Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[payitforward]

Any talk about Ben Simmons for Beal is a non-starter. Simmons' impact is super overrated given the fact that he projects as a bottom 20% shooter for his entire career. To pay Ben Simmons max money would so severely limit our ability to build a team that I find myself shocked every time people bring it up. Career 58% from the ft line. One made 3 his entire career. I'll take my chances with Beal, or trading Beal for young players. But to build a team around Simmons' just sounds silly to me. Simmons' presence so severely limits you in terms of how you construct your team that I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.

Now, if we could get Simmons' coming off of a disastrous playoff where he gets humbled and is willing to really fix his shooting, I'd consider it. But even then, I'd want Simmmons' and Beal. At the end of the day, there's only so much of a positive impact a player can have when they are an absolutely dreadful shooter. Simmons' is a dreadful shooter. He has shown no signs of improving. And, far from it, he gets angry at people who declare it a weakness. This is not a guy you want leading your team.

We trade Beal for Simmons' and we should prepare to be a perennial lottery team. If Simmons' were on this team he would have already mailed it in. Trading Beal for Simmons smh.

Right -- you can see what a terrible team Philly is, & there's your proof. Whereas if you build around John & Brad you have a chance to attain to the dizzying height of 49 wins.

Truth -- Ben Simmons is not a conventional basketball player.
Second Truth -- Ben Simmons is one of the most productive players in the game.

To put it graphically, Simmons was better as a rookie -- much better! -- than John Wall was in his best season of 2016-17. All you have to do is look at the numbers. Nor is that a criticism of John: not at all, he's a tremendous player.

First thing to do is get rid of this BS way of analyzing where you pick a stat that's bad & never bother to move on. Overall, as a scorer, rookie Ben Simmons had a higher TS% than John has ever had in any season of his decade+ career.

That year, John used 28.75 possessions to get his team 30.6 points. Then he regained 2.8 of those possessions for his team via the net of his rebounds, steals & turnovers. Net = 25.95 possessions gain 30.6 points

Rookie Ben used 20.5 possessions to get his team 22.5 points. Then he regained 9.2 of those possessions for his team via the net of his rebounds, steals & turnovers. Net = 11.3 possessions gain 22.5 points.

That leaves Ben/Philly down 8.1 points but with 14.65 extra chances to score. That year, Philly posted a team TS% of .567, meaning that on 14.65 possessions of the ball (minus, say, 2.15 to account for turnovers) they scored 14.2 points.

Let's see... 22.5 + 14.2 = 36.7 -- that's an extra 6.1 points delivered by Ben's play over John's. I guess it's no surprise that Philly won 52 games that year, huh? Even tho Embiid played only 1900 minutes.

Once again, that was Ben Simmon as a 20-year old rookie. He was even better last year.

[nzahir]

Poor deal for you guys I think. You have to take on Batum's deal??

LAL fan here. I have watched some bertans and tape this year on him and have always thought he was good with SA, could you guys see him being a 3rd scoring option on a contender, or not that good?

My worry with Bertans is 2 things come playoff time:
1) Quicker or craftier guards will iso him once he is switched onto them. Can he keep up with them? If you are a defensive liability in the playoffs, good teams will really expose it
2) His offense does seem mostly 1 dimensional. While he is an unbelievable shooter, smart defensive teams will not let him get so open as easily as most of these garbage regular season teams or teams that aren't scouting and planning like they do come playoff time.

Bertans has his limitations but he is better in non shooting components of the game than I thought. When teams close him hard, he’s adept at getting to and finishing at the rim. He works really hard on defense... on a good team, with a good scheme and surrounded by a couple of plus defenders, he’d be fine.

And his shooting. Oh his shooting. It’s like strawberries on a summer evening.

Agreed... Im sure the same could be said about Korver, but he was so quick with his release and coming off screens that he was unstoppable... Or you jeopardize your defense in other areas to stop him

But look what happened to korver in both nba finals. I think he shot like under 10% from 3 last time. Smart teams don’t let u get great looks consistently

Lal can use him, just not sure if he’s worth moving Kuzma for

[payitforward]

Korver's team was in the finals -- if you can't get there, it doesn't matter whether your guy would have been likely to be good.

Kuzma? He was bad as a rookie, worse last year, & worse again this year.

On his career, he's below average in 2pt.%. Below average 3pt %. Below average FT%. Below average TS% (obviously). Gets 20% fewer defensive boards than average & 58% fewer offensive boards than average. Below average in assists, blocks & steals. Turns the ball over more than average.

