Official 2020 Mets Thread, p. 50

[newyorker4ever]

Apparently Mets are looking to trade Cespedes?

I was looking forward to bringing him back; but now I'm wondering if he is pissed the Mets restructured his deal?

This would actually be a good move, which i said on here or the other Mets board i get on, but you don't just give him away with his salary being cut down to what it is now. He's actually worth getting something in return with his new salary especially if he's traded to an AL team where he can mostly DH along with playing some OF. I also wouldn't mind keeping him now that his salary is cut down so low, but my worry is if we keep him then he's gonna have to play the OF and the guy just had surgery on both feet and whatever surgery he had to fix the broken ankle from supposedly stepping in a hole. So is he worth trying to play him in the OF and hoping he doesn't hurt either foot again when running around trying to catch or get to balls? I don't think it is if we can get something in a trade for him that will help us.

The last player i remember having surgery on both feet was Troy Tulowitski who's never been able to stay healthy since.

[Stannis]

Apparently Mets are looking to trade Cespedes?

I was looking forward to bringing him back; but now I'm wondering if he is pissed the Mets restructured his deal?

This would actually be a good move, which i said on here or the other Mets board i get on, but you don't just give him away with his salary being cut down to what it is now. He's actually worth getting something in return with his new salary especially if he's traded to an AL team where he can mostly DH along with playing some OF. I also wouldn't mind keeping him now that his salary is cut down so low, but my worry is if we keep him then he's gonna have to play the OF and the guy just had surgery on both feet and whatever surgery he had to fix the broken ankle from supposedly stepping in a hole. So is he worth trying to play him in the OF and hoping he doesn't hurt either foot again when running around trying to catch or get to balls? I don't think it is if we can get something in a trade for him that will help us.

The last player i remember having surgery on both feet was Troy Tulowitski who's never been able to stay healthy since.

But what can the Mets really get? I'm guessing a C rated prospect or two.

With the salary cut, I feel it's a low risk/high reward if we keep him. And low risk/low reward if we trade him.

[newyorker4ever]

Apparently Mets are looking to trade Cespedes?

I was looking forward to bringing him back; but now I'm wondering if he is pissed the Mets restructured his deal?

This would actually be a good move, which i said on here or the other Mets board i get on, but you don't just give him away with his salary being cut down to what it is now. He's actually worth getting something in return with his new salary especially if he's traded to an AL team where he can mostly DH along with playing some OF. I also wouldn't mind keeping him now that his salary is cut down so low, but my worry is if we keep him then he's gonna have to play the OF and the guy just had surgery on both feet and whatever surgery he had to fix the broken ankle from supposedly stepping in a hole. So is he worth trying to play him in the OF and hoping he doesn't hurt either foot again when running around trying to catch or get to balls? I don't think it is if we can get something in a trade for him that will help us.

The last player i remember having surgery on both feet was Troy Tulowitski who's never been able to stay healthy since.

But what can the Mets really get? I'm guessing a C rated prospect or two.

With the salary cut, I feel it's a low risk/high reward if we keep him. And low risk/low reward if we trade him.

If an AL team believes he can hit 40+ HR's being mostly their DH and could play some OF or even 1B then i think taking on his new contract is worth something.

[HarthorneWingo]

This would actually be a good move, which i said on here or the other Mets board i get on, but you don't just give him away with his salary being cut down to what it is now. He's actually worth getting something in return with his new salary especially if he's traded to an AL team where he can mostly DH along with playing some OF. I also wouldn't mind keeping him now that his salary is cut down so low, but my worry is if we keep him then he's gonna have to play the OF and the guy just had surgery on both feet and whatever surgery he had to fix the broken ankle from supposedly stepping in a hole. So is he worth trying to play him in the OF and hoping he doesn't hurt either foot again when running around trying to catch or get to balls? I don't think it is if we can get something in a trade for him that will help us.

The last player i remember having surgery on both feet was Troy Tulowitski who's never been able to stay healthy since.

