ImageImageImage

Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It?

Moderators: KingDavid, QUIZ, MettaWorldPanda, Wiltside, IggieCC, BFRESH44, heat4life

User avatar
Beenie
Head Coach
Posts: 6,059
And1: 10,007
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
 

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1361 » by Beenie » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:01 pm

Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
Beenie wrote:
Wiltside wrote:He ain’t coming anytime soon. Time to move on I think.


McCollum, though not as good as Beal, would be an exceptional plan B option for Mia.

Should Portland fail to stabilize their tailspin, he could conceivably be made available and wouldn't cost as much as Beal would - meaning, Mia could probably keep Herro and Bam and still get him.


McCollum is just a scorer. He's not efficient and doesn't play defense.


CJ is averaging 3.8 assists this season and I'd reckon an increase if he were in Mia's system.
Feel_the_Heat15
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,238
And1: 3,457
Joined: Jun 22, 2015
       

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1362 » by Feel_the_Heat15 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:12 pm

Beenie wrote:
Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
Beenie wrote:
McCollum, though not as good as Beal, would be an exceptional plan B option for Mia.

Should Portland fail to stabilize their tailspin, he could conceivably be made available and wouldn't cost as much as Beal would - meaning, Mia could probably keep Herro and Bam and still get him.


McCollum is just a scorer. He's not efficient and doesn't play defense.


CJ is averaging 3.8 assists this season and I'd reckon an increase if he were in Mia's system.


Does he make us better offensively? I don't think so and he makes us worse defensively. We need a 3rd true star that'll make us a formidable team. Paul George, Gobert, AD, Giannis, etc. would do that for us.
MadD23
Pro Prospect
Posts: 914
And1: 1,555
Joined: Jul 14, 2019
     

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1363 » by MadD23 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:47 pm

AirP. wrote:
caliban wrote:Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Spoiler:
Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%


.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.


Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.


You're also talking about 2 completely different teams and 2 different roles on the team, Olynyk is a roleplayer who plays in more favorable matchups while K.Love is a main player who plays against starting caliber players much more then Olynyk. I get their stretch bigs but they really aren't performing the same role for each of their teams.

Olynyk / Love
23 / 30 - Minutes per game
66% / 57% - The % of FGA when open or wide open
35% / 34% - the % of hitting 3s when just "open"

https://stats.nba.com/player/203482/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/201567/shots-dash/

Also, when you compare their seasons this year for PER36 for what their rate of stats are.
Love 18.6 pts, 12.5 rebs, 3.1 asts
Olynyk 13.9 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.1 asts

Love and Olynyk's stats this season.

On their ORTG-DRTG Olynyk is way ahead, but once again, one is a main cog on a bad team the other a roleplayer on a good team.
Olynyk +9
Love -3
Looking at the Cavs starters...oof. This ORGT and DRGT does try to extract how a player is effecting the game but it does also calculate what the team on the court with the player is doing and his teammates are horrible by the numbers.
Sexton -15
Osman -12
Garland -30
Thompson +1
Nance +7
Clarkson -6

Kevin Love in this offense next to Bam would be a great addition that would help solidify the starting rotation, his passing in the half court offense would be a plus, his ability to be a main option would allow Butler some more rest, and his rebounding and outlet passing would help get some easy fast break points nearly every game. I get not the perfect fit but with how he has to work on his body to stay in shape(once he committed to that), he seems like a guy who'd fit in with the Heat culture which is an important part of acquiring a high priced player for Miami.



Good thing you responded. It was a clever post but the comparisons were leaving out points per game, Rebs per game, etc and other details you just brought to light. He compared apples to oranges. Suggesting KO is better than Love is ludicrous. We are trying to find a player that is not a pipe dream who can help us get over the hump now, not when Butler grows white hairs and is on a wheel chair.
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,698
And1: 3,381
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1364 » by caliban » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:47 pm

Spoiler:
AirP. wrote:...


Good reply. Feel like you deserve some effort put into a response but I got two small kids running around here after a long day and I'm done for. Will try to get around to it tomorrow.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,698
And1: 3,381
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1365 » by caliban » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:53 pm

HeatFanLifer wrote:
Spoiler:
caliban wrote:Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%


.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.


KO’s contract is a player option for next season. It looks like he is going to decline the option and become a FA.


At least I'd say it's more likely than what most presume.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,698
And1: 3,381
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1366 » by caliban » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:56 pm

DayofMourning wrote:
Spoiler:
caliban wrote:Player A, 13M with two seasons left on the deal.

