Optimism!

[payitforward]

We're 24 games into what looks like it'll be a very difficult season. But, right now seems like an especially a difficult moment - at least it feels difficult to me.

We started the season 2-6, culminating in a dispiriting loss at home to the awful Cavs. But, then, after a tough road loss to the Celtics, we went on kind of a run. We were actually 4-3 over the next 7 games.

At that point, our record was 6-10. Not good, of course: but, 9 of our 16 games had been on the road, & we'd actually played teams from the West 10 times in those 16 games. & we were up vs. the league in the 8 games from the Celtics loss to the win in Phoenix. Not bad for a team full of new faces, starting a rookie, & featuring a PG who was just trying to show that he could play again. Beal was playing great, & Mo Wagner went on a shocking run of productive outings.

We were feeling pretty good, I'd say. Whereupon, unfortunately, we ran into a buzzsaw! In our last 8 games, we've gone 1-7, & overall we've been down 77 point to our opponents. Beal's game seemed to be dropping precipitously as well -- don't like to see that! The only high points were some terrific games from Bertans & a couple of nice outings from Rui.

Last night was particularly dispiriting. Beal played really poorly. Bertans could get nothing done. & we got to watch Rui look particularly lost, while Memphis' late R1 pick Clarke was absolutely fantastic.

You can tell how this gang is feeling by how frequently we post, & there's been very little activity since the loss.

I want to say that we have puh-lenty of reason for optimism! We have a very very good bunch of young players who are developing & will continue to develop nicely. Despite the criticism he receives, Troy Brown is having a very good 2d season -- & he's only 20. Rui has been struggling some recently, but he's going to be a player. By the end of the season, it'll be clear once again what a terrific player Thomas Bryant is. Whatever Moritz Wagner is, he is certainly looking a ton better than any of us expected the day before the season began! Bonga isn't putting up much by way of numbers yet, but he has huge gifts to develop going forward. Admiral is surprising the H*ll out of me!

There's going to be no immediate pneumatic rebound to medi(Ernie)ocrity, but there's definite intention & good, hard work being done. It's an adventure, & I think it's great. I'm optimistic.

[payitforward]

How about you?

[DCZards]

We're 24 games into what looks like it'll be a very difficult season. But, right now seems like an especially a difficult moment - at least it feels difficult to me.

We started the season 2-6, culminating in a dispiriting loss at home to the awful Cavs. But, then, after a tough road loss to the Celtics, we went on kind of a run. We were actually 4-3 over the next 7 games.

At that point, our record was 6-10. Not good, of course: but, 9 of our 16 games had been on the road, & we'd actually played teams from the West 10 times in those 16 games. & we were up vs. the league in the 8 games from the Celtics loss to the win in Phoenix. Not bad for a team full of new faces, starting a rookie, & featuring a PG who was just trying to show that he could play again. Beal was playing great, & Mo Wagner went on a shocking run of productive outings.

We were feeling pretty good, I'd say. Whereupon, unfortunately, we ran into a buzzsaw! In our last 8 games, we've gone 1-7, & overall we've been down 77 point to our opponents. Beal's game seemed to be dropping precipitously as well -- don't like to see that! The only high points were some terrific games from Bertans & a couple of nice outings from Rui.

Last night was particularly dispiriting. Beal played really poorly. Bertans could get nothing done. & we got to watch Rui look particularly lost, while Memphis' late R1 pick Clarke was absolutely fantastic.

You can tell how this gang is feeling by how frequently we post, & there's been very little activity since the loss.

I want to say that we have puh-lenty of reason for optimism! We have a very very good bunch of young players who are developing & will continue to develop nicely. Despite the criticism he receives, Troy Brown is having a very good 2d season -- & he's only 20. Rui has been struggling some recently, but he's going to be a player. By the end of the season, it'll be clear once again what a terrific player Thomas Bryant is. Whatever Moritz Wagner is, he is certainly looking a ton better than any of us expected the day before the season began! Bonga isn't putting up much by way of numbers yet, but he has huge gifts to develop going forward. Admiral is surprising the H*ll out of me!

