MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[AussieBuck]

Doncic being 2nd in rgm poll confirms that he has Kobe/Lebron tier stans. Crazy because his nba career literally just started.

He does but also the new poll started directly after his Mavs beat the Lakers. Timing helped, we'll see what happens when the new poll goes up.

[ken6199]

To those still saying "Giannis is 10x better than Harden on defense".

Harden's post defense has been elite for years and that should not be a secret. This year, he is 0.32 points allowed per post-up that's first among players who defended 20 post-up plays or more. That's not because he is a guard so his post up defense is a small sample size. Harden is 2nd in total number of post-ups defended of any player - not just centers - and in the 98.5th percentile for the entire NBA and that ranks him at 4th best.

His post-up defense frequency is staggering 12.9%. To give you an idea, Giannis 2.9%, Zubac 6.5%, Milsap 5.5%, oh Marcus Smart 13.5%. Teams till this day still have the misconception that they can bully guys like Harden and Smart down low because of their size. Due to the below average front court size of this Rockets team they stopped switching Capela to the perimeter (despite playing a switch-all scheme) but whenever it involves Harden, they switch without hesitation knowing he can hold his own in the paint against bigger power forwards and centers. Harden is a key component of Rockets defensive system considering he averages a league leading 37.6 mpg.

Harden has been top 10 in steals and deflections since 2017 too. To those saying he is an easy blow by target on the perimeter: Harden is in the 85.9th percentile of isolation defense this season. Not elite of the elite, but certainly in the "solid" category.

The numbers and eye tests both suggest he improved his defense significantly compared to a few years ago, both skill wise and effort wise. This is a testament to his engagement level to the game considering his offensive load and minutes played. Giannis is comfortably leading him in the MVP race because he is playing flawless on both ends of the floor with his team also excelling, but "basketball is about both ends and Giannis is 10x better than Harden" should no longer be one of those bullet points. This is not 15-16 anymore where Harden won the shaqtin a fool MVP, 18th percentile on overall defense and youtube lowlights all over the place (or I can go back to 15-16 version of Giannis too). We are entering 2020. There is no need to bend over backwards to support Giannis' leading position which is already loud and clear with all the evidence presented to us so far.

[clyde21]

Kawhi 2 votes

lemme guess

HBK and Yogatti

[Presence]

There's a chance that Giannis will get a unanimous MVP, and the standard-bearers of the Harden nation will still think that he was robbed.

[AussieBuck]

To those still saying "Giannis is 10x better than Harden on defense".

Harden's post defense has been elite for years and that should not be a secret. This year, he is 0.32 points allowed per post-up that's first among players who defended 20 post-up plays or more. That's not because he is a guard so his post up defense is a small sample size. Harden is 2nd in total number of post-ups defended of any player - not just centers - and in the 98.5th percentile for the entire NBA and that ranks him at 4th best.

His post-up defense frequency is staggering 12.9%. To give you an idea, Giannis 2.9%, Zubac 6.5%, Milsap 5.5%, oh Marcus Smart 13.5%. Teams till this day still have the misconception that they can bully guys like Harden and Smart down low because of their size. Due to the below average front court size of this Rockets team they stopped switching Capela to the perimeter (despite playing a switch-all scheme) but whenever it involves Harden, they switch without hesitation knowing he can hold his own in the paint against bigger power forwards and centers. Harden is a key component of Rockets defensive system considering he averages a league leading 37.6 mpg.

Harden has been top 10 in steals and deflections since 2017 too. To those saying he is an easy blow by target on the perimeter: Harden is in the 85.9th percentile of isolation defense this season. Not elite of the elite, but certainly in the "solid" category.

The numbers and eye tests both suggest he improved his defense significantly compared to a few years ago, both skill wise and effort wise. This is a testament to his engagement level to the game considering his offensive load and minutes played. Giannis is comfortably leading him in the MVP race because he is playing flawless on both ends of the floor with his team also excelling, but "basketball is about both ends and Giannis is 10x better than Harden" should no longer be one of those bullet points. This is not 15-16 anymore where Harden won the shaqtin a fool MVP, 18th percentile on overall defense and youtube lowlights all over the place (or I can go back to 15-16 version of Giannis too). We are entering 2020. There is no need to bend over backwards to support Giannis' leading position which is already loud and clear with all the evidence presented to us so far.

Even accepting the position that Harden is now a good defender, he's still nowhere near DPOY level, it's still a massive gap.

[clyde21]

There's a chance that Giannis will get a unanimous MVP, and the standard-bearers of the Harden nation will still think that he was robbed.

Harden is been getting robbed since 2015 apparently lol

[greekbuck34]

To those still saying "Giannis is 10x better than Harden on defense".

Harden's post defense has been elite for years and that should not be a secret. This year, he is 0.32 points allowed per post-up that's first among players who defended 20 post-up plays or more. That's not because he is a guard so his post up defense is a small sample size. Harden is 2nd in total number of post-ups defended of any player - not just centers - and in the 98.5th percentile for the entire NBA and that ranks him at 4th best.

