Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[dckingsfan]

At 20 years of age, Troy Brown is already way way better than Justise Winslow. Not that it's hard to be better than that guy. Most players in the league are.

Fortunately, at 20 years of age, Troy is also quite good.

Btw, we don't have a "high second rounder" in the 2020 draft. Ernie p#ssed it away. But, we do have Chicago's high second rounder. &, I hope, a R2 pick that Tommy buys from someone.

I think that is the point. And I think that he is already a good "fit" in that he is an excellent defensive rebounder from the SF position. Given our current defensive rebounding woes from the PF position - that is super important. Add to that his TS% is solid for a 20 year old and his 3 point shot "seems like" it is coming along - make him (as you would say) quite good with a high probability to get better (or much better).

In short, I agree that we hold onto Troy. In fact, unless we grab another high volume defensive rebounder - it is almost a must.

Okay, I shouldn't say this because it is negative but... players like Brown and what could have been Brandon Clarke would have made a Bryant/Wagner grouping even more palatable.

I'm not sure Brown is "way way" better than Winslow right now. I think of it as closer to a wash - Winslow seems better on defense and Brown gets you more on offense. But that doesn't matter for this exercise. If the consensus is that it is somewhere between a wash and Brown is way way better, the trade doesn't make sense. Only if Winslow is head and shoulders above Brown would trading Bertans for Winslow be worth it.

Also, I was thinking of the more favorable of the Chicago/Memphis pick we are getting as the high second rounder.

Agreed on the trade for Winslow. Although I think that Brown is already the better defender (note that in January he is averaging near to 10 rebounds per game, shooting .389 from 3 and has a TS of .576. Winslow can't sniff that.

2020 second round draft pick from Chicago or Memphis:
Washington will receive the more favorable of Chicago's 2020 2nd round pick protected for selections 56-60 and Memphis' 2020 2nd round pick (via Chicago) protected for selections 56-60 and Chicago will receive the less favorable of the two; if only the Chicago pick falls within its protected range, then Washington will instead receive the Memphis pick; if only the Memphis pick falls within its protected range, then Washington will instead receive the Chicago pick and Memphis' obligation will be extinguished (if both picks fall within their protected ranges and therefore neither is conveyable, then the obligations will be extinguished) [Chicago-Memphis, 1/3/2019; Chicago-Houston, 1/7/2019; Chicago-Washington, 7/7/2019]

[The Consiglieri]

If you could get Porter Jr for Bertans, you have to do that. Porter Jr's ceiling is as high as any player in this coming draft.

The problem is there is like literally no chance in hell we could ever pull that off Why on earth would they be that stupid? Granted every once in a while teams make just epic idiot trades, but I can't see a universe in which they would do this.

As for the concerns w/him as a prospect. He basically hadn't played since high school until this winter, so when has he had the chance to develop all those tools? He may never develop them, but lets remember he's basically been MIA for years, totally unable to develop any kind of understanding of anything through experience. He was a mega steal for them in '18, so, so, so very bitter we weren't in position to grab him, or too stupid to trade up to do it. Really painful to see him and SGA go just a couple of slots before we were picking.

[The Consiglieri]

At 20 years of age, Troy Brown is already way way better than Justise Winslow. Not that it's hard to be better than that guy. Most players in the league are....

I'm not sure Brown is "way way" better than Winslow right now. I think of it as closer to a wash - Winslow seems better on defense and Brown gets you more on offense. But that doesn't matter for this exercise. If the consensus is that it is somewhere between a wash and Brown is way way better, the trade doesn't make sense. Only if Winslow is head and shoulders above Brown would trading Bertans for Winslow be worth it...

Your overall point about the trade is correct. However, if you think Winslow is anywhere near as good as Brown, if you think it's at all close, I'm guessing that you aren't looking at the numbers.

They aren't even close. Especially as Brown is every bit as good as Winslow defensively.