Player B, 30M over the next four seasons.

Both player are theoretical floorspacing 4.5s next to Big Bam.

Player A - Player B

Sample Min 2019/20

538 - 547

Age

28 > 31

FG%


.464 > .440

3P%

.427 > .372

3Par

.589 > .525

TS%

.625 > .611

Rim convertion (Career for sample)

.705 > .595

BPM

1.6 > .6

RAPM (3year for enough sample)

3.17 > 1.83

WS/48

.135 > .097

Non of them can play defense against a playoff opponent but Player A is more mobile (which is saying a lot)

If this exercise is extended to the last two seasons for all categories the result is even more lopsided. Player B has been bad to average for at least 500 days by now but is a name. Some fans Love names.

Player A is not only the more productive and impactful basketball player. But is also 3 years younger, makes 17M less per season and expires at the perfect time to prevent the opportunity cost of missing out on a possible whale in summer21.

Player A is on the Heat roster right now. Player B is K. Love.


This is just one of the reasons why youre the best poster on this board.


That is nice of you to say sir, but with quality posters like goodboy and Iggie around I'm afraid it's too nice. :lol: Unfortunately I can't post much either for long periods.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
Beenie
Head Coach
Posts: 6,059
And1: 10,007
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
 

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1367 » by Beenie » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:01 pm

Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
Beenie wrote:
Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
McCollum is just a scorer. He's not efficient and doesn't play defense.


CJ is averaging 3.8 assists this season and I'd reckon an increase if he were in Mia's system.


Does he make us better offensively? I don't think so and he makes us worse defensively. We need a 3rd true star that'll make us a formidable team. Paul George, Gobert, AD, Giannis, etc. would do that for us.


CJ would instantly be the best iso scorer on the team, so yes, he would be an immediate offensive impact.

Furthermore, getting CJ wouldn't necessarily take Mia out of the running for courting a max FA in 2021. Although I suspect that some of the names you've mentioned are pipedreams at best, so long as Winslow's contract is traded or declined and other contracts aren't added or extended, Mia would remain positioned to vie for a max player.
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1368 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:24 pm

Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:Nunn can get signed over the cap and Bam is still under contract till 2022. If the team looks great next season the odds of getting a top 15 player should be high. What will trading for Kevin Love do for our ceiling?

Kevin Love will raise the ceiling, how much will depend on the price for him. I feel a Jimmy Butler team with great defense and a decent offense has a chance to go very deep into the playoffs. If you look back to the 76ers last year, it was defense and Butler on a team with bad synergy that was almost able to get past the eventual champs last year. I've always wanted to see how far a team built with solid 2 way players and Butler could go, last year in Philly and this year in Miami are the closest teams to doing that and both teams seem to win a lot of games. Even in Minnesota before he worked on forcing himself out the Timberwolves were one of the top teams in the West when Butler played.
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1369 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:27 pm

caliban wrote:
Spoiler:
AirP. wrote:...


Good reply. Feel like you deserve some effort put into a response but I got two small kids running around here after a long day and I'm done for. Will try to get around to it tomorrow.

No problem, getting the stats to build a reply with takes a while.
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1370 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:39 pm

MadD23 wrote:Good thing you responded. It was a clever post but the comparisons were leaving out points per game, Rebs per game, etc and other details you just brought to light. He compared apples to oranges. Suggesting KO is better than Love is ludicrous. We are trying to find a player that is not a pipe dream who can help us get over the hump now, not when Butler grows white hairs and is on a wheel chair.

Olynyk isn't better then Love but the real question is what % of K.Love's impact are you getting from a younger and cheaper Olynyk and do you have enough overall talent where that drop off is good enough.

I basically see the Heat's roster like this, Butler and Bam are basically major factors every night. Dragic can be a major factor most games he plays in, then comes Herro, Nunn, Winslow, Robinson, Olynyk, Dragic and Silva who can be factors but at aren't consistent at all in what they give the Heat. Personally I'd like to see a 3rd major factor every night added to the team to give this team way more stability and let Spo have a better idea of how to shape this rotation, there's way too many redundant pieces which means lost value when enough people are healthy. There is value with depth but not at the cost of the top level talent on the roster.
MadD23
Pro Prospect
Posts: 914
And1: 1,555
Joined: Jul 14, 2019
     

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1371 » by MadD23 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:55 pm

AirP. wrote:
MadD23 wrote:Good thing you responded. It was a clever post but the comparisons were leaving out points per game, Rebs per game, etc and other details you just brought to light. He compared apples to oranges. Suggesting KO is better than Love is ludicrous. We are trying to find a player that is not a pipe dream who can help us get over the hump now, not when Butler grows white hairs and is on a wheel chair.