But what can the Mets really get? I'm guessing a C rated prospect or two.

With the salary cut, I feel it's a low risk/high reward if we keep him. And low risk/low reward if we trade him.

If an AL team believes he can hit 40+ HR's being mostly their DH and could play some OF or even 1B then i think taking on his new contract is worth something.

We won’t know the answer to that question until spring training. And if he’s hitting rockets out of the park, would we want to trade him? I guess it’ll come down to whether he can still play defense.

[mpharris36]

im keeping Cespedes on a 6 mm guarunteed contract with 14 mm in incentives in a contract year.

He wont play everyday but you could get him 100 games or so he will be huge as additional right handed power to Alonso.

[HarthorneWingo]

im keeping Cespedes on a 6 mm guarunteed contract with 14 mm in incentives in a contract year.

He wont play everyday but you could get him 100 games or so he will be huge as additional right handed power to Alonso.

Sooooo we're trading JD Davis and Dom Smith?

[mpharris36]

im keeping Cespedes on a 6 mm guarunteed contract with 14 mm in incentives in a contract year.

He wont play everyday but you could get him 100 games or so he will be huge as additional right handed power to Alonso.

Sooooo we're trading JD Davis and Dom Smith?

nah maybe Dom. But I think they are keeping JD as a super utility bat vs left handed pitching. When mets face a lefty they can sit nimmo or conforto.

Also Cespedes isn't going to play 3 straight games. So JD will easily get 100 games in this scenario. Plenty for him. 60 or so for cespedes. Spell Conforto a bit and Nimmo.

[HarthorneWingo]

im keeping Cespedes on a 6 mm guarunteed contract with 14 mm in incentives in a contract year.

He wont play everyday but you could get him 100 games or so he will be huge as additional right handed power to Alonso.

Sooooo we're trading JD Davis and Dom Smith?

nah maybe Dom. But I think they are keeping JD as a super utility bat vs left handed pitching. When mets face a lefty they can sit nimmo or conforto.

Also Cespedes isn't going to play 3 straight games. So JD will easily get 100 games in this scenario. Plenty for him. 60 or so for cespedes. Spell Conforto a bit and Nimmo.

Yeah, I don't know about playing JD in RF but I can see where Beltran can do some mixing and matching. If he was just a little better fielder. I really hope that he's working on that this offseason.

[mpharris36]

Sooooo we're trading JD Davis and Dom Smith?

nah maybe Dom. But I think they are keeping JD as a super utility bat vs left handed pitching. When mets face a lefty they can sit nimmo or conforto.

Also Cespedes isn't going to play 3 straight games. So JD will easily get 100 games in this scenario. Plenty for him. 60 or so for cespedes. Spell Conforto a bit and Nimmo.

Yeah, I don't know about playing JD in RF but I can see where Beltran can do some mixing and matching. If he was just a little better fielder. I really hope that he's working on that this offseason.

JD has a strong enough arm. LF or RF it doesn't matter he will be a poor OF with poor range. But if he has a +900 OPS he will get AB's and they will worry about defense late in games.

[HarthorneWingo]

This is surprising. Looks like the Mets are still in on Starling Marte. They're into the "exchanging of names" point in the negotiations.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/latest-on-trade-target-starling-marte-mets-and-pirates-exchanged-names-on-proposed-deal-at-some-point/312179156

[reub]

This is surprising. Looks like the Mets are still in on Starling Marte. They're into the "exchanging of names" point in the negotiations.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/latest-on-trade-target-starling-marte-mets-and-pirates-exchanged-names-on-proposed-deal-at-some-point/312179156

Followed by the feats of strength?

[HarthorneWingo]

This is surprising. Looks like the Mets are still in on Starling Marte. They're into the "exchanging of names" point in the negotiations.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/latest-on-trade-target-starling-marte-mets-and-pirates-exchanged-names-on-proposed-deal-at-some-point/312179156

Followed by the feats of strength?

“C’mon George, wrestle with your old man.”