For sure Troy is tons better on offense -- he scores more points while taking fewer shots/FTAs.

The thing is... he also gets more defensive boards, more offensive boards, commits way fewer turnovers, gets way more steals, & fouls a lot less.

Then there's the fact that Winslow is almost 3.5 years older than Troy.

Just to be clear, when he was drafted I thought Winslow would be a stud. But, I was wrong.

OTOH, I did not think Troy was a good draft pick. I made that very clear last year. Wrong again! :)

Me either. Kinda feel like the Wall injury has been a blessing in disguise in some ways. It's allowed us to really max out opportunities for the kiddies this year, figuring out which guys are legit pieces/role players, and which are kinda journeyman detritus. Really happy to see Brown blossoming as I also hated the pick at the time and wasn't happy last year either. Keep blossoming.

[dckingsfan]

I'm not sure Brown is "way way" better than Winslow right now. I think of it as closer to a wash - Winslow seems better on defense and Brown gets you more on offense. But that doesn't matter for this exercise. If the consensus is that it is somewhere between a wash and Brown is way way better, the trade doesn't make sense. Only if Winslow is head and shoulders above Brown would trading Bertans for Winslow be worth it...

Your overall point about the trade is correct. However, if you think Winslow is anywhere near as good as Brown, if you think it's at all close, I'm guessing that you aren't looking at the numbers.

They aren't even close. Especially as Brown is every bit as good as Winslow defensively.

For sure Troy is tons better on offense -- he scores more points while taking fewer shots/FTAs.

The thing is... he also gets more defensive boards, more offensive boards, commits way fewer turnovers, gets way more steals, & fouls a lot less.

Then there's the fact that Winslow is almost 3.5 years older than Troy.

Just to be clear, when he was drafted I thought Winslow would be a stud. But, I was wrong.

OTOH, I did not think Troy was a good draft pick. I made that very clear last year. Wrong again! :)

Me either. Kinda feel like the Wall injury has been a blessing in disguise in some ways. It's allowed us to really max out opportunities for the kiddies this year, figuring out which guys are legit pieces/role players, and which are kinda journeyman detritus. Really happy to see Brown blossoming as I also hated the pick at the time and wasn't happy last year either. Keep blossoming.

Well - I thought he would be more of a guard - so there is that...

[Illmatic12]

No interest in Justise Winslow, not only has his development plateaued but he’s also injury prone. Never played 70+ games since his rookie season and already missed a bunch of time this season with various injuries.

I like the idea of adding players in the Winslow mold (big defensive wing who hustles, can handle the ball) but given his salary and injury history there are better options to go after.

[Illmatic12]

To be picky, the Wiz get the higher of the Griz or Bulls 2nd rounders from the Sato trade - which will likely be the Bulls' pick.

Perhaps that could be used in a Bertans trade to get a slightly higher pick.

Maybe. But the Bulls pick is likely to be the #35-7, & you can often get quite a good player at that spot. E.g., right now, nbadraftroom has Tyler Bey going #35.

Now... there'll be a lot of changes in the next 6 months, obviously! Still we will need to add multiple young players. If we do trade Bertans, we only have 9 guys coming back -- 10 if we assume Garrison Mathews will return (wch I hope we do assume!). So, there's room for our R1, Chicago's R2, whatever picks we get for Bertans if he's traded. Lots of room.

All the more, in fact, if we retain Bertans at, say, $15m, putting us at @$114m in salaries for 11 guys. Add a high R1 pick & the Bulls R2 pick, & that's @$120m for 13 players. Reasonably comfortable assuming the lux tax at @$136m next year. A good spot to be, as it would give us some nice flexibility.

Indeed things will change. Remember last year someone saying we'd have only 4 players returning, and we ended up this offseason having too many players to keep someone like Jemerio Jones.

This thought popped in my head as well, granted I’m not an expert on roster spots, two-way conversions etc but I’m wondering if they’ll have enough spots to keep all the guys they like for next season.

