MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[Gooner]

Harden is the favorite to win the MVP. He is the mot unstoppable player in the NBA right now. You can live with freak shooting that three, even if he has a fluke game where he makes 5. You can't take anything away from Harden, he will beat you in every way possible.

One plays a little over 30 minutes a night, because he puts away teams quickly... the other plays around 39 minutes, because he can't put them away...

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The per possession stats are interesting. Giannis barely trails Harden when it comes to points and assists.

Those can be misleading.

[Renzen]

One plays a little over 30 minutes a night, because he puts away teams quickly... the other plays around 39 minutes, because he can't put them away...

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The per possession stats are interesting. Giannis barely trails Harden when it comes to points and assists.

Those can be misleading.

Oh, how so? Please explain

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[scrabbarista]

One plays a little over 30 minutes a night, because he puts away teams quickly... the other plays around 39 minutes, because he can't put them away...

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The per possession stats are interesting. Giannis barely trails Harden when it comes to points and assists.

Those can be misleading.

If they're equal per possession and one guy is playing more than 20% more possessions, then the guy who's playing more is obviously the right choice.

Antetokounmpo plays less (partly) because the Bucks (+7.0) without Antetokounmpo are 12.0 points per100 better than the Rockets (-5.0) without Harden. When Antetokounmpo sits, his leads are growing. When Harden sits, his leads are shrinking or disappearing. This is fact.

All that said, my formula did move Antetokounmpo into 1st for the first time this morning. I think it had Harden leading the entire season up until today. This illustrates why I've used a formula for seven or eight years now for my all-time list: it's the only way not to end up merely rationalizing my own biases like nearly everyone else does. Most of the people knocking Harden have probably watched about 5% of his minutes this season, if that (highlights don't count!). I haven't watched much Antetokounmpo myself, but I've seen probably 25 games of Harden - maybe more. It's one thing to get your hate second-hand from social media, and it's another thing entirely to actually see a dude putting up a 50 piece burger and a 40 spot about once every ten days... and to see what actually happens when a team sees the strategy so much that it actually gets comfortable in offensive sets where its best player gets double-teamed as soon as he crosses half-court.

Anyway, as my formula has shown so far this season, these two players are on a level apart from everyone else right now. I already know (as do all Rockets fans) that Harden can probably only win it if there's literally no one else that media members can rationally vote for. That's the bias he faces. I say that as someone who believes the only season he deserved the Award was 2018, but also believes that the voting results in other seasons weren't nearly as close as they should have been - and knows the reason(s) why.

Last word, for all the GianniStans populating this thread: December 22nd, 2019, mark it down: I have Antetokounmpo in first, for now! Next week it could be different. The worst thing we can do in the MVP race every season is not recognize and appreciate greatness. Right now that means appreciating and recognizing two guys in particular.

[Madhouse]

Harden is the favorite to win the MVP. He is the mot unstoppable player in the NBA right now. You can live with freak shooting that three, even if he has a fluke game where he makes 5. You can't take anything away from Harden, he will beat you in every way possible.

The way I see it the Freak is the only unstoppable force in the NBA right now. On pace to break the all-time SRS with that supporting cast and PER record by Wilt?

Come, that absolutely ridiculous.

He is averaging a point per minute, just like Harden. he is simply 10x the defende. Averaging 31/13/6 on 57% shooting is absurd.

He is a bigger Scottie Pippen and Shaq in 1 person.

[durvasa]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

[Bernman]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

He plays less minutes because when he's on the floor the team is so dominant they play more garbage time. So it would be ironic if you'd cast that as him being less valuable. You're asking him and in turn the team to be worse for the time he's on the floor.

[scrabbarista]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

I agree. I have him in first for the moment (could change in a few days), but Harden has played nearly 21% more minutes than Antetokounmpo. Put another way, Antetokounmpo has played less than 63% of his team's total available minutes, whereas Harden has played more than 78% of his. It's true that Antetokounmpo has been dominant (so has Harden), but the reason Antetokounmpo can afford to play so little isn't just his dominance: it's also because in the 17 minutes per game that he isn't playing, the Bucks have outscored their opponents by about the same amount as the Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, in the 10 minutes per game that the Rockets have played without Harden, they've performed about on par with the Wizards or Grizzlies. I don't say any of this to argue for Harden (as I said, I have Antetokounmpo in first at the moment); my own formula substitutes Win Shares and VORP as proxies for this aspect of minutes/load/value. But I would hope undecided individuals would take this kind of stuff into consideration, is all I'm saying. I definitely agree that it would be strange to give it to a guy barely crossing 30 minutes per game (not to mention if he misses games!). Not out of the question, but strange, at least.