[reub]

We should showcase Cespedes and then trade his malingering ass in spring training.

[HarthorneWingo]

We should showcase Cespedes and then trade his malingering ass in spring training.

Reub, I don't think he was malingering. On the contrary, he's selfish and stupid. I think he engaged in some kind over very dangerous activity prohibited by his contract and/or the MLBCBA. At least as I understand it, he totally fcked up his ankle and foot, i.e. multiple fractures ... metal plates? screws? ligament/tendon damage? It was severe as were the two heal surgeries which he had put off. Those were no joke either and involved serious surgeries and rehabs. I think he had to do one at a time, as well.

[HarthorneWingo]

Zips advanced stats projections for 2020

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/zips-projections-for-mets-see-dominant-2020-from-edwin-diaz-return-to-form-for-noah-syndergaard/312311994

ZiPS projections for Mets see dominant 2020 from Edwin Diaz, return to form for Noah Syndergaard
The Mets will likely need some bouncebacks if they hope to contend for the NL East title
By Danny Abriano | Dec 30 | 1:23PM

As the Mets look to take the next step, the ZiPS projections for the 2020 season are bullish on their chances.

The annual projections from Dan Szymborski/FanGraphs see a dominant season coming from Edwin Diaz, another tremendous year from Pete Alonso (43 homers and a .551 slugging percentage), and a bounceback from Noah Syndergaard coming.

Their projections for Robinson Cano (.260/.316/.405 triple slash) and Brandon Nimmo (a slugging percentage of just .420) are not as rosy.

While projecting a bounceback season from Diaz and discussing his home run and BABIP rates from 2019, Szymborski writes that "based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn't think Diaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season."

On the surface, Diaz was dismal in 2019, allowing 15 home runs in just 58.0 innings while posting a 5.59 ERA. But a look at some of the advanced numbers tell a different story.

Diaz had a 4.51 FIP/3.07 xFIP in 2019, struck out a still-elite 15.36 batters per nine innings (a better rate than his breakout campaign in 2018), and stranded runners at about the same rate he has during his career.

While he was serving up an obscene amount of home runs in 2019, Diaz was also often dealing with an almost complete inability to harness his slider. That issue was due in part to lowered seams, an issue that could be improved before next season.

For the 2020 season, ZiPS has Diaz resembling his 2018 self much more than his 2019 self, with a 2.98 ERA (2.77 FIP) and 105 strikeouts in 66.3 innings. His home run rate in 2020 is projected to be 1.2 per 9 IP after coming in at a brutal 2.33 per 9 IP in 2019.

ZiPS also anticipates a bounceback season for Jeurys Familia, who they project will have a 3.66 ERA.

The ZiPS numbers for 2020 came out before the signing of Dellin Betances, but it's hard to imagine the Mets' bullpen in 2020 not being a strength if the reality for Diaz and Familia comes close to matching the projections.

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said before the signing of Betances that the team's internal projection systems showed expected improvements for Diaz and Familia in 2020.

As far as Syndergaard is concerned, ZiPS projects him to have a 3.33 ERA while striking out 9.5 per 9 in 2020. That would mean an ERA improvement of nearly a full run from 2019 and Syndergaard having his best strikeout rate since 2017.

Syndergaard pitched better in 2019 than his numbers indicate, with his 3.60 FIP being more representative of his performance than his ERA. So a rebound being projected for him in 2020 shouldn't come as a surprise.

To see the full 2020 ZiPS projections for the Mets, including how Yoenis Cespedes is expected to fare as he tries to come back from nearly two years on the shelf and what Szybmorski thinks of pitching prospect David Peterson, click here.

[reub]

Zips advanced stats projections for 2020

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/zips-projections-for-mets-see-dominant-2020-from-edwin-diaz-return-to-form-for-noah-syndergaard/312311994

ZiPS projections for Mets see dominant 2020 from Edwin Diaz, return to form for Noah Syndergaard
The Mets will likely need some bouncebacks if they hope to contend for the NL East title
By Danny Abriano | Dec 30 | 1:23PM

As the Mets look to take the next step, the ZiPS projections for the 2020 season are bullish on their chances.

