MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

RB34 · Post #1921 » by **RB34** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:48 am

Sulico wrote:Ehm..

Lakers Bench:
75 min!!!
2/9 FG -- 0/4 3PT -- 0/1 FT -- 8 REB -- 5 AST -- 2 STL -- 0 BLK -- 10 TO -- 4 PTS

Bucks Bench:
89 min
11/24 FG -- 5/12 3PT -- 7/9 FT -- 9 REB -- 3 AST -- 5 STL -- 2BLK -- 4 TO -- 34 PTS

Lets not act like Giannis won this game. Sure he played great, but bench won this.

Lel this is dumb.

Giannis was clearly the best player on the court. Way better than the Lakers two “MVP” candidates.

Keep thinking it’s because the Lakers didn’t have Ersan ilyasova and Robin Lopez.

MrPerfect1 · Post #1922 » by **MrPerfect1** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:51 am

scrabbarista wrote:As of the morning of December 20th.

PLAYER Total

Harden 12.7
Anteto 12.2
James 10.37
Butler 9.16
Doncic 8.89
Leonar 8.86
Gobert 8.48
Lillard 8.1

*This formula matches the last 8 MVP winners and 10 of the last 11, which is as far back as I've taken it.

*The minimum MVP threshold seems to be about 23.0 (Antetokounmpo and Harden were barely above this last season), and an "average" MVP seems to be about 26.

*2016 Curry was a 31.3 and 2009 James was a 33.4.

*If Harden were to play all 82 games, he is on pace for a 28.2.

*If Antetokounmpo were to play all 81 games, he is on pace for a 27.

*I'm not going to post every week like last season, and I definitely don't intend to engage in conversation within the thread. I'll probably next post either in January or whenever there's another big, relevant night like the one we had last night. Enjoy your bias, everyone! That's what it's there for!

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

DutchManDanFan · Post #1923 » by **DutchManDanFan** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:18 am

MrPerfect1 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:As of the morning of December 20th.

PLAYER Total

Harden 12.7
Anteto 12.2
James 10.37
Butler 9.16
Doncic 8.89
Leonar 8.86
Gobert 8.48
Lillard 8.1

*This formula matches the last 8 MVP winners and 10 of the last 11, which is as far back as I've taken it.

*The minimum MVP threshold seems to be about 23.0 (Antetokounmpo and Harden were barely above this last season), and an "average" MVP seems to be about 26.

*2016 Curry was a 31.3 and 2009 James was a 33.4.

*If Harden were to play all 82 games, he is on pace for a 28.2.

*If Antetokounmpo were to play all 81 games, he is on pace for a 27.

*I'm not going to post every week like last season, and I definitely don't intend to engage in conversation within the thread. I'll probably next post either in January or whenever there's another big, relevant night like the one we had last night. Enjoy your bias, everyone! That's what it's there for!

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

I think this is because some metrics in his formula are related to other players. Without a big gap relative to the other stars, you won’t score so high.

I question any formula that doesn’t have Giannis at no. 1 right now. Ppg and minutes played must have something to do with it. But team wins should be more important. It is for the voters, unless something special (TD for Westbrook) happened.

It’s easy to fix though: Put the amount of wins for every loss in the equation.
Giannis has 6.00 wins for every loss.
Harden has 2.11 wins for every loss.

And you can add (subjective) bonus points for special events, like:
Triple double for the season = 3 points. Double double = 1 point
40+ ppg = 3 points, 35+ = 2 points, 30+ = 1 point.
No 2nd star = 1 point.

scrabbarista · Post #1924 » by **scrabbarista** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:35 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

*The outliers pull up the average. I've gone back to 2001 now, and while the average is still a tick under 26, Harden and Antetokounmpo's current pace would put them 6th out of the last 20 seasons. So, they are playing at an historically elite level (so far). If you're curious, the only winners to finish above their current pace were '04 Garnett, '09 '10 '13 James, and '16 Curry.

MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season

Now that I've gone back, their 2019 seasons aren't at the absolute bottom. There are three first-place finishers who are below 23.0, while Antetokounmpo and Harden were just above 23 last season. 2019 Antetokounmpo is 16th out of the last 19 MVP's. 2020 Antetokounmpo (although he's still trailing Harden atm) is on pace for 6th out of the last 20 - a major leap from last season. He deserved the MVP in 2019, but he didn't have the monster season some have made out. He played the second fewest minutes for an MVP in NBA history and finished 149th on the single-season win shares list. 60 wins also isn't historical. He was very impressive per-minute/possession, of course, but you'd expect that from the MVP who played the least minutes in the last forty-plus seasons.

The MVP is an extremely high standard, and the player who actually deserves the MVP (coughnotSteveNashcoughcoughnotDerrickRosecough) is even higher. Both of these guys are on a very special pace right now.

PS I've already broken my word by responding to you, so I'm going to re-up and say I won't even read your response. No offense. Nothing personal. I don't even recognize you (though, I rarely do, so we may have interacted a ton for all I know). But I posted maybe hundreds of times in the MVP thread last season and read the entire thread all season long, so the odds of you telling me something about the 2019 candidates that I haven't heard or considered is pretty close to zero.

scrabbarista · Post #1925 » by **scrabbarista** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:48 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

See my other comment.

