Tatum and Brown, as 1-2 Options

zoyathedestroya · Post #481 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:29 pm

Tatum is utilizing the stop-and-fake under the basket now instead of just recklessly barreling to the rim and throwing up a prayer. This could get him more and-1s. Also, he's let the glass become his friend and using the angles more with his layups.

Bluewhale · Post #482 » by **Bluewhale** » Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:50 am

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
According to ESPN RPM, Tatum is ranked at #5, Brown is ranked at #18.

I know RPM is not a perfect measure, but...
it seems safe to argue Tatum is top 15 player and Brown is a top 30 player now.

Slax · Post #483 » by **Slax** » Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:26 am

Bluewhale wrote:http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
According to ESPN RPM, Tatum is ranked at #5, Brown is ranked at #18.

I know RPM is not a perfect measure, but...
it seems safe to argue Tatum is top 15 player and Brown is a top 30 player now.

Caveat: I'm a bit of a skeptic of advanced +/- stats like RPM. They generally give you a good rough ranking, but then they also have a lot of weird statistical artifacts in how they attribute success caused by things like substitution patterns and how tall players are, and they don't really hold up as well as you might expect when players change roles or teams even though adjusting for those things is supposed to be their whole point.

Nonetheless, this does reflect that we have been an extremely good team and that Tatum and Brown have been a huge part of that. So full credit to them, and I hope they continue playing well.

zoyathedestroya · Post #484 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:14 am

A couple of years ago, we had quite a few advanced stat darlings on the team -- The Kelly Olynyk, Horford, Amir Johnson, Smart, etc. To me, those are reserved for good to high-level role players. My wish then was to have players who impact the game as reflected by advanced stats WHILE ALSO putting up biggish box scores. These players are more of the all-NBA calibre or franchise cornerstone types. We might be getting there sooner than I had hoped.

zoyathedestroya · Post #485 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:41 am

LOL at Hayward's face in the 3rd pic.

Read on Twitter

FlatearthZorro · Post #486 » by **FlatearthZorro** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:55 am

Us by 10 + if we play the way we're supposed to. Maybe even a blowout. Raptors are more injured than us as of right now.

zoyathedestroya · Post #487 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:56 pm

Read on Twitter

Full highlights:

Watch on YouTube

GuyClinch · Post #488 » by **GuyClinch** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:55 pm

Jaylen's been better then Tatum of late - but both have looked great overall. Tatum goes Antione Walker on us way too much for me to buy into any "advanced" stat where he crushes Brown.

In hoops efficency is king - especially on a team with tons of scorers. Things like +/- has to do with substitution patterns and the like. This is why so called 'advanced' stats vary so much from year to year.. how the coach uses you has a ton do with your numbers. Stick say Hayward with Semi off the bench and Hayward advance stats would crater because Semi stinks.

zoyathedestroya · Post #489 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:26 pm

Him and Jayson should have a heart-to-heart talk. His partner in crime can learn a thing or two.

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Big Joke Line · Post #490 » by **Big Joke Line** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:34 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:

Read on Twitter

Full highlights:

Watch on YouTube

That set play off the timeout down 10-0 was huge. I said it in the game thread and I’ll say it again - Jaylen should be our go to when we need a hoop. I know Kemba is the man right now and Tatum is ahead of him on the depth chart here but I think Jaylen is the closer of the future so might as well start now.

Fencer reregistered · Post #491 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:59 am

zoyathedestroya wrote:

Read on Twitter

That shot was really a better decision than passing to Romeo for an open 3 would have been?

mwhis21 · Post #492 » by **mwhis21** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:03 am

GuyClinch wrote:Jaylen's been better then Tatum of late - but both have looked great overall. Tatum goes Antione Walker on us way too much for me to buy into any "advanced" stat where he crushes Brown.

In hoops efficency is king - especially on a team with tons of scorers. Things like +/- has to do with substitution patterns and the like. This is why so called 'advanced' stats vary so much from year to year.. how the coach uses you has a ton do with your numbers. Stick say Hayward with Semi off the bench and Hayward advance stats would crater because Semi stinks.