Wall
Beal
Bonga
Rui
Bryant

Ish
McRae
Brown Jr
Bertans
Wagner

Payton
Schofield
AP
Mathews

Those are 14 players who the organization seems to be interested in longterm (ie beyond this season)

We also have our 2020 1st in the high lottery and the better of a Chicago/Memphis 2nd (which should also be in the range to draft a legit contributor)

That gives us 16 names before we even get into free agency.. Sheppard has said he typically wants 14 on the active roster. It’s going to be interesting to see how they sort this out - if there was going to be a consolidation trade I wonder what that would look like .

Or I wonder if they’ll take a draft & stash with the 2nd rounder?? The 18yo Aleksej Pokuševski from Olympiacos is rising up boards and seems slated for the early 2nd round. Versatile two-way forward who stands at 7’0. They could bring him and Issuf Sanon over in a few years.

[gambitx777]

Well I think Payton and McRae and admiral are the most expendable. And we have Shannon who's playing well over season and looks like a good option for a bench combo guard.

Maybe. But the Bulls pick is likely to be the #35-7, & you can often get quite a good player at that spot. E.g., right now, nbadraftroom has Tyler Bey going #35.

Now... there'll be a lot of changes in the next 6 months, obviously! Still we will need to add multiple young players. If we do trade Bertans, we only have 9 guys coming back -- 10 if we assume Garrison Mathews will return (wch I hope we do assume!). So, there's room for our R1, Chicago's R2, whatever picks we get for Bertans if he's traded. Lots of room.

All the more, in fact, if we retain Bertans at, say, $15m, putting us at @$114m in salaries for 11 guys. Add a high R1 pick & the Bulls R2 pick, & that's @$120m for 13 players. Reasonably comfortable assuming the lux tax at @$136m next year. A good spot to be, as it would give us some nice flexibility.

Indeed things will change. Remember last year someone saying we'd have only 4 players returning, and we ended up this offseason having too many players to keep someone like Jemerio Jones.

This thought popped in my head as well, granted I’m not an expert on roster spots, two-way conversions etc but I’m wondering if they’ll have enough spots to keep all the guys they like for next season.

Wall
Beal
Bonga
Rui
Bryant

Ish
McRae
Brown Jr
Bertans
Wagner

Payton
Schofield
AP
Mathews

Those are 14 players who the organization seems to be interested in longterm (ie beyond this season)

We also have our 2020 1st in the high lottery and the better of a Chicago/Memphis 2nd (which should also be in the range to draft a legit contributor)

That gives us 16 names before we even get into free agency.. Sheppard has said he typically wants 14 on the active roster. It’s going to be interesting to see how they sort this out - if there was going to be a consolidation trade I wonder what that would look like .

Or I wonder if they’ll take a draft & stash with the 2nd rounder?? The 18yo Aleksej Pokuševski from Olympiacos is rising up boards and seems slated for the early 2nd round. Versatile two-way forward who stands at 7’0. They could bring him and Issuf Sanon over in a few years.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Illmatic12]

Well I think Payton and McRae and admiral are the most expendable. And we have Shannon who's playing well over season and looks like a good option for a bench combo guard.

Indeed things will change. Remember last year someone saying we'd have only 4 players returning, and we ended up this offseason having too many players to keep someone like Jemerio Jones.

This thought popped in my head as well, granted I’m not an expert on roster spots, two-way conversions etc but I’m wondering if they’ll have enough spots to keep all the guys they like for next season.

Wall
Beal
Bonga
Rui
Bryant

Ish
McRae
Brown Jr
Bertans
Wagner

Payton
Schofield
AP
Mathews

Those are 14 players who the organization seems to be interested in longterm (ie beyond this season)

We also have our 2020 1st in the high lottery and the better of a Chicago/Memphis 2nd (which should also be in the range to draft a legit contributor)

That gives us 16 names before we even get into free agency.. Sheppard has said he typically wants 14 on the active roster. It’s going to be interesting to see how they sort this out - if there was going to be a consolidation trade I wonder what that would look like .

