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jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast.
jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast put out a new episode today where they ranked the top prospects 23 and under. List was supposed to be top 10 but both guys went over as they felt the players within tier 4 were too close to separate. 2 guys, Nate and Danny, each made separate lists. They were as follows
Nate:
1. Luka - only Tier 1 guy
2. Zion - only Tier 2 guy
3. Trae - start of tier 3
4. Jah
5. Booker - start of tier 4
6. Mitchell
7. Brown
8. Adebayo
9. Ingram
10. Simmons
11. Tatum - end of tier 4
Danny:
1. Luka - only tier 1 guy
2. Zion - only tier 2 guy
3. Trae - start of tier 3
4. Booker
5. Mitchell
6. Tatum
7. Brown - end of tier 3
8. Bam - start tier 4
9. Jah
10. Simmons
11. Turner
12. Ingram
13. Isaac
14. Fox
15. Jaren Jackson - end tier 4
Other notes: Luka is already an MVP level guy. Zion is the only other one they project as having MVP potential. Trae Young could possibly have MVP potential. Nate LOVES Jah. Danny has a few more concerns. They were both concerned with Simmons lack of development. I was surprised he was so low on the list. They view Brown vs Tatum as very close. Interesting since the prevailing logic on this board is that Tatum has the higher ceiling.
TommyPointGawd wrote:jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast.
Definitely an interesting listen. Reflects some of the debates on this board.
I would rather have more Jaylen and Jayson discussions instead of Jaylen vs Jayson. The main take away is the Celtics are the only team with two guys on each list. Wasn't that the goal.
celticfan42487 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast put out a new episode today where they ranked the top prospects 23 and under. List was supposed to be top 10 but both guys went over as they felt the players within tier 4 were too close to separate. 2 guys, Nate and Danny, each made separate lists. They were as follows
Nate:
1. Luka - only Tier 1 guy
2. Zion - only Tier 2 guy
3. Trae - start of tier 3
4. Jah
5. Booker - start of tier 4
6. Mitchell
7. Brown
8. Adebayo
9. Ingram
10. Simmons
11. Tatum - end of tier 4
Danny:
1. Luka - only tier 1 guy
2. Zion - only tier 2 guy
3. Trae - start of tier 3
4. Booker
5. Mitchell
6. Tatum
7. Brown - end of tier 3
8. Bam - start tier 4
9. Jah
10. Simmons
11. Turner
12. Ingram
13. Isaac
14. Fox
15. Jaren Jackson - end tier 4
Other notes: Luka is already an MVP level guy. Zion is the only other one they project as having MVP potential. Trae Young could possibly have MVP potential. Nate LOVES Jah. Danny has a few more concerns. They were both concerned with Simmons lack of development. I was surprised he was so low on the list. They view Brown vs Tatum as very close. Interesting since the prevailing logic on this board is that Tatum has the higher ceiling.
The Ringer did a similar thing and had Tatum higher.
But there is a potential Tatum never develops and is a Rudy Gay type that could make that the wrong call. They are very concerned by the lack of development attacking the rim and that's not a good sign. But it's closer than they would have thought a year ago and will take Tatum for now until we see Tatum's 4th season (when a lot of guys in this era typically break out).
jmr07019 wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast put out a new episode today where they ranked the top prospects 23 and under. List was supposed to be top 10 but both guys went over as they felt the players within tier 4 were too close to separate. 2 guys, Nate and Danny, each made separate lists. They were as follows
Other notes: Luka is already an MVP level guy. Zion is the only other one they project as having MVP potential. Trae Young could possibly have MVP potential. Nate LOVES Jah. Danny has a few more concerns. They were both concerned with Simmons lack of development. I was surprised he was so low on the list. They view Brown vs Tatum as very close. Interesting since the prevailing logic on this board is that Tatum has the higher ceiling.
The Ringer did a similar thing and had Tatum higher.
But there is a potential Tatum never develops and is a Rudy Gay type that could make that the wrong call. They are very concerned by the lack of development attacking the rim and that's not a good sign. But it's closer than they would have thought a year ago and will take Tatum for now until we see Tatum's 4th season (when a lot of guys in this era typically break out).
I would bet on Tatum's long term potential over Brown's myself but ultimately I think anyone after Luka could end up the best of the group. They all have weaknesses that need to be improved upon. Defense for Booker, Trae. Efficiency for Mitchell. Jump shot for Simmons. etc.
celticfan42487 wrote:reload141 wrote:Also, when we don’t execute the proper play (as in the opposing team stops it) usually with 5-8 seconds left is not enough time to run another play on the fly.