Please explain: what is there to like?

[Silvie Lysandra]

Just idly thinking, what could we get for a package centered around Brown/Bryant/Mahimmi + 2021 pick? Mostly because of the following assumptions/thoughts.

- I think Rui is a SF who can play spot PF minutes, more than a PF. We should/will resign Bertrans, and he's probably more of a SF as well. That means Troy Brown becomes expendable, especially since Bonga is a very similar prospect.

- I like Bryant, but I feel like with Beal and Rui we'll have enough scoring, and unless Wall comes back and goes back to playing elite level defense, that's not going to be a team strength. And imo he's not good enough as a rim protector or rebounder, though that could certainly change.

- We actually don't have a clear cut target for our FRP with our team as currently constructed. Brown is at worst an average SF with room to grow, Rui and Bertrans would have PF mins locked down, Wagner and Bryant have C locked down.

So with that in mind, would it be possible to get either an above average starter at C that brings rim protection and glass control with that package? Either that, or an quality starter at SF/PF that brings high end defense?

I've heard some rumblings about Gobert being available, and while this might not be enough to get him (needs Rui or the FRP if not both) that's the kind of player I'd go after. Andre Drummond could definitely be had with that package but is Drummond going to be a high quality defender and know his role? I think he could be very efficient as a low volume scorer in a 3 out 2 in setup or a 4-1 setup when Wall sits. But I'm not sure.

[payitforward]

Gobert? What an idea! What do you think his next contract will be likely to cost? Just a rough estimate please...? How about Beal's? You ready to give $140m to 3 players? Having given away most of our young assets.

In general, if we gave Brown, Bryant & a 2021 R1 pick for an "an above average starter at C... or a quality starter at SF/PF..." we might not be a good team again for a decade.

In 2014-15 we had a good starting C. We had John Wall in his 5th year in the league. We had Brad in his 4th year. We had Paul Pierce. We had Rasual Butler playing the first 3d of the season at an all-star level. We won 46 games.

In 2016-17, we had John Wall at the very peak of his play so far. We had Brad playing extremely well -- reasonably close to what he does these days. We had a good starting Center. We had Otto Porter in his brief episode as one of the best young players in the game. All that stuff was good enough to push us to win 49 games. Not 50. Not 55. In the East. Not the West.

That was our tippy top. Our absolute peak. The next year we weren't as good. The year after that we were worse yet. & this year we are even worse. Most likely we'll win twenty-something games. Maybe we'll hit 30.

& what do we have coming in our future. Well, Wall is coming off a significant injury & will enter his 11th season in the league next year. We have Beal. We have a good journeyman, Davis Bertans (not Bertrans, btw) who is expiring. It's by no means a certainty that he'll be back next year. & you seem to have Rui written in as a starting Forward & 2d scorer? After 600 rookie minutes in which he has by no means done anything particularly special? Better yet, you have him as a 3!! Sorry he's not a wing -- of any kind. Oh, & you've got Wagner having "locked down" a position? You've got Bonga as "similar" to Troy Brown? You can say what Troy Brown "is" at 20 years of age?

Based on this arsenal, you want to give Bryant, Brown & a R1 pick? To achieve what...?

The Washington Wizards are a rebuilding team. The Wall/Beal centered team is in the past. It peaked years ago. Moreover, we can't return to the glory of that team, because there was no glory. Over that team's 4 best years in a row it averaged under 45 wins.

In any case, it ain't happening. Tommy has already said, "We are going to build this thing the right way, patiently." So... time for us to be patient, right?

[rl25g]

Would Miles Turner be a realistic option ?

[nate33]

Just idly thinking, what could we get for a package centered around Brown/Bryant/Mahimmi + 2021 pick? Mostly because of the following assumptions/thoughts.

- I think Rui is a SF who can play spot PF minutes, more than a PF. We should/will resign Bertrans, and he's probably more of a SF as well. That means Troy Brown becomes expendable, especially since Bonga is a very similar prospect.

- I like Bryant, but I feel like with Beal and Rui we'll have enough scoring, and unless Wall comes back and goes back to playing elite level defense, that's not going to be a team strength. And imo he's not good enough as a rim protector or rebounder, though that could certainly change.

- We actually don't have a clear cut target for our FRP with our team as currently constructed. Brown is at worst an average SF with room to grow, Rui and Bertrans would have PF mins locked down, Wagner and Bryant have C locked down.