There's going to be no immediate pneumatic rebound to medi(Ernie)ocrity, but there's definite intention & good, hard work being done. It's an adventure, & I think it's great. I'm optimistic.

Hmmm...interesting. The only non-Wizard you bring up in your post summarizing the Zards season thus far is Clarke. I wonder why.

Hopefully, someday we'll move past this perpetual comparison of Rui to Clarke.

[payitforward]

You missed my point, Zards -- or perhaps I just expressed it badly. I was speculating that this was why people were bummed by the loss.

Or... to turn your point around: the only thing you bring up in response to my call for optimism is what you see (I guess; am I wrong?) as criticism of Rui via Clarke. How about my praise of Rui (...going to be a player)? Not to mention the rest of the young crew?

Anyway, main point: I am optimistic about our direction.

[Meliorus]

Troy is showing optimistic strides but I'm starting to just get worried about our ownership and coach. We cannot control who they sign and who gets minutes; their actions typically don't align with the more thoughtful fans. Whether it's due to sunken cost principles or just politics, not everything makes sense.

I was watching Moneyball recently and I remember the coach refusing to play Hatteberg over Pena (this promising rookie) despite the advanced stats favoring Hatteberg. The GM kept complaining and ended up trading the rookie just to force the coach to play who he wanted. I see a lot of the parallels on the horizon and let's not forget Brooks was a guy who kept on playing Perkins with Adams on the bench back in his OKC playoff runs.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The team isn't very good but they're likable and have some solid potential. Realistically, not all of Brown, Rui, Hachimura, Bryant, Wagner, Schofield and Bonga are going to be great players but they all play hard and have solid potential. We already know Beal is really good. Bertans might be one of the best shooters ever. Heck, even Yawn is alright when he's more of a veteran mentor for younger guys than an expensive guy the team intends to rely upon in the quest for the playoffs. Thomas and Smith are both alright. There aren't a lot of reasons to actually dislike anyone on the roster and the team seems to be laying a solid organizational foundation for building an actual winner in the relatively near future. This team is farther from .500 than it's historically been but it's also closer to being a consistent winner at the same time.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I really like Admiral. He may never amount to a rotation worthy player on a playoff team, but he gives you all he's got. Key for him is developing a deadly three ball. In uber small lineups, he can hold his own for stretches against much bigger players. The challenge is, that size disadvantage on the defensive end is only worth it if he can draw bigger defenders outside.

Also, Troy's rebounding yesterday was manly.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I really like Admiral. He may never amount to a rotation worthy player on a playoff team, but he gives you all he's got. Key for him is developing a deadly three ball. In uber small lineups, he can hold his own for stretches against much bigger players. The challenge is, that size disadvantage on the defensive end is only worth it if he can draw bigger defenders outside.

There's another possible path for him that I hadn't considered before the draft. PJ Tucker is an outlier but certainly a possibility. He hits 3s but doesn't exactly rain them or anything and he's not a guy defenses worry about for the most part. The odd, smallball PF/C who has an unusually complete game with no major strengths outside of defense absolutely fits in the modern NBA. No idea if he gets there but I'm cheering for him.

[DCZards]

I really like Admiral. He may never amount to a rotation worthy player on a playoff team, but he gives you all he's got. Key for him is developing a deadly three ball. In uber small lineups, he can hold his own for stretches against much bigger players. The challenge is, that size disadvantage on the defensive end is only worth it if he can draw bigger defenders outside.

There's another possible path for him that I hadn't considered before the draft. PJ Tucker is an outlier but certainly a possibility. He hits 3s but doesn't exactly rain them or anything and he's not a guy defenses worry about for the most part. The odd, smallball PF/C who has an unusually complete game with no major strengths outside of defense absolutely fits in the modern NBA. No idea if he gets there but I'm cheering for him.

PJ also the same guy I thought about as a comparison to Admiral. They are almost the exact same size (6-5, 240-245lbs). Admiral will have to get quicker in order to defend perimeter players in the way that PJ often does. I also think that Admiral has a good chance of becoming a far better 3 pt shooter than PJ.