So the ball gets dumped to Tatum and the team fully expects him to ISO as they believe he is the most capable on the team to do it.
Give it time, he’ll get there it’s a part of his growth.
Yeah, I haven't said it in this thread. But I have in a good number of game threads especially after another Tatum 2/13 kind of games and I just want it known, this is fully apart of Tatum's growth. Smart sucked on offense till his 4th year, Brown is breaking out in his 4th year.
On the team currently Kemba is the only player that is good at ISO hero ball.
But besides Kemba only Tatum is able to actually DO it.
Jaylen may be shooting from 40% from 3, but the type of 3s Tatum takes besides Kemba (and if Hayward was healthy him too) Tatum is the only one capable of DOING a step back 3 and making it with consistency.
I want Tatum to keep on doing him, he just sucks at it atm. This is a growing phase he has to work through. And with repetition it may get to the point he changes nothing but the shots start falling. With the years going on maybe he gets better at pushing off on his drives, maybe he decides to go to full floater mode on drives and starts converting.
But to the eye test, in game it's clear. Brown is maximizing who he is this year, but Tatum's ball handling and separation moves and prolific 3 point shooting gives him a much higher ceiling. And it's okay at 21 to still be figuring it out. He just needs one goto unstopable driving move and that will open up everything for him, the equivelent of when Hayward was healthy this year drive, stop, spin Dirkish fade away leaving his man at least 2 people away from him jumper.
I'd also love if we made it more of a focus on our offense to try to get Tatum on the block whenever he has a size advantage against his man. I've been loving the last 5 games we've been seeing it more, but ever since he was a rookie when Tatum has a PG or SG that isn't that big and he plays in the post he almost always converts or gets a foul. That literatlly may be the most money shot he has in in his game right now
celticfan42487 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:
The Ringer did a similar thing and had Tatum higher.
But there is a potential Tatum never develops and is a Rudy Gay type that could make that the wrong call. They are very concerned by the lack of development attacking the rim and that's not a good sign. But it's closer than they would have thought a year ago and will take Tatum for now until we see Tatum's 4th season (when a lot of guys in this era typically break out).
I would bet on Tatum's long term potential over Brown's myself but ultimately I think anyone after Luka could end up the best of the group. They all have weaknesses that need to be improved upon. Defense for Booker, Trae. Efficiency for Mitchell. Jump shot for Simmons. etc.
Yeah fair. I was surprised to see the list you gave (just subscribed to listen to the podcast during my commute tomorrow) how low Jaren Jackson was rated. He just seems to have so much potential and is already a fantastic 3 and D big with high efficiency, good ppg total and a little bit of foul issues.
I'd figure he'd be rated higher after his rookie year combined with this year being a shocking 39% 3 point shooter with over 6 3APG. Like... that's pretty much what Jalen Brown is doing for us from 3 for comparison.
celticfan42487 wrote:Yeah I think next year for Tatum is his make or break season. If he doesn't break out then we need to rewrite our expectaitons for him.
Like you said either the Paul Pierce route or the Tobias Harris route. Although sometimes players actually regress as they get older (see Simmons, Ben for a small regression. endless others for major ones).
bucknersrevenge wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:Yeah I think next year for Tatum is his make or break season. If he doesn't break out then we need to rewrite our expectaitons for him.
Like you said either the Paul Pierce route or the Tobias Harris route. Although sometimes players actually regress as they get older (see Simmons, Ben for a small regression. endless others for major ones).
I have trouble calling anything "make or break" for a 22 year old kid. Especially someone with his skills. We've seen so much of these kids that it's easy to forget, His prime years when the maturation of his game and his body start to intersect; that's at least 3-4 years away.
celticfan42487 wrote:bucknersrevenge wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:Yeah I think next year for Tatum is his make or break season. If he doesn't break out then we need to rewrite our expectaitons for him.
Like you said either the Paul Pierce route or the Tobias Harris route. Although sometimes players actually regress as they get older (see Simmons, Ben for a small regression. endless others for major ones).
I have trouble calling anything "make or break" for a 22 year old kid. Especially someone with his skills. We've seen so much of these kids that it's easy to forget, His prime years when the maturation of his game and his body start to intersect; that's at least 3-4 years away.
Just like "potential" can be read as the highest possible ceiling no matter how unlikely.
The vast majority of all-star level players will have had their breakout season by Tatum's next season (some even in their 2nd or 3rd years).
His 4th year in the league is a reasonable timeline for that to happen.
At some point you have to adjust expectations to be able to move strategically. And that is even the timeline the Dun'c On podcast takes. It's just calculating.
Even if Tatum never improves from where he is right now that's still a very good starter. Tobias Harris kind of level who as I think we're all aware of was just given the max.
