2020 NBA Draft

[clyde21]

Haliburton can spot up which is valuable for sure but again, the difference between he and SGA is that SGA is more an on-ball shot maker, more dynamic in terms of getting his shot off and types of shots he can take...Haliburton doesn't have that game offensively

but as long as he's shooting well from 3 as a spot up guy it's fine, he gives you a lot in terms of defense and playmaking.

[Jamaaliver]

Jamaal, you're making my point. Lonzo shot 55% from the field and 41% from 3 his one year at UCLA. Once he got to the NBA with better athletes his poor shooting technique was exposed. Same is going to happen to Halliburton. No one is going succeed in the NBA playing PG and shooting set shots from 3. IN fact, I think Halliburton's set shot may be even worse than Lonzo's wrong side of the head release in terms of being able to get it off vs NBA players.

Don't fall into the same trap

Noted

[No-Man]

Tyrese may be Lonzo/Delon type, yeah, but that's still worth a bet late lotto, esp in this class

SGA has more juice than any of those dudes, not comparable whatsoever

Hali has more juice than Lonzo though

[shakes0]

Tyrese may be Lonzo/Delon type, yeah, but that's still worth a bet late lotto, esp in this class

SGA has more juice than any of those dudes, not comparable whatsoever

Hali has more juice than Lonzo though

what is "juice"?

[No-Man]

Tyrese may be Lonzo/Delon type, yeah, but that's still worth a bet late lotto, esp in this class

SGA has more juice than any of those dudes, not comparable whatsoever

Hali has more juice than Lonzo though

what is "juice"?

on-ball creation chops

I mean that was obvious with Lonzo in college too, he was not going to run PNR, first podcast I did in english (What's on Draft?) debuted with an episode about how Ball was not a PG and more of a wing with connecting tools for an offense

Delon has more juice than Lonzo (who has physical limitations, not only regarding his game), but he is not aggressive enough either

SGA is different than them, NAW has more shooting but I think he is limited creating due to being a so-so athlete

Hali is somewhere there, I think he is good, safe-ish to be solid, just do not see the ceiling play to have him top5 (in any draft, regardless of this one being bad at the top)

[clyde21]

yea, it's tough to put Haliburton top 5 just because of the relatively low ceiling tbh, the on-ball dynamism just isn't there for me, but he's going to be a really useful player just based on his length, defense and playmaking alone...anything more he gives you offensively outside spot up shooting is icing on the cake.

[Roddy B for 3]

Haliburton and Lonzo remind me of 2011 Jason Kidd. Can get to the rim, but maybe not finish well, smart enough to pull it back out if the shot is not there.

Jason Kidd was a PG who needed time to get his set shot off.

By 2011 Kidd was primarily a perimeter ball mover with really good defense against slower/bigger wings, he was an excellent ball pusher in transition, a set shot 3pt threat and occasionally could straight line drive to the hoop (although he almost never attempted to score, he would almost always dribble the ball back out to the perimeter and set up a new play).

Lo zo and Haliburton seem similar in the sense that both look like they should shoot set shoots, make smart passes, lead great transition offeneses, occasionally drive to the hoop (if the land is WIDE open), and D up wings

Obviously there are diffences between 2011Kidd/Haliburton/Lonzo, but D up wings, shoot set shoots, smart passers, and weak at driving to the hoop.

Those are role players.

Obviously Jason Kidd is on the short list for GOAT BBall IQ, but Lonzo and Haliburton both have extremely high IQ as well.

[Roddy B for 3]

I value "safety" VERY high early in the lotto. So a guy like Haliburton or Stewart are higher for me probably than most others.

[CP War Hawks]

TH has extreme length with skills to match. Overcomes his lack of explosiveness with those traits.

Just needs to add some decent mass, checks a lot of my boxes. Worried about lack of lift on the shot, but his extreme length allows for higher release point and lower handles than normal.

[The-Power]

I think Haliburton this year has shown greater variety in his game. Lonzo Ball, for instance, shot either 3's or finished directly at the rim – Haliburton this year shows more in the short- and mid-range area. Also, 50% of Lonzo's shots at the rim were assisted compared to only 30% for Haliburton. That gives me more confidence in his on-ball creation ability.