Brown has been better than Tatum since the second half of last year. Tatum gets the big time hype but Brown is his equal or at worst slightly less than that.

I think it’s Tatums upside that gives him the edge. But Browns upside should be talked about more.

Tatum too often comes out of the gate 1-7, 2-8...He needs to be aggressive to the rim early vs tossing up shots. Get some rhythm.

But have to love the development of these two. Incredible talents.

GuyClinch · Post #493 » by **GuyClinch** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:33 am

Sky is the limit for these two. I think Tatum is doing pretty well despite his sometimes awful shooting runs. Thing is I look at the quality of the shots - not just if you make or miss them. For example Hayward absolutely clanked a 3 today. But no big it was a good shot because he was wide open.

Tatum will still miss too much but if they are quality shots for him - keep taking them. His ridiculous runners while lunging towards the hoop shots are way down so it far more tolerable..

Post #494 » by **Slartibartfast** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:41 am

GuyClinch wrote:Sky is the limit for these two. I think Tatum is doing pretty well despite his sometimes awful shooting runs. Thing is I look at the quality of the shots - not just if you make or miss them. For example Hayward absolutely clanked a 3 today. But no big it was a good shot because he was wide open.

Tatum will still miss too much but if they are quality shots for him - keep taking them. His ridiculous runners while lunging towards the hoop shots are way down so it far more tolerable..

Calling his number more seems to get him better shots.

The problem is when it's a free-flowing opportunity offense and he gets into shot-hunting mode. Far more than JB and Kemba, Tatum seems to be evaluating himself in terms of PPG and he will force the looks if they are not coming naturally.

That's probably just youth though - he's the youngest of the bunch and has the most hype from his peers to live up to.

DoubleHappiness · Post #495 » by **DoubleHappiness** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:14 am

Slartibartfast wrote:
GuyClinch wrote:Sky is the limit for these two. I think Tatum is doing pretty well despite his sometimes awful shooting runs. Thing is I look at the quality of the shots - not just if you make or miss them. For example Hayward absolutely clanked a 3 today. But no big it was a good shot because he was wide open.

Tatum will still miss too much but if they are quality shots for him - keep taking them. His ridiculous runners while lunging towards the hoop shots are way down so it far more tolerable..

Calling his number more seems to get him better shots.

The problem is when it's a free-flowing opportunity offense and he gets into shot-hunting mode. Far more than JB and Kemba, Tatum seems to be evaluating himself in terms of PPG and he will force the looks if they are not coming naturally.

That's probably just youth though - he's the youngest of the bunch and has the most hype from his peers to live up to.

Also the one playing for his first big contract

zoyathedestroya · Post #496 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:06 pm

Brown's shot chart so far...

He's been above league average from every area on the court -- restricted area, paint, above the break 3, midrange, corner 3.

Source: positiveresidual.com

If he keeps getting his shots within the flow of the offense and doesn't force/overdo things, I think this is sustainable. It helps that he gets to the line more and has also improved his FT shooting %. He's a matchup problem since more attention is geared towards the other three scorers and he could get the lesser defenders most nights.

sam_I_am · Post #497 » by **sam_I_am** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:48 pm

I still think the team is asking JT to increase his usage. As a rookie he was too passive and hesitated when he had open 3s while guys like Morris jacked it up. At times he seems to be forcing too much especially given how loaded the roster is but the team thrives with him attacking even when he has an off night. I suspect that Brad is looking ahead to playoffs when you need a guy who is confident enough to get his own shot in key moments. It can be frustrating when one guy is looking for his own shot like Tatum last night when the rest of team is moving the bell around and scoring with high efficiency. I don’t think he is a ball hog however, I think it is by design.