So with that in mind, would it be possible to get either an above average starter at C that brings rim protection and glass control with that package? Either that, or an quality starter at SF/PF that brings high end defense?

I've heard some rumblings about Gobert being available, and while this might not be enough to get him (needs Rui or the FRP if not both) that's the kind of player I'd go after. Andre Drummond could definitely be had with that package but is Drummond going to be a high quality defender and know his role? I think he could be very efficient as a low volume scorer in a 3 out 2 in setup or a 4-1 setup when Wall sits. But I'm not sure.

I agree with PIF. This team isn't good enough to push all their picks/prospects on the table to get one more star. The inevitable result would be a 40-49 win treadmill team that is capped out and facing luxtax penalties without any real hope for a championship.

Barring a massive improvement from Hachimura or Brown, or a ROY-caliber draft this summer, this team's window of opportunity for contention is still 3 or more years down the road. All transactions should be made with the goal of having the team's players at or near their career peaks in the 2023-2025 time frame.

With that in mind, it would be foolish to trade any of our sub-22 year olds or draft picks unless it's a swap for some other sub-22 year olds or draft picks at a position of greater need. Beal and Bertans are just young enough to be part of the team's core in 2023-2025, or maybe not, it depends on the offers available. And frankly, Wall should be moved at the soonest opportunity.

[tontoz]

We are stuck with Wall. Nobody is going to deal for him unless they also have a horrible contract to trade. After this season he has 3 yrs $133 million left on his deal.

We just have to fit pieces around Wall/Beal to win over the next few years.

[nate33]

We are stuck with Wall. Nobody is going to deal for him unless they also have a horrible contract to trade. After this season he has 3 yrs $133 million left on his deal.

We just have to fit pieces around Wall/Beal to win over the next few years.

He certainly isn't movable at the moment. I said "soonest opportunity", which might be 2 years from now when he has just 1.5 years left on his contract. Maybe a team that strikes out in 2021 free agency will be willing to throw their surplus cash at Wall, for example.

[gambitx777]

We are stuck with Wall. Nobody is going to deal for him unless they also have a horrible contract to trade. After this season he has 3 yrs $133 million left on his deal.

We just have to fit pieces around Wall/Beal to win over the next few years.

He certainly isn't movable at the moment. I said "soonest opportunity", which might be 2 years from now when he has just 1.5 years left on his contract. Maybe a team that strikes out in 2021 free agency will be willing to throw their surplus cash at Wall, for example.

I'm still not sold that it will take that long. A team cap strapped with filler contacts might take a flyer on him for cheap before his value rises above an even cap dump. Reports say Pat loves him and I could see the heat doing that maybe. Doubt NYC would do it at this point. But I could see it happening. There are some teams out there that could.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

We are stuck with Wall. Nobody is going to deal for him unless they also have a horrible contract to trade. After this season he has 3 yrs $133 million left on his deal.

We just have to fit pieces around Wall/Beal to win over the next few years.

Yes, that's clear-eyed. If you want to trade a problem, you are not going to get a solution in return.

But, obviously, nate is also correct: if this team is ever going to contend for a title, it'll be some years from now. IOW, after John's current contract ends. So, yes, we have no option but to add players "around" him (& Brad as well).

If John comes back at his peak -- or, even better, he creates a new peak for himself -- that's great. But, even in that case we aren't a contender. Not even in the East. We are still hampered by the horrible moves Ernie made over the last decade. We aren't good enough, deep enough, or financially flexible enough.

...I suppose we could fantasize/dream that every single move we made this off season & every one we make in the next year all turn out to be great -- Rui becomes a young star in the making, Brown an outstanding starter, Bertans keeps playing at his current level but re-signs with us at a reasonably price anyway, Bryant grows from his outstanding last season to become even more outstanding, Wagner becomes a really solid 3d big, Bonga develops a shot, Mathews becomes a 6th-man scorer, Justin Robinson develops quickly & becomes a solid backup point, &... have I missed anything?

Oh yeah... we get the #1 pick next year & get us a potential superstar.

Wake me up, someone...!

[Silvie Lysandra]

I agree with PIF. This team isn't good enough to push all their picks/prospects on the table to get one more star. The inevitable result would be a 40-49 win treadmill team that is capped out and facing luxtax penalties without any real hope for a championship.

Barring a massive improvement from Hachimura or Brown, or a ROY-caliber draft this summer, this team's window of opportunity for contention is still 3 or more years down the road. All transactions should be made with the goal of having the team's players at or near their career peaks in the 2023-2025 time frame.

