]

He ain’t coming anytime soon. Time to move on I think.

McCollum, though not as good as Beal, would be an exceptional plan B option for Mia.

Should Portland fail to stabilize their tailspin, he could conceivably be made available and wouldn't cost as much as Beal would - meaning, Mia could probably keep Herro and Bam and still get him.

McCollum is just a scorer. He's not efficient and doesn't play defense.