Also, I think a lot of people underrate past improvement. Players who have shown the ability to improve from year to year are players I'm confident in keeping up the trajectory. So whenever a college player comes back and improves noticeably, I pay attention – and I'm concerned when they come back and appear to not have improved. Haliburton is a player who has shown the capability to improve in the past, not least demonstrated by the jump he made this year that not many anticipated. He jumped from 9% USG to 21% – that is an incredible increase that required a lot of work I presume, not least mentally.

He also outplayed anybody on Team USA in FIBA U19 in the summer. He was one of the older guys on the team, sure, but that team still had guys like Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Scottie Barnes on it. There is a reason he played the most minutes of anybody on that team, and that's because the coaches thought he was the most important player to make the team go. To me, that counts for something. It shows me that even – or especially – next to extremely talented players, it is Haliburton whose contributions are valued this much by the coaches.

His shot looks funky, not doubt. But unlike Lonzo, he has shown that it works at the college level for two years now. This is a piece of information that we should use and something we did not have for Lonzo. Haliburton has also shown flashes of a pull-up game. It's in its infant stages but something we haven't seen before, which bodes well for future improvement. I like his own comments on his shot, by the way:

“If you think my shot now is ugly, my shot when I first got to high school started at my knees,” he said with a laugh. “I don’t really care what people say about my shot as long as it’s going in. I know I’m going to have to alter it. I’m altering it right now just because it’s going to be tougher with being guarded more. But this is how I’ve hooped my whole life. And it’s been working. It’s just now about repetition and putting time into it.”

https://www.theringer.com/2019/11/27/20984769/tyrese-haliburton-iowa-state-nba-draft-prospect

Confident, but knowing that he has to alter it and willing to do that, further evidenced by his altered mechanics in the past. His ability to make jump shots will determine his ceiling, no question. But I don't think it will determine whether he'll be a positive impact player or not. I am much more concerned about his free throw rate (and, related to that, his thin frame) than his ability to knock down open shots.

Lastly, another aspect about him that I like is his humility. Take this quote:

“I almost forced him to go onto a shoe circuit. We lost five kids. And [Haliburton] was like, ‘Bryan, you taught me everything.’ He wasn’t going to leave. And I couldn’t believe it. But he wasn’t going to leave,” Johnikin told me, still sounding a little incredulous all these years later.

https://www.theringer.com/2019/11/27/20984769/tyrese-haliburton-iowa-state-nba-draft-prospect

That not only makes me like him as a person but I believe this kind of attitude actually contributes to the value he brings to his teams. He values relationships, he identifies with his teams and he is not looking for quick exposure. Those are traits I value in prospects because they make the players much more likely to succeed in team settings.

I understand people's concerns regarding him, I really do. I have them myself. But the fact that he has improved this much and leads his team in such an impressive fashion while being tailor-made for playing in a team environment – also next to other talented players – means a lot to me.

People point to Lonzo and say: beware. But they seem to forget Lonzo was the 2nd ranked prospect in his draft. I'm not saying we should disregard Lonzo's struggles, but he still had great ability that made him this highly touted. And I just disagree that a single player's struggle should greatly devalue similar players that follow. Perhaps the archetype is problematic, but perhaps Lonzo just didn't improve or adapt sufficiently while the next player might? If you had Lonzo in your top 3 in 2017, believe Haliburton is similarly talented but rank him way outside the top 5 in a weaker draft then I believe that's an overreaction; and if Lonzo Ball was in this draft, I'd draft him in the top 5 again and count on a better development curve. It's not like we're talking about a stacked top 5, after all.

[Jamaaliver]

Incredibly insightful stuff, man.

Thanks.

[No-Man]

Haliburton barely gets to the rim though, 27% is pitiful still for a lead-Guard, he is kinda like Mikal in that sense, I just think, like with Lonzo, that he is a connecting wing and not a PG, unless you have a primary creator elsewhere (but then dunno if you draft him top5).

I understand liking him, being higher on the type of player he is or what have you (Lonzo had some things going for him that Hali does not also, even if I'd agree that Hali has a tad more wiggle).

I buy 0 into being personable or the FIBA stuff really, that kinda makes judgement murkier to me and brings up playing favourites.