[scrabbarista]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

He plays less minutes because when he's on the floor the team is so dominant they play more garbage time. So it would be ironic if you'd cast that as him being less valuable. You're asking him and in turn the team to be worse for the time he's on the floor.

This narrative needs to die, because it's false. If it becomes true (which, by the numbers, it certainly could), then it can be revived. But as long as the numbers contradict it - which they clearly do - it's just a myth.

It's true that the Bucks are dominant with Antetokounmpo on the floor. No argument there. But, by the numbers, they're more dominant with Wesley Matthews on the floor. They're also more dominant with Donte DiVencenzo on the floor. (The same is true of Harden and Ben McLemore.) And, as I stated in another post, they've been almost exactly as "dominant" as the Boston Celtics in all of the minutes when Antetokounmpo has sat: the second place team in the conference! Yes, the Bucks have dominated when he's on the floor, but it's not as though he's putting his team so far ahead that he can afford to rest a lot: that can't be true when his team continues to crush teams in the 37% of their minutes when he sits!

Still, I do have him in 1st at the moment. He's doing enough.

TL;DR It's a myth that Bucks opponents can't catch up because Antetokounmpo puts the Bucks so far ahead. The reason (most) Bucks opponents can't catch up is because they're getting outscored - by a lot, actually - even when he sits.

[greekbuck34]

So you are saying if Giannis was playing in garbage time against scrubs to stat pad his PPG like some .. other players he would be more valuable to the Bucks.

[greekbuck34]

Giannis on court = +11.3 (the highest by far)
Giannis off court = +2.0 (the lowest by far)

Harden on court = +6.5 (the highest with Ben McLemore)
Harden off court = -0.8 (the lowest with Ben McLemore)

[TheProdigy]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

He plays less minutes because when he's on the floor the team is so dominant they play more garbage time. So it would be ironic if you'd cast that as him being less valuable. You're asking him and in turn the team to be worse for the time he's on the floor.

This narrative needs to die, because it's false. If it becomes true (which, by the numbers, it certainly could), then it can be revived. But as long as the numbers contradict it - which they clearly do - it's just a myth.

It's true that the Bucks are dominant with Antetokounmpo on the floor. No argument there. But, by the numbers, they're more dominant with Wesley Matthews on the floor. They're also more dominant with Donte DiVencenzo on the floor. (The same is true of Harden and Ben McLemore.) And, as I stated in another post, they've been almost exactly as "dominant" as the Boston Celtics in all of the minutes when Antetokounmpo has sat: the second place team in the conference! Yes, the Bucks have dominated when he's on the floor, but it's not as though he's putting his team so far ahead that he can afford to rest a lot: that can't be true when his team continues to crush teams in the 37% of their minutes when he sits!

Still, I do have him in 1st at the moment. He's doing enough.

TL;DR It's a myth that Bucks opponents can't catch up because Antetokounmpo puts the Bucks so far ahead. The reason (most) Bucks opponents can't catch up is because they're getting outscored - by a lot, actually - even when he sits.

The thing you need to remember is that the Bucks have arguably the best bench in the league. Their starting lineup is very good, but it's not the best starting lineup in the league. As a result, the on/off numbers will be a little misleading for Giannis.

The opposite is true for Lebron, the Lakers have a great starting 5 and a terrible bench, so his on/off numbers will be inflated. Put Giannis on the Lakers, and his on/off numbers would be absurd.

[DutchManDanFan]

Scrab,
Finals MVP is always won by someone on the winning team.
In the same way the best player (by far) on the best team always will be a strong candidate (lots of times the favourite) for MVP.
This doesn't reflect enough in your formula, I guess. I'm 100% sure Giannis wins if the voting is today (or was 2 weeks ago), but you had him no 2.

[Ron Swanson]

Or, you know, we can just stop this incredibly lazy practice of penalizing great players for not playing with trash benches. No one's saying Harden isn't carrying the Rockets offensively and that it isn't incredibly impressive. What Giannis is doing on both ends of the court is simply better and more historic than what Harden's doing. I mean, the Bucks are a staggering +16.7 points per-100 when Giannis is on the court. Case **** closed.

[MrPerfect1]

So you are saying if Giannis was playing in garbage time against scrubs to stat pad his PPG like some .. other players he would be more valuable to the Bucks.