His post-up defense frequency is staggering 12.9%. To give you an idea, Giannis 2.9%, Zubac 6.5%, Milsap 5.5%, oh Marcus Smart 13.5%. Teams till this day still have the misconception that they can bully guys like Harden and Smart down low because of their size. Due to the below average front court size of this Rockets team they stopped switching Capela to the perimeter (despite playing a switch-all scheme) but whenever it involves Harden, they switch without hesitation knowing he can hold his own in the paint against bigger power forwards and centers. Harden is a key component of Rockets defensive system considering he averages a league leading 37.6 mpg.

Harden has been top 10 in steals and deflections since 2017 too. To those saying he is an easy blow by target on the perimeter: Harden is in the 85.9th percentile of isolation defense this season. Not elite of the elite, but certainly in the "solid" category.

The numbers and eye tests both suggest he improved his defense significantly compared to a few years ago, both skill wise and effort wise. This is a testament to his engagement level to the game considering his offensive load and minutes played. Giannis is comfortably leading him in the MVP race because he is playing flawless on both ends of the floor with his team also excelling, but "basketball is about both ends and Giannis is 10x better than Harden" should no longer be one of those bullet points. This is not 15-16 anymore where Harden won the shaqtin a fool MVP, 18th percentile on overall defense and youtube lowlights all over the place (or I can go back to 15-16 version of Giannis too). We are entering 2020. There is no need to bend over backwards to support Giannis' leading position which is already loud and clear with all the evidence presented to us so far.

10x decent defender = top 3 DPOY

Giannis, Gobert and AD do make a huge difference in that part of the game.

No matter how much Harden improved(mainly in the post) from being trash on defense nobody actually takes him seriously and most of the guards will keep attacking and blow by him in the perimeter or take advantage of the all switching strategy of the rockets and the dumb mistakes that come after low IQ defenders like Harden and Westbrook.

[Greek]

I am on this forum since 2004, i rarely posting anything but i read this forum regularly. The claim that Harden is higher than Giannis (and actually Giannis is wrong, the correct is Yiannis) because is playing more minutes, is one of the most absurd claims that i ever seen, and on those 15 years ive seen a lot. Just give to that young man what he rightfully deserves. The crown of the best player. The ring its matter of time, he is only 25.

[JN61]

I have currently:

Giannis
Doncic
Harden
James

Harden is probably passing Doncic in few weeks if current trends hold, I still have Doncic there because Mavs are highly overachieving. However Harden has chance to rival Giannis if Rockets manage to take lead in WC.

[brettski]

Amazing how much of this thread is Harden vs Giannis arguing yet Giannis has 230 votes, Harden 23. Small loud minority much?

[brettski]

Kawhi 2 votes

lemme guess

HBK and Yogatti

Thanks I was wondering who the second one was.

[life_saver]

I thought last year's MVP was very tight one, I was leaning slightly towards Harden but felt like either of Giannis, Harden would be deserved winners....but this year, Giannis for me is frontrunner by good margin. Doubt anyone is gonna overtake him unless he has some lengthy injury. Harden might end up with another 2nd place finish

[Strepbacter]

To those still saying "Giannis is 10x better than Harden on defense".

Improved significantly since a few years ago? Dude was still a terrible defensive guard last SEASON.

The Rockets were 1.9 points better defensively with him off the court than on than on according to basketball-ref
The Rockers were 5.2 points better defensively with him off the court than on according to NBA.com (worst on the team and one of the worst in the league): https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
His 2019 DRAPM ranked #361 in the league by this source: http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=-1106328546
His 2019 DRAPm ranked #436 in the league by this source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true
#248 in DRPM (overrates him due to box-score prior): http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2019/page/7/sort/DRPM
-0.86 DRAPM. #436 in the league.
Defensive On/Off of +1.9 (worst among all regular rotation players on the team) according to BballRef
They have a 110.3 defensive rating with him on the court, and 105.1 with him off according to NBA.com. Again, it's easily the worst mark of anybody on the team, and one of the worst in the entire league.
-1.53 D-PIPM. A bottom twenty mark in the entire league.

His 2017-2019 DRAPM is at -1.08. That ranks #661 in the league.

Dude was absolute garbage on defense. Stop it.

He's been better this season, but we're only 30 gms in, and he's still not remotely close to Giannis

Giannis is DPOY level. They're not even in the same universe.

[Jazztop]

Giannis is about as sure a thing as Lamar Jackson.

Harden will be the only one to put up some numbers to provide some sort of challenge. But he’ll probably be best of the rest.

[Pg81]

Doncic being 2nd in rgm poll confirms that he has Kobe/Lebron tier stans. Crazy because his nba career literally just started.

Is it really that bad that a Mavs fan roots for his best player who had a fantastic breakout season at mere 20 years old? Most of us expect Giannis to win anyway and what Luka has done in Dallas is bordering a minor miracle. Most NBA fans had the Mavs missing the playoffs and now they were on course being 5th seed or 6th seed before Luka went down.

[freethedevil]

To those still saying "Giannis is 10x better than Harden on defense".

[/quote]
Given harden's a negative on defense, I think 10x is probably underselling it.

Harden's post defense has been elite for years and that should not be a secret.