Or I wonder if they’ll take a draft & stash with the 2nd rounder?? The 18yo Aleksej Pokuševski from Olympiacos is rising up boards and seems slated for the early 2nd round. Versatile two-way forward who stands at 7’0. They could bring him and Issuf Sanon over in a few years.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Who is Shannon ?
Yeah agree those are probably the most expendable names, although I’d argue that a guy like Pasecniks should be cut before McRae who everyone says is their favorite teammate in the locker room.

Also think that Payton’s defensive ability makes him perfect to keep as a specialist vs elite scoring guards like Young , Kemba Walker and the like. If they draft a defender (Okoro/Okongwu) and sign say Nerlens Noel we could see lineups that feature 3 elite defenders on the floor at a time.

[Ruzious]

I was wondering who Shannon is, as well. AP should not be kept next season. He's a good guy to have on the G League roster, and he's hustled his arse off, but he's just not an NBA level talent. I would have already tried to extend McRae, but that's just me.

[nate33]

I was wondering who Shannon is, as well. AP should not be kept next season. He's a good guy to have on the G League roster, and he's hustled his arse off, but he's just not an NBA level talent. I would have already tried to extend McRae, but that's just me.

I think gambitx777 was referring to Sanon, but had an autocorrect fail.

I don't get the urgency to retain Pacesniks either - other than to please Bertans. I'd be fine signing him to a 2-way again next year, but I wouldn't commit a roster spot to him so early. Who knows who will be available in the offseason?

I don't think McRae can be extended because he is on a 1-year contract.

[nate33]

This thought popped in my head as well, granted I’m not an expert on roster spots, two-way conversions etc but I’m wondering if they’ll have enough spots to keep all the guys they like for next season.

Wall
Beal
Bonga
Rui
Bryant

Ish
McRae
Brown Jr
Bertans
Wagner

Payton
Schofield
AP
Mathews

Those are 14 players who the organization seems to be interested in longterm (ie beyond this season)

We also have our 2020 1st in the high lottery and the better of a Chicago/Memphis 2nd (which should also be in the range to draft a legit contributor)

That gives us 16 names before we even get into free agency.. Sheppard has said he typically wants 14 on the active roster. It’s going to be interesting to see how they sort this out - if there was going to be a consolidation trade I wonder what that would look like .

Or I wonder if they’ll take a draft & stash with the 2nd rounder?? The 18yo Aleksej Pokuševski from Olympiacos is rising up boards and seems slated for the early 2nd round. Versatile two-way forward who stands at 7’0. They could bring him and Issuf Sanon over in a few years.

I seriously doubt the 27-year-old Payton will be on the roster next year - particularly if we draft a guard in either the 1st or 2nd round. So Payton's slot and our 15th slot will to to our two draft picks. But that means we won't be using the MLE on a vet unless someone is cut or traded. Or maybe they can convince either Mathews or our 2nd round pick to go on a 2-way contract.

[gambitx777]

For the love of.... My damn phone and it's stupid auto correct. Isaff Sanon. He's putting up good numbers and showing good D over all this season and he's 20. And AP is totally worth of being a back up 5 near the end of the bench he's solid and works hard

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Illmatic12]

This thought popped in my head as well, granted I’m not an expert on roster spots, two-way conversions etc but I’m wondering if they’ll have enough spots to keep all the guys they like for next season.

Wall
Beal
Bonga
Rui
Bryant

Ish
McRae
Brown Jr
Bertans
Wagner

Payton
Schofield
AP
Mathews

Those are 14 players who the organization seems to be interested in longterm (ie beyond this season)

We also have our 2020 1st in the high lottery and the better of a Chicago/Memphis 2nd (which should also be in the range to draft a legit contributor)

That gives us 16 names before we even get into free agency.. Sheppard has said he typically wants 14 on the active roster. It’s going to be interesting to see how they sort this out - if there was going to be a consolidation trade I wonder what that would look like .