Olynyk isn't better then Love but the real question is what % of K.Love's impact are you getting from a younger and cheaper Olynyk and do you have enough overall talent where that drop off is good enough.

I basically see the Heat's roster like this, Butler and Bam are basically major factors every night. Dragic can be a major factor most games he plays in, then comes Herro, Nunn, Winslow, Robinson, Olynyk, Dragic and Silva who can be factors but at aren't consistent at all in what they give the Heat. Personally I'd like to see a 3rd major factor every night added to the team to give this team way more stability and let Spo have a better idea of how to shape this rotation, there's way too many redundant pieces which means lost value when enough people are healthy. There is value with depth but not at the cost of the top level talent on the roster.



Aside from missing a second or third consistent difference maker, unlike Jimmy, most of our players have very little or no playoffs experience at all. If we don't make a move, we could be realistically out in the first round. If we bring in one more key piece and manage to make it to the conference finals, that experience would be extremely valuable for our young players and next season we could be a serious contender with real Championship aspirations.
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 28,001
And1: 28,347
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1372 » by twix2500 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=20

Do not see Memphis taking on Waiters
wadenation305
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,802
And1: 3,056
Joined: Jun 20, 2018
   

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1373 » by wadenation305 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:10 pm

I for one think we're pretty set 1-3 and 5 what really screams out at me is the 4 spot. If we trade for a big name I'd def look at that 4 spot, but I don't think Kevin Love is the answer either. Yea he can stroke it but he can't move or play defense and kinda screams the opposite of what heat culture is about, I don't think he fits with this group. We don't even need a star just a work horse than can rebound and be deadly from 3 with some semblance of mobility, I wish Bosh was still around he'd be perfect next to Bam and Butler, And when does myles turner become a free agent again? lol
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1374 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:12 pm

twix2500 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=20

Do not see Memphis taking on Waiters

I don't see how that makes Miami better. If you need a defender Miami already have Winslow.
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1375 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:13 pm

wadenation305 wrote:I for one think we're pretty set 1-3 and 5 what really screams out at me is the 4 spot. If we trade for a big name I'd def look at that 4 spot, but I don't think Kevin Love is the answer either. Yea he can stroke it but he can't move or play defense and kinda screams the opposite of what heat culture is about, I don't think he fits with this group. We don't even need a star just a work horse than can rebound and be deadly from 3 with some semblance of mobility, I wish Bosh was still around he'd be perfect next to Bam and Butler, And when does myles turner become a free agent again? lol

The horrible Locked On Heat podcast mentioned Turner might be moved, not sure if it was something he heard or just expected. The guy said the Bulls were trying to be good when they added Wade in Chicago, they were overpaying to meet the minimum cap and to bring a hometown guy to keep people showing up after trading Rose. Chicago was on a 2 year plan to have max cap room for 2 players in 2018... which is the 4th time the Bulls FO dumped players/salaries to have max cap room and end up with... Boozer or from way back... Ron Mercer.
wadenation305
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,802
And1: 3,056
Joined: Jun 20, 2018
   

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1376 » by wadenation305 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:15 pm

Beenie wrote:
Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
Beenie wrote:
CJ is averaging 3.8 assists this season and I'd reckon an increase if he were in Mia's system.


Does he make us better offensively? I don't think so and he makes us worse defensively. We need a 3rd true star that'll make us a formidable team. Paul George, Gobert, AD, Giannis, etc. would do that for us.


CJ would instantly be the best iso scorer on the team, so yes, he would be an immediate offensive impact.

Furthermore, getting CJ wouldn't necessarily take Mia out of the running for courting a max FA in 2021. Although I suspect that some of the names you've mentioned are pipedreams at best, so long as Winslow's contract is traded or declined and other contracts aren't added or extended, Mia would remain positioned to vie for a max player.