Big Joke Line · Post #498 » by **Big Joke Line** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:15 pm

sam_I_am wrote:I still think the team is asking JT to increase his usage. As a rookie he was too passive and hesitated when he had open 3s while guys like Morris jacked it up. At times he seems to be forcing too much especially given how loaded the roster is but the team thrives with him attacking even when he has an off night. I suspect that Brad is looking ahead to playoffs when you need a guy who is confident enough to get his own shot in key moments. It can be frustrating when one guy is looking for his own shot like Tatum last night when the rest of team is moving the bell around and scoring with high efficiency. I don’t think he is a ball hog however, I think it is by design.

I always thought JB had the higher likelihood to becoming a star but that Tatum’s ceiling was a little higher.

A lot of this had to do with intensity and desire which I didn’t get from JT before this year. He still has a ways to go in that area IMO but I’m a lot more confident in his getting there since he’s displayed it a lot more regularly this season.

That said with JB’s continued body transformation I’m not sure who I now feel has the higher ceiling.

sam_I_am · Post #499 » by **sam_I_am** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:24 pm

Big Joke Line wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:I still think the team is asking JT to increase his usage. As a rookie he was too passive and hesitated when he had open 3s while guys like Morris jacked it up. At times he seems to be forcing too much especially given how loaded the roster is but the team thrives with him attacking even when he has an off night. I suspect that Brad is looking ahead to playoffs when you need a guy who is confident enough to get his own shot in key moments. It can be frustrating when one guy is looking for his own shot like Tatum last night when the rest of team is moving the bell around and scoring with high efficiency. I don’t think he is a ball hog however, I think it is by design.

I always thought JB had the higher likelihood to becoming a star but that Tatum’s ceiling was a little higher.

A lot of this had to do with intensity and desire which I didn’t get from JT before this year. He still has a ways to go in that area IMO but I’m a lot more confident in his getting there since he’s displayed it a lot more regularly this season.

That said with JB’s continued body transformation I’m not sure who I now feel has the higher ceiling.

To me it’s clear as day. Tatum is the one with a chance to be a superstar and he is already showing he can be #1 option. Brown is excelling in his role as third banana. I don’t think you would want him to be a #1 even on a bad team. Brown is killing it as a 3 and D guy and bringing even more to the table than that while Tatum is still struggling as he adapts to role as teams best player.

keevsnick1 · Post #500 » by **keevsnick1** » Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:11 pm

sam_I_am wrote:
Big Joke Line wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:I still think the team is asking JT to increase his usage. As a rookie he was too passive and hesitated when he had open 3s while guys like Morris jacked it up. At times he seems to be forcing too much especially given how loaded the roster is but the team thrives with him attacking even when he has an off night. I suspect that Brad is looking ahead to playoffs when you need a guy who is confident enough to get his own shot in key moments. It can be frustrating when one guy is looking for his own shot like Tatum last night when the rest of team is moving the bell around and scoring with high efficiency. I don’t think he is a ball hog however, I think it is by design.

I always thought JB had the higher likelihood to becoming a star but that Tatum’s ceiling was a little higher.

A lot of this had to do with intensity and desire which I didn’t get from JT before this year. He still has a ways to go in that area IMO but I’m a lot more confident in his getting there since he’s displayed it a lot more regularly this season.

That said with JB’s continued body transformation I’m not sure who I now feel has the higher ceiling.

To me it’s clear as day. Tatum is the one with a chance to be a superstar and he is already showing he can be #1 option. Brown is excelling in his role as third banana. I don’t think you would want him to be a #1 even on a bad team. Brown is killing it as a 3 and D guy and bringing even more to the table than that while Tatum is still struggling as he adapts to role as teams best player.

Theres a chance this is how it ends up for sure, but I'm not sure why exactly Brown can't be a superstar. The only thing Tatum can do right now that Brown cant is that step-back/side-step three. Everything else they are fairy comparable. And Brown has certainly improved a lot since his rookie year. Tatum is younger which obviously helps him, but three years from now if Brown is the better player it wouldn't surprise me and It wouldn't necessarily mean Tatum was a disappointment just that Brown is really good.