Or I wonder if they’ll take a draft & stash with the 2nd rounder?? The 18yo Aleksej Pokuševski from Olympiacos is rising up boards and seems slated for the early 2nd round. Versatile two-way forward who stands at 7’0. They could bring him and Issuf Sanon over in a few years.

I seriously doubt the 27-year-old Payton will be on the roster next year - particularly if we draft a guard in either the 1st or 2nd round. So Payton's slot and our 15th slot will to to our two draft picks. But that means we won't be using the MLE on a vet unless someone is cut or traded. Or maybe they can convince either Mathews or our 2nd round pick to go on a 2-way contract.

Wasn’t Garrett Temple around that age when he found a home with the Wiz? Just saying, it’s still possible The Mitten can grab a role on an NBA roster.

The skillset that Payton brings (elite defensive motor/IQ/instincts/communication) is not easily found in younger players because it develops through age and experience. And on a ‘20-21 Wizards team with playoff aspirations that needs to improve their historically bad defense, its kinda necessary to have experienced & focused defensive players in the locker room + huddle + practice setting. I’m not saying Payton HAS to be one of them, but if they let him go without signing other defensive veterans to the roster I’d have to question what type of culture Sheppard wants to build.

[nate33]

Wasn’t Garrett Temple around that age when he found a home with the Wiz? Just saying, it’s still possible The Mitten can grab a role on an NBA roster.

The skillset that Payton brings (elite defensive motor/IQ/instincts/communication) is not easily found in younger players because it develops through age and experience. And on a ‘20-21 Wizards team with playoff aspirations that needs to improve their historically bad defense, its kinda necessary to have experienced & focused defensive players in the locker room + huddle + practice setting. I’m not saying Payton HAS to be one of them, but if they let him go without signing other defensive veterans to the roster I’d have to question what type of culture Sheppard wants to build.

Let's put it this way:

One of these players will be cut:
Pasecniks
Mathews
Payton
McRae

Either that, or they cut one of these guaranteed contracts:
Schofield
Bonga

Given those options, I think Payton is the odd man out. I'd take Payton over Pasecniks, but I'm assuming the team isn't leaning in that direction given their efforts to try and lock Pasecniks into a deal now.

[gambitx777]

.
So right now we have 9 players under contract next year
Wall, Beal, braynt , Smith, rui, brown, mo, bonga, admiral.
Assuming we sign AP and keep Mathews with some kind of long term deal that puts us at 11
AP, Mathews.
That leaves 4 team spots and 2 two ways.
So then you have the 2020 first, and second and Sanon to make calls on do you sign any of them or send/keep them over seas.
Then you have to make choices on
Bertains and McRae
So that's 5 players 4 spots.
2020 first, second, Sanon, bertains and McRae
Ian, It and miles will not be back.
Then you have free agents.
I think bertians and McRae could get us something in a trade at the deadline. Ian and it might get moved and miles might get cut. But there are some calls to make here on spots. Will we trade a young guy? Give up on a promising young talent ? ???

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

My dream scenario this offseason:

Draft Anthony Edwards
Trade Bryant + Hachimura + Schofield for Myles Turner
Trade Beal for Ben Simmons

New lineup:
PG Wall/Ish
SG Edwards/McRae
SF Bertans/Brown/
PF Simmons/Bertans
C Turner/Wagner

End of bench: Payton/Mathews/2020 2nd/Bonga/Pacesniks

The defense would be great with Simmons and Turner in the frontcourt. The mediocre shooting of Simmons and Wall is offset by our centers having 3-point range and Bertans' crazy floor stretching ability. Every key player except Wall is 24 or younger. We might even be able to shop Ish for assets and put Payton in as backup PG since Simmons and Brown could handle a lot of the ball handling duties when Wall is out.