Don't get me wrong I'd love me some Cj on this team but not at the cost of what we would have to give to acquire him, and not only that, but I believe we already posses the better version on Cj in Herro, 2 and 3 Herro Season is gonna be an interesting one. The 4 spot to me should be our biggest conern, that's the positional weakness we have rn.
wadenation305
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,802
And1: 3,056
Joined: Jun 20, 2018
   

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1377 » by wadenation305 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:17 pm

AirP. wrote:
wadenation305 wrote:I for one think we're pretty set 1-3 and 5 what really screams out at me is the 4 spot. If we trade for a big name I'd def look at that 4 spot, but I don't think Kevin Love is the answer either. Yea he can stroke it but he can't move or play defense and kinda screams the opposite of what heat culture is about, I don't think he fits with this group. We don't even need a star just a work horse than can rebound and be deadly from 3 with some semblance of mobility, I wish Bosh was still around he'd be perfect next to Bam and Butler, And when does myles turner become a free agent again? lol

The horrible Locked On Heat podcast mentioned Turner might be moved, not sure if it was something he heard or just expected.



Didn't catch it, his name kinda just popped in my head, someone we can use as a 4 is mobile and can shoot and fits the Bam/Herro/WInslow/Nunn window age wise.
AirP.
RealGM
Posts: 37,620
And1: 32,279
Joined: Nov 21, 2007

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1378 » by AirP. » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:20 pm

wadenation305 wrote:
AirP. wrote:
wadenation305 wrote:I for one think we're pretty set 1-3 and 5 what really screams out at me is the 4 spot. If we trade for a big name I'd def look at that 4 spot, but I don't think Kevin Love is the answer either. Yea he can stroke it but he can't move or play defense and kinda screams the opposite of what heat culture is about, I don't think he fits with this group. We don't even need a star just a work horse than can rebound and be deadly from 3 with some semblance of mobility, I wish Bosh was still around he'd be perfect next to Bam and Butler, And when does myles turner become a free agent again? lol

The horrible Locked On Heat podcast mentioned Turner might be moved, not sure if it was something he heard or just expected.



Didn't catch it, his name kinda just popped in my head, someone we can use as a 4 is mobile and can shoot and fits the Bam/Herro/WInslow/Nunn window age wise.

He's a center that can hit 3pt shots but not a good threat from 3. With him only making 18 mil a year for 4 years, he'd be a nice addition next to Bam and even better, you can have a rim protector on the court nearly all game long.
wadenation305
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,802
And1: 3,056
Joined: Jun 20, 2018
   

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1379 » by wadenation305 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:27 pm

AirP. wrote:
wadenation305 wrote:
AirP. wrote:The horrible Locked On Heat podcast mentioned Turner might be moved, not sure if it was something he heard or just expected.



Didn't catch it, his name kinda just popped in my head, someone we can use as a 4 is mobile and can shoot and fits the Bam/Herro/WInslow/Nunn window age wise.

He's a center that can hit 3pt shots but not a good threat from 3. With him only making 18 mil a year for 4 years, he'd be a nice addition next to Bam and even better, you can have a rim protector on the court nearly all game long.



That can def work, use em like we use Lenord to stroke the 3 from time to time, And keep up down low on defense, Imagine our already beast defense with turner in the mix, it's scary
User avatar
Beenie
Head Coach
Posts: 6,059
And1: 10,007
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
 

Re: Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It? 

Post#1380 » by Beenie » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:40 pm

wadenation305 wrote:
Beenie wrote:
Feel_the_Heat15 wrote:
Does he make us better offensively? I don't think so and he makes us worse defensively. We need a 3rd true star that'll make us a formidable team. Paul George, Gobert, AD, Giannis, etc. would do that for us.


CJ would instantly be the best iso scorer on the team, so yes, he would be an immediate offensive impact.

Furthermore, getting CJ wouldn't necessarily take Mia out of the running for courting a max FA in 2021. Although I suspect that some of the names you've mentioned are pipedreams at best, so long as Winslow's contract is traded or declined and other contracts aren't added or extended, Mia would remain positioned to vie for a max player.



Don't get me wrong I'd love me some Cj on this team but not at the cost of what we would have to give to acquire him, and not only that, but I believe we already posses the better version on Cj in Herro, 2 and 3 Herro Season is gonna be an interesting one. The 4 spot to me should be our biggest conern, that's the positional weakness we have rn.


Herro and CJ can coexist the same way that Winslow, Duncan, Dragic, and Nunn are coexisting with Herro now - only CJ is better than all of them. I don't see Dragic here long term and I'm not convinced that Winslow will be either.

Return to Miami Heat