Obviously! Truly valuable players play the entire 4th Quarter because 30 points wins are not very valuable. Winning by 40 instead of 30 though is Super Valuable.

[durvasa]

It isn't really about penalizing Giannis. It goes back to what the MVP award actually means. It doesn't exactly mean best player. Nor does it exactly mean best player on best team. The MVP is really about how you lift your team and add wins to your team. If Giannis is a little ahead of Harden on per possession impact, which appears to be the case based on the various metrics out there, but he's playing 7-8 less minutes a game, the total amount he is lifting his team could be less. Even if his team has a much better record than Harden's. It is all too easy to give full credit for team success to a team's best player. But when a team's best player is only on the floor for 31 minutes a night because his team is able to increase leads more of than not when he's off the floor, even against starting lineups, you have to question how much of that credit the best player should be getting.

[AussieBuck]

Pretending that it's close because they are similar on offense while ignoring the massive chasm between them on the defensive end is one thing. Pretending that Giannis isn't running away with this because the Bucks are deep 6-12 is an even bigger stretch.

We're on track to smash a bunch of all time records and will win more than 70 games if we don't completely throw our April games. Having Hill, Donte, Brown, Ersan, Lopez, Korver and Connaughton off the bench doesn't diminish Giannis. lulz

[mediocrityrules]

Giannis is the most unstoppable force we’ve seen since peak Shaq. He has a strong argument for being the game’s best player.

But, for an MVP award, at what point should we start deducting from his case for his lack of minutes? He’s at less than 30 per game for the month of December. Less than 30 for the season is still in play. Shouldn’t that matter for a “most VALUABlE player“ award?

I think he probably is most deserving, honestly, but it would be strange giving an MVP to a guy who barely crosses the 30 mpg threshold.

He plays less minutes because when he's on the floor the team is so dominant they play more garbage time. So it would be ironic if you'd cast that as him being less valuable. You're asking him and in turn the team to be worse for the time he's on the floor.

This narrative needs to die, because it's false. If it becomes true (which, by the numbers, it certainly could), then it can be revived. But as long as the numbers contradict it - which they clearly do - it's just a myth.

It's true that the Bucks are dominant with Antetokounmpo on the floor. No argument there. But, by the numbers, they're more dominant with Wesley Matthews on the floor. They're also more dominant with Donte DiVencenzo on the floor. (The same is true of Harden and Ben McLemore.) And, as I stated in another post, they've been almost exactly as "dominant" as the Boston Celtics in all of the minutes when Antetokounmpo has sat: the second place team in the conference! Yes, the Bucks have dominated when he's on the floor, but it's not as though he's putting his team so far ahead that he can afford to rest a lot: that can't be true when his team continues to crush teams in the 37% of their minutes when he sits!

Still, I do have him in 1st at the moment. He's doing enough.

TL;DR It's a myth that Bucks opponents can't catch up because Antetokounmpo puts the Bucks so far ahead. The reason (most) Bucks opponents can't catch up is because they're getting outscored - by a lot, actually - even when he sits.

There's at least 2, maybe 3 games where he hasn't even seen the floor in the fourth. His on-court numbers in the fourth are low (i haven't checked exactly but I'm sure someone will start the comparisons), so I don't see how you can completely dismiss this narrative. The fact is that he plays the bulk of his minutes in the first 3 qtrs, and the bench can hold and even extend the lead in the 4th, contributing to your slightly skewed numbers above.

[brettski]

If they're equal per possession and one guy is playing more than 20% more possessions, then the guy who's playing more is obviously the right choice.

Well that's just not true.

[StickeeFingaz]

I remember the beginning of last year, scabbarista was claiming he's unbiased when it comes to evaluating MVP. Now he's sitting at home wearing his full Harden kit while posting in this thread.

[MrPerfect1]

It isn't really about penalizing Giannis. It goes back to what the MVP award actually means. It doesn't exactly mean best player. Nor does it exactly mean best player on best team. The MVP is really about how you lift your team and add wins to your team. If Giannis is a little ahead of Harden on per possession impact, which appears to be the case based on the various metrics out there, but he's playing 7-8 less minutes a game, the total amount he is lifting his team could be less. Even if his team has a much better record than Harden's. It is all too easy to give full credit for team success to a team's best player. But when a team's best player is only on the floor for 31 minutes a night because his team is able to increase leads more of than not when he's off the floor, even against starting lineups, you have to question how much of that credit the best player should be getting.

Even if we give Harden the benefit of the doubt regarding minutes played(which has numerous problems), it still wouldn't make up for the Massive Chasm between them on Defense