[payitforward]

nate -- obviously, there's no way that's happening, so it'll be impossible to know how it would have worked out. Two things jump out at me, however:

1. Wow, has your take on Thomas Bryant shifted in just a few months! Based on 500 minutes. Or so it seems anyway. I'm especially surprised since, after a slow start, Bryant was posting much better numbers game by game when he went down with an injury.

2. I think you may be radically over-valuing Myles Turner. Here's why:

a) Offense -- on the numbers, Turner is at best an average NBA Center. I don't mean an average starter, I mean average among all the players who've played any minutes at Center this year. His usage is almost exactly average, & he's 2.3% below average in TS%. If we take into account that he turns it over a bit less than an average Center, that pushes his actual scoring efficiency back up to just about average. But... Turner gets less than 1/2 the offensive rebounds of an average NBA Center. I.e. in all, it's pushing it to suggest that he's even average offensively.

2) Defense -- of course, Turner's claim to fame is defense. You didn't want to trade for him b/c of his offensive prowess. But... I wonder whether he deserves the defensive accolades he gets? For example, an average NBA Center gets 36% more defensive rebounds than Myles Turner. He does foul a little less than an average Center. The only think that jumps out defensively is shot-blocking. That he does extremely well.

Now... this isn't "advanced analytics" or anything, so maybe there's data to suggest defensive excellence. But, I also see that his numbers haven't improved over his career & that, overall & in most categories, he's below his career average numbers this year. IOW, there's little reason to look for him to get better over time.

Yet, Myles Turner makes almost $20m a year. I don't begin to see him as worth that much $$ or anything near it.

[nate33]

nate -- obviously, there's no way that's happening, so it'll be impossible to know how it would have worked out. Two things jump out at me, however:

1. Wow, has your take on Thomas Bryant shifted in just a few months! Based on 500 minutes. Or so it seems anyway. I'm especially surprised since, after a slow start, Bryant was posting much better numbers game by game when he went down with an injury.

2. I think you may be radically over-valuing Myles Turner. Here's why:

a) Offense -- on the numbers, Turner is at best an average NBA Center. I don't mean an average starter, I mean average among all the players who've played any minutes at Center this year. His usage is almost exactly average, & he's 2.3% below average in TS%. If we take into account that he turns it over a bit less than an average Center, that pushes his actual scoring efficiency back up to just about average. But... Turner gets less than 1/2 the offensive rebounds of an average NBA Center. I.e. in all, it's pushing it to suggest that he's even average offensively.

2) Defense -- of course, Turner's claim to fame is defense. You didn't want to trade for him b/c of his offensive prowess. But... I wonder whether he deserves the defensive accolades he gets? For example, an average NBA Center gets 36% more defensive rebounds than Myles Turner. He does foul a little less than an average Center. The only think that jumps out defensively is shot-blocking. That he does extremely well.

Now... this isn't "advanced analytics" or anything, so maybe there's data to suggest defensive excellence. But, I also see that his numbers haven't improved over his career & that, overall & in most categories, he's below his career average numbers this year. IOW, there's little reason to look for him to get better over time.

Yet, Myles Turner makes almost $20m a year. I don't begin to see him as worth that much $$ or anything near it.

When I assess Myles Turner, I look at his numbers from last year when he was a starting center and did not share time with Sabonis so much. Turner from last year has a DReb% only slightly worse than Bryant (22.0% versus Bryant's 24.5%). Meanwhile he was a much more effective defender, challenging more shots than Bryant and with an opponent FG% must lower. (Bryant allows opponents to shoot 54%, Turner allowed 45.8% last year.) Turner is also a better catch-and-shoot midrange shooter, which would be the type of center that would play best alongside Simmons and Wall.

The best and brightest among NBA talent evaluators didn't pick Turner to lay on the USA Basketball team because they're idiots.