I like Haliburton, got him firmly top10 I just have a hard time justifying him top5 in any class considering his limitations and the type of player he is, even if improves and continues to do so (he is a top3 player in college this season with as good a case as any for being the best as a young sopho), it's near impossible for me to get there.

I know that Cole Anthony requires a ton of projecting, or that Tyrese Maxey has not put it together, or what have you, Avdija's scoring comes and goes, but those players have a baseline for upside that I do not see with Haliburton.

Regarding the archetype, we have plenty of proof to know that it is problematic now, and honestly we did before Lonzo.

[Jamaaliver]

Haliburton barely gets to the rim though, 27% is pitiful still for a lead-Guard, he is kinda like Mikal in that sense, I just think, like with Lonzo, that he is a connecting wing and not a PG, unless you have a primary creator elsewhere (but then dunno if you draft him top5).

Any thoughts on drafting Halliburton to an Atlanta Hawks team in need of a secondary creator beside (behind) Trae Young?

[No-Man]

Haliburton barely gets to the rim though, 27% is pitiful still for a lead-Guard, he is kinda like Mikal in that sense, I just think, like with Lonzo, that he is a connecting wing and not a PG, unless you have a primary creator elsewhere (but then dunno if you draft him top5).

Any thoughts on drafting Halliburton to an Atlanta Hawks team in need of a secondary creator beside (behind) Trae Young?

I'd stick to Huerter, who I think is a better long-term prospect than Hali

But sure, why not, the Hawks need backcourt help even with Kevin and you probably can play Trae, Hali and Huerter together at times

Obviously, there are guys I like more for ATL, but 3 of my top6 ranked players are pretty hard to play with Trae esp on D (esp Nico and Anthony) so... if they get the pick4 and the short-end of the stick there, it could be a possibility

I'd much rather have Edwards, Avdija and LaMelo than Haliburton though, if possible

[Marcus]

Haliburton barely gets to the rim though, 27% is pitiful still for a lead-Guard, he is kinda like Mikal in that sense, I just think, like with Lonzo, that he is a connecting wing and not a PG, unless you have a primary creator elsewhere (but then dunno if you draft him top5).

Any thoughts on drafting Halliburton to an Atlanta Hawks team in need of a secondary creator beside (behind) Trae Young?

I'd stick to Huerter, who I think is a better long-term prospect than Hali

But sure, why not, the Hawks need backcourt help even with Kevin and you probably can play Trae, Hali and Huerter together at times

Obviously, there are guys I like more for ATL, but 3 of my top6 ranked players are pretty hard to play with Trae esp on D (esp Nico and Anthony) so... if they get the pick4 and the short-end of the stick there, it could be a possibility

I'd much rather have Edwards, Avdija and LaMelo than Haliburton though, if possible

how do you see Melo fitting next to Trae?

[Jamaaliver]

how do you see Melo fitting next to Trae?

Poorly. Very poorly. They both are ball dominant, questionable-shooting, poor-defending lead guards. It would be a catastrophe...

Spoiler:

From the Athletic in November:

...what do you think about LaMelo Ball for this team. Long and athletic, but gives this team its desperately needed second playmaker behind Trae. Do you think Atlanta would consider him or does he bring too much “baggage” with him? — Andy L.

“So, my immediate reaction to Trae/LaMelo in the backcourt is probably no. In large part, that’s because there’s only one ball to go around. In the case of both Young and Ball, their best skill is their ability to break down defenders with a ball-screen and create plays via the pass out of it. Both of these guys are primary lead ballhandlers. By drafting Ball and placing him next to Young, you’d be taking the ball out of Melo’s hands more and asking to play a secondary playmaker role. That would, realistically, artificially deflate his value because you’d be having him do less of what he does best. Therefore, if you’re going to put someone in a secondary playmaking role next to Young as a primary playmaker, you’d probably want someone whose skills translate a bit more into an off-ball role so that you can get the most out of that guy. In large part, next to Young, I think the Hawks will want their secondary playmaker to be able to shoot it. That’ll open up more space for Young, and will help the offense flow a bit better. If there is one concern about Ball on offense, it’s the consistency of the jumper and the shot selection decision-making. And defensively, there is a real chance that a backcourt of Young and Ball would be an abject disaster.