DutchManDanFan wrote:I think this is because some metrics in his formula are related to other players. Without a big gap relative to the other stars, you won’t score so high.

This was true of the formula I used last season (which I've now erased forever), but is no longer true.

DutchManDanFan wrote:Ppg and minutes played must have something to do with it. But team wins should be more important. It is for the voters, unless something special (TD for Westbrook) happened.

The formula uses Win Shares, VORP, On-Court +/-, On-Off +/-, and team wins. Points and minutes factor into those things, so you are, in a sense, correct.

DutchManDanFan wrote:It’s easy to fix though: Put the amount of wins for every loss in the equation.
Giannis has 6.00 wins for every loss.
Harden has 2.11 wins for every loss.

And you can add (subjective) bonus points for special events, like:
Triple double for the season = 3 points. Double double = 1 point
40+ ppg = 3 points, 35+ = 2 points, 30+ = 1 point.
No 2nd star = 1 point.

Are you going to make your own formula, keep track all season, and post your results? And past seasons? I'd be curious to see what you come up with. I'm fine with my formula, though. As I said, it matches the last eight MVP's.

DutchManDanFan · Post #1926 » by **DutchManDanFan** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:41 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
DutchManDanFan wrote:It’s easy to fix though: Put the amount of wins for every loss in the equation.
Giannis has 6.00 wins for every loss.
Harden has 2.11 wins for every loss.

And you can add (subjective) bonus points for special events, like:
Triple double for the season = 3 points. Double double = 1 point
40+ ppg = 3 points, 35+ = 2 points, 30+ = 1 point.
No 2nd star = 1 point.

Are you going to make your own formula, keep track all season, and post your results? And past seasons? I'd be curious to see what you come up with. I'm fine with my formula, though. As I said, it matches the last eight MVP's.

Nope. I respect the way you try to calculate the MVP every year. But I think you underestimate/undervalue the (subjective) thinking proces of the voters. I don't want to just criticize your formula, so I try to help to improve it. You can do this with adding bonus points as I suggested.

Finals MVP is always won by someone on the winning team. In the same way it's why the best player (by far) on the best team always is and will be a strong candidate for MVP. This doesn't reflect enough in your formula. I'm 100% sure Giannis wins if the voting is today, but you have him no 2.

dygaction · Post #1927 » by **dygaction** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:37 pm

DutchManDanFan wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
DutchManDanFan wrote:It’s easy to fix though: Put the amount of wins for every loss in the equation.
Giannis has 6.00 wins for every loss.
Harden has 2.11 wins for every loss.

And you can add (subjective) bonus points for special events, like:
Triple double for the season = 3 points. Double double = 1 point
40+ ppg = 3 points, 35+ = 2 points, 30+ = 1 point.
No 2nd star = 1 point.

Are you going to make your own formula, keep track all season, and post your results? And past seasons? I'd be curious to see what you come up with. I'm fine with my formula, though. As I said, it matches the last eight MVP's.

Nope. I respect the way you try to calculate the MVP every year. But I think you underestimate/undervalue the (subjective) thinking proces of the voters. I don't want to just criticize your formula, so I try to help to improve it. You can do this with adding bonus points as I suggested.

Finals MVP is always won by someone on the winning team. In the same way it's why the best player (by far) on the best team always is and will be a strong candidate for MVP. This doesn't reflect enough in your formula. I'm 100% sure Giannis wins if the voting is today, but you have him no 2.

The voting result from this thread is pretty convincing. Right now, the total vote for Giannis is greater than all others combined. The total vote for second place Doncic is greater than all the rest combined. Luka's injury is not helping, so there is really no base for anyone other than Giannis.

MrPerfect1 · Post #1928 » by **MrPerfect1** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:47 am

scrabbarista wrote:
MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

*The outliers pull up the average. I've gone back to 2001 now, and while the average is still a tick under 26, Harden and Antetokounmpo's current pace would put them 6th out of the last 20 seasons. So, they are playing at an historically elite level (so far). If you're curious, the only winners to finish above their current pace were '04 Garnett, '09 '10 '13 James, and '16 Curry.

MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season

He was very impressive per-minute/possession, of course, but you'd expect that from the MVP who played the least minutes in the last forty-plus seasons.

So it appears the biggest flaw in the formula is valuing minutes played. You basically are rewarding players for being less dominant and having to play more often.

The perfect Basketball player would play maybe 10 min/game but would bo so amazing the game would be over after this player left after 10 mins with a 40 point lead.

Ayt · Post #1929 » by **Ayt** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:50 am

Giannis not winning would be a travesty.

Post #1930 » by **bwgood77** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:07 am

These are fun when you are opposing team

Read on Twitter

Lalouie · Post #1931 » by **Lalouie** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:38 am

beginning of the season i thought lebron would have to get the mvp BEFORE ad.

after watching a few games i said "damn, ad is playing like an mvp".

i'm back to lebron again. if lebron is out the engine grinds to a halt, ad is great at what he's doing but he does not run the team.