TommyPointGawd wrote:jmr07019 wrote:Dunc'd on podcast.
I would rather have more Jaylen and Jayson discussions instead of Jaylen vs Jayson. The main take away is the Celtics are the only team with two guys on each list. Wasn't that the goal.
bucknersrevenge wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:bucknersrevenge wrote:
I have trouble calling anything "make or break" for a 22 year old kid. Especially someone with his skills. We've seen so much of these kids that it's easy to forget, His prime years when the maturation of his game and his body start to intersect; that's at least 3-4 years away.
Just like "potential" can be read as the highest possible ceiling no matter how unlikely.
The vast majority of all-star level players will have had their breakout season by Tatum's next season (some even in their 2nd or 3rd years).
His 4th year in the league is a reasonable timeline for that to happen.
At some point you have to adjust expectations to be able to move strategically. And that is even the timeline the Dun'c On podcast takes. It's just calculating.
Even if Tatum never improves from where he is right now that's still a very good starter. Tobias Harris kind of level who as I think we're all aware of was just given the max.
Maybe a defining of what the "make" and the "break" in make or break season should be defined. I'll say this: I don't think he will have reached his ceiling after next season.
celticfan42487 wrote:bucknersrevenge wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:
Just like "potential" can be read as the highest possible ceiling no matter how unlikely.
The vast majority of all-star level players will have had their breakout season by Tatum's next season (some even in their 2nd or 3rd years).
His 4th year in the league is a reasonable timeline for that to happen.
At some point you have to adjust expectations to be able to move strategically. And that is even the timeline the Dun'c On podcast takes. It's just calculating.
Even if Tatum never improves from where he is right now that's still a very good starter. Tobias Harris kind of level who as I think we're all aware of was just given the max.
Maybe a defining of what the "make" and the "break" in make or break season should be defined. I'll say this: I don't think he will have reached his ceiling after next season.
That's nice. And when you do you actually change your opinion on prospects and their likely career outcome.
It doesn't matter if someone has a high ceiling and 0.0001% of reaching that outcome. It would be stupid to make decisions concerning yourself with something so unlikley to happen, ect.
And you can't just say you never make those judgements and wait till they're 26 or something when they're fully formed. Because we are not Los Angeles who can just sit there and have MVP candidates force their way to our teams after signing a max like Paul George. Or force their way to our team by trade demands like Anthony Davis. Or by winning a championship for another team and coming there in free agency like LeBron or Kawhi.
You have to take chances, you have to project forward and take risks in order to hopefully hit on more bets than your competition. In the end this is nothing more than an asset management game in an unfair environment. And we are the underdogs in this universe because we are not LA or NY.
It's also okay if you don't want to play that game as a fan and not be concerned with GM moves. But that's going to be a lot of the topic of discussion for my posts. But plenty of people are just fine being that way and then complaining when trades are made that makes the team win less games because they're not looking at it from the full picture perspective. But they are no less of fans because of it and whatever makes one happy is the right choice.
bucknersrevenge wrote:celticfan42487 wrote:bucknersrevenge wrote:
Maybe a defining of what the "make" and the "break" in make or break season should be defined. I'll say this: I don't think he will have reached his ceiling after next season.
That's nice. And when you do you actually change your opinion on prospects and their likely career outcome.
It doesn't matter if someone has a high ceiling and 0.0001% of reaching that outcome. It would be stupid to make decisions concerning yourself with something so unlikley to happen, ect.
And you can't just say you never make those judgements and wait till they're 26 or something when they're fully formed. Because we are not Los Angeles who can just sit there and have MVP candidates force their way to our teams after signing a max like Paul George. Or force their way to our team by trade demands like Anthony Davis. Or by winning a championship for another team and coming there in free agency like LeBron or Kawhi.
You have to take chances, you have to project forward and take risks in order to hopefully hit on more bets than your competition. In the end this is nothing more than an asset management game in an unfair environment. And we are the underdogs in this universe because we are not LA or NY.
It's also okay if you don't want to play that game as a fan and not be concerned with GM moves. But that's going to be a lot of the topic of discussion for my posts. But plenty of people are just fine being that way and then complaining when trades are made that makes the team win less games because they're not looking at it from the full picture perspective. But they are no less of fans because of it and whatever makes one happy is the right choice.I'm not here to poke a stick at anyone's fandom. Root however you root. Discuss whatever you want to discuss. I'm not hatin. For me, I just have trouble calling a 22 year old a finished product is all. I will say though that since you introduced the phrase, I am curious as to what "make" looks like for you and what "break" looks like for you just to further understand your rationale.