“Ultimately, I think a big part of this is that I don’t evaluate Ball as being the best player available in this class. Some scouts around the league certainly are there. But I’m not quite there yet, at least. And yet, if the Hawks are one of those teams to think Ball is just that special, I think there is kind of an interesting argument for taking him and just rolling with it. Part of such a high-level evaluation of Ball would revolve around believing that his natural touch will allow him to become a good shooter in time. That would allow him to slide into more of a secondary creator role. There is a reasonable case for such an argument. Additionally, I’m a big fan of teams that just have a ton of really strong decision-makers. Getting a lot of players who make decisions split-seconds faster than their opposition is a real marginal advantage league-wide. In Ball and Young, the Hawks would basically have two basketball savants at their disposal creating offense all over the floor for their teammates.

“That argument is somewhat compelling to me, and if the Hawks ended up somewhere in the fifth-through-eighth range and Ball was still on the board, I’d get just trying to stack talent and seeing what happens. But if they end up higher than that, I think there are probably better options for them.”

[The-Power]

Haliburton barely gets to the rim though, 27% is pitiful still for a lead-Guard

The last thing I want to imply is that Haliburton is a flawless scorer or without clear holes in his game. So I agree, it is a concern along with free throw rate, thin frame and the pull-up jumper.

Still, that number itself does not really concern me. For starters, it has gone up from 22% last year. So Haliburton increased his usage while simultaneously increasing the share of shots at the rim. That's a very good time. Moreover, 27% really isn't pitiful at all in comparison. Cole Anthony is at 22%, Anthony Edwards 28%, Mannion at 14% (!), Tre Jones at 30%. D'Angelo Russell was at 22%. Nothing wrong with 27% for a lead Guard at all.

Now, I don't know about the accuracy of these numbers; I don't know the non-transition numbers and I'm aware that is doesn't take into account overall usage, driving ability etc. But if you find find 27% pitiful and a concern then you should be really concerned about Mannion, and not as high on Anthony and Edwards either.

I buy 0 into being personable or the FIBA stuff really, that kinda makes judgement murkier to me and brings up playing favourites.

I think FIBA play is a valuable piece of information. You play next to other top prospects and if you are entrusted with a considerable role and you find a way to impact the game with a lower than usual usage, that's definitely a plus.

Regarding personality, I understand the hesitation. Still, I would contend that personality should be a considerable factor in the scouting process because it is relevant. It concerns work ethic, willingness to adapt, to integrate, commitment to team basketball, priority on winning etc. Now, we can only see bits and pieces, so it's tough to judge from afar and shouldn't be our main focus. But if I have prospects in the same tier, I definitely try to look at these kind of things because I firmly believe that they matter.

Doesn't help that I'm still burned from the Josh Jackson fiasco.

Regarding the archetype, we have plenty of proof to know that it is problematic now, and honestly we did before Lonzo.

Care to elaborate a bit on which players you have in mind?

I know that I'm super skeptical of athletic scoring PGs with a suspect jumper or poor-shooting lead Guards in general (in recent years for instance Mudiay, Duval, Fox and Smith that I was much lower on than many) but I wouldn't put Haliburton in that group. So what players are you looking at when you say that we have plenty of proof that his archetype is problematic before Lonzo? Genuinely curious.

[The-Power]

Daniel Oturu just had a 20/20 game. I like him but can't quite decide how to rank him. Thoughts? Where do you rank him among other bigs in this class?

[clyde21]

Oturu is my guy, best PNR big in the class IMO

[No-Man]

Any thoughts on drafting Halliburton to an Atlanta Hawks team in need of a secondary creator beside (behind) Trae Young?

I'd stick to Huerter, who I think is a better long-term prospect than Hali

But sure, why not, the Hawks need backcourt help even with Kevin and you probably can play Trae, Hali and Huerter together at times

Obviously, there are guys I like more for ATL, but 3 of my top6 ranked players are pretty hard to play with Trae esp on D (esp Nico and Anthony) so... if they get the pick4 and the short-end of the stick there, it could be a possibility

I'd much rather have Edwards, Avdija and LaMelo than Haliburton though, if possible

how do you see Melo fitting next to Trae?

Not great Bob, BUT at that point you just want the best talent, Trae also gonna need to be a more willing and better off-ball player to fully exercise his might