ThatBoyNick · Post #1932 » by **ThatBoyNick** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:45 am

bwgood77 wrote:These are fun when you are opposing team

Read on Twitter

To be fair, with 1.5 seconds left he likely was going to shoot it immediately.

But yeah not the right call, should have been side out 14-second reset.

scrabbarista · Post #1933 » by **scrabbarista** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:51 am

MrPerfect1 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

*The outliers pull up the average. I've gone back to 2001 now, and while the average is still a tick under 26, Harden and Antetokounmpo's current pace would put them 6th out of the last 20 seasons. So, they are playing at an historically elite level (so far). If you're curious, the only winners to finish above their current pace were '04 Garnett, '09 '10 '13 James, and '16 Curry.

MrPerfect1 wrote:Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season

He was very impressive per-minute/possession, of course, but you'd expect that from the MVP who played the least minutes in the last forty-plus seasons.

So it appears the biggest flaw in the formula is valuing minutes played. You basically are rewarding players for being less dominant and having to play more often.

The perfect Basketball player would play maybe 10 min/game but would bo so amazing the game would be over after this player left after 10 mins with a 40 point lead.

How do I PM you? I wrote a response, but it's for you. I learned last season that posting stats and logic in this thread is a waste of time, but I'd still like to address you directly.

scrabbarista · Post #1934 » by **scrabbarista** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:56 am

bwgood77 wrote:These are fun when you are opposing team

Read on Twitter

Great point. I hadn't thought of that. It's true that he did hit 9 3's and dropped 47 including 13 points down the stretch to put the game out of reach, but getting two free throws for this play definitely invalidates all of that, as well as the three other times that he was hit on the arm while shooting and got credited for a missed attempt instead of getting to go to the line and add points for his team. I'm going to drop Harden from 1st to 8th on my MVP list. This is the kind of insightful commentary that keeps me coming back to RealGM. Keep it coming!

Post #1935 » by **bwgood77** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:51 am

scrabbarista wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:These are fun when you are opposing team

Read on Twitter

Great point. I hadn't thought of that. It's true that he did hit 9 3's and dropped 47 including 13 points down the stretch to put the game out of reach, but getting two free throws for this play definitely invalidates all of that, as well as the three other times that he was hit on the arm while shooting and got credited for a missed attempt instead of getting to go to the line and add points for his team. I'm going to drop Harden from 1st to 8th on my MVP list. This is the kind of insightful commentary that keeps me coming back to RealGM. Keep it coming!

Did I say it invalidates his great game? No. He had a phenomenal game and hit some crazy 3s down the stretch and the Suns had a bad 3pt shooting night. But that play was pretty crazy.

Cjbeatbox3 · Post #1936 » by **Cjbeatbox3** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:30 am

There was a play in the 3rd quarter of the Lakers-Bucks game the other night that was even worse call than Hardens. AD shot 15 Ft’s in the second half(when you are down big, refs will give you some freebies no matter what team you are if you’re aggressive , slightly expected)he was playing on that bad ankle so he was falling to the ground on every shot attempt so he didn’t have to plant on it. But in this instance he was just cutting down the lane from the top of the key and someone threw a chest pass to him that was in no one’s possession in the slightest, just a mess of hands and arms meeting at the ball. AD just threw his arms up like he got fouled and they gave him ft’s. Couldn’t help but chuckle and think man,they really are going out of there way to get LA back in it.

Gooner · Post #1937 » by **Gooner** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:17 am

Harden is the favorite to win the MVP. He is the mot unstoppable player in the NBA right now. You can live with freak shooting that three, even if he has a fluke game where he makes 5. You can't take anything away from Harden, he will beat you in every way possible.

Gam · Post #1938 » by **Gam** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:50 am

Gooner wrote:Harden is the favorite to win the MVP

Giannis is literally the +115 favorite according to sportsbooks.
If you truly believe this you should bet your life savings on Harden winning, but you won't because you're baiting and not actually stupid enough to think anyone but Giannis is leading the race.

Renzen · Post #1939 » by **Renzen** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:24 am

Gooner wrote:Harden is the favorite to win the MVP. He is the mot unstoppable player in the NBA right now. You can live with freak shooting that three, even if he has a fluke game where he makes 5. You can't take anything away from Harden, he will beat you in every way possible.

One plays a little over 30 minutes a night, because he puts away teams quickly... the other plays around 39 minutes, because he can't put them away...

Sent from my SM-J727T1 using RealGM mobile app

Ayt · Post #1940 » by **Ayt** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:41 pm

Renzen wrote:
Gooner wrote:Harden is the favorite to win the MVP. He is the mot unstoppable player in the NBA right now. You can live with freak shooting that three, even if he has a fluke game where he makes 5. You can't take anything away from Harden, he will beat you in every way possible.
One plays a little over 30 minutes a night, because he puts away teams quickly... the other plays around 39 minutes, because he can't put them away...

Sent from my SM-J727T1 using RealGM mobile app

The per possession stats are interesting. Giannis barely trails Harden when it comes to points and assists.

Who is your pick for the 2019-20 MVP?