The annual projections from Dan Szymborski/FanGraphs see a dominant season coming from Edwin Diaz, another tremendous year from Pete Alonso (43 homers and a .551 slugging percentage), and a bounceback from Noah Syndergaard coming.

Their projections for Robinson Cano (.260/.316/.405 triple slash) and Brandon Nimmo (a slugging percentage of just .420) are not as rosy.

While projecting a bounceback season from Diaz and discussing his home run and BABIP rates from 2019, Szymborski writes that "based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn't think Diaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season."

On the surface, Diaz was dismal in 2019, allowing 15 home runs in just 58.0 innings while posting a 5.59 ERA. But a look at some of the advanced numbers tell a different story.

Diaz had a 4.51 FIP/3.07 xFIP in 2019, struck out a still-elite 15.36 batters per nine innings (a better rate than his breakout campaign in 2018), and stranded runners at about the same rate he has during his career.

While he was serving up an obscene amount of home runs in 2019, Diaz was also often dealing with an almost complete inability to harness his slider. That issue was due in part to lowered seams, an issue that could be improved before next season.

For the 2020 season, ZiPS has Diaz resembling his 2018 self much more than his 2019 self, with a 2.98 ERA (2.77 FIP) and 105 strikeouts in 66.3 innings. His home run rate in 2020 is projected to be 1.2 per 9 IP after coming in at a brutal 2.33 per 9 IP in 2019.

ZiPS also anticipates a bounceback season for Jeurys Familia, who they project will have a 3.66 ERA.

The ZiPS numbers for 2020 came out before the signing of Dellin Betances, but it's hard to imagine the Mets' bullpen in 2020 not being a strength if the reality for Diaz and Familia comes close to matching the projections.

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said before the signing of Betances that the team's internal projection systems showed expected improvements for Diaz and Familia in 2020.

As far as Syndergaard is concerned, ZiPS projects him to have a 3.33 ERA while striking out 9.5 per 9 in 2020. That would mean an ERA improvement of nearly a full run from 2019 and Syndergaard having his best strikeout rate since 2017.

Syndergaard pitched better in 2019 than his numbers indicate, with his 3.60 FIP being more representative of his performance than his ERA. So a rebound being projected for him in 2020 shouldn't come as a surprise.

To see the full 2020 ZiPS projections for the Mets, including how Yoenis Cespedes is expected to fare as he tries to come back from nearly two years on the shelf and what Szybmorski thinks of pitching prospect David Peterson, click here.

Well, ZIPSididoodah.

[HarthorneWingo]

[Jeffrey]

Do you think we are asking for a lot?

Diaz, Familia and Betances to return to form.

Noah Syndergard, Wacha and Porcello to return to form.

Cano, Nimmo, Lowrie, and Cespedes to be healthy most of the year.

Alonso, McNeil, and Conforto to continue to take another step.

Looking at this.. I'm hoping 2 of the 3 from each group get back to where they were.

[HarthorneWingo]

Do you think we are asking for a lot?

Diaz, Familia and Betances to return to form.

Noah Syndergard, Wacha and Porcello to return to form.

Cano, Nimmo, Lowrie, and Cespedes to be healthy most of the year.

Alonso, McNeil, and Conforto to continue to take another step.

Looking at this.. I'm hoping 2 of the 3 from each group get back to where they were.

There's a lot that could go wrong. Definitely.

[nykballa2k4]

Do you think we are asking for a lot?

Diaz, Familia and Betances to return to form.

Noah Syndergard, Wacha and Porcello to return to form.

Cano, Nimmo, Lowrie, and Cespedes to be healthy most of the year.

Alonso, McNeil, and Conforto to continue to take another step.

Looking at this.. I'm hoping 2 of the 3 from each group get back to where they were.

In theory if we get 1/2 of that, we are in the WS. The only piece omitted there was DeGrom to continue DeGromming.