Like PJ, Admiral looks like one of those physical, rugged guys who will do the dirty work and take on the challenge of defending much taller opponents.

[nate33]

I really like Admiral. He may never amount to a rotation worthy player on a playoff team, but he gives you all he's got. Key for him is developing a deadly three ball. In uber small lineups, he can hold his own for stretches against much bigger players. The challenge is, that size disadvantage on the defensive end is only worth it if he can draw bigger defenders outside.

There's another possible path for him that I hadn't considered before the draft. PJ Tucker is an outlier but certainly a possibility. He hits 3s but doesn't exactly rain them or anything and he's not a guy defenses worry about for the most part. The odd, smallball PF/C who has an unusually complete game with no major strengths outside of defense absolutely fits in the modern NBA. No idea if he gets there but I'm cheering for him.

PJ also the same guy I thought about as a comparison to Admiral. They are almost the exact same size (6-5, 240-245lbs). Admiral will have to get quicker in order to defend perimeter players in the way that PJ often does. I also think that Admiral has a good chance of becoming a far better 3 pt shooter than PJ.

Like PJ, Admiral looks like one of those physical, rugged guys who will do the dirty work and take on the challenge of defending much taller opponents.

One notable difference is that PJ had a reported 7-foot wingspan which allows him to play much taller than he is. Admiral's wingspan is fairly long for his height (6'-9.75) but it's not freakishly long. He also never demonstrated the quick hands and steal-generating ability that Tucker showed in college.

[I_Like_Dirt]

One notable difference is that PJ had a reported 7-foot wingspan which allows him to play much taller than he is. Admiral's wingspan is fairly long for his height (6'-9.75) but it's not freakishly long. He also never demonstrated the quick hands and steal-generating ability that Tucker showed in college.

They're not exact matches. You'll never truly get that with anyone. Tucker hit two 3s total in his entire college career and he didn't hit any as an NBA rookie. He had to go to Europe and return to the NBA at age 27 to figure that part out and even then he only gradually adopted the 3.

It's more about the kind of role Admiral fits into. I'm not sure if he'll be as good as, worse than or better than Tucker. Who knows at this point? He's going to be a smallball PF/C that can score from range. If he doesn't improve at all, he's not going to last in the league, just as Tucker didn't at first. He seems to have a solid attitude and is largely coachable. I don't see a star but I think he has a reasonable chance of being a solid role player - it's just a rather rare kind of role player that people aren't used to. He isn't an SF and trying to make him one won't work.

[nate33]

One notable difference is that PJ had a reported 7-foot wingspan which allows him to play much taller than he is. Admiral's wingspan is fairly long for his height (6'-9.75) but it's not freakishly long. He also never demonstrated the quick hands and steal-generating ability that Tucker showed in college.

They're not exact matches. You'll never truly get that with anyone. Tucker hit two 3s total in his entire college career and he didn't hit any as an NBA rookie. He had to go to Europe and return to the NBA at age 27 to figure that part out and even then he only gradually adopted the 3.

It's more about the kind of role Admiral fits into. I'm not sure if he'll be as good as, worse than or better than Tucker. Who knows at this point? He's going to be a smallball PF/C that can score from range. If he doesn't improve at all, he's not going to last in the league, just as Tucker didn't at first. He seems to have a solid attitude and is largely coachable. I don't see a star but I think he has a reasonable chance of being a solid role player - it's just a rather rare kind of role player that people aren't used to. He isn't an SF and trying to make him one won't work.

I don't disagree. I do think PJ Tucker is probably the prototype that Schofield should strive for. I just don't think it's possible for him to reach Tucker's level of effectiveness defensively, and I certainly don't think he can be effective as a small ball center. He can be a poor man's Tucker, and only at PF.

The other guy with a similar body type but a bit more in the SF mode is Jae Crowder. Schofield and Crowder have very similar physical and statistical profiles:
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jae-crowder--admiral-schofield