If post defense wasn't the least valauble defensive skill, this might be a compelling point. Even then he isn't "elite" at the post. Players spceifically avoid the best post defenders in the league. For what it's worth, Harden is good at post defense now. That's just not enough to make up for being unable to switch.

Harden has been top 10 in steals and deflections since 2017 too.

So Iverson was a good defender? He gets steals as a result of gambling and at the expense of lots of defensive errors. For comparison, the likes of lowry and curry are able to get steals without making defensive errors. Harden's deflections are a result of bad positional d.

To those saying he is an easy blow by target on the perimeter: Harden is in the 85.9th percentile of isolation defense this season. Not elite of the elite, but certainly in the "solid" category.

Because he's hidden on the post and his teammates leave gaps to overhelp him.

The numbers and eye tests both suggest he improved his defense significantly compared to a few years ago,

Numbers still say the rockets defense is better without him on the floor. It's not quite as bad as it used to be, but he isn't a positive on that end.

Giannis is comfortably leading him in the MVP race because he is playing flawless on both ends of the floor with his team also excelling, but "basketball is about both ends and Giannis is 10x better than Harden" should no longer be one of those bullet points. This is not 15-16 anymore where Harden won the shaqtin a fool MVP, 18th percentile on overall defense and youtube lowlights all over the place (or I can go back to 15-16 version of Giannis too). We are entering 2020. There is no need to bend over backwards to support Giannis' leading position which is already loud and clear with all the evidence presented to us so far.

Giannis is literally way more than 10x valauable defensively by any sort of impact data. Why shouldn't that be a bullet point?

[freethedevil]

Enjoy your bias, everyone! That's what it's there for!

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how harden's better when plus minus stats that adjust for lineups clearly put Giannis ahead. How can you be upset about giannis's getting mvp basedon team success when your only argument is based on raw on/off, a team statistic?

[freethedevil]

As of the morning of December 20th.

PLAYER Total

Harden 12.7
Anteto 12.2
James 10.37
Butler 9.16
Doncic 8.89
Leonar 8.86
Gobert 8.48
Lillard 8.1

*This formula matches the last 8 MVP winners and 10 of the last 11, which is as far back as I've taken it.

*The minimum MVP threshold seems to be about 23.0 (Antetokounmpo and Harden were barely above this last season), and an "average" MVP seems to be about 26.

*2016 Curry was a 31.3 and 2009 James was a 33.4.

*If Harden were to play all 82 games, he is on pace for a 28.2.

*If Antetokounmpo were to play all 81 games, he is on pace for a 27.

*I'm not going to post every week like last season, and I definitely don't intend to engage in conversation within the thread. I'll probably next post either in January or whenever there's another big, relevant night like the one we had last night. Enjoy your bias, everyone! That's what it's there for!

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

[scrabbarista]

As of the morning of December 20th.

PLAYER Total

Harden 12.7
Anteto 12.2
James 10.37
Butler 9.16
Doncic 8.89
Leonar 8.86
Gobert 8.48
Lillard 8.1

*This formula matches the last 8 MVP winners and 10 of the last 11, which is as far back as I've taken it.

*The minimum MVP threshold seems to be about 23.0 (Antetokounmpo and Harden were barely above this last season), and an "average" MVP seems to be about 26.

*2016 Curry was a 31.3 and 2009 James was a 33.4.

*If Harden were to play all 82 games, he is on pace for a 28.2.

*If Antetokounmpo were to play all 81 games, he is on pace for a 27.

*I'm not going to post every week like last season, and I definitely don't intend to engage in conversation within the thread. I'll probably next post either in January or whenever there's another big, relevant night like the one we had last night. Enjoy your bias, everyone! That's what it's there for!

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

You're responding to rankings that are five days old.
My current rankings have Antetokounmpo in 1st at 14.0 and Harden in 2nd at 12.9.
Also, I noticed how you used nothing but per-minute stats when one guy has played 21% more minutes even though his team has played one game fewer. Nothing biased about that.

Merry Christmas!

[freethedevil]

I'd definitely question a metric that had Giannis (and Harden) at the absolute bottom of the MVP threshold last season and only has Giannis a tiny bit above an average MVP season so far this season.

His metric doesn't adjust for lineups, hence why it's results are so wonky.

Here's what metrics that do adjust for lineups(and unlike scrab's STAT have been tested on their ability to predict wins) say:

PIPM:
Giannis +9
Harden +7
Luka +6.7

Backpicks BPM(skewed towards offense since it relies more on box based data):
Giannis +8.6
Harden +8

ESPN RPM(hasn't been around enough for serious testing):
Giannis +8
Harden +6.6

There's quite literally nothing that says harden is mvp but scrab's data which
A. doesn't adjust for lineups making it a team stat(like record)
B. Hasn't been tested and hence we have zero clue how accurate it is.

But don't let that stop scrab from telling everyone how biased we are.

You're responding to rankings that are five days old.
My current rankings have Antetokounmpo in 1st at 14.0 and Harden in 2nd at 12.9.

Cool, does it adjust for lineups? Because if it doesn't, then it's no better than basing MVP on w-l record