With that in mind, it would be foolish to trade any of our sub-22 year olds or draft picks unless it's a swap for some other sub-22 year olds or draft picks at a position of greater need. Beal and Bertans are just young enough to be part of the team's core in 2023-2025, or maybe not, it depends on the offers available. And frankly, Wall should be moved at the soonest opportunity.

Alright while I see the logic of your statement, let me defend my initial premises.

- The organization has made clear that this season is a one year retool, not a long term rebuild. The goal is to get the young players burn, add another top 10 (potentially top 5) draft pick, hopefully get Wall back as an above average starter, and return to playoff contention.

- The team is actually artificially bad standings wise, simply because of Isiah Thomas. The Wizards are a historically bad defensive team when he plays, and an average one when he sits. Now, Beal isn't a great defender either, and neither is Rui, but it's hard to evaluate them when you're playing so many of your minutes with an apocalyptically bad defender like Thomas. Meanwhile, Thomas is a decent offensive player, but not very difficult to replace, and certainly is a much worse defender than he is an offensive player. With an average starter at PG we're likely a fringe playoff team comparable to the Hornets or Magic.

- Following the above, if Wall comes back as an average starter or better, then we're already a playoff team, barring no other changes. And if he returns to something approximating All-Star level, then this is a 45-50 win team again, again, with no other changes.

- If players like Hachimura and whoever we draft with our first rounder develop properly, and Bertrans continues to be a key backup piece, and Wagner continues to show he's at worst a good rotation big, then suddenly you have too many rotation quality players, but not enough issues. That's a good problem to have, but youth is a depreciating asset if you can't play it.

- This obviously relies on a lot of ifs, but any retooling plan inherently does that. But the problem with treating it like a 3 year rebuilding plan (other than the fact that the organization is very much not doing that and Beal didn't sign up for it) is how do you develop so many prospects while trying to stay competitive and push for the playoffs? What happens when you do need to consolidate your assets, but said assets are depreciating in value because there aren't enough minutes for them? What happens when an asset plans out, but they create issues in team construction (in particular, if Rui and Davis are going to be core team pieces, how do you cover their weaknesses with Thomas Bryant who is more of an offensive center?)

If the right thing to do is a 3 year rebuild, then Beal should be traded immediately.

Also this team doesn't have much hope for a championship, objectively, unless a lot of things go the team's way. But what the Wizards can do is build a team that can make the playoffs for the rest of the 2020s, get top 4 seed and go to the 2nd round most of the time, occasionally get to the ECF, and maybe go to the finals once. That's the best any team that didn't draft a generational superstar can hope for.

[nate33]

Alright while I see the logic of your statement, let me defend my initial premises.

- The organization has made clear that this season is a one year retool, not a long term rebuild. The goal is to get the young players burn, add another top 10 (potentially top 5) draft pick, hopefully get Wall back as an above average starter, and return to playoff contention.

- The team is actually artificially bad standings wise, simply because of Isiah Thomas. The Wizards are a historically bad defensive team when he plays, and an average one when he sits. Now, Beal isn't a great defender either, and neither is Rui, but it's hard to evaluate them when you're playing so many of your minutes with an apocalyptically bad defender like Thomas. Meanwhile, Thomas is a decent offensive player, but not very difficult to replace, and certainly is a much worse defender than he is an offensive player. With an average starter at PG we're likely a fringe playoff team comparable to the Hornets or Magic.

- Following the above, if Wall comes back as an average starter or better, then we're already a playoff team, barring no other changes. And if he returns to something approximating All-Star level, then this is a 45-50 win team again, again, with no other changes.

- If players like Hachimura and whoever we draft with our first rounder develop properly, and Bertrans continues to be a key backup piece, and Wagner continues to show he's at worst a good rotation big, then suddenly you have too many rotation quality players, but not enough issues. That's a good problem to have, but youth is a depreciating asset if you can't play it.

- This obviously relies on a lot of ifs, but any retooling plan inherently does that. But the problem with treating it like a 3 year rebuilding plan (other than the fact that the organization is very much not doing that and Beal didn't sign up for it) is how do you develop so many prospects while trying to stay competitive and push for the playoffs? What happens when you do need to consolidate your assets, but said assets are depreciating in value because there aren't enough minutes for them? What happens when an asset plans out, but they create issues in team construction (in particular, if Rui and Davis are going to be core team pieces, how do you cover their weaknesses with Thomas Bryant who is more of an offensive center?)