[payitforward]

"Mediocre shooting of Simmons and Wall" -- you've got 9 players by name. The other 7 are:

Bertans is a terrific shooter.
Edwards would be a rookie & unknown as a shooter.
Ish, this year & on his career, is a below average shooter.
Turner is a slightly below average shooter/scorer for an NBA Center.
Wagner's %s were regressing to the mean pretty quickly after an other-worldly beginning, so there's at least some question of confidence in his shooting numbers.
McRae's TS% this year, his breakout year, is 54.4% -- average for a SG is 54%
Brown is a terrific young player. The only part of his game that's lagging is his shooting.

I'm not trying to be argumentative -- really, I'm not. & I'd be happy to trade Beal for Simmons & to draft Edwards. Nor am I trying to hold on to Hachimura and/or Schofield. Plus, you are certainly right that we need to improve defensively.

[payitforward]

nate -- obviously, there's no way that's happening, so it'll be impossible to know how it would have worked out. Two things jump out at me, however:

1. Wow, has your take on Thomas Bryant shifted in just a few months! Based on 500 minutes. Or so it seems anyway. I'm especially surprised since, after a slow start, Bryant was posting much better numbers game by game when he went down with an injury.

2. I think you may be radically over-valuing Myles Turner. Here's why:

a) Offense -- on the numbers, Turner is at best an average NBA Center. I don't mean an average starter, I mean average among all the players who've played any minutes at Center this year. His usage is almost exactly average, & he's 2.3% below average in TS%. If we take into account that he turns it over a bit less than an average Center, that pushes his actual scoring efficiency back up to just about average. But... Turner gets less than 1/2 the offensive rebounds of an average NBA Center. I.e. in all, it's pushing it to suggest that he's even average offensively.

2) Defense -- of course, Turner's claim to fame is defense. You didn't want to trade for him b/c of his offensive prowess. But... I wonder whether he deserves the defensive accolades he gets? For example, an average NBA Center gets 36% more defensive rebounds than Myles Turner. He does foul a little less than an average Center. The only think that jumps out defensively is shot-blocking. That he does extremely well.

Now... this isn't "advanced analytics" or anything, so maybe there's data to suggest defensive excellence. But, I also see that his numbers haven't improved over his career & that, overall & in most categories, he's below his career average numbers this year. IOW, there's little reason to look for him to get better over time.

Yet, Myles Turner makes almost $20m a year. I don't begin to see him as worth that much $$ or anything near it.

When I assess Myles Turner, I look at his numbers from last year when he was a starting center and did not share time with Sabonis so much. Turner from last year has a DReb% only slightly worse than Bryant (22.0% versus Bryant's 24.5%). Meanwhile he was a much more effective defender, challenging more shots than Bryant and with an opponent FG% must lower. (Bryant allows opponents to shoot 54%, Turner allowed 45.8% last year.) Turner is also a better catch-and-shoot midrange shooter, which would be the type of center that would play best alongside Simmons and Wall.

The best and brightest among NBA talent evaluators didn't pick Turner to lay on the USA Basketball team because they're idiots.

Hey, you may be right! Certainly, I would never question whether Turner was a better defender than Bryant.

But, it's not simply about this kind of assessment, is it? Bryant is younger, has more room to grow, makes a lot less $$, & is clearly the kind of asset a rebuilding team needs. Now... Turner is only 17 months older than Bryant! But, he's played 8000 minutes & been in the league 5 years & he makes 2.4 times as much $$.

Certainly, the fact that opponents shot 8.2% lower vs. Turner than Bryant last year matters -- just as it matters that Bryant shot an 11.2% higher EFG% than Turner also matters.

Probably this comes down to where you and I think this team is right now & where it can go & how fast it can get there. I don't think we can sell youth & acquire experience & become better faster that way. It's possible that I'm being irrational! But... I do try to look carefully & objectively - & I just can't see it.