If the right thing to do is a 3 year rebuild, then Beal should be traded immediately.

Also this team doesn't have much hope for a championship, objectively, unless a lot of things go the team's way. But what the Wizards can do is build a team that can make the playoffs for the rest of the 2020s, get top 4 seed and go to the 2nd round most of the time, occasionally get to the ECF, and maybe go to the finals once. That's the best any team that didn't draft a generational superstar can hope for.

Your premise seems to be there are only two possible stages for a basketball team: rebuilding or contending. There's a middle step called "learning to win". When I say our window of opportunity is 2023-25, I don't mean we are are 30-win rebuilding team all the way through 2022. I just mean we have no realistic hope of competing for a championship until 2023.

Next season and the season after, we will be in the "learning to win" stage, hopefully winning 40-50 games, making the playoffs, and possibly the 2nd round. But we will be doing so while relying to a significant degree on young talent: Hachimura, Bryant, Brown, Wagner and our 2020 pick. They won't be great players yet, but they'll be developing. Then, in 2023, two or more of those young players will hopefully be above-average starters or stars in their own right. If that pans out, then we will have a championship contender for the next several years because everyone will be in their prime.

Your plan has us attempting to skip the learning to win phase by trading those young guys for one more 2nd tier star with few prime years left. The problem is, the guys and picks you are trading aren't very valuable. At the moment, Brown isn't even a proven starter. Bryant hasn't shown enough defensively to be a reliable starter on a good team. That 2021 pick is likely a non-lotto pick assuming a healthy Wall and Beal.

So for that package, we'd either get back an over-the-hill star like Kevin Love or Lamarcus Aldridge, or we'd be getting back an overpaid star like an Andre Drummond or Gordon Hayward. The over-the-hill guy wouldn't be around long enough to give us a meaningful competitive window. And the overpaid guy would mean we could not build a team around our core 3 because of the luxtax.

[nate33]

- If players like Hachimura and whoever we draft with our first rounder develop properly, and Bertrans continues to be a key backup piece, and Wagner continues to show he's at worst a good rotation big, then suddenly you have too many rotation quality players, but not enough issues. That's a good problem to have, but youth is a depreciating asset if you can't play it.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it.

I'm not opposed to a consolidation trade at some point down the line if it looks like we have positional redundancy or extreme depth. But we are not there yet. A trade like that might make sense some time next year or the year after, but not now. It's better to develop our youth now and try and boost their trade value rather than trade them before they've proven to be anything but mediocre role players.

[Silvie Lysandra]

- If players like Hachimura and whoever we draft with our first rounder develop properly, and Bertrans continues to be a key backup piece, and Wagner continues to show he's at worst a good rotation big, then suddenly you have too many rotation quality players, but not enough issues. That's a good problem to have, but youth is a depreciating asset if you can't play it.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it.

I'm not opposed to a consolidation trade at some point down the line if it looks like we have positional redundancy or extreme depth. But we are not there yet. A trade like that might make sense some time next year or the year after, but not now. It's better to develop our youth now and try and boost their trade value rather than trade them before they've proven to be anything but mediocre role players.

I think it does make more sense next year, but if we're committed to signing Bertrans, that means any such trade would need to be made this year in order to absorb more salary while still being able to resign him. Also again if Rui is our future starter on the wing, then either you teach him to play the 3, hope he becomes a plus rebounder at the 4 (neither of these things are out of the question) or you get a traditional rim protecting and rebounder interior C to cover for his weaknesses.

[payitforward]

Optimism is a great thing, no doubt. But, predicting the future based on a series of optimistic assumptions (tho common with fans! ) isn't likely to tell us much that's real.

[Illmatic12]

IT suggesting he will he bought out/moved by the deadline ?

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[Ruzious]

Optimism is a great thing, no doubt. But, predicting the future based on a series of optimistic assumptions (tho common with fans! ) isn't likely to tell us much that's real.

I predict that I'll be optimistic that I'll be hopeful at some point.

[Ruzious]

IT suggesting he will he bought out/moved by the deadline ?

Read on Twitter

?s=21

We might get a top 60 protected pick for him, but the best thing we get will be a freed up roster spot.

[payitforward]

Optimism is a great thing, no doubt. But, predicting the future based on a series of optimistic assumptions (tho common with fans! ) isn't likely to tell us much that's real.

I predict that I'll be optimistic that I'll be hopeful at some point.

Gonna happen, b/c I dreamed that you would, Ruz.